Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 23. (Read 83024 times)

TheQuin - I think we've grown used to bear markets and flash crashes, so we're slightly better at seeing the big picture.

Also I think we have fewer flash crashes.  In 2013-2015, the exchanges would be overwhelmed with orders, often stop working, and you'd have these crashes down to as low as $100 (or even $1).  Currently we've been slowly grinding down and then having faster bounces.  Like the current low of $5900-$6000.

Korea premium is around 0%.

CFTC hearings are very positive.  Chairman is not an advocate for increased regulation.

Oops.  I didn't expect it to bounce so well.  Shorts doing badly!  Though I guess we were overdue for a good bounce.  Still might be heading to 2k-3k.  But it is a bit surprising how fast we're falling.

I wouldn't short so close to a local bottom, especially not XMR and LTC. Be careful...

You set me thinking with that as my recollection was that it seemed much more violent in 2014. So I had a look back at the charts (yahoo handily now has a full history).

Have a look at the comparison.

2014


2018


I think what I was remembering was the initial sell-off for a couple of days immediately after the high was in. That's a much deeper pull-back than this time. Although what we see happening now is remarkably similar. The sell-off only lasted 3 days last time and now has been going for 5.

BitMex analysis of Ripple:

https://blog.bitmex.com/the-ripple-story/

This crash is a lot faster than 2014.  It's probably a lot easier to short.

Shorting 17.5k worth of alts.

So I'm shorting XRP, LTC, BTG, BCH, ETH, EOS, XMR, IOTA, and OMG on bitfinex.  Unfortunately only a total of 9k.  Up a lot (10% to 39%), but lost far more on my 5 remaining BTC.

Bitcoin dominance is at 36%.  It should hit at least 40% if not 45% - as we continue to bear down.

$6700 and falling.  Wow.  This is happening a bit faster than I thought.  My BTC is still locked up being lent for another day.  Hmm, if I sell BTC short and use FIFO - can I use the long term capital gains rate (eg. is it essentially selling BTC I bought in 2014/2015?).

It's falling so fast, Korea is back to having a 8% premium (over BFX, 11% over GDAX).

I'm going on a trip for a couple weeks soon. I hope we don't bottom out then because I am unlikely to have consistent internet.  I'd rather not place some blind bids.

This YouTube video with former Bitcoin maximalist Richard Heart is interesting.  He's gone over to the dark side!  He's even launching an ICO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8_1JFE_9dI

I'm thinking bitcoin will fall to 3k.  I'm shorting more alt-coins.

We tested 7.8-7.9k again (and BFX set a new recent low).

I'm starting to short a variety of alt-coins.  So far a small amount of XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, and LTC.  Currently vs the USD, so if my short position goes bad - I'll more than make up for it with my BTC holdings (unless they pump 10x).  I might sell some more BTC too.

He loves crypto currency and Elliot Waves.  Also he is on Steemit (a well disguised pyramid scheme).  "We're going to have one of the most bullish markets in the world".  Invests in wacky altcoins.  Thinks that bitcoin is falling due to FUD - not because it went up unsustainably by 10x in a year.  Hmm...  Smart guy, but he bought the hype.

This seems like huge news for Ripple, until you read the punchline. It doesn't use the XRP token!
https://www.coindesk.com/santander-uk-ripple-payment-app/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-C4zLSlBaMs

Some interesting points imho.

Does anyone do fundamentals analysis of bitcoin and/or other cryptos on YouTube? 

Ideally rational people who don't think bitcoin will replace fiat.

I sold the bottom =)

I've been watching far too much "technical analysis".  They may have called the dip to $7500, but the lack of fundamental analysis means they are missing the bigger story and are unable to advise on whether we'll dip/bear market to $5000, $3000, or even $1000-$1300.

It's pretty simple. We had this massive run-up the past 15 months. We have only fallen to the level of late November.  We could easily fall to September ($5000) or several months before.

Search trends are down. Lightning Network is unproven (and doesn't fix much if people don't want to do transactions in a violatile asset and calculate their capital gains every time they do a transaction).  

ICO bubble is still on.  Are there any good websites that track the total market cap of ICOs?  I found one announcing new ICOs, but they had 10+/day - probably a lot of minor ones that are insignificant.

Altcoin bubble is still on.

It's going to be challenging to burst these two bubbles as there is relatively little shorting of altcoins and none for ICOs.  Also a lot of the new people who go in during the past six months will still have made money even if their ICOs or alticoins fall 70%.

Korea is 6% below GDAX/BFX (who are tied).

I intend to start using Poloniex again (even though the rates are already back to lower levels).

I don´t know if you have read it already, but apparently they are being bought
by Circle:
https://modernconsensus.com/2018/02/02/circle-set-acquire-poloniex/

Circle has raised nearly 200M $ in venture capital and is well connected
to the relevant regulatory entities (e.g. they were the very first company
to get one of the BitLicenses from NY back in the day).

Tempted to move money back to GDAX, to try and arbitrage the BFX/GDAX difference.  Currently the premium is down to 0.25% - and it's been spiking to 2-4%.

Also looks like BTC rates are spiking on Poloniex to 0.35%+/day.

Sold half my ETH (eg. 0.7 ETH) at $870.
Sold the other half at $900.

You can short Ripple on BFX for 0.04% APR (plus the much larger trading fees).  Someone is actually trying to lend out 4 million XRP at 0.0001%/day (1/36th of the FRR rate).  And I already had a low opinion of XRP investors

Not only are the Active USD swaps falling, but the inactive ones are falling too.  Someone has removed $200+ million from the lending market.

Korean premium has fallen vs everything, and is now a negative premium.

I was watching the charts at 1am - 5 am EST, thinking about how we could see a crash down to $7500 within the next 24 hours. Well that proved half-right.  Instead of the flash crash, we had a slower grind down.  And then had a fast recovery.  Apparently this is very bullish (possible trend reversal).  At a minimum, we didn't crash down towards $5k or less.

GDAX bounced off 7540 which is amazing considering several people were predicting that (Tone Vays and others).  Though Bitfinex bounced off 7960.   That wide spread is now down to 1%.

I'm so bearish I might be selling, if my BTC wasn't locked up being lent out (0.06%/day - not bad).  I'm also thinking about shorting alt-coins, but that generally hasn't worked for me...  What are the best alt-coins to short that have margin trading on BFX?  I'm guessing the better it is to short long term, the more likely it is to pump - so that is always risky.  At some point the pump and dump groups are going to call it quits or transform into shorters (dump and pump?).

They'v got ETH, ETH classic, LTC, Zcash, Monero, Ripple, Dash, Iota, EOS, Santiment, OmiseGo, BitcoinCash, NEO, ETP, Eldoo and Bitcoin Gold.