I'm thinking about setting up a PA state LLC (single propreitorship) as Bitfinex says they will allow US corporate customers to continue to use their services.
Looks like it costs $200 startup and $70 every ten years maintenance. By contrast, off-shore corporations in Belize are $1000-$2000 startup and possibly $1000 annual maintenance.
For tax purposes, it looks like I would just declare the income on my Schedule C (as I don't have any employees or sales that would be taxable). Or perhaps because it is interest income I can report it on the personal interest income. I don't want to pay the 15.6% self employment tax.
https://ttlc.intuit.com/questions/2902651-how-where-do-i-report-interest-income-from-my-business-banking-account-sole-proprietor-llc-paid-to-an-ein-that-isn-t-my-ssn
I'm doing very well lending out USD at BFX currently at 0.2%/day (or 0.17% after fees). I expect rates to remain high through the November 13 (approximately) fork.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 31. (Read 83024 times)
People buying bitcoin to get the 2X coins are idiots. Just as likely for the sum of Bitcoin and 2X coin to go down (of course unless everyone buys the hype!). Some day the hype isn't going to work =)
I was sad that nobody was livestreaming the bullish surge from 5000 to almost 6000 (I checked Youtube).
I was sad that nobody was livestreaming the bullish surge from 5000 to almost 6000 (I checked Youtube).
BTC new ATH of 5400.
It's just so insane that I really don't know what to say. It's especially high considering the upcoming November 13-14 (approximately) 2X hardfork. The last hard fork might be setting us up to under-estimate the damage that it will cause - especially if there is no clear majority as to what side will win and if there is no replay protection.
Some people may be buying up just to get 2X coins too; it seemingly happened the last time a fork like this was scheduled (BU). We're back in the green, at least temporarily, but who knows how long we will be here... It's just so insane that I really don't know what to say. It's especially high considering the upcoming November 13-14 (approximately) 2X hardfork. The last hard fork might be setting us up to under-estimate the damage that it will cause - especially if there is no clear majority as to what side will win and if there is no replay protection.
... The last hard fork might be setting us up to under-estimate the damage that it will cause - especially if there is no clear majority as to what side will win and if there is no replay protection.
In my opinion it can´t be completely ruled out that the SegWit2x fork will be cancelled. If you take a look at
the recently mined blocks you can see that several mining pools don´t signal for SegWit2x (https://coin.dance/blocks):
-Slush Pool
-F2Pool
-Bitcoin Russia
Additionally, the pools controlled by or affiliated with Bitmain are kind of unpredictable in my opinion.
It is possible that additional supporters will drop out in the next weeks. If that would happen I can´t imagine
that they will go ahead with the fork when it is clear that support is not high enough.
BTC new ATH of 5400.
It's just so insane that I really don't know what to say. It's especially high considering the upcoming November 13-14 (approximately) 2X hardfork. The last hard fork might be setting us up to under-estimate the damage that it will cause - especially if there is no clear majority as to what side will win and if there is no replay protection.
It's just so insane that I really don't know what to say. It's especially high considering the upcoming November 13-14 (approximately) 2X hardfork. The last hard fork might be setting us up to under-estimate the damage that it will cause - especially if there is no clear majority as to what side will win and if there is no replay protection.
Bitfinex continues to go off the deep end into the world of new and ever so tempting financial (aka gambling) instruments with their new chain split tokens based on SegWit2X (BT2) and the original bitcoin (BT1).
BT1 is currently trading at 75% of BTC. A very round number. Volume is low.
So traders are predicting that the original bitcoin will win, and I believe that is the way to go - mostly because you don't want to annoy the bitcoin core developers (none of whom support 2X), it looks like we can give SegWit and the Lightning Network a chance to handle transactions (and there is evidence that the miners were maliciously spamming transactions).
But we're going to need to see some of the major players in the original NYA change their position pretty fast, otherwise we'll get 2x.
This has odds too on whether the 2X chain will be the largest - and it is pretty high (56% to 69%). Some kind of arbitrage might be possible with Fairlay and Bitfinex.
https://old.fairlay.com/market/will-a-block-larger-than-1mb-be-mined-before-january-1-2018/
BT1 is currently trading at 75% of BTC. A very round number. Volume is low.
So traders are predicting that the original bitcoin will win, and I believe that is the way to go - mostly because you don't want to annoy the bitcoin core developers (none of whom support 2X), it looks like we can give SegWit and the Lightning Network a chance to handle transactions (and there is evidence that the miners were maliciously spamming transactions).
But we're going to need to see some of the major players in the original NYA change their position pretty fast, otherwise we'll get 2x.
This has odds too on whether the 2X chain will be the largest - and it is pretty high (56% to 69%). Some kind of arbitrage might be possible with Fairlay and Bitfinex.
https://old.fairlay.com/market/will-a-block-larger-than-1mb-be-mined-before-january-1-2018/
...
I watched a recent Tone Vays video and he, who is normally very bullish, was saying that the mempool is now very low and that it might have been spammed all this time by big blockers (or others) - and thus the fundamental of how many people use bitcoin is vastly over-stated...
I watched a recent Tone Vays video and he, who is normally very bullish, was saying that the mempool is now very low and that it might have been spammed all this time by big blockers (or others) - and thus the fundamental of how many people use bitcoin is vastly over-stated...
I share the same sentiment.
Have you read this article regarding the spam attacks?
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/curious-case-bitcoins-moby-dick-spam-and-miners-confirmed-it/
Great article! Are the miners able to spam the blockchain and pay lower transaction fees by mining their own transactions? Or at least they get some of the money back if they mine the block. It still seems like it'd be a bit expensive to spam the block chain. Maybe they were using transaction fees that were 1/10 or even less of the median fee.
Michael of BoxMining (YouTube channel) makes an excellent point that there is a strong bias towards "survivors" aka "winners" in the crypto markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N01jgDx0sQ0
So you will see many people telling stories about losing some of their money to a scam, hack, alt-coin, bitcoin bear market, etc. However you are seeing a much smaller fraction of these than you are of the winner stories. We might also be seeing a lot of stories of people who lost some money, but then more than made up for their losses on the latest bull market.
Would I be still posting if Bitcoin was at $200 and I'd lost thousands of dollars? I doubt it.
It is totally possible that we have a bear market and most investors are deep in the negative, and then leave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N01jgDx0sQ0
So you will see many people telling stories about losing some of their money to a scam, hack, alt-coin, bitcoin bear market, etc. However you are seeing a much smaller fraction of these than you are of the winner stories. We might also be seeing a lot of stories of people who lost some money, but then more than made up for their losses on the latest bull market.
Would I be still posting if Bitcoin was at $200 and I'd lost thousands of dollars? I doubt it.
It is totally possible that we have a bear market and most investors are deep in the negative, and then leave.
...
I watched a recent Tone Vays video and he, who is normally very bullish, was saying that the mempool is now very low and that it might have been spammed all this time by big blockers (or others) - and thus the fundamental of how many people use bitcoin is vastly over-stated...
I watched a recent Tone Vays video and he, who is normally very bullish, was saying that the mempool is now very low and that it might have been spammed all this time by big blockers (or others) - and thus the fundamental of how many people use bitcoin is vastly over-stated...
I share the same sentiment.
Have you read this article regarding the spam attacks?
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/curious-case-bitcoins-moby-dick-spam-and-miners-confirmed-it/
Aside from the spam attack the lack of genuine growth in daily transactions
could also be explained by the 2017 bull market. Who wants to buy a good
with BTC when Bitcoin´s value is increasing all the time.
People, who used to buy something with their BTC from time to time simply started
to hold their coins (or at least a higher percentage of their stash) due to the price increase.
South Korea bans ICOs.
Bitfinex has 175 million in USD swaps. When I started lending it was only 500k (April 2013). And $35 million unused swaps most offered at 0.043%/day. Now perhaps only 75% is being used to long BTC, but this is still a ton.
I watched a recent Tone Vays video and he, who is normally very bullish, was saying that the mempool is now very low and that it might have been spammed all this time by big blockers (or others) - and thus the fundamental of how many people use bitcoin is vastly over-stated. He is much more of a technical analysis person, but he implied that we had greatly overshot the fundamentals!
So far the Bitcoin Gold hard fork hasn't much attention, outside of a couple YouTubers. That is coming up before the November hard fork I think.
Bitfinex has 175 million in USD swaps. When I started lending it was only 500k (April 2013). And $35 million unused swaps most offered at 0.043%/day. Now perhaps only 75% is being used to long BTC, but this is still a ton.
I watched a recent Tone Vays video and he, who is normally very bullish, was saying that the mempool is now very low and that it might have been spammed all this time by big blockers (or others) - and thus the fundamental of how many people use bitcoin is vastly over-stated. He is much more of a technical analysis person, but he implied that we had greatly overshot the fundamentals!
So far the Bitcoin Gold hard fork hasn't much attention, outside of a couple YouTubers. That is coming up before the November hard fork I think.
With this healthy bounce back to 4100 (currently), I'm thinking that we're back in bull mode and it's going to take a major event like the SEC acting against ICOs, or the upcoming November 2x hard fork (especially if it comes without replay protection) to drag down the crypto markets.
I tried arbitraging GDAX and BFX again. I recalculated that I need around a 1.01% or greater difference to make up for the fees. So there was a 1.5% gap which then narrowed to 0.2% within 12-20 hours and I was able to send my money back to BFX.
However, when sending the money back I got caught with a 4 hour delay at GDAX. I can see why people complain. GDAX says "Completed" on the withdrawal even if they haven't started to send it on the blockchain. They also do not let you cancel a withdrawal. They also have an estimated time which is a lie (they were using the current time - and it was the same for my current withdrawal as for one that I did 10 days ago).
I was a bit worried that I might have lost the coins!
Fortunately during this delay the price went up 5% =)
I don't know anything about Mercado. There are a lot of tiny exchanges that have larger arbitrage gaps, but you'd need to setup an account which is probably hard if you aren't a resident of the country. It is extremely unlikely that there would be an easy way to make more than a 1-5% profit doing arbitrage. Larger players may have some advantages with lower fees from the exchanges and also if they use international wires (which are an absolute cost). On the other hand, they have increased slippage.
However, when sending the money back I got caught with a 4 hour delay at GDAX. I can see why people complain. GDAX says "Completed" on the withdrawal even if they haven't started to send it on the blockchain. They also do not let you cancel a withdrawal. They also have an estimated time which is a lie (they were using the current time - and it was the same for my current withdrawal as for one that I did 10 days ago).
I was a bit worried that I might have lost the coins!
Fortunately during this delay the price went up 5% =)
I don't know anything about Mercado. There are a lot of tiny exchanges that have larger arbitrage gaps, but you'd need to setup an account which is probably hard if you aren't a resident of the country. It is extremely unlikely that there would be an easy way to make more than a 1-5% profit doing arbitrage. Larger players may have some advantages with lower fees from the exchanges and also if they use international wires (which are an absolute cost). On the other hand, they have increased slippage.
...
Maybe the professional arbitragers are most focused on the USD/China difference. Currently a $600 gap which would make it worthwhile for even me to fly to China with a bag of cash if I could pull it off.
Maybe the professional arbitragers are most focused on the USD/China difference. Currently a $600 gap which would make it worthwhile for even me to fly to China with a bag of cash if I could pull it off.
Yes, the USD/China difference is probably the biggest arbitrage opportunity right now, if you have an already verified
Chinese exchange account at your disposal (otherwise it is probably not possible to verify an account right now with
the upcoming shutdowns) or have some other way of buying BTC in China.
Are you only arbitraging GDAX and BFX when the opportunity arises?
Interestingly, the gap between BFX and an exchange from Brazil (Mercado Bitcoin) is even bigger than the gap between USD/China
(in the other direction, therefore you wouldn´t even need to bring a bag of cash).
I don't know details, but I'd stay far away from BTC-E or any successors.
I should have stayed up last night and arbitraged BFX/Gdax as there was a 2-3.5% gap! Of course after the biggest gap, the price fell - so that would have been bad. But there was a good window of opportunity after the price had fallen. I almost had most of my funds out of swap lending too as I was hoping for an arbitrage opportunity that would exceed the value of swap lending. But 2 days ago, I put most of the money back into swaps.
The last major arbitrage (BFX/GDAX) opportunity was on Labor Day in the US. I wonder if they are correlated with days that don't have bank wires or if major traders/arbitragers are taking off holidays? This last opportunity was a Friday night (in the US), so I'm hoping we'll see another one this weekend.
While BFX doesn't get international wires itself, it might get it indirectly via Tether? I don't know.
You also need big price movements for arbitrage opportunities.
Maybe the professional arbitragers are most focused on the USD/China difference. Currently a $600 gap which would make it worthwhile for even me to fly to China with a bag of cash if I could pull it off.
I should have stayed up last night and arbitraged BFX/Gdax as there was a 2-3.5% gap! Of course after the biggest gap, the price fell - so that would have been bad. But there was a good window of opportunity after the price had fallen. I almost had most of my funds out of swap lending too as I was hoping for an arbitrage opportunity that would exceed the value of swap lending. But 2 days ago, I put most of the money back into swaps.
The last major arbitrage (BFX/GDAX) opportunity was on Labor Day in the US. I wonder if they are correlated with days that don't have bank wires or if major traders/arbitragers are taking off holidays? This last opportunity was a Friday night (in the US), so I'm hoping we'll see another one this weekend.
While BFX doesn't get international wires itself, it might get it indirectly via Tether? I don't know.
You also need big price movements for arbitrage opportunities.
Maybe the professional arbitragers are most focused on the USD/China difference. Currently a $600 gap which would make it worthwhile for even me to fly to China with a bag of cash if I could pull it off.
What is your opinion regarding the relaunched BTC-E?
https://wex.nz/news/1
Currently the crypto prices are inflated compared to all other exchanges, which creates a tremendous
arbitrage opportunity - if you are actually able to get funds out of Wex. Roughly 15-20 % are possible
at the moment depending on the crypto and the particular exchange you use for the other side of the trade.
Besides, it could be a potentially profitable move to buy some of the issued tokens. After all these exchanges
make a fortune, so I´d expect them to eventually reimburse everybody.
https://wex.nz/news/1
Currently the crypto prices are inflated compared to all other exchanges, which creates a tremendous
arbitrage opportunity - if you are actually able to get funds out of Wex. Roughly 15-20 % are possible
at the moment depending on the crypto and the particular exchange you use for the other side of the trade.
Besides, it could be a potentially profitable move to buy some of the issued tokens. After all these exchanges
make a fortune, so I´d expect them to eventually reimburse everybody.
As Chinese traders wake up - BTC 3300 in the USD markets, but only 2900 in China.
BTC down to 3250 (down 34% from peak) as BTCC says it will close on Sept 30 for Chinese traders.
https://www.coindesk.com/btcc-to-cease-china-trading-as-media-warns-closures-could-continue/
BoxMining has good insight into China. Thinks the ban might be temporary:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td-sqHRKBUY
I'm prepared to arbitrage BFX / GDAX, but so far there is only a $10-$30 difference.
https://www.coindesk.com/btcc-to-cease-china-trading-as-media-warns-closures-could-continue/
BoxMining has good insight into China. Thinks the ban might be temporary:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td-sqHRKBUY
I'm prepared to arbitrage BFX / GDAX, but so far there is only a $10-$30 difference.
The Bitfinex trading system might be better than the others (less downtime, faster response, better UI). Bitfinex has a pretty long and decent track record. BFX sometimes has lower prices than other exchanges (and sometimes higher).
That said, I haven't researched the details about the Tether debate. I'd love to see two smart people debate it on Youtube (with evidence).
It does make sense that the Tether USD balance sheet should sometimes shrink. Though if they are averaging it over time, it could go straight up. For instance, BFX USD swap has been going straight up if you use a weekly average I think.
That said, I haven't researched the details about the Tether debate. I'd love to see two smart people debate it on Youtube (with evidence).
It does make sense that the Tether USD balance sheet should sometimes shrink. Though if they are averaging it over time, it could go straight up. For instance, BFX USD swap has been going straight up if you use a weekly average I think.
I suspect the Tether rumors are coming from people who dislike Bitfinex. Previously there were rumors/FUD about them still using the Bitcoinica code - when in fact I think they stopped using it in 2013.
I suspect some people are very angry about the Bitfinex hack. They sold for 25 cents on the dollar and are upset that we haven't even had a good report on it, whereas other people who held on got reimbursed fully (and the stock is now worth $2?)
I think it is in Bitfinex's long term self interest to be honest. They are making a ton of money and don't need to cook the books.
Conspiracy theorists often like to come up with complex explanations for things that are simple. For instance look at people who try to explain that ponzi schemes could actually be making 1%/day running a real business. In this case, it is easy for an exchange to add money to their database without it being backed by anything. MtGox probably did this. So why use Tether?
I suspect some people are very angry about the Bitfinex hack. They sold for 25 cents on the dollar and are upset that we haven't even had a good report on it, whereas other people who held on got reimbursed fully (and the stock is now worth $2?)
I think it is in Bitfinex's long term self interest to be honest. They are making a ton of money and don't need to cook the books.
Conspiracy theorists often like to come up with complex explanations for things that are simple. For instance look at people who try to explain that ponzi schemes could actually be making 1%/day running a real business. In this case, it is easy for an exchange to add money to their database without it being backed by anything. MtGox probably did this. So why use Tether?
Thank you for your detailed reply.
I tend to agree with you on all of this.
However, I have a follow-up question, which was also part of the rumors. Let´s assume you are an institutional investor based in Asia with an aim
to invest 20 million $ in the crypto markets.
Why would you buy Tether and send them to Bitfinex or one of the other exchanges that has USDT trading pairs when you can skip
Tether and simply wire your funds directly to one of the many exchanges that has working banking relationships?
Using Bank -> Tether -> Exchange seems to be a lot more dangerous due to increased counterparty risk compared to using
Bank -> Exchange.
Besides, it is interesting to see that the Tether supply (according to the official Tether homepage) never decreased - all it has ever done is go
up historically. If Tether was indeed a legit operation you would assume that sometimes people cash out their Tether and therefore
decrease the total supply of Tethers. But this never happened.
I'm surprised by how healthy the bounce is. It might even be too healthy and indicate that we're still in a rampant bull market.
While we can survive without China ICOs, I think the larger crackdown is coming from the US and others. It could take a year, but eventually it should have a big impact - especially on Ether and the ICO tokens.
While we can survive without China ICOs, I think the larger crackdown is coming from the US and others. It could take a year, but eventually it should have a big impact - especially on Ether and the ICO tokens.
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