I'm lending BTC on Poloniex for up to 3.1%/day. If I get two days of that before the August 1 hard fork (12:00 pm on UTC time), I think the 5-6% return will exceed the value of the Bitcoin Cash coins.
Also, if Bitcoin Cash amounts to anything much - Poloniex might distribute them. Their official policy is uncommitted, but I could see them becoming more committed if they are worth a lot.
And if people stop borrowing my money at high rates, I can move it to Bitfinex or a local wallet to get the Bitcoin Cash. Bitfinex is easier, but they might only give you a fraction of your bitcoin cash coins due to the weird way they are handling shorts/longs.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 33. (Read 83088 times)
At Bitfinex you can see $2 million steps in the USD swap asks. Presumably from the USD Swap Whale. Meanwhile swap is down by $12 million, but the amount available is still the same ($33 million). Looks managed.
https://bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd
Poloniex BTC swap rates are high (0.2%/day+) probably due to fears about August 1 hard fork. They aren't saying whether they will give out Bitcoin Cash (though I'd guess they would if it turns into a serious coin). Anyways, I'm planning on moving my BTC to Bitfinex to make sure I get the Bitcoin Cash.
I think the Bitcoin Cash coin won't amount to much. Unlike Ethereum Classic, this new coin is on the wrong side of a hard fork (Ethereum Classic stayed on the main chain). So many people will try to sell it on August 1. This will be partially limited by the lack of exchanges where you can sell.
https://bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd
Poloniex BTC swap rates are high (0.2%/day+) probably due to fears about August 1 hard fork. They aren't saying whether they will give out Bitcoin Cash (though I'd guess they would if it turns into a serious coin). Anyways, I'm planning on moving my BTC to Bitfinex to make sure I get the Bitcoin Cash.
I think the Bitcoin Cash coin won't amount to much. Unlike Ethereum Classic, this new coin is on the wrong side of a hard fork (Ethereum Classic stayed on the main chain). So many people will try to sell it on August 1. This will be partially limited by the lack of exchanges where you can sell.
This security firm insights are interesting. Apparently the Willy bot was real.
http://blog.wizsec.jp/2017/07/breaking-open-mtgox-1.html
http://blog.wizsec.jp/2017/07/breaking-open-mtgox-1.html
This could be the beginning of the end for ICOs:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/u-s-signals-clampdown-on-red-hot-digital-coin-offerings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/u-s-signals-clampdown-on-red-hot-digital-coin-offerings
BFX USD swaps at $89 million AND there is another $33 million on offer at high rates (0.2%/day to 1%/day). It's pretty interesting that much money is sitting on the exchange without earning money (unless there is a rate spike).
Bitcoin is up around 25% in the past 24 hours which is the greatest rate of increase possibly since the Coinbase Nov 2015 bull market, or maybe even greater than that.
Lots of bitcoin future blocksize/segwit drama. Down to 1820 and then now back up to 2700.
Possibly a good spike as Segwit activation locks in or as/if it happens. Possibly a large decline after it happens, and/or after the ICOs and altcoins collapse.
BFX USD swaps new ATH of $84 million, up $8 million in the past 24 hours. And either eating the BFX USD swap whale or they removed part of their ask wall. So rates are (probably temporarily) spiking to 0.3%/day or more.
Possibly a good spike as Segwit activation locks in or as/if it happens. Possibly a large decline after it happens, and/or after the ICOs and altcoins collapse.
BFX USD swaps new ATH of $84 million, up $8 million in the past 24 hours. And either eating the BFX USD swap whale or they removed part of their ask wall. So rates are (probably temporarily) spiking to 0.3%/day or more.
BFX USD swap rate is effectively at 0.039%/day and falling/crashing.
I was figuring that you could short the ICOs on Poloniex, but does Poloniex only offer margin trading for around 10-15 things? That's what it looks like at my account (though I'm not an experienced Poloniex trader - so I figured the option might be hiding in settings or something).
If so, this helps explain the ICO boom (and alt-coin boom) as people who might want to short them cannot easily do so. In a similar fashion, margin trading for Bitcoin was under-developed in the 2013 boom (Bitfinex offered it - though the system was new, unstable at times, and the amount of available margin funding was much lower than now).
If most of the other alt-coins and ICOs cannot be shorted, the best way to short might be to short Ethereum. I think BTC will also go down when the ICOs crash, but that could be smaller.
...
If there is any where I could short Augur (REP), let me know!
If so, this helps explain the ICO boom (and alt-coin boom) as people who might want to short them cannot easily do so. In a similar fashion, margin trading for Bitcoin was under-developed in the 2013 boom (Bitfinex offered it - though the system was new, unstable at times, and the amount of available margin funding was much lower than now).
If most of the other alt-coins and ICOs cannot be shorted, the best way to short might be to short Ethereum. I think BTC will also go down when the ICOs crash, but that could be smaller.
...
If there is any where I could short Augur (REP), let me know!
Apparently Bitbet.us earned 28.66 BTC in 2015-2016 (or $30,000 at the highest BTC valuation for that period) - so volume of 2866 BTC ($3 million at the most) and a 1% fee. Augur will benefit from shareholders promoting it, but $1 billion in volume is quite the stretch.
Bitbet.us was sold for 86 BTC, 3 times P/E according to this post in April 2016:
http://www.contravex.com/2016/04/07/that-time-i-let-outright-ownership-of-bitbet-slip-through-my-fingers/
Also the new owner increased the Bitbet.us fee to 2%. I think it is hilariously stupid when people justify this by saying they are "buying/renting new servers" when clearly they just want your money and most of the time the servers are less than 10% of their costs.
If Augur were to do $10 million volume, they'd earn $100k (or maybe 200k if they double fees), and the company would be worth around $300k at a 3 P/E ratio (or 1 million at a 10 P/E ratio). So it is possible that they are over-valued by as much as 1000. Now they'll probably do a better job of publicizing the website than bitbet.us former owner Mircea Popescu did (he is a very strange person - see his blog on trilema.com).
Bitbet.us was sold for 86 BTC, 3 times P/E according to this post in April 2016:
http://www.contravex.com/2016/04/07/that-time-i-let-outright-ownership-of-bitbet-slip-through-my-fingers/
Also the new owner increased the Bitbet.us fee to 2%. I think it is hilariously stupid when people justify this by saying they are "buying/renting new servers" when clearly they just want your money and most of the time the servers are less than 10% of their costs.
If Augur were to do $10 million volume, they'd earn $100k (or maybe 200k if they double fees), and the company would be worth around $300k at a 3 P/E ratio (or 1 million at a 10 P/E ratio). So it is possible that they are over-valued by as much as 1000. Now they'll probably do a better job of publicizing the website than bitbet.us former owner Mircea Popescu did (he is a very strange person - see his blog on trilema.com).
Augur was overvalued at $8, now trading for $29. It's also competing with Gnosis.
https://blog.coinfund.io/a-sane-model-for-pricing-augur-rep-tokens-32dbd9db5f6
I like prediction markets, but the fees might end up even lower than 1% if there is a lot of competition. What are the current Bitcoin casino/betting fees at? They had stabilized at 1% last time I checked a couple years ago - so maybe users aren't rational enough and prefer features over fees. Or maybe betters are less rational than predictors. Or maybe having market makers is more important to reduce the bid/ask spread.
If you have $1 billion in bets at 1% fee you make $10 million, which will pay back your Augur investors in 30 years. That's an extremely long wait for a crypto currency that faces risks of hackers, regulation, competition, and more. And $1 billion in bets seems high.
https://blog.coinfund.io/a-sane-model-for-pricing-augur-rep-tokens-32dbd9db5f6
I like prediction markets, but the fees might end up even lower than 1% if there is a lot of competition. What are the current Bitcoin casino/betting fees at? They had stabilized at 1% last time I checked a couple years ago - so maybe users aren't rational enough and prefer features over fees. Or maybe betters are less rational than predictors. Or maybe having market makers is more important to reduce the bid/ask spread.
If you have $1 billion in bets at 1% fee you make $10 million, which will pay back your Augur investors in 30 years. That's an extremely long wait for a crypto currency that faces risks of hackers, regulation, competition, and more. And $1 billion in bets seems high.
Of course hedge fund managers don't lose money when their fund goes to zero. I think they take a cut of the profits and I'm not sure what they do if they have negative returns - probably earn zero. So for profit-maximizer, they'd want to manage the riskiest fund possible (except for the damage to their reputation).
http://www.coindesk.com/100-million-pantera-capital-ico-hedge-fund/
http://www.coindesk.com/100-million-pantera-capital-ico-hedge-fund/
This site has lending rates. Note be careful where you lend! Do your own research!
https://coinlend.de/#!History:BTC
https://coinlend.de/#!History:BTC
Bifinex has USD swap walls of 15 million at FRR (around 0.15%) and 20 million at 0.75%. I think it is a BFX friendly whale that is trying to maximize profit, while not driving lending rates down too much. For instance, nobody tries to lend most of their money at 0.75% to maximize profit - you do it to ensure that the rates don't spike and that there isn't a crisis caused when swaps stop automatically renewing.
It's the Bitfinex Swap Whale that has been around for at least one year. Not as exciting as a regular Bitcoin whale, unless you have most of your money in swaps (which I now do).
Now all of this is speculation, but why else would they be doing this? It's also possible that the whale is Bitfinex itself and they are investing their profits into swap. Bitfinex has done $6 billion USD in volume in the past 30 days. So I don't think they have $35 million to invest, but they should have $5-$10 million.
It's the Bitfinex Swap Whale that has been around for at least one year. Not as exciting as a regular Bitcoin whale, unless you have most of your money in swaps (which I now do).
Now all of this is speculation, but why else would they be doing this? It's also possible that the whale is Bitfinex itself and they are investing their profits into swap. Bitfinex has done $6 billion USD in volume in the past 30 days. So I don't think they have $35 million to invest, but they should have $5-$10 million.
I might be very wrong about my attempting to analyze the crashes (and figure out whether the bull market is over).
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/6hdrcj/bitcoin_bubble_bear_traps_yet_again/
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/6hdrcj/bitcoin_bubble_bear_traps_yet_again/
I think $3000 was the peak of the bull market and we're now in a bear market for several months to two years. Of course I earlier said "2700 is the top" 
So what do I know? I'm saying this based on the 30% decline from the peak. Though in China the decline is much smaller.
Bifinex: 3000 to 2050 (31.7%)
Bitstamp: 2980 to 2120 (28.9%)
Coinbase: 3000 to 2100 (30%)
Okcoin: 21200 to 16761 (20.9%)
The severity of the bear market might depend on how much the ICOs and alt-coins crash, and also not just the Bitcoin developer/future/miner conflict - but the level of rhetoric around it.
The fast rise of the alt-coins points to 1) Bitcoin can be replaced (at least temporarily), and 2) that they could fall 95%.
So what do I know? I'm saying this based on the 30% decline from the peak. Though in China the decline is much smaller.Bifinex: 3000 to 2050 (31.7%)
Bitstamp: 2980 to 2120 (28.9%)
Coinbase: 3000 to 2100 (30%)
Okcoin: 21200 to 16761 (20.9%)
The severity of the bear market might depend on how much the ICOs and alt-coins crash, and also not just the Bitcoin developer/future/miner conflict - but the level of rhetoric around it.
The fast rise of the alt-coins points to 1) Bitcoin can be replaced (at least temporarily), and 2) that they could fall 95%.
The enthusiasm gap between bitcoin and ethereum is large. It's also fascinating how much BTC has gone up given this lack of enthusiasm.
http://www.coindesk.com/charts-enthusiasm-ethereum-hit-time-high-q1/
http://www.coindesk.com/charts-enthusiasm-ethereum-hit-time-high-q1/
Bitcoin is the alt-coin trading bridge of choice. That's the most important reason Bitcoin probably went up lately, together with other factors such as good news from Australia, Japan, etc. I think we should take into account that Bitcoin's appreciation has a lot to do with its actual use as a bridge for trading altcoins, instead of it's (nearly exclusive) speculative use with regard to actual payments. In that sense, not much has still changed since 2013.
Bitcoin has appreciated by about a factor of 3, while other altcoins, among which ETH and XRP, have appreciated much more rapidly in the same 2017 timespan. Bitcoin dropped from about 85-90% market dominance to 38% today. In just a couple of months, it lost the dominance it had for years.
I think everyone should pay attention to that.
The enthusiasm gap between bitcoin and ethereum is large. It's also fascinating how much BTC has gone up given this lack of enthusiasm.
http://www.coindesk.com/charts-enthusiasm-ethereum-hit-time-high-q1/
http://www.coindesk.com/charts-enthusiasm-ethereum-hit-time-high-q1/
Another ICO. Sells out before they even offer their token/shares.
http://www.coindesk.com/civics-ico-pre-sale-sells-out-but-crowd-to-get-second-chance/
http://www.coindesk.com/civics-ico-pre-sale-sells-out-but-crowd-to-get-second-chance/
$150 million for an ICO, hmm
http://www.coindesk.com/150-million-tim-draper-backed-bancor-completes-largest-ever-ico/
Bitfinex crashes 24% today. Other exchanges are more like 15%.
http://www.coindesk.com/150-million-tim-draper-backed-bancor-completes-largest-ever-ico/
Bitfinex crashes 24% today. Other exchanges are more like 15%.
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