Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 35. (Read 83088 times)

If Bitfinex adds Dogecoin, get ready for a general crash.

The BFX 2220 ATH was replaced by a 2222.2 ATH.

We might be getting near the end of the bubble. I'd expect a sharp spike/acceleration upwards - maybe 15% (averaged over at least three major exchanges) in a 24 hour period.  Followed by a medium term (possibly long term) bear market that involves a series of faster spikes downwards.  There will be fake recoveries, but we could get into a bear market for anywhere from 6 months to 2 years.

Or we could implement Lightning Network (and Segwit) and if it alleviates the transaction problem that could be enough to sustain higher values.  Though currently it looks like we're still a long way (6 months to 2-3 years) from that happening.

Bitfinex price hits 2220 (note the triple "2").  I was thinking it might hit 2222 on Tuesday =)

BFX USD swaps are up $5 million in the past 24 hours (possibly a record?) to a ATH of $52.6 million.  So probably a whale lender.  We'll see how fast the rates fall (might not happen if we continue going up 10%/week).  I wonder if the whale lender is Bitfinex itself?  They could be lending out their extra funds - and they're probably making a killer profit with the current bull market.

Coinbase has a $80 premium over Bitfinex (and other USD markets). That's a sign of super bullish/bubblish sentiment.

I guess you don't like ICOs?

Revised recommendations (rewrite of the original post #2)
1) Medium risk - loan swap USD at Bitfinex at the flash return rate.  Expected 10-20% APR.  The current APR is much higher (0.15%/day. There is a chance you will lose all the money - but the chance is worth it.  My risk assessment of Bitfinex is that they are more reliable than most other bitcoin corporations.

2) High risk - go long on Bitcoin.  Hold for two years or more (previously one year, but at these high prices I think you'll want to be prepared to hold for 2+ years).  Do not day trade.  If you are starting at zero investment in BTC, you might want to cost-average the buy-in over six months.


Dropped Negative Recommendations
Do not loan BTC at Bitfinex.   2% APR is not worth the risk. (New recommendation: the rate is regularly hitting 0.05%-0.08%/day - and that risk is worth it).
 
Do not invest in altcoins.  Bitcoin is 90% of the market and shows signs of a natural monopoly due to the network effect.  (New recommendation: it looks like crypto currency has got so large that there is room for multiple crypto currencies. That said, I'm extremely skeptical about the current value of alt-coins - maybe preparing to buy on a 80-90% extended bear market / dip is a good idea, but I also haven't researched them enough to know which ones are the best value.)


Continued negative recommendations
Do not invest in mining. I'm very unqualified to evaluate this, but it looks like mining is now a game for big organizations with experience, cheap labor, and cheap electricity. Be extra skeptical of any proposal for "cloud mining".  Investing in mining is effectively trading bitcoins on the margin (which I am also very skeptical about doing).

Do not invest in any business that offers shares for bitcoins.

This graph of total crypto market cap is pretty bubbly.  Especially the alt-coins.
http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

BFX touched $2000!  And OkCoin hit 12000 ($1750 USD).

BFX swap rates show some signs of going super high (aka the max of 0.75%/day), but nothing proven yet.  It'd be interesting if they go above that and people are forced to close positions. But probably enough people have long term loans (30 days) that it won't be a big deal.

Bitfinex premium is back. $60 over Coinbase. So while BFX hit another ATH, the other USD markets aren't reacting as strongly.

I've had a long standing theory that BFX USD swap rates were capped at around 0.07%/day (I think that is the number?) by one or more large lenders who could increase USD supply at a very fast rate.   The fact that they kept rates relatively high was either due to their own opinion of risk (which turned out to be accurate if true - as this was before BFX was hacked), or due to an arrangement with BFX - perhaps a gentleman's agreement, not to completely drive out all the other swap lenders by not flooding the market with supply.  If they'd have flooded the supply, the rates could possibly fall to 0.02%/day.  Or maybe they were maximizing their own profit by keeping rates medium-high.

However, now that fiat transfers to BFX are more difficult - it is possible that this large lender will not put additional funds into Bitfinex in a timely manner. Previously it only took 1-2 days for funds to be added after a lending rate spike.

We may see this proposition tested as for the past 1-2 days the USD swap rates have spiked to 0.19%/day!

On the other hand, we won't know whether it was a large actor or a bunch of unrelated small actors as both parties have a harder time putting funds on the site.  In either case, I'd expect greater volatility in BFX swap rates - dampened by the fact that there appears to be an arbitrage channel in operation as the BTC premium has fallen from a peak of $100 to only $0-$40.  Currently the BTC price at BFX and Coinbase are tracking nicely.

1) Ransomware demanded Bitcoins
2) It was temporarily stopped by someone registering a long random domain name.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/13/accidental-hero-finds-kill-switch-to-stop-spread-of-ransomware-cyber-attack

Might be related to the 12%-15% fall yesterday.  Or not related as I expect to have increasingly large drops in the price as we approach the peak of this bullish/bubblish cycle.

I almost thought you meant Stellar (STR)   

Alt-coins mostly holding their ground.  So far LTC peaked after Segwit was activated (which I what I wrote in a Reddit comment - when will the alts peak?  I said when LTC activates Segwit in 3-5 days).

BTC another ATH of 1900.  More bullish sentiment.  At this rate we may break $2000 in 1-3 days.

I'm wasting time playing Stellaris.  Fun game so far!

Very bubbly.  I'm holding, but I've also got 10k sitting around in case it dips below $1000.

BFX high of 1815, fast mini-crash to 1711, fast recover to 1758.

Coinbase is tracking BFX, about $20 behind.

Alt-coins had a small decline in the past 24 hours, but not a clear reversal of the general bull market.

The price gap between BFX and Coinbase is gone. I even saw Coinbase with a $10-$15 premium for a while.  Still $50 gap with Bitstamp.

China markets hit ATH for BTC finally. 

Litecoin is crazy ($25-$27).

The fall from BFX of 1700 to 1550 (so far) is looking bubbly. As in a typical bubble big decline.

Btc isnt in a bubble, I agree on the altcoins part. They will pop sooner or later. Btc will suprise everyone.

It's officially a bubble!  
BFX 1679
Bitstamp 1615
Coinbase 1650
Okcoin 1266 (8731 CND)

Alt-coins are also very bubbly (notably Litecoin and Ethereum - not sure what to make of Ripple as it isn't traded as much).  

BTC percentage of cryptocurrency is at an all-time low
http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage

We might be headed for $2000.

What is especially weird is that after years of people arguing that China is so important, their exchanges are lagging the USD exchanges by 15-33%.

I'm hopeful that the bubble still has some strength in it and will carry us up towards 1900+. But if you have been holding for years and have an increasingly large percent of your assets in bitcoins (and a percentage larger than you want), slowly selling some of them off now might be a good idea.   It beats selling them off at 720 like I did =(

If you have any examples of Japanese or Russian banks using bitcoins please back up your arguments with links or your posts will be deleted.

Meanwhile, another ATH and it cannot keep going up forever.

I'm also thinking that the over-priced stock markets (at least US) could enter a bear market and negatively impact Bitcoin.

Le Pen has little chance of winning in France as she is consistently 20% behind in the polls (which tend to be very accurate) with 5 days left in the race, which is probably bad for Bitcoin but good for France.

No mate it was expected.
Massive adoption was already stated by Japanese banks.
Russia will follow soon.
This is just the beginning.

The Japanese in this regard are very advanced, so I completely agree with your opinion, you see that the rain will not be given to the Japanese user Bitcoin was not so active. But today they have surpassed the most unexpected expectation.