Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 14.

buwaytress

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Hey, hey, we probably deserved it, didn't we? Adrian really is not our 3rd choice keeper for nothing, but glad we completed the final piece of the puzzle with this meme trophy heh.

Let's do another silly trophy on Nantes, cause why not? PSG aren't invincible...

100 units at Fairlay on Nantes to WIN vs PSG @8.65. Other odds: 8.55
Units advantage: 10

Running advantage after 2 bets: +90
All-time cumulative: +83,049
Running units after 1 bets (1W|0L): +1030

Quote from: KTChampions on July 30, 2022, 03:37:03 PM

Welcome back and congratulations on your win! Cool

I was sure that you would bet on Liverpool because the odds were really unfair (plus as I understand you are a fan of it). I also thought about making this bet, but in the end I chose an equally ridiculous (but much more reliable) one (1.93 on the victory of Bayern in the German Super Cup).

Thank you! Odds really were great value, but against City, it always is, and happy to start yet another campaign with a City loss in Community Shield. I'd have added Bayern easily but for the next couple of weeks I'm not going to be able to do accas (probably for the better), so singles on Fairlay's the easiest as am on mobile...

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 30, 2022, 02:03:49 AM

Welcome back, everyone who's following! As tradition dictates, I start the new 2022/23 season with a bet on Community Shield in England, and for once, Liverpool are in it, and at such great odds.

Might as well start with a sizeable sum too, to either have a nice cushion for the season, or to dig a hole for myself to climb back out of haha.

All stats reset except for cumulative units advantage.

For reference, 100 units here will be this season for me 0.2 mbtc (under $5).

500 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to win vs Manchester City @3.06. Other odds: 2.90
Units advantage: 16x5 = 80

Advantage after 1 bets: +80
All-time cumulative: +83,039

Welcome back and congratulations on your win! Cool

I was sure that you would bet on Liverpool because the odds were really unfair (plus as I understand you are a fan of it). I also thought about making this bet, but in the end I chose an equally ridiculous (but much more reliable) one (1.93 on the victory of Bayern in the German Super Cup).

buwaytress

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Welcome back, everyone who's following! As tradition dictates, I start the new 2022/23 season with a bet on Community Shield in England, and for once, Liverpool are in it, and at such great odds.

Might as well start with a sizeable sum too, to either have a nice cushion for the season, or to dig a hole for myself to climb back out of haha.

All stats reset except for cumulative units advantage.

For reference, 100 units here will be this season for me 0.2 mbtc (under $5).

500 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to win vs Manchester City @3.06. Other odds: 2.90
Units advantage: 16x5 = 80

Advantage after 1 bets: +80
All-time cumulative: +83,039

buwaytress

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I will take a minor break, normally this thread runs daily from end to start of season, but will for sure return for the new 22/23 season with the English Community Shield.

This post marks the end of a fourth tracked season, which ended pretty much as bad as it possibly could with betting almost all profits on Liverpool, who lost the UCL final. A final tally from last season:

Running advantage after 139 bets: +14858
All-time cumulative: +82,959
Running units after 139 bets (17W|122L): +38

This will be entered into OP record. At least we're avoided having one season in the red. See you all 31 July 2022 (early odds are Liverpool 27/10 against City which I already put money on but I'll add the link when opening the new season.

buwaytress

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Quote from: Trofo on May 28, 2022, 04:28:24 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on May 28, 2022, 04:03:37 AM

To ensure we don't end the season in negative, I've put almost all the remaining balance of this on to the most value, which is Liverpool to lead by HT. This way, we either come close to break even, or we get a nice bump on the bankroll.

Nice, a big bet to end the season. After that it is only UEFA Nations League anyway and that will be though to predict. I like you bet since Real always started slowly in CL matches and then finished hard. I even think HT win is more likely to hit than FT win.

Is our ticket still alive? I have no idea when some of those games are played

Yeah, I have a really good feeling about it tonight and I should have put that on our ticket actually (still alive!). 2 legs will be decided by midnight (Brazil game and Liverpool ML), then we still have to sweat on Forest to win EPL promotion in tomorrow's playoff, followed by Scotland in the WC qualifier on Wednesday (I think this was the toughest one).

Would be really cool if it passed!

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 28, 2022, 04:03:37 AM

To ensure we don't end the season in negative, I've put almost all the remaining balance of this on to the most value, which is Liverpool to lead by HT. This way, we either come close to break even, or we get a nice bump on the bankroll.

Nice, a big bet to end the season. After that it is only UEFA Nations League anyway and that will be though to predict. I like you bet since Real always started slowly in CL matches and then finished hard. I even think HT win is more likely to hit than FT win.

Is our ticket still alive? I have no idea when some of those games are played

buwaytress

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@Boristhecat you were right of course, but everything changed only in 5 minutes, as you might have followed. City was at 74th minute and 2-0 down, and my other selections had long flown the coop, Chelsea and Spurs were ahead so early!

But in the end, even a draw wouldn't have sufficed. Sometimes the gods just will it this way, in the most painful journey to the inevitable outcome.

Today marks the final day of the season, and I will somehow end up with a bit of positive on the bankroll, which, given all the terrible outcomes, is not a bad thing. It's the worst season of the 4 so far, but there was always bound to be a negative one wasn't there?

Anyway, final bet for the day is the Champions League final.

To ensure we don't end the season in negative, I've put almost all the remaining balance of this on to the most value, which is Liverpool to lead by HT. This way, we either come close to break even, or we get a nice bump on the bankroll.

800 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to win HT vs Real Madrid @2.73. Other odds: 2.69
Units advantage: 28

Running advantage after 139 bets: +14858 (+28)
All-time cumulative: +82,959
Running units after 138 bets (16W|122L): +838 (-300)

Boristhecat

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 22, 2022, 09:20:21 AM

These two teams must win for Arsenal to get UCL football so Norwich and Arsenal to WIN @15.29. Other odds: 14.99
Units advantage: 30
Bet ID: 628a01bd81718075d9cb78a4

Watford shock upset on demoralised Chelsea @18.60. Other odds: 16.00
Units advantage: 260
Bet ID: 6284f0868171806912c6e123

Villa to topple City in final day drama @18.05. Other odds: 17.30
Units advantage: 75
Bet ID: 62839b50817180a306c597db
-skip-

The first two outcomes look completely logical ) But why Aston Villa win against Manchester City? This is an extremely incredible result, it seems to me that if the drama happens, it will be a draw. It will be a shame to "under-receive" the profit if the result is shocking for City (draw), but the bet does not win.

buwaytress

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Leicester took the lead, pegged back, but the match could have ended with a huge win for Chelsea, good thing for a lot of teams they simply couldn't find better finishers with all their money spent.

Anyway, final day of season football, and I've got a few fat bets here, let's see if we can get a penultimate hurrah?

100 units each, all at Sportsbet:

These two teams must win for Arsenal to get UCL football so Norwich and Arsenal to WIN @15.29. Other odds: 14.99
Units advantage: 30
Bet ID: 628a01bd81718075d9cb78a4

Watford shock upset on demoralised Chelsea @18.60. Other odds: 16.00
Units advantage: 260
Bet ID: 6284f0868171806912c6e123

Villa to topple City in final day drama @18.05. Other odds: 17.30
Units advantage: 75
Bet ID: 62839b50817180a306c597db

Running advantage after 138 bets: +14830 (+365)
All-time cumulative: +82,931
Running units after 135 bets (16W|119L): +1138 (-100)

buwaytress

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Damn Hammers came close!

^ Need to take free money bets more often, I just honestly don't have so much time and bankroll these days I literally home in on one game and place a bet, then out... haha.

Season is coming to a close, one bet against Chelsea for tomorrow, hoping they're down on stamina and motivation, with losing a cup, losing some darn good players, while Leicester have had a shitty end of season and will want to try get some happy points.

My luck that right after I placed bets with boost, odds changed so I ended up with no "value" haha.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leicester City to WIN vs Chelsea @9.00. No odds advantage.
Bet ID: 62824655018a646ee3941f05

Running advantage after 135 bets: +14465 (+0)
All-time cumulative: +82,566
Running units after 134 bets (16W|118L): +1238 (-100)

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 15, 2022, 04:43:17 AM

Well, it's the penultimate game of the season and odds are all curtailed, but we'll never give up on City losing one more game right?

So a natural bet for me on West Ham.

100 units at Sportsbet on Hammers to WIN vs Manchester City @8.48.

It is though to bet against City but I feel like this game maybe could be tricky for them. They are missing quite a few important defensive players. Kyle Walker, John Stones and Ruben Dias are out till the end of season and today they should also be without Aymeric Laporte and Fernandinho. I just hope West Ham has it in them to take the game to City and not sit back and defend. You simply have to force City to play in their own half.

With all that missing players I can't believe both to score is @1.8 for this game. Seems like a free money to me and I am taking it on most tickets.

buwaytress

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Well, it's the penultimate game of the season and odds are all curtailed, but we'll never give up on City losing one more game right?

So a natural bet for me on West Ham.

100 units at Sportsbet on Hammers to WIN vs Manchester City @8.48. Other odds: 7.50
Units advantage: 98

Running advantage after 134 bets: +14465 (+98)
All-time cumulative: +82,566
Running units after 133 bets (16W|117L): +1338 (-100)

buwaytress

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Quote from: Trofo on May 08, 2022, 12:32:54 PM

Yeah, that turned out like a complete bust for you. Maybe if you still believe place something on magpies now, it is cool @60

I placed few satoshies just for fun.

Don't even like how it looks for my bet, Newcastle +2.5 @1.6. We discussed that one in Premier League Pool thread and were very convinced it is super safe

Hah, yeah, worse, I actually spent time consolidating some silly money for another silly bet on Frankfurt (12/1) and they only managed to draw. Sterling scoring and Grealish playmaking turned up most, this was a terrible bet as it turned out. The interesting thing now is that Wolves are fantastic value too (I'm kidding but hey).

So that's my next pick.

100 units at Fairlay on Wolves to WIN vs City @13.67. Other odds: 12.50
Units advantage: 117

Running advantage after 133 bets: +14367 (+117)
All-time cumulative: +82,468
Running units after 132 bets (16W|116L): +1438 (-100)

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 08, 2022, 10:22:25 AM

We turn our eyes to Newcastle later today, we've got to hope Eddie Howe is feeling good about himself. Star man Guimarães (had to copy paste that from Transfrmarkt), hope he's extra motivated to bet the champs!

Yeah, that turned out like a complete bust for you. Maybe if you still believe place something on magpies now, it is cool @60

I placed few satoshies just for fun.

Don't even like how it looks for my bet, Newcastle +2.5 @1.6. We discussed that one in Premier League Pool thread and were very convinced it is super safe

buwaytress

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Well, Rangers did themselves proud in the end and won the 2nd leg at Ibrox. Pity it wasn't done with Gerrard still there, but they'll know he had everything to do with giving them the belief and ability to get to the final. That's going to be a worthy Europa match!

We turn our eyes to Newcastle later today, we've got to hope Eddie Howe is feeling good about himself. Star man Guimarães (had to copy paste that from Transfrmarkt), hope he's extra motivated to bet the champs!

100 units at Sportsbet on Newcastle to WIN vs Manchester City @17.50. Other odds: 16.00
Units advantage: 150
Bet ID: 6277c3a916aa915bd7917916

Running advantage after 132 bets: +14250 (+150)
All-time cumulative: +82,291
Running units after 131 bets (16W|115L): +1538 (-100)

buwaytress

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Oops Real Madrid, should have opted for Chelsea and Liverpool handicap instead, but never the matter. Europa League action, can we count on Rangers to make up for a possible lost title defence? I say aye!

100 units at Sportsbet on Rangers to WIN vs Leipzig @9.58. Other odds: 9.20
Units advantage: 38

Running advantage after 131 bets: +14100 (+38)
All-time cumulative: +82,141
Running units after 130 bets (16W|114L): +1638 (-100)

buwaytress

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So BVB was disappointing, Haaland didn't even get on the scoresheet, but we've got a great Champions League match on tonight and I'd have put money on Real at 4/1 in a heartbeat, but City playing at home gives us great odds at over 7/1.

Pair that with a Liverpool win tomorrow, good value?

100 units at Sportsbet on Real and Liverpool to WIN @10.41. Other odds: 9.66
Bet ID: 6266bd8f817180a17fa9b1b0
Units advantage: 75

Running advantage after 130 bets: +14062 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +82,103
Running units after 129 bets (16W|113L): +1738 (-200)

buwaytress

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Quote from: Boristhecat on April 23, 2022, 05:45:20 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on April 23, 2022, 03:50:31 AM

There's also a Super Boost on Sportsbet -- United have never looked so poor, while Dortmund will be inspired to not let Bayern enjoy their title, so why not an Arsenal-BVB acca?
100 units on Arsenal and BVB to WIN @14.55. Other odds: 13.66
Units advantage: 89

Bookmakers quote the chances of Borussia to win as 7? Lol what? A bet on this outcome looks attractive in itself, you don’t even need to add a risky Arsenal. I wonder what caused such unfair odds for Dortmund on the part of the bookmakers - do they really think that compared to Bayern this is a team of the level of Arminia and has no chance? But this is not true.

Congratulations on your deposit recovery. Liverpool really made everyone happy.

I don't really get it either (but if you read my response to you in the F1 thread then we have to assume betting money is heavily on Bayern, which doesn't make sense with such poor odds) -- and if you look now, the odds are even 8/1 ++. Lineup looks stead: Reus and Brandt flanking Haaland with Bellingham behind, so it's not like they can't score. I feel like I got cheated on my acca too as Arsenal was over 2/1. Could easily get 16.5x if I placed my bet right before Arsenal game and it was only 14.55 when I locked in.

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I don't even try to predict who will win between Bayern and Dortmund, I just place a bet on both to score as soon as I see it in the offer

Maybe I'll add even both to score in both halves which has really good odds.

As we talked before, Bayern is often looking out of sorts this season but that happens more often against week teams. I guess they get psyched up for big games and then their qoulity really shows. I am predicting 4:2 for Bayern tonight.

Boristhecat

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 23, 2022, 03:50:31 AM

There's also a Super Boost on Sportsbet -- United have never looked so poor, while Dortmund will be inspired to not let Bayern enjoy their title, so why not an Arsenal-BVB acca?
100 units on Arsenal and BVB to WIN @14.55. Other odds: 13.66
Units advantage: 89

Bookmakers quote the chances of Borussia to win as 7? Lol what? A bet on this outcome looks attractive in itself, you don’t even need to add a risky Arsenal. I wonder what caused such unfair odds for Dortmund on the part of the bookmakers - do they really think that compared to Bayern this is a team of the level of Arminia and has no chance? But this is not true.

Congratulations on your deposit recovery. Liverpool really made everyone happy.

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 14. (Read 39960 times)