Old BFL buyers vs new asicminer prices - page 3.

kaerf

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Quote

Wednesday, August 28, 2013 Shipping Update
by BFL_Jody , 08-28-2013 at 09:38 PM
Jalapenos: Feb 12, 2013

Little Singles: Oct. 11, 2012 pay date No LS shipped today

Singles: July 16, 2012 pay date

MiniRigs: for June 25 (2nd 500gh/s unit) and July 28 for 1st 500 gh/s
No MiniRigs shipped today

Most have only gotten one THIRD or two thirds of their order...IF they have even gotten their order. Don't even make the the 1.5TH/s comparison...it should be 3000 BTC for 0-500-1000GH/s vs...

Jutarul

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Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 08:11:30 PM

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then. ...
Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

touché

Empirical evidence suggests that you must be right. Otherwise your company wouldn't be swamped with orders.
Either that, or the majority of the customers are simply confused. Clearly, the masses cannot be wrong.

Bicknellski

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Quote from: kjj on August 28, 2013, 11:22:13 PM

Woohoo! Fallacy of the False Dilemma.

If you pick through a lot of his posts there are many many many more logical fallacies. He doesn't even realise it I am sure. Nice pick up! Happy hunting everyone.

http://wiki.ironchariots.org/index.php?title=Logical_fallacies

Logical fallacies

Code:

FORMAL FALLACIES
	
Propositional logic 	 

Affirming a disjunct · Affirming the consequent · Argument from fallacy · 
False dilemma 

Quantificational logic 	 

Existential fallacy · Illicit conversion · Proof by example · Quantifier shift

Syllogistic 	 

Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise · Exclusive premises · Necessity · Four-term Fallacy ·
Illicit major · Illicit minor · Undistributed middle


FAULTY GENERALISATIONS	

General 	 

Begging the question · Gambler's fallacy · Slippery slope · Equivocation · argumentum verbosium

Distribution fallacies 	

Fallacy of composition · Fallacy of division 

Data mining 	 

Cherry picking · Accident fallacy · Spotlight fallacy · Hasty generalization · Special pleading 

Causation fallacies 	 

Post hoc ergo propter hoc · Retrospective determinism · Suppressed correlative · Wrong direction

Ontological fallacies 	 

Fallacy of reification · Pathetic fallacy · Loki's Wager


FALSE RELEVANCE

Appeals 	 

Appeal to authority · Appeal to consequences · Appeal to emotion · Appeal to motive · 
Appeal to novelty · Appeal to tradition · Appeal to pity · Appeal to popularity · Appeal to poverty · 
Appeal to spite · Appeal to wealth · 

Sentimental fallacy 

Argumentum ad baculum Ad hominem 	 Ad hominem abusive · Reductio ad Hitlerum · Judgmental language · Straw man · 
Tu quoque 

Genetic Fallacies 	 

Genetic fallacy · Chronological snobbery · Association fallacy · Appeal to tradition · Texas sharpshooter fallacy

YipYip

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Quote from: kjj on August 28, 2013, 11:22:13 PM

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 08:11:30 PM

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then. This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself." Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x! Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency. Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Woohoo! Fallacy of the False Dilemma.

But, say we ignore that. I can still assure you that not a single solitary human being capable of rational though would pick option 2. Notice that option 2 converts 10 BTC into 5. People looking to get rid of excess BTC can donate them to charity, or send them to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE. They don't need you to provide a BTC removal service.

P.S. I am "an average miner", and I have never intentionally purchased equipment that I expected would earn me less BTC than what I was spending on it.

ALl of these delusions is what he keeps telling himself to justify the way he has treated and not delivered products to his long suffering customers

Your fantasy island days are over Jailbird... A market place with choices has started ...

And just think Josh..... BFL & the band of theifs & grifters... you guys could have had IT ALL !!!!

.. in 5 years crypto will be as common as fiat and you guys could have been APPLE

The most MONUMENTAL EPIC FAIL of this century Cool

kjj

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Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 08:11:30 PM

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then. This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself." Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x! Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency. Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Woohoo! Fallacy of the False Dilemma.

But, say we ignore that. I can still assure you that not a single solitary human being capable of rational though would pick option 2. Notice that option 2 converts 10 BTC into 5. People looking to get rid of excess BTC can donate them to charity, or send them to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE. They don't need you to provide a BTC removal service.

P.S. I am "an average miner", and I have never intentionally purchased equipment that I expected would earn me less BTC than what I was spending on it.

k9quaint

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Quote from: Xian01 on August 28, 2013, 11:01:14 PM

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 10:50:39 PM

Heh, what a tool.

Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

There is no need for that final snipe.

Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.

Xian01

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Christian Antkow

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 10:50:39 PM

Heh, what a tool.

Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

There is no need for that final snipe.

Evolve, Josh.

k9quaint

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Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 10:50:39 PM

Quote from: k9quaint on August 28, 2013, 10:48:09 PM

Quote from: rograz on August 28, 2013, 09:42:12 PM

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 07:16:16 PM

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up. This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent. If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware. It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post. Heh, what a tool.

This is how you know you won an argument with Inaba. He stops replying to logic and math and starts flinging insults to derail the thread and keep people from reading about his failures.

Then his fanboi's cry that there is hate on the forums. Go figure. Cheesy

Inaba

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Quote from: k9quaint on August 28, 2013, 10:48:09 PM

Quote from: rograz on August 28, 2013, 09:42:12 PM

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 07:16:16 PM

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up. This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent. If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware. It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post. Heh, what a tool.

k9quaint

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Quote from: rograz on August 28, 2013, 09:42:12 PM

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 07:16:16 PM

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up. This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent. If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware. It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

rograz

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Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 07:16:16 PM

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up. This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent. If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware. It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

Cablez

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I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...

Quote from: Syke on August 28, 2013, 08:21:57 PM

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 08:11:30 PM

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x! Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency. Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Ok, you give me 400 BTC and I'll give you 5 BTC. We can use John K. for escrow if you're uncomfortable with the trade. I'll even pay the escrow fee.

I know right? Its like BFL has no idea who they are selling their hardware too...........or maybe they do? Hint: clueless noobs with the rest getting sucked in too.

teek

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This might be a good time to point out you can pre-order your ANTI-BFL T-Shirt at http://www.wtcr.ca/catalog/product/sh-abflw-01 as well you can also pre-order ASICMINER products and receive them in 4-6 weeks¹.

¹_{just kidding, shirts, blades, and usbs, ship IMMEDIATELY.}

YipYip

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Quote from: derr777 on August 28, 2013, 08:45:07 PM

Getting back to the original topic. What would stop those of us outside of the BFL inner circle, who might have more knowledge of the situation than us, from thinking that the coming price war wouldn't put them in serious jeopardy of not remaining a going concern. While ASICMINER sold out on some blades, the price is not going to go back up when they come back in, which seems to be always pretty darn quick. Even if the math presented above is slightly off with regard to mini-rig and X blades at Y price, the very real possibility that hashrate is available at a significantly lower price than a BFL May preorder, (which there were a ton of due to price spiking of BTC,) definately exists.

The inside vibe of BFL will be PONZI city...they dont have teh funds as they will have been spent !!!

Price war...i loled ... they cant even buy enough components to fulfill current orders 10x over

A gentle breeze will fold the house of cards that is BFL

derr777

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Getting back to the original topic. What would stop those of us outside of the BFL inner circle, who might have more knowledge of the situation than us, from thinking that the coming price war wouldn't put them in serious jeopardy of not remaining a going concern. While ASICMINER sold out on some blades, the price is not going to go back up when they come back in, which seems to be always pretty darn quick. Even if the math presented above is slightly off with regard to mini-rig and X blades at Y price, the very real possibility that hashrate is available at a significantly lower price than a BFL May preorder, (which there were a ton of due to price spiking of BTC,) definately exists.

dogie

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dogiecoin.com

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 07:16:16 PM

So here's the real tally:

Minirig: $30,000, uses less power, takes up less space
Blades: $54,000, uses 3x more power, takes up lots more space

ROFL, vapourware does tend not to take up much space, handy that.

bcp19

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Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 08:11:30 PM

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x! Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency. Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Hey Josh, while I realize this is a bit off-topic to this discussion, PG locked the other thread. I was wondering, since you invited him to come look around and he is kind of an oppenent in regards to you and BFL, I live about 4 hours away and could, with your permission, run down and 'tag along' during the tour. That way you'd have people from 'both sides' present. I'm semi-retired and my schedule is very flexible. Let me know.

k9quaint

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Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 08:11:30 PM

Quote from: Jutarul on August 28, 2013, 07:59:22 PM

Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 07:16:16 PM

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions. Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:

Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then. This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself." Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x! Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency. Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

You should never spend 10BTC to get 5BTC. That is a fools errand. You are reducing your BTC holdings and hoping the exchange rate will rise to bail out your poor decision making.
Always spend 10BTC to gain 400BTC. You cannot control the fluctuations in the exchange rate. Ideally, spend 10BTC to get a product that ships immediately, so you can begin mining and not wait a year.

Syke

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Quote from: Inaba on August 28, 2013, 08:11:30 PM

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x! Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency. Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Ok, you give me 400 BTC and I'll give you 5 BTC. We can use John K. for escrow if you're uncomfortable with the trade. I'll even pay the escrow fee.

bcp19

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Quote from: 01BTC10 on August 28, 2013, 08:12:44 PM

This is strange because I bought my Avalon unit with BTC and my goal was to get more BTC and I was successful. But I'm probably only a stupid miner.

Yes, but can you do it again and again and again? Anyone can get lucky once.

Topic: Old BFL buyers vs new asicminer prices - page 3. (Read 5498 times)