Topic: Old BFL buyers vs new asicminer prices - page 4. (Read 5498 times)
This is strange because I bought my Avalon unit with BTC and my goal was to get more BTC and I was successful. But I'm probably only a stupid miner.
This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions. Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself. Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.
Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.
You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then. This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself." Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.
Once again, I challenge you:
Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each
Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x! Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency. Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.
You know, I gave credit to Josh at least he would express his view point vs Yifu pretty much just gave you the finger every time 
This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions. Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself. Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.
Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.
If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that. 
I'd like to slam BFL for terrible communications. Everyday I have to go to these pages:
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/activity.php
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/inaba-8198
And filter through endless tirades of misinformation and babble/drivel. Rarely to discover any facts which give me any indication of when and if I'll ever receive my Single or, for that matter, recoup any of the money I invested nearly a year ago.
Contrast this with:
https://www.kncminer.com/news
Where I receive clear, un-opinionated facts and information which reassure me and help me prepare for delivery of my Jupiter. Given what I know now, the only emotion that I have is regret for listening to all the bullish hype and over-promising which was the signature of BFL's presence on this forum in September and October last year.
Josh, I mean this nicely, but can you please consider stopping picking fights with everyone on this forum who makes accusations and concentrate on providing clear information to your customers, like me.
Cheers,
Donovan.
Looks like so far KNC has delivered nothing so they would not be a great example. Avalon makes BFL look quite transparent. ASICminer is the most straight forward so far doing pretty much what they promise but also the only one of the three competing directly with their customers putting their customers at a huge disadvantage.
Hmmmmmm
Choices... Choices... Choices...
Josh is seeing ghosts because he knows he is going to jail at some point. Better start beefing up bro.
Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.
Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013. 20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.
Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised. Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013. 20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.
Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised. Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
3000 BTC value in August 2012 in USD: $30,000
420 BTC value in August 2013 in USD: $54,600
So buy from ASICminer a year later, spend 46% more for 1/6th the hashing power @ 3x the power consumption! Sounds like a good deal to me! Not.
Now forgive me, perhaps my information is wrong, but aren't the Eruptor Blades 13 GH/s each? If, so, how do you get 1500 GH out of 20 * 13?
FUD much?
cry cry ....your time is coming to an end
I hate BFL as much as everyone else, but seriously guys it's getting out of control:
I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read.
Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000? When its invested in BFL. No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.
Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000? When its invested in BFL. No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.
This is pretty much a new twist on the ole Bait and Switch with the Monarch and really I can't see why there is no reaction from the forums owner on this... it is fraud and really you shouldn't be taking any advertising dollars from people doing that.
Bait-and-switch is a form of fraud used in retail sales but also employed in other contexts. First, customers are "baited" by merchants' advertising products or services at a low price, but when customers visit the store, they discover that the advertised goods are not available, or the customers are pressured by sales people to consider similar, but higher priced items ("switching").
In a retail store, when the advertised item is unavailable, you are given a rain-check. And you come back at a later date and get that item at the advertised price. And if that item is discontinued or otherwise unavailable, you are substituted a replacement item of similar value.
I'm failing to see how this is much different than what BFL is doing. Other than the fact that the original item and the substitute item might be out-of-stock for several months, lol.
I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read.
Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000? When its invested in BFL. No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.
Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000? When its invested in BFL. No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.
This is pretty much a new twist on the ole Bait and Switch with the Monarch and really I can't see why there is no reaction from the forums owner on this... it is fraud and really you shouldn't be taking any advertising dollars from people doing that.
Bait-and-switch is a form of fraud used in retail sales but also employed in other contexts. First, customers are "baited" by merchants' advertising products or services at a low price, but when customers visit the store, they discover that the advertised goods are not available, or the customers are pressured by sales people to consider similar, but higher priced items ("switching").
The larger point is that ASICMiner wouldn't be pricing the boards at 420 BTC if they felt they are going to produce 3000 BTC. It just highlight how much BFL failure to deliver has cost those that trusted the company. Nobody paid 3,000 BTC for a mini rig because they believed that it would only produce 500 BTC. They did so because they felt the rig would produce >3000 BTC in revenue. It would have if BFL had "only" been 6 months late.
You may ask why is this relevant? Well because today BFL is offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time. If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows months before they deliver someone else will offer a competing product for 6 BTC.
You may ask why is this relevant? Well because today BFL is offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time. If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows months before they deliver someone else will offer a competing product for 6 BTC.
You do know there are some people hashing away with Mini-rigs right now? I don't think they are complaining too much. They're too busy trying to stash their piles bitcoins somewhere safe, lol.
And yes, I do know there are many others still waiting. But sometimes the risk is worth the reward. Other times... not so much. But you certainly won't gain anything if you don't take some risk. And you can minimize risk by hedging (splitting orders between different ASIC vendors and/or buying BTC) and doing research.
cross-post because the posts were moved:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029775
In short: everyone who tries to convince you that pricing mining hardware in USD instead of bitcoin is proper, is either misguided or tries to deceive you. Caveat emptor. What matters is the amount of bitcoin equivalent you spent at the time of purchase.
Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.
I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.
ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029211
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029775
In short: everyone who tries to convince you that pricing mining hardware in USD instead of bitcoin is proper, is either misguided or tries to deceive you. Caveat emptor. What matters is the amount of bitcoin equivalent you spent at the time of purchase.
Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500? Wow...
the typo is irrelevant for the conclusion. It didn't lead to vastly false numbers.But lets go back to the USD assessment. The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.
No. An investment into bitcoin mining is a way to buy future bitcoins at current market price. Buyers of the August 2012 minirig bought the prospect of earning future bitcoins (>3000BTC) by spending bitcoins (3000BTC). The fact that they may have spent USD is irrelevant, because it is a different savings vehicle and looking at BTC/USD is only relevant for overhead costs (rent,electricity) which are not priced in bitcoin.Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.
Once again, your entire premise is flawed. If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire? If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC? You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?
Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.
I understand that you would like to discredit the validity of DeathAndTaxes' assessment. However, this is not hindsight investing. That is market forces at play. Would the USD/BTC be $10/BTC right now, the eruptor blade would still cost 420 BTC, because that's what the expected ROI is in terms of future bitcoins.Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.
I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.
ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029211
I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read.
Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000? When its invested in BFL. No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.
Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000? When its invested in BFL. No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.
Right on the money Death...
Nice thread by the way.
Nice thread by the way.
Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.
Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013. 120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.
Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised. Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20. The typo seems obvious to me. 1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards. 420 BTC / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.
Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013. 120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.
Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised. Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20. The typo seems obvious to me. 1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards. 420 BTC / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.
The one problem I have with this analysis is that is it is completely from hindsight. No one had even heard of ASICMiner back in August 2012 to make a choice. He wasn't even a blip on the radar. This kind of math is somewhat useful but not helpful.
The larger point is that ASICMiner wouldn't be pricing the boards at 420 BTC if they felt they are going to produce 3000 BTC. It just highlight how much BFL's failure to deliver has cost those that trusted the company. Nobody paid 3,000 BTC for a mini rig because they believed that it would only produce 500 BTC. They did so because they felt the rig would produce >3000 BTC in revenue. It would have if BFL had "only" been 6 months late.
You may ask why is this relevant? Well if BFL wasn't offering any new products it would be moot. Maybe just a sad irony. However today BFL IS offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time. If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows maybe months before they actually deliver someone will offer an equivalent product with immediate delivery for 6 BTC.
You can lead a horse to water ...
... but you can't make him drink. Especially if it's the same ol' stinky, stagnant water you've tried to make him drink hundreds of times before.
The analogy here is there is no water to drink (0 real information about the units that do not even exist except as a picture). Try BFL forums for more information right?
Well, I see we've been split from the Monarch discussion thread, lol.
And in response to your point... You don't think it's reasonble for me to respond in a thread on this forum specifically about the Monarch and have a discussion about the Monarch? That is utterly ridiculous!
If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that.
I'd like to slam BFL for terrible communications. Everyday I have to go to these pages:
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/activity.php
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/inaba-8198
And filter through endless tirades of misinformation and babble/drivel. Rarely to discover any facts which give me any indication of when and if I'll ever receive my Single or, for that matter, recoup any of the money I invested nearly a year ago.
Contrast this with:
https://www.kncminer.com/news
Where I receive clear, un-opinionated facts and information which reassure me and help me prepare for delivery of my Jupiter. Given what I know now, the only emotion that I have is regret for listening to all the bullish hype and over-promising which was the signature of BFL's presence on this forum in September and October last year.
Josh, I mean this nicely, but can you please consider stopping picking fights with everyone on this forum who makes accusations and concentrate on providing clear information to your customers, like me.
Cheers,
Donovan.
Oh woe woe is me: I bought batch 1 avalon and paid about 110 BTC for only 60GH/s... if only I'd waited and bought asicminer blades! I could have saved 80%! ... and lost a lot of coin.
Pricing this out in Bitcoin is misguided. In a counterfactual world the BTC exchange rate could have tanked over the same time. If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that.
Pricing this out in Bitcoin is misguided. In a counterfactual world the BTC exchange rate could have tanked over the same time. If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that.
Jump to: