I went over FAQ again because there is something that bothers me and I could not figure it out. How does current block estimate works? At this moment I contribute tiny 0.17% of the whole pool hash rate. However, estimated reward for the next block is only 0.12% of 50 BTC per block reward. It may seem that 0.05% is not much but it actually makes about 40% diff to my payouts.
Does it means that there are some people who jumped out of the pool and pool still owes them "maximal reward"? I am I correct at guessing that I am offered (my unpaid reward)/(all unpaid rewards)*50BTC. This would depend on historical contributions as long as 30h ago. While hash rate calculations are based on last 3 hours performance only.
This is caused by two things.
First, the timeframe for the hashrate calculation is not identical to the time it takes to find a block.
Second, the SMPPS reward system currently has a depleted buffer, causing it to not be able to pay full PPS rewards until pool luck will get high enough. It will attempt to pay that back as soon as it can, but nobody knows if it will ever be able to fully pay it.
This is my main concern against SMPPS: It is more likely for you to be fully paid if you leave the pool now, however if everybody does that nobody will be fully paid at all. This is a very critical situation for the pool, and if it stays like this for a long time, miners will start leaving, and new miners will have no incentive to join, effectively killing the pool. Let's hope for luck to catch up quickly
Regarding the valid block in invalid share dilemma, I think the most fair solution is the most complicated one (which wasn't proposed above), to take these blocks into account, dropping a user's balance negative if necessary, only putting the "collected" funds into the buffer, until the user "pays back" his debt (by mining), which would put the remaining funds in the buffer once this happens. A bit complicated, but should be possible, and should not be attackable any worse than any of the other solutions.
I had an in-depth discussion about the pros and cons of this with Luke-Jr yesterday on IRC, and it seems that we agree that this is the solution with the least negative impact on the pool (or even a positive one).