So to make it clear. The likelihood that the float of Dash is significantly owned by those in the instamine and who likely owned masternodes hence thus maintaining their share of the coin supply is what in your estimation?
Very low. In my estimation Evan should be from around 100k to 400k tops - as he was just one of the two "partners" and Hagan / internetape has already sold much or all of his stash in the lower price ranges.
Evan probably had to face some serious losses as well:
a) the ccex hack (feb '14 - about 300 btc were stolen and moved out of the exchange by taking the darkcoins, moving them to poloniex and dumping them there for btcs)
b) the official pool hack, where he had to pay miners from his money and close the pool - I have no idea about how large a hit he took.
c) mintpal scam (I think Evan held quite a lot of DRKs @mintpal - probably in the five digits)
d) cryptsy "hack" (no idea if he held any serious amount over there after the first three rounds of losses)
Masternode rewards came online much later, when coin supply wasn't at 2mn, but more like 4.5mn+ and that was the low reward-scheme... like 10% or something because it was planned to gradually escalate in terms of pow/pos balance... I think the 50-50 reward was coded to be reached in small increments by q3 or q4 '15... yet by that time coins had reached 6mn. So from the instamine till then, another 4mn coins had been added to the supply, mainly by PoW....
So on one hand you have large scale redistribution of the first 2mn coins (I know of whales that bought large packages like 20-40-100k DRKs for peanuts, back in the 0.00002 - 0.0005 range, and were even buying the ccex hacked DRKs dumps over at poloniex, down at 0.0008 or something). Then price stabilized around 0.0015 and there was like 2-3 months of constant reshuffling because the dumps were definitely much much more than the daily coin production. The thread was like "oh fuck this price suppression, fuck the dumpers" etc etc. Kind of like for two months. So redistribution was ongoing. People though, back in feb-march of '14 thought that if they managed to sell at something like 0.002 they'd be kings... imagine when large whales started acquiring up to 0.025+ - and every single dumper lost their coins - most lost them at the first huge resistance levels which were at 0.003-0.005 where massive dumping occurred, yet the pump sucked everything out of them and continued up to stratospheric heights.
All these things reshuffled the distribution so much that most darkcoiners understood that the instamine is a non-issue. And then we had even further redistribution by the mintpal and cryptsy stored coins which were lost. Between them they must have held like 800k in their wallets, although Mintpal allowed some withdrawals for some time. The Moolah scammer probably dumped hundreds of thousands down to a price 0.0025 or something - the downward spikes from his massive dumps were shocking.
Cryptsy must have used their DRK cold wallet to dump DRKs in order to acquire BTC and LTC to pay for such withdrawals (as they claim their BTC/LTC wallets were hacked - DRK wasn't). And when people understood that it was cryptsy's DRK being sold to suppress the price, and when cryptsy run out of DRKs to dump and had to admit their BTC/LTC "hack", investors where like "ah, so that was why price was down for so long... so who is going to dump now? nobody" => hence the price spiked upwards from 0.005 to 0.017 where we are today.