Poker Probability - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Cnut237

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on November 29, 2020, 01:53:30 PM

it is easily my favorite gambling game hands down

Mine too. I like games that rely more on skill than brute luck. Poker is fairly simple to learn, but phenomenally difficult to master. I love the combination of skill, maths and psychology. The hardest thing for me is trying to ensure that my play is unpredictable for my opponents. For example, sometimes if I have an excellent hand I will remain very hesitant and low-stakes on betting, and only make a huge bid later on, when some random low value card is revealed.

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on November 29, 2020, 01:53:30 PM

Awesome post, love seeing the probabilities for each type of hand! Poker got really big here in the United States around 2003-4 time frame. I was in college at the time and when I first learned how to play I was absolutely hooked. We would play every night for months on end. The only problem with sit down texas holdem is making sure you've got absolutely nothing to do for hours on end. I would often just go all in when I wanted to go do something. Other than that, it is easily my favorite gambling game hands down too.

Thank you for appreciation, have to admit that I am the same although it was around my senior hihschool year when I learn to fully play and it was the perfect game to play on dead hours of our classes, it really is time consuming and that is part of the reason that I haven't played awhile.

ChiBitCTy

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Awesome post, love seeing the probabilities for each type of hand! Poker got really big here in the United States around 2003-4 time frame. I was in college at the time and when I first learned how to play I was absolutely hooked. We would play every night for months on end. The only problem with sit down texas holdem is making sure you've got absolutely nothing to do for hours on end. I would often just go all in when I wanted to go do something. Other than that, it is easily my favorite gambling game hands down too.

tyz

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Quote from: FontSeli on November 28, 2020, 06:20:45 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on November 28, 2020, 05:33:46 PM

This is a very useful spreadsheet, but in fact it is not correct. It was created on the assumption that the opponent has random cards in his hands. In fact, if you have two aces, your opponent will call your bet (which you must raise very seriously) with cards that are much better than the average.

All such tables only reflect average figures and do not need to be treated as something very accurate. However, it is quite possible to estimate the chances of falling out of a particular combination of cards.
In general, sometimes it seems to me that the chances of getting good cards by the opponent are much higher than mine. Cheesy

Yes, and not to forget, poker is a game of 50% probability and 50% psychology. Sot the probability figures show only half the truth. I have followed a lot of poker matches on TV years back and I could not count the times in which a player with much better cards (and therefore better chances to win) through away his/her cards because the opponent convinced him with its behaviour that the player has worse cards (what was not the case). Knowing the probability of your own hand helps but you also need to consider factors like psychological behaviour, table position, stack highs etc, too.

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Quote from: FontSeli on November 28, 2020, 06:20:45 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on November 28, 2020, 05:33:46 PM

This is a very useful spreadsheet, but in fact it is not correct. It was created on the assumption that the opponent has random cards in his hands. In fact, if you have two aces, your opponent will call your bet (which you must raise very seriously) with cards that are much better than the average.

All such tables only reflect average figures and do not need to be treated as something very accurate. However, it is quite possible to estimate the chances of falling out of a particular combination of cards.
In general, sometimes it seems to me that the chances of getting good cards by the opponent are much higher than mine. Cheesy

This is obvious for the reason I indicated above. Opponent discards bad cards. You see your opponent's hand if he responds to your aggressive play, which means he also has good cards. Therefore, if you are guided by such spreadsheets, then you see a huge difference between theory and practice.

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Quote from: jostorres on November 29, 2020, 06:16:18 AM

Exactly my point as well but it is true when you play against the same players even online you start to notice how they react and what moves they make on what kind of cards because everyone has certain way of reacting to bad and good cards.

In the online scenario you can use the player notes and marking.

It is worth starting to mark players when you see a style you can recognise eg I have a tag for "goes all in with weird hands"

At first it wasn't that useful but now after a time of doing it on 2 sites I meet 3 or 4 "marked" players in every tourney.

Information is king.

Then I just need to wait the right moment

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Quote from: Savemore on November 29, 2020, 05:02:26 AM

Calculations are important in playing poker because you can have an idea if your cards that you have can win or not, those professional gamblers are good with calculations and of course in probabilities because that skills are important to them. Having good cards doesn't mean that you are lucky because you need to have confidence and right skills to execute it properly.

Besides that, it is also important, a poker player must also have a good psychological factor because the combination of a solid strategy with reliable psychology can make a poker player successful. With good psychology, poker players can find out their limits and can predict how strong their opponent is, so this makes it possible for them to be able to read the opponent's thoughts and feelings.

Moreover, great psychology will allow them to withstand the pressures that appear during the match, so they can play without making fatal mistakes.

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Quote from: FontSeli on November 26, 2020, 06:43:11 PM

You should keep in mind that experienced players are able to keep calm when playing poker and it is difficult to guess anything from their face. Besides, I think everyone knows how to make a happy face when you have bad cards in your hand. This is one of the stages of bluffing.

These mind games are useless I guess when you are playing online poker but because I am not so good at poker and I hardly play but in real life I play these card games a lot.

Quote from: FontSeli on November 26, 2020, 06:43:11 PM

In any case, if players often play together, they can notice some features of the opponent's behavior, which help to guess which cards are in his hands.

Yeah frequently playing with the same players does help in understanding the behavior and nature of your opponent.

Quote from: ?? on ??

it only works when you are gambling face to face and face to face with other players, but if everything is done online and cannot read facial expressions it will be difficult to know the expressions of other gamblers.

Exactly my point as well but it is true when you play against the same players even online you start to notice how they react and what moves they make on what kind of cards because everyone has certain way of reacting to bad and good cards.

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Quote from: Wexnident on November 28, 2020, 11:18:35 PM

Quote from: Cnut237 on November 18, 2020, 06:12:04 AM

I'd disagree with this. Whilst we can calculate the static odds of a certain hand, it is extremely difficult to calculate on-the-fly, in the middle of a game, what your chances are of getting a certain hand - and of other players getting certain hands. The people-reading is certainly a key part of being a successful player, but the ability to even approximate the odds in the middle of a game is a vital vital skill. I think I'm an okay poker player, not bad but not great, and I do try to estimate very rough odds whilst games are in progress - it is an extremely difficult challenge.

Erm, flying on the fly isn't what I meant by straightforward, that's 2 different things imo. That's a "skill" in of itself, but the math behind it is plainly straightforward with no particular issues for errors. A result doesn't change randomly, it changes depending on the move made by you and the player against you, as well as the cards on the table. With those factors the only ones affecting the end result, it's a pretty straightforward calculation. Knowing said calculation does not guarantee a win though, since in the first place, the basis of the calculations is probabilities, and there isn't any 100% guarantee anywhere imo.

Also once you start to play more regularly you should be playing based on a certain range of cards. Probability of winning is one thing, but if you only bet the top 10 cards, and fold/call the rest, you become very easy to be outplayed. For example, if you play J10 the same way you play your K10 or A10 then it becomes much harder for your opponents to put you on a specific hand. A lot of people take notes when playing online, there is wide variety of player colors you can assign to people. Which makes it easier to call or fold in some instances.

Savemore

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Quote from: Wexnident on November 28, 2020, 11:18:35 PM

Quote from: Cnut237 on November 18, 2020, 06:12:04 AM

I'd disagree with this. Whilst we can calculate the static odds of a certain hand, it is extremely difficult to calculate on-the-fly, in the middle of a game, what your chances are of getting a certain hand - and of other players getting certain hands. The people-reading is certainly a key part of being a successful player, but the ability to even approximate the odds in the middle of a game is a vital vital skill. I think I'm an okay poker player, not bad but not great, and I do try to estimate very rough odds whilst games are in progress - it is an extremely difficult challenge.

Erm, flying on the fly isn't what I meant by straightforward, that's 2 different things imo. That's a "skill" in of itself, but the math behind it is plainly straightforward with no particular issues for errors. A result doesn't change randomly, it changes depending on the move made by you and the player against you, as well as the cards on the table. With those factors the only ones affecting the end result, it's a pretty straightforward calculation. Knowing said calculation does not guarantee a win though, since in the first place, the basis of the calculations is probabilities, and there isn't any 100% guarantee anywhere imo.

Calculations are important in playing poker because you can have an idea if your cards that you have can win or not, those professional gamblers are good with calculations and of course in probabilities because that skills are important to them. Having good cards doesn't mean that you are lucky because you need to have confidence and right skills to execute it properly.

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Quote from: TopT3ns on November 28, 2020, 06:26:16 PM

Quote from: FontSeli on November 28, 2020, 06:20:45 PM

All such tables only reflect average figures and do not need to be treated as something very accurate. However, it is quite possible to estimate the chances of falling out of a particular combination of cards.
In general, sometimes it seems to me that the chances of getting good cards by the opponent are much higher than mine. Cheesy

the problem is when we do the recording method of everything that has been played sometimes if we start again what the machine produces is not the same because I believe they have installed a script to read the cards we have and not poker gambling is not as honest as you might imagine, because if it is easy to guess and always wins, it will make online poker bankrupt.

If you don't see getting good cards while playing a poker game, you don't have to continue playing because that can make you get more losses. You will not see the chance to win, especially if you don't have poker games skills. But anyway, I think you will get good cards someday, which will happen coincidentally, and you will never expect to have those cards. But every poker player will have different luck when they play, and some people who have high poker skills will get loss their money someday. But with having a high skill in poker, you will have more chances to win.

Those tables are just a table, and we don't have to think seriously, but maybe we can that something useful from that table. But to have good cards will be a luck factor that every gambler needs to have.

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Quote from: Cnut237 on November 18, 2020, 06:12:04 AM

I'd disagree with this. Whilst we can calculate the static odds of a certain hand, it is extremely difficult to calculate on-the-fly, in the middle of a game, what your chances are of getting a certain hand - and of other players getting certain hands. The people-reading is certainly a key part of being a successful player, but the ability to even approximate the odds in the middle of a game is a vital vital skill. I think I'm an okay poker player, not bad but not great, and I do try to estimate very rough odds whilst games are in progress - it is an extremely difficult challenge.

Erm, flying on the fly isn't what I meant by straightforward, that's 2 different things imo. That's a "skill" in of itself, but the math behind it is plainly straightforward with no particular issues for errors. A result doesn't change randomly, it changes depending on the move made by you and the player against you, as well as the cards on the table. With those factors the only ones affecting the end result, it's a pretty straightforward calculation. Knowing said calculation does not guarantee a win though, since in the first place, the basis of the calculations is probabilities, and there isn't any 100% guarantee anywhere imo.

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Quote from: jademaxsuy on November 26, 2020, 10:53:23 PM

I love to play poker too and usually when I get 4 of a kind cards depending on the number or straight flush then I will go all in. This is what I am always winning at poker and I feel lucky if I had this cards. However it may also sometimes difficult to obtain and get coward sometimes when someone will call huge bet . Poker is an easy game to play but the problem is that you can get emotional in the process of betting either you need to let go of your decisions to call or not every roundswl with bets that can go higher and higher each round and that is one pressure you could get when playing poker.

You just have to play it cool, don't go all-in immediately after getting good cards. I usually try to wait for someone to make a raise (if 6-7 people are playing at the table - most likely someone will do it) and then I call, and then I make my own raise, but gradually, not far different from the opponent's raise, and try to look cautious as if my cards aren't that good.
I also found that in online poker people tend to go all-in and make larger bets more often, so I think it's easier to win with good cards online. Plus no one can see your happy face, I personally have problems with hiding that one Cheesy

FontSeli

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Quote from: TopT3ns on November 28, 2020, 06:26:16 PM

Quote from: FontSeli on November 28, 2020, 06:20:45 PM

All such tables only reflect average figures and do not need to be treated as something very accurate. However, it is quite possible to estimate the chances of falling out of a particular combination of cards.
In general, sometimes it seems to me that the chances of getting good cards by the opponent are much higher than mine. Cheesy

the problem is when we do the recording method of everything that has been played sometimes if we start again what the machine produces is not the same because I believe they have installed a script to read the cards we have and not poker gambling is not as honest as you might imagine, because if it is easy to guess and always wins, it will make online poker bankrupt.

Play poker only on proven platforms and there will be no risk that someone is playing against you dishonestly and is able to see the cards in your hand.
I know many regular players use special programs that collect statistics for their opponents. How many times and at what stage the opponent has won, how often all-in and so on. You can also install a program that will record the results of your pranks and help you then analyze your typical mistakes. But these programs can't show you other people's cards.

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Quote from: FontSeli on November 28, 2020, 06:20:45 PM

All such tables only reflect average figures and do not need to be treated as something very accurate. However, it is quite possible to estimate the chances of falling out of a particular combination of cards.
In general, sometimes it seems to me that the chances of getting good cards by the opponent are much higher than mine. Cheesy

the problem is when we do the recording method of everything that has been played sometimes if we start again what the machine produces is not the same because I believe they have installed a script to read the cards we have and not poker gambling is not as honest as you might imagine, because if it is easy to guess and always wins, it will make online poker bankrupt.

FontSeli

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Quote from: KTChampions on November 28, 2020, 05:33:46 PM

This is a very useful spreadsheet, but in fact it is not correct. It was created on the assumption that the opponent has random cards in his hands. In fact, if you have two aces, your opponent will call your bet (which you must raise very seriously) with cards that are much better than the average.

All such tables only reflect average figures and do not need to be treated as something very accurate. However, it is quite possible to estimate the chances of falling out of a particular combination of cards.
In general, sometimes it seems to me that the chances of getting good cards by the opponent are much higher than mine. Cheesy

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Quote from: Globb0 on November 27, 2020, 06:24:04 AM

What I was thinking of was more something like this

I would actually use that or similar in very fast small stacked hyper games.

Like 16(4) 2x knock out

There is no time for poker patience, you really just need to wey up your hand. The visual helps assign a value for me

This is a very useful spreadsheet, but in fact it is not correct. It was created on the assumption that the opponent has random cards in his hands. In fact, if you have two aces, your opponent will call your bet (which you must raise very seriously) with cards that are much better than the average.

DoublerHunter

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^ Most of the gamblers including poker players are into skills for they know that strategies and techniques can bring a higher chance of winning to them especially when they are already in the game and I must admit I am one of them. Though I love numbers it is true that only a few were still able to do the math and the probability while playing poker or unconsciously we still do but emotions are more dominant during the game that subsequently we forget it easily or we tend not to pay much attention to it, just maybe. Nevertheless, I want to thanks, OP for this thread it reminds me of my ratio and probability topic in Math back in my school days it nudges me to consistently use it in gambling.

FontSeli

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Quote from: johhnyUA on November 27, 2020, 05:24:56 PM

~
5 % it's too high chance man

Are you laughing, Johnny? 5% is a high probability? Would you bet in a casino if there was only a 5% chance of winning?
Personally, I think 5% is a very small chance of winning that in poker that in any other game. I just had very bad luck that day.

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Quote from: Lorence.xD on November 27, 2020, 10:30:53 PM

Quote from: jademaxsuy on November 26, 2020, 10:53:23 PM

I love to play poker too and usually when I get 4 of a kind cards depending on the number or straight flush then I will go all in. This is what I am always winning at poker and I feel lucky if I had this cards. However it may also sometimes difficult to obtain and get coward sometimes when someone will call huge bet. Poker is an easy game to play but the problem is that you can get emotional in the process of betting either you need to let go of your decisions to call or not every roundswl with bets that can go higher and higher each round and that is one pressure you could get when playing poker.

You are not trained to play pro so it is okay, my advice is not to go all in when you get a good card, try to bet little by little to bait the other players into thinking that you are bluffing, when you get that kind of card, it is always worth it to lose your money. You can watch pro players held a high hand and bait others into playing all the way.

No matter what his card, if he is not a pro poker player, he should not use a big bet because he will meet a pro poker player who has high skills in a poker game.
If he uses big money to bet, he will have a chance to lose because a pro poker player will have more experience in that game.
It will no problem if he only wins some little money in a poker game because he should not chase the winning.
He should always remember that he is not a pro poker player, and it is better to play safely in any gambling games.
Even if he can bluffing another opponent, that doesn't mean he can do the bluff to all players because I am sure that all of the players will have the way to anticipate that.

Topic: Poker Probability - page 2. (Read 1171 times)