PREDICTION IS SOMETIMES LIKE A FALSE PROMISE - page 6.

Betwrong

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Quote from: Naida_BR on January 09, 2019, 07:24:15 AM

~, there are many indications of stocks that can show how they are going to move and not only by just looking at historical trends at the charts.
If the CEO of a company decides to close a department then the stock price is going to fall.

That's why I say that the stock market is also unpredictable. When a news like this shows up, it's already too late to sell your stocks without a loss.

Quote from: Naida_BR on January 09, 2019, 07:24:15 AM

Do you think the same is going to happen if a node decides to shut down?

Bitcoin has around 10,000 nods, so shutting down a node is more like closing one small section in one of their 506 stores around the world for Apple. No one would have noticed.

markovicmarge

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not good to base decision on predictions.. it's a hit or miss thing.

millensharon8

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Quote from: Finestream on January 06, 2019, 07:26:05 PM

Quote from: Akoldi_ibk on January 06, 2019, 05:52:38 PM

As long as bitcoin high volatility hasn't been addressed; pumps and dumps and high rates of manipulation still at large, 95% of all predictions will still be untrue. Not because proper analysis wasn't done before the predictions were reached but because of other factors beyond the control of the predictors (experts alike). That is why it is very dangerous to make trading decisions solely on predictions.

Right.I agree on you.No one can tell exactly what will really happen in the future since bitcoin is still constantly changing because of its high volatility.But still there are a lot of predictions appear even in the start of the year.There's no harm in always believing from different predictions as long as you also do your part.Like in trading,you have to be more focused on the movement of the market and even on the coins itself,those potential ones and those who don't even have value from the start.

Predictions were never even meant to be a promise, they are just basically a means of anticipating what could actually end up happening in a market position as the case may be. The thing is that a lot of people usually assume that when it comes to predictions, they should always be right, but in the real sense, if predictions were meant to be 100% right, there would have been no need for stop losses.

tonyvo2017

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Quote from: akihikohideaki on January 02, 2019, 07:55:39 AM

Last year saw many people predict BTC year-end prices, but nothing was validated with time. it is very difficult for BTC to reach predictable prices. Future price predictions fail to consider many factors and problems that may occur over time. Maybe, we can only estimate the value of assets for the next few days like weather experts.

You will not even know what the price of tomorrow is because the future is never predictable.
So instead of guessing the price, we should analyze more about the technology value of altcoins for long-term investment. That would be a good way.

Naida_BR

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Quote from: Betwrong on January 09, 2019, 07:18:12 AM

Quote from: ralle14 on January 08, 2019, 10:40:49 PM

Quote from: greeklogos on January 08, 2019, 04:05:04 PM

Totally right! I remember there were a lot of topics in November about users prediction of bitcoin's price by the end of the year. And it was hard to predict bitcoin's move a month far. All of those analysts and calculations lead us novhere, cause of bitcoin seemed unpredictable.

Even if one of them got it correctly it won't lead us anywhere and it's expected that most of them aren't accurate.
~

That's right, out of many predictions some become true, but it doesn't mean they were made by people who really knew what's going to happen. To me, it's more like a lottery, when someone wins we shouldn't think he/she is an expert who knows how to pick the right numbers. What I find funny is that people saying, Bitcoin market is unpredictable, as if Stock Market is. If it was so no one would be working anymore, but would be only buying the "right stocks" becoming wealthier and wealthier.

Bitcoin is unpredictable because it can't be manipulated. On the contrary, there are many indications of stocks that can show how they are going to move and not only by just looking at historical trends at the charts.
If the CEO of a company decides to close a department then the stock price is going to fall. Do you think the same is going to happen if a node decides to shut down?

Betwrong

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Quote from: ralle14 on January 08, 2019, 10:40:49 PM

Quote from: greeklogos on January 08, 2019, 04:05:04 PM

Totally right! I remember there were a lot of topics in November about users prediction of bitcoin's price by the end of the year. And it was hard to predict bitcoin's move a month far. All of those analysts and calculations lead us novhere, cause of bitcoin seemed unpredictable.

Even if one of them got it correctly it won't lead us anywhere and it's expected that most of them aren't accurate.
~

That's right, out of many predictions some become true, but it doesn't mean they were made by people who really knew what's going to happen. To me, it's more like a lottery, when someone wins we shouldn't think he/she is an expert who knows how to pick the right numbers. What I find funny is that people saying, Bitcoin market is unpredictable, as if Stock Market is. If it was so no one would be working anymore, but would be only buying the "right stocks" becoming wealthier and wealthier.

Escf4

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Quote from: Lexurdania on January 09, 2019, 02:52:25 AM

Quote from: akihikohideaki on January 02, 2019, 07:55:39 AM

Last year saw many people predict BTC year-end prices, but nothing was validated with time. it is very difficult for BTC to reach predictable prices. Future price predictions fail to consider many factors and problems that may occur over time. Maybe, we can only estimate the value of assets for the next few days like weather experts.

Prediction and analysis could be wrong in any market. I am believe no one expecting this bear market and the price drop below $3500 because anyone think bitcoin will reach $50k like few expert predicted. Many fake news in 2018 and its make investor panic with market condition but i am believe cryptomarket will survive and bounce back

That is true about predictions and speculations, they are created only by the mind for the future observations , but we can not really rely for it , because sometimes it will not be true and sometimes it will be real, this is what happens to many predictions in cryptocurrency market now, that has a lot of predictions for its price value , but as always ,we are hoping that the good prediction will be true and realized.

Lexurdania

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Quote from: akihikohideaki on January 02, 2019, 07:55:39 AM

Last year saw many people predict BTC year-end prices, but nothing was validated with time. it is very difficult for BTC to reach predictable prices. Future price predictions fail to consider many factors and problems that may occur over time. Maybe, we can only estimate the value of assets for the next few days like weather experts.

Prediction and analysis could be wrong in any market. I am believe no one expecting this bear market and the price drop below $3500 because anyone think bitcoin will reach $50k like few expert predicted. Many fake news in 2018 and its make investor panic with market condition but i am believe cryptomarket will survive and bounce back

jhongzjhong

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Quote from: nur rochid on January 09, 2019, 02:22:34 AM

Quote from: BeGoods on January 09, 2019, 12:08:56 AM

Quote from: mriansa on January 08, 2019, 01:41:18 AM

lots of predictions that are not too precise sometimes their predictions miss too much or too little and you should be able to avoid some channels that have such predictions because maybe you will be stuck at an expensive price, or if you want to take advantage of existing predictions then maybe you can use it by taking the price in the middle of the predicted.

Come on nowadays any user can speak freely. they can speculate and predict the price of a coin based on their calculations or desires. thats why many predictions are missed because there are users who are not capable doing speculating. we must be smarter in sorting out good predictions.

I think every prediction is worth our appreciation, because no one knows the certainty in the future. there are many predictions coming out of everyone, and a lot of mistakes in 2018, but we should take lessons from it all

As what they have said above, predictions are just guessing only and this is not the main fact at all. You can gather references them but you can't rely on their statement. Even those people claiming their selves as an expert in predictions but now, they are failed on guessing in Bitcoin price movement. Just simple comparing previous graph price and then make predictions whereas every one of us having a perspective prediction.

nur rochid

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Quote from: BeGoods on January 09, 2019, 12:08:56 AM

Quote from: mriansa on January 08, 2019, 01:41:18 AM

lots of predictions that are not too precise sometimes their predictions miss too much or too little and you should be able to avoid some channels that have such predictions because maybe you will be stuck at an expensive price, or if you want to take advantage of existing predictions then maybe you can use it by taking the price in the middle of the predicted.

Come on nowadays any user can speak freely. they can speculate and predict the price of a coin based on their calculations or desires. thats why many predictions are missed because there are users who are not capable doing speculating. we must be smarter in sorting out good predictions.

I think every prediction is worth our appreciation, because no one knows the certainty in the future. there are many predictions coming out of everyone, and a lot of mistakes in 2018, but we should take lessons from it all

wuvdoll

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Quote from: BeGoods on January 09, 2019, 12:08:56 AM

Come on nowadays any user can speak freely. they can speculate and predict the price of a coin based on their calculations or desires. thats why many predictions are missed because there are users who are not capable doing speculating. we must be smarter in sorting out good predictions.

If you speak on your own desire, hopefully no one will follow you after certain amount of time. I mean to say only when you remain accurate, there will be some support for your predictions and basically for all your actions. Moreover, you cannot speak anything freely but only with the support of enough evidence, meaning of freedom of speech doesn't mean like you said. Here in this forum people are speculating only based on their own analysis/calculations. At the same time we cannot do anything about when a prediction goes wrong or hitting perfectly, for both the cases.

Prediction and speculations are only guidelines and should not be taken as accurate calls for trading purposes. It is always emphasized here, people should go for their own analysis for trading but to get the overall idea about the market and its direction they may use what people do suggest here.

BeGoods

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Quote from: mriansa on January 08, 2019, 01:41:18 AM

lots of predictions that are not too precise sometimes their predictions miss too much or too little and you should be able to avoid some channels that have such predictions because maybe you will be stuck at an expensive price, or if you want to take advantage of existing predictions then maybe you can use it by taking the price in the middle of the predicted.

Come on nowadays any user can speak freely. they can speculate and predict the price of a coin based on their calculations or desires. thats why many predictions are missed because there are users who are not capable doing speculating. we must be smarter in sorting out good predictions.

ralle14

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Quote from: greeklogos on January 08, 2019, 04:05:04 PM

Totally right! I remember there were a lot of topics in November about users prediction of bitcoin's price by the end of the year. And it was hard to predict bitcoin's move a month far. All of those analysts and calculations lead us novhere, cause of bitcoin seemed unpredictable.

Even if one of them got it correctly it won't lead us anywhere and it's expected that most of them aren't accurate.

Quote from: Gridness on January 07, 2019, 02:42:55 AM

prediction is still a prediction, no one can accurately estimate the right BTC price, but in my opinion it can be seen from the existing btc historical chart and from that graph we can estimate where the current BTC price is

Looking at the charts because there's a certain pattern can be misleading. The whales could ruin that pattern by manipulating the prices. We can use it as a guide but I wouldn't rely on the old price trends that much.

basty03

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Quote from: akihikohideaki on January 02, 2019, 07:55:39 AM

Last year saw many people predict BTC year-end prices, but nothing was validated with time. it is very difficult for BTC to reach predictable prices. Future price predictions fail to consider many factors and problems that may occur over time. Maybe, we can only estimate the value of assets for the next few days like weather experts.

Well we cant not know what will be happen anytime that's why theres a prediction and speculation but still time will say what will be happen to us in the crypto and what will happen in crypto. We are the still can decide for everything it comes in our investment in crypto.

tidus1097

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If a trader relies on prediction, then yes, it's a false promise.
But if they use prediction as a reference to scale their targets then, no it's not.

Human beings by nature predicts on various different things. Prediction will always occur no matter how things progress with time. Similarly predictions to Bitcoin pricing will continue.

greeklogos

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Totally right! I remember there were a lot of topics in November about users prediction of bitcoin's price by the end of the year. And it was hard to predict bitcoin's move a month far. All of those analysts and calculations lead us novhere, cause of bitcoin seemed unpredictable.

South Park

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Quote from: Akoldi_ibk on January 06, 2019, 05:52:38 PM

As long as bitcoin high volatility hasn't been addressed; pumps and dumps and high rates of manipulation still at large, 95% of all predictions will still be untrue. Not because proper analysis wasn't done before the predictions were reached but because of other factors beyond the control of the predictors (experts alike). That is why it is very dangerous to make trading decisions solely on predictions.

There is nothing to address, the volatility of bitcoin will have to decrease on their own and with time it will but even with the volatility there have been cases of people getting their predictions right but as time passes I think they were just lucky, after all if there are a million predictions about what the price of bitcoin will do some of those are bound to be right.

Harley29

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Quote from: DonFacundo on January 08, 2019, 06:26:27 AM

well they thought that the year ends will pump the prices of cryptos just like happened in the year 2017, the month of December was pump that time so they predict that it will be the same of 2018, but nothings happen so we should move on now and be positive this year.

Well mate no year remain the same it must get change so I am holding for making distance with those who are spreading and making bad prediction just to distract us. I can hold because I have no doubt about the ability of the coin I am holding I invested to earn. I think I will get positive output at the end of 2019.

eaglewhite80

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Quote from: Gridness on January 07, 2019, 02:42:55 AM

Quote from: akihikohideaki on January 02, 2019, 07:55:39 AM

Last year saw many people predict BTC year-end prices, but nothing was validated with time. it is very difficult for BTC to reach predictable prices. Future price predictions fail to consider many factors and problems that may occur over time. Maybe, we can only estimate the value of assets for the next few days like weather experts.

prediction is still a prediction, no one can accurately estimate the right BTC price, but in my opinion it can be seen from the existing btc historical chart and from that graph we can estimate where the current BTC price is

The thing about being a trader in any market is to always plan ahead on possibilities while managing risks at the same time. Market are meant to be predicted on what could happen, but predictions are not meant to be relied on completely no matter how well or much you think you are right or you believe the market will move in the direction you think. It is a market, and it will always be unpredictable, but the thing is that with some analysis, you can make some assumptions which can be considered as predictions, but they are just speculations and that is all we basically do as retail traders or investors.

Rebisco

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Quote from: harizen on January 02, 2019, 02:30:20 PM

Quote from: akihikohideaki on January 02, 2019, 07:55:39 AM

Last year saw many people predict BTC year-end prices, but nothing was validated with time. it is very difficult for BTC to reach predictable prices. Future price predictions fail to consider many factors and problems that may occur over time. Maybe, we can only estimate the value of assets for the next few days like weather experts.

That's why predictions and speculations must just be consider as reference and not as a main factor when making a certain strategy. It will just ruined the whole analyzation if people will based on it purely.

Speculations and predictions at most of the cases always gotten spoil by a certain sudden trend that will come.

Don't blame the prediction itself why people got disappointed. It's depend on our own hands how to deal with the market. Being optimistic and true believer is not enough. People have to do something in order to gained even on a bearish market.

Prediction is not always correct, do not believe to the prediction of the others. Do you know why many traders who keep losing their money? it is because they are believing to the misinformation that keep spreading in the market.

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