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Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay - page 12. (Read 25352 times)

legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1014
December 08, 2015, 12:35:48 PM
#29
The Bitcoin community doesn't really care when stuff like Blythe Masters going on some mainstream magazine talking about the blockchain in the cover because anyone that consider himself part of the Bitcoin community and wants a good outcome for Bitcoin considers this an enemy. In any case, all publicity is good so let them do their blockchain technology promoting thing.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
December 08, 2015, 11:38:26 AM
#28
Next year will be another important year when it comes to the marijuana legalization in USA, as Californians will probably once again weigh in on this issue. In 2010, Proposition 19 would have made this state the first in the country to legalize marijuana, but voters defeated the measure by a 53.5-46.5 margin.

But, from then on four other states (Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska) have gone on to legalize cannabis, so many suspect California is ready to do likewise. And it could be really important voting as California represents one of the world’s largest economies all on its own, so if cannabis is legalized, it will have a dramatic effect across the country.

Recently, it is a really popular topic as, in California's race to legitimize recreational marijuana, at least 10 legalization initiatives are vying to appear on the state’s November 2016 ballot. So, if you have your own opinion you have now open market on this issue as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
December 07, 2015, 12:22:19 PM
#27
As he comes into his final 13 months as President, Obama is once again under the pressure to close Guantanamo Bay prison. He has long held a deep personal conviction on the issue, dating back to his days as a senator. He has argued repeatedly that the prison at Guantanamo provides fodder for extremist propaganda, damages relations with allies, and violates America’s values.

But even after so many years, he did not close it, though since Obama took office, the administration has gradually cut the number of detainees by more than half, from 242 to 112. But at the same time, more than 50 detainees have been cleared for release for years because they pose no danger, yet have remained locked away in cages in some sort of legal limbo.

Nowadays, experts are divided over whether Obama actually has the constitutional authority to take action on Guantanamo, and whether he will wait for election to pass to do that. Anyway, it is a popular topic so now you have an open market on it https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/obama-to-close-guantanamo-before-leaving-office/ and please express your opinions on this market and suggest additional markets on US Politics.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
December 04, 2015, 10:09:28 AM
#26
'Russia Accuses Turkey of Smuggling ISIS Oil. Turkey Replies: No, You Are.'

Some think that we have a lot of child's play these days between Russia and Turkey, but other think that things could get even more serious. For now, Turkish President Erdogan was accused that he and his family are involved in this criminal business, so he is in a hard situation right now and thus here is the market on whether he will remain the president of Turkey through 2016, even being elected last year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/erdogan-to-remain-the-president-of-turkey-through-2016-2/.

Other talking topic is about Turkey and NATO, and will Turkey call a NATO Article four consultation once again, after she already did that in July. In the six decades since NATO’s creation, Article 4 has been invoked only five times, three of which were by Turkey. So, if you think that there are chances that Turkey will invoke Article 4 once again before March 1, here is a market for you: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/turkey-to-invoke-natos-article-4-before-march-1-2016-1/.

So, what are your opinions on these markets and do you have suggestions for other markets when it comes to the current situation between Turkey and Russia?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
December 03, 2015, 08:37:16 AM
#25
One of the interesting election in 2016 will be that for the next United Nations Secretary-General that will determine who will succeed Ban Ki-moon whose term will conclude on 31 December 2016. Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General.

But even more talked topic is that that raises the question of the next UN Secretary-General for the first time being a woman. For now, more of the potential candidates talked about are women, like Dalia Grybauskaite, Dilma Rousseff, or even Angela Merkel. If you also believe that the next Secretary-General will be a woman, you now have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

So, what is your opinion about this market, and do you believe that the winner of this election will be also from the Eastern European Group?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
December 02, 2015, 02:32:53 PM
#24
A lot of US Presidential Election markets has been created  but what about the US Senate election? It will also be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, with Democrats expected to have 10 seats up for election, while Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

So, it will be interesting to see can Republicans keep the majority in Senate they gained in the previous election, or can Hillary influence Democrats to gain back the majority in Senate. If you have an opinion who will have the majority after the next election, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-keep-a-senate-majority-after-the-2016-election/.

And what are you other opinions about the US Election, and are there some other markets you would like to see open?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
December 01, 2015, 08:45:05 AM
#23
"On Syria, there is no great national benefit for Russia in Assad remaining indefinitely in office, and there is no great national benefit for the U.S. in forcing him to quit instantly, and there is also a shared interest in avoiding a major U.S.-Russia collision. I may be naive but I think this is one of those situations in which the stakes are not that dramatic," said few days ago for Politico Zbigniew Brzezinski.

So, some think that situation about Bashar al-Assad is not so dramatic and that he should stay the president of Syria for the time being, with the next presidential election scheduled for 2021 (he was elected in June last year). But others think that the situation with ISIS is not going in his favor so he won't stay for long as the head of the country. Because of this, you now have open market on whether Bashar al-Assad will remain the president of Syria through 2016: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bashar-al-assad-to-remain-the-president-of-syria-through-2016/

What are your opinions on this market? Do you think that both Russia and US will agree to keep him as president, or is one year more just too much for Assad? And, do you have any suggestions when it comes to the markets about the world politics?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 30, 2015, 10:53:15 AM
#22
One of the topics that is often emerging is that about the relationship between Russia and Bitcoin. It was often talked that Bitcoin was banned in Russia but, though not being widely accepted, it was never criminalised. So, it is still safe to be a crypto enthusiasts in Russia but sadly it not sure for how long.

In a recent interview for the CoinDesk, deputy finance minister Alexey Moiseev told that the Ministry was working on a draft law that would seek to punish those converting cryptocurrencies into the ruble with up to four years in prison. That draft is now being reviewed by the Cabinet, and will then be submitted to the Russia's Parliament for final approval.

As Bitcoin could be criminalised in Russia and this often being talked about, you now have an open market about this topic: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-to-be-outlawed-in-russia-in-2016-1/. So, do you think that Bitcoin will be outlawed in Russia in 2016 or do you think that even in this country it has a positive future?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 27, 2015, 11:00:53 AM
#21
One of the following elections that is also popular these days is the French presidential election scheduled for April and May of 2017. Latest pools are showing that Sarkozy starts to lose some of the support that goes to Marine Le Pen, Manuel Valls, but also to Alain Juppe. Francois Hollande is also not without the chances so the next French presidential election is going to be really even one. Here is the current market: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 26, 2015, 10:39:06 AM
#20
Tensions rise in the Middle East after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane, and Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing Turkey of being "the terrorists' accomplices" for shooting down a plane he claimed was on an anti-terrorism mission.

But at the same time, daughter of the Putin's slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said that Kremlin critics live in fear under President Vladimir Putin but there will come a time when Russia is ready for a new brand of politician. The next presidential elections in Russia will take place in March 2018, and now you have open market if Vladimir Putin will be reelected as the President of Russia: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/vladimir-putin-to-be-reelected-as-the-president-of-russia/.

At the moment, there are still big chances that Putin will be reelected once again, though his current political decisions could change a lot. What is your opinion on this, and would you like to see some other markets connected with the current political affairs in the world?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 25, 2015, 11:07:40 AM
#19
Okay, Star Wars fans, we are less than a month away from the opening of The Force Awakens, and I am sure you will go to see it in the cinema as early as you can. But, how many people will do that and do you think that The Force Awakens can become the highest-grossing movie of all time?

If you think that it can go above Avatar that had a worldwide gross of $2,787,965,087, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-avatar/. But if you think that $2.8 Billion is a bit too much, you can predict that it will go above (or stay above) the worldwide gross of $1.8 Billion: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-1-8-billion/.

Anyway, we are almost there and it is time to enjoy great movie months and, of course, you can already go through the Oscars' markets https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/oscars/all/ and suggest your own as well. So, any opinions?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 23, 2015, 02:29:22 PM
#18
Next year we have US presidential election, scheduled for November 8th, with Hillary Clinton having the biggest chances to be the next Democratic President. Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are with the biggest chances when it comes to the Republicans, while you can see the complete betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-president-17/.

So, it is still far from sure who of the Republicans will go against Hillary who will surely be a Democratic nominee. More will be known with the Iowa caucus on February 1st that will serve as an early indication of which candidates for president might win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, and which ones could drop out for lack of support.

Ben Carson, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz are with then even chances to win the Iowa caucus for now, but if you think that Marco Rubio could win it as well, you can find betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-republican-winner/. At the same time, Hillary is with the big chances to be the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus, with Bernie Sanders having some chances: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-democratic-winner/.

One week after Iowa caucus, we will have the New Hampshire primary on February 9th and it will be interesting to see will those results confirm those of Iowa Caucus. For now, Sanders is given rather solid chances when it comes to the Democrats in the New Hampshire primary so he could be rather even with Hillary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-democratic-winner/. As for the Republicans, it will again be tight, though Trump and Rubio are at the moment with the even chances to win the New Hampshire primary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-republican-winner/.

All in all, Iowa and New Hampshire do not have too many voters but with the huge media coverage they can always be an early indicators of what will follow for the rest of the year, before November 8th. What are you thoughts about these, and are there some other US Presidential Election markets that you would like to see?
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1017
November 21, 2015, 02:00:54 PM
#17
Well, I deposited into a prediction market I heard about on the Devcon stream but it wasn't what it claimed.  I'm not so sure about prediction markets anymore.  I own some Augur Rep so I'll just stick to the reporting side of things....Beware of the Gnosis prediction market using Ethereum; it sent my Ether into a cyber void!  Fitting, smile, I lost me Ether in the ether.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 21, 2015, 08:09:42 AM
#16
When we put entertainment and sports together, there are not many events as popular as the Royal Rumble. This professional wrestling event, produced every January by WWE, had some extremely negative audience reaction last time and #CancelWWENetwork became the top Twitter trend worldwide shortly after the event.

So, in will be interesting to see what will WWE do in two months. Will they once again go with the last winner Roman Reigns, or maybe with the crowd favorite Daniel Bryan. On the other side, Brock Lesnar and Dean Ambrose are two main favorites, but John Cena is always there. If you have your favorite for the another spectacular Royal Rumble you can find the markets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/wwe-royal-rumble-2016-match/
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 20, 2015, 09:39:08 AM
#15
With AndreasMAntonopoulos tweeting yesterday "US and allies funded ISIS against Assad, provided weapons, provided training and now will blame bitcoin for the blowback.", there has been even more talk about Bitcoin being banned, especially being banned in Europe.

So, regarding these talks, now you have an open market 'Will Bitcoin be banned in Europe in 2016?' that resolves to Yes, if on December 31st 2016 Bitstamp.net, Kraken.com and Bitcoin.de are out of business or do not allow more than 50% of its existing European individual customers to buy and sell Bitcoins for fiat currency.

If you are one of those thinking that there are even slightly chances that this could happed, than you have great odds at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bitcoin-be-banned-in-europe-in-2016/.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 19, 2015, 09:18:36 AM
#14
After creating more serious Augur markets, that you can find at https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/bitcoin/augur/all/ here are some for those in love with the beautiful woman and Christmas charts.

There are huge chances that the X Factor 2015 winner will also be the UK Christmas Number One Single of 2015 but some think that Adele has some chances to beat that winner, or even late Cilla Black or Aurora. Maybe you have some other favorites so you can bet on them at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/uk-christmas-number-one-single-2015/.

And few days before the Christmas, we will have another Miss World competition, and if you don't have exact favorite you have a market for the Region of the Winner. Europe is currently a bit ahead but other regions have beautiful ladies in contention as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/miss-world-2015-winner-by-region/.

Do you have some more entertainment markets that you would like to see, or some more economics or politics markets, like those in connection with Augur?
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 18, 2015, 07:23:07 AM
#13
For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

As Augur is a popular topic these days, there are now few betting markets that could be especially interesting for you and those already owning Reputation tokens.

It is still not confirmed when will Augur have its live release so you can place bet that it will be before or after the March 1st next year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augur-be-launched-till-march-1st-2016-2/

At the moment, Gatecoin has a REPBTC price at 0.00455, so if you think that the Augur’s reputation token (REP) price will be at least 0.005 BTC on February 15th 2016. Or not: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-february-15th-2016-1/

And, as Augur will probably be launched after the February 15th, and you have ideas that the price will go up and down in the months following its release, you have a market on its value on January 1st 2017. If you are sure it will be above or under 0.005 on that date, you have a betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-january-1st-2017/

Anyway, Augur is an interesting topic, so some additional markets about the value of the investment in it are going to be released as well.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 14, 2015, 11:33:55 AM
#12
Ten days ago, we got the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership explained on Medium, it even had it Introduction written by Mr. Obama, so it was once again shown that implementing the TPP has been one of the trade agenda goals of the Obama administration in the US.

Both before and after that, there were a lot of talk about the TPP, for those being positive in the US it is 'leveling the playing field for American workers & American businesses' but for others, like EFF 'this is secretive, multi-national trade agreement that threatens to extend restrictive intellectual property (IP) laws across the globe and rewrite international rules on its enforcement, and it will do so in a way that will have extensive negative ramifications for users’ freedom of speech, privacy, access to information, and ability to innovate.'

I am sure that you already have your opinion but do you think that the US Congress will be able to ratify TPP, and even more, do you think that it will be able to ratify TPP before 1 July 2016, as many think that Congress could vote on the bill either during the Summer of 2016 or in the lame-duck session after the 2016 elections. Anyway if you are sure that it will or will not be ratified before 1 July 2016, you have opened betting markets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/us-congress-to-ratify-tpp-before-1-july-2016-2/.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 12, 2015, 02:06:12 PM
#11
One of the popular awards at the end of the year is the BBC Sports Personality Of The Year.

This year Jessica Ennis-Hill, track and field athlete who is the current Olympic and world heptathlon champion, has the best chances to get the award but nothing is yet done as Andy Murray still has time to become hero of the year.

Lewis Hamilton, Chris Froome, Mo Farah, Wayne Rooney are also in contention, well, as many others athletes. We have a month more till the closing of these popular SPOTY awards, so if you believe in Ennis-Hill, Murray or someone else, you can see markets and place you bets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bbc-sports-personality-of-the-year-2015/
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 250
November 11, 2015, 09:08:12 AM
#10
'Put that you were Time's 2006 person of the year on your CV. In 2006, Time made "Everyone" the person of the year.'

It is true and that 2006 award was named one of the ten most controversial "Person of the Year" moments in the history of Time. So once again, at the start of the December Time will announce its "Person of the Year" winner. Last year we had Ebola fighters, before that Pope Francis, Barack Obama, and also The Protester in 2011.

This year betting markets favour the Migrants/the Refugees so once again group of people could get the award, but it could also go to Alexis Tsipras, Angela Merkel, Caitlyn Jenner, Taylor Swift, Elon Musk, or once again Obama, Putin, or Pope Francis. And, to anyone else. This award will not change a lot but in the future it will remind us how was 2015, so who would you like to see as the "Person of the Year"?
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