Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay - page 11. (Read 25361 times)

Assuming that bitcoin remains the most popular token to run the blockchain and transaction volumes continue to rise, the next few years should be spectacular for the price of bitcoin.

While 2015 was a relatively calm year for the price, it seems likely that 2016 will be much more action-packed with the block halving next summer, where the amount of bitcoins awarded to miners roughly every 10 minutes will be cut in half.

We’ve laid down the tracks so to speak, allowing for there to be more confidence than ever before that bitcoin is, and can continue to be, a credible store of value.

With this in mind, I’ve decided to offer another price prediction for next year since I had some luck for this year. I believe bitcoin will surpass $500 by the middle of the year and average out to a $650 price range in the second half of the year.

Of course, there are too many unknown factors when predicting price to know with any certainty, but the maturing infrastructure has lead me to believe that next year will be an exciting one for investors.

Still, many of bitcoin’s best days come in reaction to world crises in places like Greece, China, and Argentina, meaning at the end of the day, there's no predicting where the price could go.

As we continue to patch up leaks in the global economy’s sinking ship, I have to wonder will 2016 also be the year we are reminded of why Satoshi created bitcoin in the first place.

BAFTAs 2016 – Will ‘The Revenant’ be the big winner?

Two weeks before Oscars we will have another movie awards introduction with the 69th British Academy Film Awards, more commonly known as the BAFTAs. The nominees were announced ten days ago, with ‘Bridge of Spies’ and ‘Carol’ both having the most nominations at nine each. But there is only one question, will ‘The Revenant’ be the big winner?



BAFTAs 2016 - Best Film
 
But though it could win it, ‘The Revenant’ is not the first favorite for the Best Film of the year, as the biggest chances are given to the ‘Spotlight’. Still, it means that you have better odds if you bet on ‘The Revenant’, while also great ones if you believe that ‘The Big Short’, ‘Bridge of Spies’, or even ‘Carol’. You have your favorite so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-film/


BAFTAs 2016 - Best Director

As for the Best Director award, the first favorite is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu with ‘The Revenant’, while the second one is Ridley Scott with ‘The Martian’. Adam McKay for ‘The Big Short’ has solid chances, while you have superb odds if you think Steven Spielberg for ‘Bridge of Spies’, or Todd Haynes for ‘Carol’ could win it. So bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-director/



BAFTAs 2016 - Best Actor

You have also great odds, if you think that the award for the Best Actor could go for anyone who is not Leonardo DiCaprio (‘The Revenant’). Other nominations are Eddie Redmayne (‘The Danish Girl’), Michael Fassbender ( ‘Steve Jobs’), Matt Damon (‘The Martian’), and Bryan Cranston (‘Trumbo’), all with the huge odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-actor/


BAFTAs 2016 - Best Actress

A bit more interesting are nominations for the Best Actress, though Brie Larson is rather favorite for her role in the ‘Room’, while she is followed with the young Saoirse Ronan for the lead role in ‘Brooklyn’. And if you trust Cate Blanchett (‘Carol’), Alicia Vikander (‘The Danish Girl’), or Maggie Smith (‘The Lady in the Van’) find your odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-actress/


All in all, when it comes to the movies awards, February is all but boring, and you also have enough time to watch the movies and give your opinions on these or similar markets that could be created. So which one would you like to see?

2016 Summer Olympics – Who will win most gold medals?

Today we are left with 200 Days more till the start of the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, so it is time to create first market for the main sporting event of this year. As usually, you are free to suggest any markets you would like to see when it comes to the winners of specific sports and disciplines.

For the start, you have the most general market about who will win most gold medals in Rio. After they won 46 gold medals in London 2012, most people think that hardly anyone can compete with the USA Olympic Team, so it is not surprise that the United States are the first favorite to win most gold medals.



Still, with 38 gold medals won in London, China Olympic Team is the one who could make a surprise winning most gold. They already did that at domestic Olympics in Beijing 2008 when they won 51 gold medals. They are second favorite, while there is almost no chances that any other country, even Russia or United Kingdom, could threaten USA and China.

All in all, with the respect to all the other countries, in the end it could be close battle between USA and China, and if you have your opinion who will be the winning nation at 2016 Olympics, you can already find your odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals/.

Razzies – Who are the biggest movie losers of the year?

The 88th Academy Awards ceremony will on February 28, 2016 honor the best films of 2015 and with the recent nominations Oscars are trending topic but right now we are interested February 27 – Oscar eve. That is the date when the 36th Golden Raspberry Awards will be held, awards that nobody wants to win as they honor the worst the film industry had to offer in the previous year.

Two days ago we got this year’s nominations revealed and all five films up for Worst Picture at this year's Awards are big budget productions that have no excuse for being among the year's "berry" worst. Still, they are there and you have an open market which movie will get Award for Worst Picture. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, Fifty Shades of Grey, Fantastic Four, Pixels, or Jupiter Ascending? Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/razzies-worst-picture/.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is so horrible that is not only the first favorite for the Worst Picture but its Kevin James is also the main favorite for the Worst Actor Award. But it won't be an easy job for him to win it as some other popular actors are nominated as well: Adam Sandler for two movies (The Cobbler and Pixels), Johnny Depp for Mortdecai, and Jamie Dornan for Fifty Shades of Grey, and Channing Tatum for Jupiter Ascending. Who do you prefer? Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/razzies-worst-actor/.

Yes, you are right. Fifty Shades of Grey was so awful that it also got nomination for the Worst Actress Award but Dakota Johnson is a second favorite at the moment, as Katherine Heigl for Home Sweet Hell has the biggest chances. Other nominations are popular and beautiful Jennifer Lopez for The Boy Next Door, Mila Kunis for Jupiter Ascending, and Gwyneth Paltrow for Mortdecai. They were all beautiful but who do you think was the worst? Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/razzies-worst-actress/.

Donald Trump to win the first four states – Is it really possible?

Few weeks ago, we were discussing will Donald Trump win any Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses, and now people are already talking how many will he win. Even before there was opinion that everything is possible if Donald Trump opens with the win in Iowa, or even follows it with another one in New Hampshire.

Thus, you now have new Donald Trump market and you have great odds if you believe in him. It is about Trump winning the presidential primaries and caucuses in the first four states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Can he really do it, or is everyone exaggerating his chances? We will find out in February, and until then bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/donald-trump-to-win-first-four-states/.

House Of Cards – To be the Next President

Two days ago, we got the TRAILER for the last season of the “House of Cards” TV series and with it we cannot wait anymore for the new season to be released on the Netflix. Actually, we have to wait, as we will get our new 13 episodes on March 4, 2016. But at least, we will get them all at once and as soon as possible we will know who will be the Next President.

“They say we get the leaders we deserve, I think America deserves Frank Underwood. And in your heart, you know I'm right,“ says Frank Underwood (played by Kevin Spacey) at the end of that last trailer and he is really the main favorite for the Next President. But this great series gave us some exciting twists so could someone else as the Next President be the new one?

Could Clare Underwood make her revenge in the best way possible, or could the Next President be Hector Mendoza who is potential Republican candidate and thus second favorite at the moment. Democratic candidate is Heather Dunbar and you also have great odds for other options if you think huge surprise is possible. It is fiction but superb fiction so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/house-of-cards-to-be-the-next-president-1/.

Dilma Rousseff to remain president of Brazil through 2016 – YES OR NO?

In 2011 Dilma Rousseff became Brazil’s first female president but less than five years later she is becoming the most hated president in Brazil's history. In the last few months thousands of protesters took to the streets across Brazil as at the same time Dilma's government struggles to lift the economy from its most severe crisis in decades.

Last week economists forcasted that Brazil heads for the worst recession since 1901, as Latin America’s largest economy could shrink 2.95 percent this year. So Brazil’s policy makers are struggling to control the fastest inflation in 12 years without further hamstringing a weak economy, and New Finance Minister didn't change much since December.

With all of this there is no doubt that protesters will continue to demand the ouster of President Dilma Rousseff. She already faces impeachment proceedings but they could drag for months so at the moment she is still slightly favored to survive (the next presidential election is in 2018) so if you are against her (or for her) you can find good odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/dilma-rousseff-to-remain-president-of-brazil-through-2016/.

To win the 2016 Nobel Prize in Literature – Murakami or someone else?

For the last few year, Japanese writer Haruki Murakami was the biggest favorite to win the Nobel Prize in Literature but he never won in. This October we will get new Nobel literature laureate and popular Murami is once again the biggest favorite.

But once again he could be skipped and for the time being second favorite is a Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o, while good chances are also given to an America writer Joyce Carol Oates. And if you don’t trust in any of them, odds on authors like Philip Roth, Adunis, Ismail Kadare, Jon Fosse, or any other you can find at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/to-win-the-2016-nobel-prize-in-literature/


To win the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize – is it time for Angela Merkel?

Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, whole European Union in 2012, Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet last year but now we have the question who will win it this year? At the moment most people think that it should be Angela Merkel and there is no need to say why would she need to win it.

But if you don’t think that Merkel will become Nobel laureate, then the second favorite is a global civil society coalition International Campaign To Abolish Nuclear Weapons. It is followed by Pope Francis and if you have some other favorites, then you can find all the odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/to-win-the-2016-nobel-peace-prize/

Guns N' Roses to play at Reading / Leeds 2016 Festival – YES OR NO?

First big music news in 2016 is the confirmation of the Guns N’ Roses Reunion as Axl Rose, Slash and Duff McKagan will play together at the Coachella Music & Arts Festival in April. We still lack more details about this reunion between Axl Rose, and Slash and McKagan who exited the band in 1993 but it surely a great news.

With this, there is a lot of speculation what will happen after Coachella and will they perform as well on some other Festivals. For now, the biggest chance for their Europe Reunion to happen is at Reading / Leeds Festival in August and thus you can now place your bets at Fairlay if you think they will actually perform there:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/guns-n-roses-to-play-at-reading-leeds-2016-festival/.


Guns N' Roses to play at Wembley before end of 2017 – YES OR NO?

There are also speculations that Axl and Slash could even go to the studio to record some new tracks and thus is would be a complete reunion. Still, we don’t now if they even talked with each other yet or this reunion was arranged by an army of lawyers and managers.

Anyway, if this reunion is a real thing and not a one-time gig (like Led Zeppelin did in 2007 and never after), they could easily follow with some studio work, more festivals and even a huge concert at Wembley. So, if you think that Guns N' Roses will play at Wembley before end of 2017 you can find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/guns-n-roses-to-play-at-wembley-before-end-of-2017/.

Rahm Emanuel to resign as Chicago mayor by April 15 – YES or NO?

On November 24, agruesome video of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald's fatal shooting at the hands of a Chicago police officer was released by the city’s police department on, more than a year after the shooting took place. Ever since then it was a trending topic, as well with the calls for the resignation of Rahm Emanuel, the Chicago mayor and former Obama chief of staff.

And, in late December, protesting intensified after officers fatally shot a man and a woman, one of whom is believed to have been mentally ill, in the city’s West Side. So much that Mayor Rahm Emanuel cut short a family vacation this past week and returned to a city in crisis with people who share opinions like: “Oh, it’s personal, all right. We’re making it personal.”

The protests reflect frustration with chronic problems Emanuel inherited in Chicago, a city long plagued by police brutality, failing schools, rampant gang violence and dire ­finances. But as Emanuel enters his second term, critics say he has deepened distrust in City Hall through a string of scandals affecting his administration, a lack of transparency and his abrasive personal style.

Although Emanuel built a reputation in Washington as a crisis manager and consummate fixer for two presidents, critics and friends alike say it remains unclear how, or whether, he will be able to fix this crisis. So, do you believe that Rahm Emanuel will resign as Chicago mayor by April 15? If you believe that this will happen, you have great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/rahm-emanuel-to-resign-as-chicago-mayor-by-april-15/.

After the Spanish general election was held on Sunday, trending topic in European politics these days is Who will be the next Spanish prime minister? At the moment, marathon political talks are expected before government can be formed but leftwing parties’ balance of power puts current prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s future in doubt.

Mariano Rajoy, leader of the the conservative People’s party, is still the first option for the next PM but without such a big chances as he had before Sunday. Especially as a Socialist-led coalition is shaping up to be the most likely to rule Spain. And with this Spain’s Socialist party leader Pedro Sanchez has good chances to become the next prime minister.

At Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister/ you have great odds if you think a third person will be the next PM of Spain. Also, Anti-austerity party Podemos said it would block any attempt by Rajoy to form a government. But Ciudadanos’s leader, Albert Rivera, said his party would abstain from the confidence vote to allow the PP to form a minority government.

All in all, in the coming weeks King Felipe VI will reach out to all parties to hear their positions and name the party that will have the chance to try and form a government. If the candidate fails to obtain an absolute majority, the king must put forward a new candidate. If no government is formed within two months, new elections must be held.

So, what is you opinion and who do you favor to the be the next Spanish prime minister?

Donald Trump is still a trending topic when it comes to the 2016 US Presidential Election. You already have open markets How much will Trump's campaign cost? and Will Trump to be a third party presidential candidate in 2016?, but now you have another market on whether people will actually trust him.

In US Presidential Election markets you can bet that he will be next President, that he will be Republican nominee, or even that he will win Iowa Caucus or New Hampshire Primary but now you can make even better bet by answering the questions Will Donald Trump win any Republican primaries or caucuses?

At the moment, at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-trump-win-any-republican-primaries-or-caucuses/ Trump has rather high chances to do this but a lot of people think that if he doesn't win Iowa Caucus or New Hampshire Primary, he will hardly win any after that. If you have that opinion as well, then you have great offer at the moment. And, of course, like always, you can suggest other markets that you would like to bet on.

It is almost certain that Leo Messi will win the FIFA Ballon d'Or award for the best football player of the year, so now the only question is can he add to it FIFA Puskas Award as well. This award is given to the player who have scored the most aesthetically significant, or "most beautiful", goal of the year.

That one Leo Messi scored against Athletic Bilbao is a thing of a beauty and he is surely the biggest favorite but two others left in competition are also superb. One is Alessandro Florenzi from Roma who scored it against Barcelona and other one Brazilian Wendell Lira.

Anyway, you can watch and vote for all the three goals HERE but what is more important, you can place your bets at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/fifa-puskas-award-winner/. FIFA Ballon d’Or 2015 Gala will be held on 11 January next year.

One of the popular topics regarding US Presidential Election is How much will Donald Trump's campaign cost? In August this year Trump said he's prepared to spend $1 billion on his campaign if necessary, and he does not have to worry about pleasing lobbyists like other candidates because his race is self-funded.

Still, MSNBC's Ari Melber reported in October that Trump has only spent about $2 million till that moment on his campaign, and that it is far less than his top-tier rivals on both sides of the aisle:



So, what do you think total of Trump's campaign costs will be? And this includes spendings on both his primaries and general election campaigns. It will surely be far from that $1 billion but will it stay under $25 million or be much bigger, even more than $150 milllion? Find your odds on seven different options here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-much-will-donald-trumps-campaign-cost-1/.

One of the most popular awards ceremonies in music industry is that of Annual Grammy Awards, and the 2016 Grammy Awards ceremony will be held on Monday, February 15, 2016 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Ten days ago, nominations were released, and now you can bet on the main three categories. And please suggest if you would like to see more markets created for Grammys or any other Awards ceremonies.

Album of the Year will probably be decided between '1989' by Taylor Swift and 'To Pimp A Butterfly' by Kendrick Lemar. Though, your favorite could be 'Beauty Behind The Madness' by The Weekend so you can find great odds at that one here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-album-of-the-year/.

The Weekend is also the third favorite when it comes to the Record Of The Year for 'Can't Feel My Face' but once again without big chances. By far the biggest favorite is 'Uptown Funk' by Mark Ronson Ft. Bruno Mars, and even 'Blank Space' by Taylor Swift has rather small chances. If you are also sure that 'Uptown Funk' will win Grammys you can bet here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-record-of-the-year/.

Meghan Trainor is a favorite for the always popular New Artist award but it could be one of the most interesting categories as James Bay and Sam Hunt also have good chances. And if you think that even Courtney Barnett or Tori Kelly could win it, you can place bets on them as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-new-artist/.
 

Most political analysts believe it is an almost certainty that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic party’s presidential candidate in 2016, so that leaves the question open for who her running mate will be. And it is even possible for Bill Clinton to be his wife’s running mate.

Still, in October she said that if she wins her party's nomination, then she would seriously consider making Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro her running mate. At 40 years old, Castro is relatively young, and he’s also Hispanic, so it not a surprise that he is at the moment favorite for the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-nominee/. But, it is far from decided so you have options like Tim Kaine, Martin O'Malley, Cory Booker, or any other open as well.

It is even more open when it comes to the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee as it is far from sure who will be a Presidential Nominee. Anyway, there is an opinion that the Republican presidential nominee will need a woman by his side to run against Hillary Clinton. Thus, Carly Fiorina has a minimal lead at the moment, while being followed by John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley.

There is still a lot of factors for these markets and that's making them even more interesting as odds are really good. What are your opinions on them and do you have any other suggestions for the US Presidential Election markets? Those already created you can find here: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/.

Four days ago, Golden Globes 2016 nominations list was revealed and thus here are the markets for the seven main categories: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/golden-globes/all/

One of the strange nominations was one that put The Martian in the category of Best Picture: Musical or Comedy. So, though The Martian has biggest chances to win it (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-musical-or-comedy/), it is really unusual to see this movie among comedies.

In the category of the Best Picture: Drama, by far the biggest favorite is 'Spotlight' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-drama/), while its director Thomas McCarthy is the second favorite for the Best Director award, behind Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, director of 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-director/).

The biggest favorite among the all categories is Leo DiCaprio for the Best Actor: Drama , for his role in 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-drama/), while Matt Damon should win the Best Actor: Musical or Comedy for 'The Martian', another strange award this movie could get (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/).

When it comes to the ladies, Brie Larson in 'Room' is the first option when it comes to the Best Actress: Drama (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-drama/), while Jennifer Lawrence in the first favorite for the Best Actress: Musical or Comedy, though Amy Schumer could win this award as well, for her role in 'Trainwreck' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-musical-or-comedy/).

Anyway, there is a lot of the other nominees so you can choose other bets as well, and you can also suggest if you want to see some other markets created when it comes to the Golden Globe Awards.

In June this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said a woman will be featured on a redesigned $10 bill in 2020 - the 100th anniversary of the Constitution's 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.

Since then there was a lot of speculation who deserves to be the first woman on U.S. paper currency since Martha Washington, who was on the $1 Silver Certificate between 1891 and 1896. And though this $10 bill will appear in 2020, the announcement should be made in the following weeks.

So, who is your favorite for the Woman that will be on a new $10 bill? Eleanor Roosevelt, Harriet Tubman, or someone else? Hurry up, as the announcement could be made any day now: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/which-woman-will-be-on-a-new-10-bill/.

In the last few days Donald Trump once again refused to close the door to a third-party presidential bid as he he is not being treated well by the GOP 'establishment'. "A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent," he tweeted two days ago, so as pledges and promises mean nothing to him, his supporters turn a blind eyev on that.

With this, Trump is tacitly saying that he will make Hillary win, if he doesn’t get what he wants. Because of this topic being popular once again, you now have an open market on Will Donald Trump be a third party presidential candidate in 2016 and odds on him deciding so are really good: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/donald-trump-to-be-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-in-2016/.

So, what do you think about this? Will Donald Trump break his pledge, leave the list of Republican presidential candidates and runs as an independent/third-party candidate at the 2016 Presidential Election?

And as we talk about publicity... There was rarely a headline for the Bitcoin community as interesting as WIRED's 'Bitcoin’s Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This Unknown Australian Genius'. So, do you think that Craig Steven Wright is really Satoshi Nakamoto, or was he a member of the team that created Bitcoin? Or all of it is an elaborate hoax?

Anyway, you surely have your opinion and you have also a chance to earn from it on the open market 'Is Craig Steven Wright Satoshi Nakamoto?' So, don't miss it: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/is-craig-steven-wright-satoshi-nakamoto/