Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay - page 13. (Read 25352 times)

With the late autumn and early winter comes the season of the movies in contention for the Oscars. We've already seen some of those that could get awards in February, some other are yet to hit cinemas but betting markets already have their opinions. Do you agree with them?

Like every year, the Best Picture could go to a lot of movies, but at the moment three dramas lead, though two of them will come to the cinemas at the end of the year,: 'Spotlight', 'Joy', and 'The Revenant'. Directors of these three movies are also in lead when it comes to the Best Director award, with David O. Russell, director of 'Joy', having the best chances for now.

It will be interesting to see if the Leonardo DiCaprio can finally win Oscar for the Best Actor. At the moment, markets see his lead role in 'The Revenant' as a second favorite, after Michael Fassbender for the role of Steve Jobs. When it comes to the Best Supporting Actor, we could have tight race between Michael Keaton in 'Spotlight' and 'Idris Elba in 'Beast of No Nation'.

As for the Best Supporting Actress, everyone is sure that it will be Rooney Mara for her role in 'Carol'. Still, nothing is sure when it comes to the Best Actress as Brie Larson has best chances for now as the leading actor in 'Room', though Cate Blanchett in 'Carol' and Jennifer Lawrence in 'Joy' could also have a nice February evening. Do you have any of your own favorites?

Yes, you are right about the masses. But when masses put their money on something, their decisions could be better. Anyway, I agree that interesting times are ahead.

And as we talk about the masses, there is once again question of the EU Referendum in the UK, as David Cameron will on Tuesday send a letter to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, setting out his demands for change in Britain's relations with the EU. With this he will warn his European partners that if they deny his demands he may recommend a vote to leave the EU.

Cameron promised the EU Referendum by the end of 2017, but it could be held in June 2016 (as other EU leaders want to have Referendum before the autumn, with another migration crisis likely next summer) and campaign to leave is well-financed, while he finally started to be clear enough in what he wants from other EU leaders.

Most betting markets and opinion polls show that Britons favor staying in the EU, but recently the gap with those wanting to leave has started to narrow. So date of the Referendum could decide a lot, but what are your other opinions on this? Would you favor UK leaving the EU?

I am holding some REP so I am excited about the project.  I don't know if I will invest on the other side until I see how accurate the predictions will be.  The question of "mob rules" seems a bit precarious to me....the masses have a history of being wrong....so....we will see.  Interesting times are ahead, to be sure!

No, I am just creating the markets, so I want you to participate with your own ideas about the potential markets. You say that you expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets, well I want to discuss about the markets that you find interesting and topics that you and other people would like to bet on.

Yes, Augur could be nice, 'Wisdom of the crowd' is the good idea, and it will be interesting to see how those things with reputation are going to work.

I don't get this thread.  Are you sponsoring a prediction market?  If, so, how do I participate?  In the months to come I expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets....For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

On 5 May 2016, the London mayoral election will be held and that will be the fifth election to the position of Mayor of London, which was created in 2000. The Mayor of London is the mayor of the entirety of Greater London, including the City of London, so these are surely one of the most popular mayoral elections in the world.

As incumbent Mayor Boris Johnson has chosen not to run for re-election for a third term in office, the main contenders are expected to be the Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith, and the Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan. Though candidates from several other parties are also in race, they are almost without any chances.

While media write that this race might ‘revive some pretty basic class instincts’, betting markets are slightly more in favor of Sadiq Khan, the son of a Pakistani-born bus driver. But Zac Goldsmith, son of the late billionaire financier Sir James Goldsmith, is still with the good chances to lead the capital that is now home to more than 8.6 million people.

Goldsmith is hoping that his environmental record will appeal to Green and Liberal Democrat voters, while Khan is a human rights lawyer who was the first person from an ethnic minority background to enter the shadow cabinet. So, what are you thoughts on the race for the Mayor of London, and are there more UK Politics markets you would like to see?

A month ago, Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy announced that the next General election will be held on December 20th. It is believed that a Christmas election will offer him a favorable economic wind and lower turnout due to the holidays, so it would help his People's Party to win the majority of seats.

Last polls do indicate a win for his People's Party, with nearly 28% of the vote, but still far short of an overall majority, with just 128 seats out of the 176 needed in the 350-seat Congress. They are followed by PSOE Socialist Workers (23%), growing Citizens Party (17%), and the Podemos Party (14%).

Markets are still favorable when it comes to People's Party winning most seats, but do you think that things could change even more in Spain for the next month and half? And what are the other following elections that you find interesting?

With “Spectre” being released in the USA tomorrow, after setting a new record at the UK box office since being released on 26th October, one of the most popular entertainment questions these days is 'Who is going to be the next James Bond?'.

In several recent interviews, Daniel Craig hinted that “Spectre” would be his last film as James Bond, so the actors like Damian Lewis, Tom Hardy, Idris Elba, Henry Cavill are already top contenders to drive Aston Martin in the 25th film. So, who is your favorite for the next James Bond?


And, more important question is, what are the other markets that you would like to see these days, as I'll continue to add one prediction market per day about the current events, while the suggestions from all of you are always more than welcomed.

These days, when the value of Bitcoin goes up (and down) in the couple of minutes, and when the Blockchain technology appears on the cover of 'The Economist', Bitcoin community is all but a boring one. From trying to predict the value of Bitcoin in the next minutes and hours, to trying to predict what will come out of the Blockchain technology in the coming months and years.

So, with all of this, every member of a Bitcoin community is in a way predictor and some of us surely want to predict more than what is so often unpredictable value of the Bitcoin, or some other markets that are offered.

Maybe being good in a technical things, you are able to predict Will the WhatsApp reach 1 billion users in 2015? Though it is rather 50/50 situation as it reached 800m in April and 900m at the start of September. But maybe you have some additional info, and other just don't have them. Or are lazy to find.

Or maybe you are better in politics so you are sure that Angela Merkel will be Germany’s chancellor after 2017 elections? Even though she still didn't confirm officially that she will run to be the chancellor for the fourth time, and also has refugee crisis to deal with before the next elections. But Angela is Angela so that could be a sure bet.

Anyway, those are some of the suggested bets, so what would you bet on them? But more importantly, what are the other bets that you want to see on betting markets in the future? To have some additional drives of the brain cells, when all this fuss about the price of the Bitcoin gets back into the normal. At least, in a way what Bitcoin community comprehends as normal.