I can't tell if this is serious, or just mocking all the uber-bulls on here.
I can see why you might think that
but on this occasion not mocking.
However neither should you think that I am saying this is definitely going to happen, just that it's one possibility that right now seems so outrageous, that were it to happen people would absolutely fail to handle it well - as per Ektra's comment...
quote author=Ektra link=topic=800330.msg9019254#msg9019254 date=1412013568]
Interesting speculation. I find this compelling as a success scenario because it is so wild, yet not implausible. Everyone is expecting future bubbles to be similar to past bubbles, which would in your scenario result in even die hard hodlers selling far too early, hoping to buy back on the 'predictable' dip after peaking around 5-10x the pre-bubble price. Your scenario sets up a much rougher ride with massive profits available, but set up in such a way that most will be banging their heads in hindsight.
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But what wilth1 says is just as likely, perhaps more so.
... But there is an alternate future where bitcoin survives (doesn't die), the network emaciates, and it never catches on institutionally or as a currency - but is still completely useful.
That's the kind of speculation I am interested in, the big picture. How the world might (or might not change) the actual price is not so interesting. I just picked a big number to illustrate the potential magnitude of what one possible outcome might result in. It's a top end estimate but well within the realm of possibility.
What is more telling is that if you consider wilth1's "niche market" scenario you need to think about what kind of market cap that works for. if you still use the s curve + fluctuation model and take the ATH of 1230 as your absolute ATH, then the price that btc ultimately settles at cannot really ever be much lower that what we are at now.
Any argument that it is going to crash to zero, or single digits or even double digits just doesn't make any sense when you consider the big picture. all the "crash" posts seem to reason that price will go down because price has been going down. They assume a zero demand scenario, which is way more outlandish than assuming btc will go mainstream. If you have nonzero demand then evey halving if price means your going to see twice the demand. This kind of exponential increase in buying pressure will ultimately halt any sell off of an asset with limited supply.
Sure we could go half off, maybe even half off again, but the lower we go the more resistance there is because for x dollar amount you have to sell more btc. Totally simple, totally obvious to probably everyone reading this, but it is the massive gorilla in the room whenever you read any Bitcoin to the gutter post.
Ah, but Bitcoin to the moon posts are the same but in reverse!
No. Ther is only ~14m bitcoin, selling supply dries up quickly, on upticks there is infinite dollars. Buying supply can theoretically never dry up.
Assuming the pie ends up a serious size. Which is basically all that your long term holders are assuming. It's all about peice of the pie.
