[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 23.

Odalv

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Quote from: inca on October 04, 2014, 02:30:51 PM

Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 01:40:16 PM

Quote from: inca on October 04, 2014, 01:30:10 PM

Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?

Because the miners get paid with block rewards in bitcoin. As the price of bitcoin rises so does the block reward.
And as long the mining gear produces more rewards than the power to run it costs, it will stay online. And at, say $500K per coin and 12.5BTC/block that would be like $900M rewards/day or ~$330B/year. A large amount of that would be going into paying the electricity bills.

You make an excellent point and in the long run perhaps the mining system may prove flawed.

But I must have missed where in the near term the cost of a bitcoin is anyway related its mining cost?

I'm sorry, but you are wrong.
If bitcoin price is 10x higher than mining costs then a lot of new miners will emerge ... simply because they can make some profit.

sgbett

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Quote from: xDan on October 04, 2014, 02:54:37 PM

Quote from: Chuckee on October 03, 2014, 12:35:16 PM

The www was invented in what, 1993? 1994? Within a couple years, I was online with an Internet portal, and I was just a snot nosed kid who watched Nickelodeon all day. If I knew about it and was using it within such a short span of time, then obviously it had a significant impact on society.

ohohohohohoho

this was my favourite, "because I was using the internet after a couple years, so was everyone" such worldview. so insight.

An amorous cow-herder

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Quote from: brg444 on October 04, 2014, 02:51:10 PM

Case in point : I don't have any numbers to back this up but the cost of mining a Bitcoin at the last ATH was certainly less than a 1/10th of the price.

I know for sure. I had a rig mining back then (and a couple of gfx cards for scrypt coins).
But that doesnt change anything. Mining capacity follows price. With Asics there is allways a delay, due to the long times between (pre-)ordering and shipping. The hashing power has kept rising at unsustainable rates since last ATH (actually next difficulty change might be first drop since around the time of the first reward reduction). Mining cards like the BFL monarchs which were ordered during the ATH still havent been shipped (and its very well possible they never will...).

brg444

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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 02:51:49 PM

Quote from: Ibian on October 04, 2014, 02:37:43 PM

The price of bitcoin merely has to be at least the cost of electriticy to produce it. There is nothing preventing it from being higher. Or much higher.

Nothing. Except rational behavior.
If mining is is highly profitable more people (or farms) will do it and expand capacities. I mean, seriously, who wouldnt want to buy a "money printing" machine?
Mining capacity (and power requirements) will allways follow price.

I don't think this is true.

The ability to set up miners and add hashing power to the network can easily lag behind the price in a bull market.

xDan

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ヽ( ㅇㅅㅇ)ﾉ ~!!

Quote from: jcoin200 on October 03, 2014, 12:15:15 PM

BTC doesn't solve a problem, just makes certain monetary transactions slightly easier (once you know what your doing). I really dont think the comparison between the early internet and btc right now are valid. BTC is not doing something new and different like the internet was doing.

ahahahahaha

Quote from: Chuckee on October 03, 2014, 12:35:16 PM

The www was invented in what, 1993? 1994? Within a couple years, I was online with an Internet portal, and I was just a snot nosed kid who watched Nickelodeon all day. If I knew about it and was using it within such a short span of time, then obviously it had a significant impact on society.

ohohohohohoho

Quote from: Chuckee on October 03, 2014, 12:35:16 PM

Bitcoin doesn't solve any problems for average people

huehuehuehuehue

Sweeping statements, mass generalisations, and lack of any kind of vision.
I'm afraid this is all the response you deserve.

An amorous cow-herder

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Quote from: Ibian on October 04, 2014, 02:37:43 PM

The price of bitcoin merely has to be at least the cost of electriticy to produce it. There is nothing preventing it from being higher. Or much higher.

Nothing. Except rational behavior.
If mining is is highly profitable more people (or farms) will do it and expand capacities. I mean, seriously, who wouldnt want to buy a "money printing" machine?
Mining capacity (and power requirements) will allways follow price.

brg444

hero member

Activity: 644

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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 01:40:16 PM

Quote from: inca on October 04, 2014, 01:30:10 PM

Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?

Because the miners get paid with block rewards in bitcoin. As the price of bitcoin rises so does the block reward.
And as long the mining gear produces more rewards than the power to run it costs, it will stay online. And at, say $500K per coin and 12.5BTC/block that would be like $900M rewards/day or ~$330B/year. A large amount of that would be going into paying the electricity bills.

Actually it could be that a only a very small fraction of that would be going into paying the electricity bill.

Case in point : I don't have any numbers to back this up but the cost of mining a Bitcoin at the last ATH was certainly less than a 1/10th of the price.

Ibian

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The price of bitcoin merely has to be at least the cost of electriticy to produce it. There is nothing preventing it from being higher. Or much higher.

inca

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Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 01:40:16 PM

Quote from: inca on October 04, 2014, 01:30:10 PM

Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?

Because the miners get paid with block rewards in bitcoin. As the price of bitcoin rises so does the block reward.
And as long the mining gear produces more rewards than the power to run it costs, it will stay online. And at, say $500K per coin and 12.5BTC/block that would be like $900M rewards/day or ~$330B/year. A large amount of that would be going into paying the electricity bills.

You make an excellent point and in the long run perhaps the mining system may prove flawed.

But I must have missed where in the near term the cost of a bitcoin is anyway related its mining cost?

sgbett

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Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 01:40:16 PM

Quote from: inca on October 04, 2014, 01:30:10 PM

Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?

Because the miners get paid with block rewards in bitcoin. As the price of bitcoin rises so does the block reward.
And as long the mining gear produces more rewards than the power to run it costs, it will stay online. And at, say $500K per coin and 12.5BTC/block that would be like $900M rewards/day or ~$330B/year. A large amount of that would be going into paying the electricity bills.

This is actually a really interesting point. I wonder then if the adoption curve is retarded by the block reward. I guess then any order of magnitude moves (such as i speculated) are some 10-20 years off.

Thats going to test some patience!

An amorous cow-herder

sr. member

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Quote from: inca on October 04, 2014, 01:30:10 PM

Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?

Because the miners get paid with block rewards in bitcoin. As the price of bitcoin rises so does the block reward.
And as long the mining gear produces more rewards than the power to run it costs, it will stay online. And at, say $500K per coin and 12.5BTC/block that would be like $900M rewards/day or ~$330B/year. A large amount of that would be going into paying the electricity bills.

farfiman

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inca

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Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 01:10:24 PM

Quote from: sgbett on October 04, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

Why goat my dear fellow, it's wild speculation, implication is in the eye of the beholder.

Well, the chart does imply a couple of things, amoth others the following.
The mining network will consume more power than a medium sized country.
The technology will still not be widely used, even at those price levels, otherwise it would have stabilzed with a high volume.
So, thats what you believe?

Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?

An amorous cow-herder

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Quote from: sgbett on October 04, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

Why goat my dear fellow, it's wild speculation, implication is in the eye of the beholder.

Well, the chart does imply a couple of things, amoth others the following.
The mining network will consume more power than a medium sized country.
The technology will still not be widely used, even at those price levels, otherwise it would have stabilzed with a high volume.
So, thats what you believe?

sgbett

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Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 09:36:34 AM

Quote from: sgbett on October 04, 2014, 09:02:21 AM

Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process.

Well, i would guess there are only so many interpretations for a topic called "[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now".
I mean, what is the topic supposed to imply?

Why goat my dear fellow, it's wild speculation, implication is in the eye of the beholder. (Not to mention its just the click bait to get people to read the post! You know how it works)

It does represent my belief, that buying and or holding is a good plan (it's what I'm actually doing) but as to whether that is appropriate that's up to the individual reading it.

Now if someone's goal is to make short term profit then this is not the post for them. That's not my goal and I do consistently reiterate that. My goal is to invest a reasonable amount of cash (that I can well afford to lose) in a risky asset class that I happen to think is a game changer. When it looks "cheap" to me I pick up a bit more.

Now, that's a totally digferent agenda to that the chorus of sellers is pushing, but I think it's agood agenda. It's also transparent and honest. I will weather the diatribe all the way to $30 if I have to.

fewcoins

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Keep launching personal attacks... I don't feel bad about it. Makes me laugh how you rather complain about me & won't acknowledge the price dropping so fast

An amorous cow-herder

sr. member

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Quote from: sgbett on October 04, 2014, 09:02:21 AM

Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process.

Well, i would guess there are only so many interpretations for a topic called "[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now".
I mean, what is the topic supposed to imply?

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

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Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process. I also probably exposes your real agenda. That's also just a guess.

sgbett

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Quote from: fewcoins on October 03, 2014, 09:57:55 PM

Quote from: sgbett on October 03, 2014, 03:56:19 AM

Quote from: fewcoins on October 03, 2014, 02:48:25 AM

Quote from: sgbett on October 02, 2014, 02:50:20 AM

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is Huh

The lowest point recently was 365.2 being the most recent bottom

short term (hourly) sellers are running out of steam

long term (3-day) nowhere near the previous low of 339.8

It could still go either way, but the bear case is hardly conclusive right now. Your horizon is so short though, that you seem to forget we have already been this low, this is not new ground. This is trading in a range still.

If we go below 340, then you might have a point. First you have to get below 365.2 though. Until then trading in a range means sometimes we go up (like how we went from 340 to 660 may/june time) and it goes down.

Done deal, We just broke 350... Trust me 340 will be broken before the weekends even done. Do you notice how many times you changed your price target??? You're promoting people to lose a lot of money. We need to keep selling until the mega miners close down! Stop denying it!!!

Yes, here we are 3am in the morning and I can't get no sleep Cheesy

This is the test, and it will probably set the tone for the next few months.

What's funny is that the only reason I want it to go up is so I don't have to read any more of these vainglorious posts claiming that you actually know what's happening.

You are guessing, same as me, except at least I know it.

so I will watch as we test 340 and if we break below, you can continue to be obnoxiously arrogant about how right you are and nobody will be the better off for it. Whatever floats your boat.

I've got *decades* of patience though, and I have no fear.

inca

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Quote from: fewcoins on October 03, 2014, 10:41:12 PM

I think what you said is a fair summary of the content of all your posts.

Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 23. (Read 71521 times)