Very interesting read, and I think you may be right.
Of course wall street and the banks will try to push out all the weak hands, and they will be pretty good at it too.
Trying to stay strong is important, though I'm sure I'll sell part of my bitcoin when the price really takes off, I mean who doesn't.
But as long as I can buy a large house with just a fraction of my bitcoin, I won't care that much.
Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 30. (Read 71521 times)
September 28, 2014, 04:02:07 PM
September 28, 2014, 03:20:25 PM
Quote
Bitcoin will go to a hundred thousand trillion dollars a week from now. It'll conquer the universe and bring peace and prosperity to all galaxies.
Why?
Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.
Why?
Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.
That's OP's argument, in a nutshell. He's thought out this completely delusional "what if ..."-scenario, and then goes on to treat this scenario as the way things must play out.
Meanwhile, in the real world, Bitcoin is crashing. Again. Because no one wants to buy this shitty asset.
Yes I guess me repeatedly stressing the point that I still think bitcoin might fail entirely summarises to that
Whereas your articulate point that "no one wants to buy this shitty asset" adequately surmises the gamut of human opinion on the subject and neatly sidesteps a universe of infinite quantum possibilities by assuming that you alone in this existence, are omniscient.
+1 for eloquency and brain capacity
September 28, 2014, 03:11:18 PM
Quote
Bitcoin will go to a hundred thousand trillion dollars a week from now. It'll conquer the universe and bring peace and prosperity to all galaxies.
Why?
Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.
Why?
Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.
That's OP's argument, in a nutshell. He's thought out this completely delusional "what if ..."-scenario, and then goes on to treat this scenario as the way things must play out.
Meanwhile, in the real world, Bitcoin is crashing. Again. Because no one wants to buy this shitty asset.
Yes I guess me repeatedly stressing the point that I still think bitcoin might fail entirely summarises to that
Whereas your articulate point that "no one wants to buy this shitty asset" adequately surmises the gamut of human opinion on the subject and neatly sidesteps a universe of infinite quantum possibilities by assuming that you alone in this existence, are omniscient.
September 28, 2014, 02:35:48 PM
This is log version of that chart...
Doesn't seem too far off so far
Around $8k is where I kinda predicted to be the tipping point too
This is the shit that will prevent me from selling on the top of the bubble and quadrupling my money though
September 28, 2014, 02:33:57 PM
Quote
Bitcoin will go to a hundred thousand trillion dollars a week from now. It'll conquer the universe and bring peace and prosperity to all galaxies.
Why?
Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.
Why?
Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.
That's OP's argument, in a nutshell. He's thought out this completely delusional "what if ..."-scenario, and then goes on to treat this scenario as the way things must play out.
Meanwhile, in the real world, Bitcoin is crashing. Again. Because no one wants to buy this shitty asset.
September 28, 2014, 02:30:49 PM
I thought about that
Your argument from the initial posting is very good. But you should adjust the numbers. If Bitcoin climbs to 1 Mio USD then it will take over the world economy with a M1 value of 21 * 10^12 USD. It is doubtful that this will happen. But who knows ...
Yes that would be insane, but that would be market cap not all the bitcoin were bought at that value. Indeed that would likely be what fuelled the post adoption selloff, the final valuation being 300k per coin making market cap of $6.3T not outlandish by any stretch (again given that all coins werent bought at that market price, the actual no of dollars it would take to get to that market cap wold be far less)
Your argument from the initial posting is very good. But you should adjust the numbers. If Bitcoin climbs to 1 Mio USD then it will take over the world economy with a M1 value of 21 * 10^12 USD. It is doubtful that this will happen. But who knows ...
Yes that would be insane, but that would be market cap not all the bitcoin were bought at that value. Indeed that would likely be what fuelled the post adoption selloff, the final valuation being 300k per coin making market cap of $6.3T not outlandish by any stretch (again given that all coins werent bought at that market price, the actual no of dollars it would take to get to that market cap wold be far less)
September 28, 2014, 02:26:54 PM
This is log version of that chart...
Your argument from the initial posting is very good. But you should adjust the numbers. If Bitcoin climbs to 1 Mio USD then it will take over the world economy with a M1 value of 21 * 10^12 USD. It is doubtful that this will happen. But who knows ...
September 28, 2014, 02:21:11 PM
This is log version of that chart...
Wow, that 10k to 100k
September 28, 2014, 02:18:25 PM
This is log version of that chart...
September 28, 2014, 12:02:10 PM
Could someone please add dates to the x-axis? I don't see the units, is it function(days from today)? Where function=sin?
The values aren't really supposed to be accurate, both time and price axis are kind of arbitrary (as per assumptions in the first post of 10years and 300k) it's more about the scale of movement that has to happen to reach an arbitrary end price based on this kind of model. In the chart I posted as an example though the x axis is days. So ther is about 3650 in 10 years give or take
The actual outcomes could be very different depending on whether a cycle lines up with the max rate of adoption in the s-curve. What I posted was just a shot in the dark based on one set of inputs. A surprising one admittedly but it shows the kind of crazy range of possibilities.
None of this means I don't still think it *could* go to zero(ish) because if you stop forgetting that then you start behaving irrationally. It just means that I hadn't considered all the possibilities. That I ahd kind of dismissed the crazy talk of btc at 1million dollars, as being a bit loony. I think I was mistaken to close off my mind to that possibility, because if it were to ever happen I would be unprepared.
I had a look on log scale it's a bit jiggly, but I'll post it up in a bit
September 28, 2014, 11:59:27 AM
prediction: sgbett is f***ing retarded
Take heed people, this is the counter argument.
September 28, 2014, 11:52:23 AM
prediction: sgbett is f***ing retarded
Take heed people, this is the counter argument.
September 28, 2014, 11:46:09 AM
September 28, 2014, 09:06:48 AM
If we just believe, we can make this happen. It's all the negative non believers who are crashing the party. If we pulled our Asks and placed them all at over $10k, we could have $10k tomorrow. People would be so desperate to buy bitcoins that they would be begging us to buy them at $10k. Then we shift Asks to $100k. If we only just believe.
Sure, if only bitcoiners were a Borg like hive mind they could agree to never sell until the price inflated into a bazillion dollars.
But that's not how reality works, were all human, greedy and uncertain of Bitcoin's future value.
September 28, 2014, 08:41:02 AM
If we just believe, we can make this happen. It's all the negative non believers who are crashing the party. If we pulled our Asks and placed them all at over $10k, we could have $10k tomorrow. People would be so desperate to buy bitcoins that they would be begging us to buy them at $10k. Then we shift Asks to $100k. If we only just believe.
September 28, 2014, 07:48:44 AM
it only takes ONE major entity; bank, company, government, person to buy in and others will follow, not wanting to be left outside.
This is wishful thinking. Tim Draper already jumped in with >30000 coins purchase. Nobody followed him, sorry.
Second market stagnated as well.
I hadn't even heard about that. Shows that the media isn't picking up on what should be picked up on.
September 28, 2014, 07:33:44 AM
I don't want to be rude but this sounds pretty damn delusional.
But hey, we can all dream can't we?
But hey, we can all dream can't we?
September 28, 2014, 07:27:44 AM
I like your prediction 
September 28, 2014, 07:24:35 AM
When the price turns back upwards and the pent up demand from sellers and newbies and institutions alike drives the next mania, posters like exocytosis and xiaoxiao will have missed out again.
No, I actually do hold some BTC currently, just in case my predictions are wrong. However, that doesn't mean I have to yell "to the moon" to try luring in newbies. I prefer voicing my honest opinion, and would be glad if the Bitcoin market decided to prove me wrong. If Bitcoin can't sustain its price just because of my bearishness in here, then Bitcoin doesn't deserve to exist anyway -- and I'll gladly take my tiny loss.
I hope Bitcoin will go to the moon, but I don't think it will. I'm 95 % sure it won't. That's why 95 % of my net worth is not in Bitcoin.
Oh, and I do like Bitcoin itself. It's the cultists, scammers and crooks I don't like.
September 28, 2014, 07:09:15 AM
The problem with waves is the people and the money entering in Bitcoin in waves imply there will moments the flow turn back or lower.
People, like at a party, will hang around even when the party is ending. Until someone decide to exit first and then this will signal to the others it is thime to exit.
They already want go home, but not want to be the first to go home
The same with Bitcoin: there are a lot awaiting on the wings, in the shadows.
The turning point in my opinion is when the Bitcoin inflation will turn permanently lower than the inflation in USD and/or other major currencies.
This will move the natural equilibrium point in Bitcoin favor in the same way the lower inflation move the equilibrium point in favor of the Swiss Franc compared with the USD and in favor of the USD compared to the Argentinian Peseta.
Then, some medium big fish will decide to enter and all of them will start entering together.
People, like at a party, will hang around even when the party is ending. Until someone decide to exit first and then this will signal to the others it is thime to exit.
They already want go home, but not want to be the first to go home
The same with Bitcoin: there are a lot awaiting on the wings, in the shadows.
The turning point in my opinion is when the Bitcoin inflation will turn permanently lower than the inflation in USD and/or other major currencies.
This will move the natural equilibrium point in Bitcoin favor in the same way the lower inflation move the equilibrium point in favor of the Swiss Franc compared with the USD and in favor of the USD compared to the Argentinian Peseta.
Then, some medium big fish will decide to enter and all of them will start entering together.
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