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Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 25. (Read 71514 times)

hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.

I've been wrong in the past, and I've lost moneys on ill advised investments. But from loss comes growth, so I've certainly paid my dues.

It's completely your right to post your predictions here, since this is the speculation forum, afterall. Good luck to you, and I hope you're right. I just don't think it's going to happen though, and that's because of the bitcoin fundamentals. I think people here are all too eager to extrapolate past performance into future performance, but the fundamentals tell a different story.

Of course, that doesn't bode well for the holders, so of course they don't want to hear it.

And what fundamentals would that be? Because everyone I know of keep growing exponentially. Hash rate, unique number of wallets created, network transactions, merchant adoption, ATMs.

The only thing people like you have going for you is the price.

It literally is the ONLY thing you trolls can hang on to. When this bear market ends, you are all going to be nowhere to be seen
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.

I've been wrong in the past, and I've lost moneys on ill advised investments. But from loss comes growth, so I've certainly paid my dues.

It's completely your right to post your predictions here, since this is the speculation forum, afterall. Good luck to you, and I hope you're right. I just don't think it's going to happen though, and that's because of the bitcoin fundamentals. I think people here are all too eager to extrapolate past performance into future performance, but the fundamentals tell a different story.

Of course, that doesn't bode well for the holders, so of course they don't want to hear it.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Chuckee might have somewhat more credibility if he didn't resort to the Ad Hom attack as a default.  I just don't engage in those discussions because that resort is proof of a lost argument.  As such I suspect the agenda of WHY someone would even waste his/her life on a message board trying to make such negative arguments.  Sorry Chuckee, but my bullshit-o-meter is pegged when I see these tactics in argument.

Sgbett on the other hand, has reflective thoughts that are not only proving research he has done, but cautions that even he can be wrong.  That makes me think he is credible.  

He cautions that he can be wrong, because he will be wrong, and then several months from now he'll continue on posting bullshit charts about bitcoin reaching a bazillion dollars by 2016, because if anyone calls him out on it, he can say, "Hey, I warned you that it could be wrong!"

Of course though, nobody will call him out on it because this forum is frequented by simpletons with short term memories who do no independent research and are inclined to believe any post that has fancy graphs and talk of easy money.

Quote
I just don't engage in those discussions because that resort is proof of a lost argument

How have I lost any argument? I've been right about the price ever since I began warning you all about the continuing downtrend. sgbett and the other bulls here have been wrong consistently since the beginning of this year.

When I smell bullshit, I call it out. Sorry if that offends your sensibilities, but somebody needs to state the obvious.
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
A+ post which is over the head of 99% of the posters on this board. Every time the variance is roughly of the same magnitude though (depending on how you count exactly).

--> 10^0 = $1     
--> 10^1 = $10 (*3)
--> 10^2 = $100 (*3)
--> 10^3 = $1000

So I'm expecting the next one to go to 10^4. Remember that the 10^2 and 10^3 growth spurts were only only 6 months apart though. The jump to 10^5 (order of magnitude $100,000) will seem massive if it's also in such a short time (but variance wise it will be the same).

Of course price can go to near or above 10,000 USD. But the question is when. Many cannot wait 5 years for that to happen.
full member
Activity: 413
Merit: 100
https://eloncity.io/
You guys are dumb if you actually believe the OP.

It's all classic con man smoke and mirrors... he knows that there are many impressionable people on these forums who are new to trading and think there's some kind of magic formula for reading the markets. That's why he throws around all the mathematical terminology, hoping to wow you into buying his bitcoin bag.

I'm going to warn you all one last time... It's clear now that bitcoin rallied last fall because it was the culmination of years of speculation, leading to the first major news of merchant adoption. Ever since 2009, bitcoin enthusiasts dreamed of that day, and it just so happened to coincide with attention from china and the US congressional hearings.

Merchant adoption happened, and what followed was a non-existent demand from the mainstream. There needs to be actual utility for the price to rise again. There could be short-term, false recoveries in the coming months, but they will fail to make it far because the fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin is still difficult to hold and secure, it costs money to convert from fiat and back, and aside from online gambling, there is no incentive to buy them.

I throw around charts to show the future is uncertain. You fail to read and comprehend what I am saying, either because you are stupid or because you have an agenda, and attempt to rephrase what I am saying as encouragement to buy.

Then you go on to encourage people to sell.

It is you who is trying to affect impressionable people Chuckee. Lying through omission, stating opinion as fact. Its classic trolling, man.

Chuckee might have somewhat more credibility if he didn't resort to the Ad Hom attack as a default.  I just don't engage in those discussions because that resort is proof of a lost argument.  As such I suspect the agenda of WHY someone would even waste his/her life on a message board trying to make such negative arguments.  Sorry Chuckee, but my bullshit-o-meter is pegged when I see these tactics in argument.

Sgbett on the other hand, has reflective thoughts that are not only proving research he has done, but cautions that even he can be wrong.  That makes me think he is credible. 
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
You guys are dumb if you actually believe the OP.

It's all classic con man smoke and mirrors... he knows that there are many impressionable people on these forums who are new to trading and think there's some kind of magic formula for reading the markets. That's why he throws around all the mathematical terminology, hoping to wow you into buying his bitcoin bag.

I'm going to warn you all one last time... It's clear now that bitcoin rallied last fall because it was the culmination of years of speculation, leading to the first major news of merchant adoption. Ever since 2009, bitcoin enthusiasts dreamed of that day, and it just so happened to coincide with attention from china and the US congressional hearings.

Merchant adoption happened, and what followed was a non-existent demand from the mainstream. There needs to be actual utility for the price to rise again. There could be short-term, false recoveries in the coming months, but they will fail to make it far because the fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin is still difficult to hold and secure, it costs money to convert from fiat and back, and aside from online gambling, there is no incentive to buy them.

I throw around charts to show the future is uncertain. You fail to read and comprehend what I am saying, either because you are stupid or because you have an agenda, and attempt to rephrase what I am saying as encouragement to buy.

Then you go on to encourage people to sell.

It is you who is trying to affect impressionable people Chuckee. Lying through omission, stating opinion as fact. Its classic trolling, man.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is  Huh




The lowest point recently was 365.2 being the most recent bottom

short term (hourly) sellers are running out of steam

long term (3-day) nowhere near the previous low of 339.8

It could still go either way, but the bear case is hardly conclusive right now. Your horizon is so short though, that you seem to forget we have already been this low, this is not new ground. This is trading in a range still.

If we go below 340, then you might have a point. First you have to get below 365.2 though. Until then trading in a range means sometimes we go up (like how we went from 340 to 660 may/june time) and it goes down.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
You guys are dumb if you actually believe the OP.

It's all classic con man smoke and mirrors... he knows that there are many impressionable people on these forums who are new to trading and think there's some kind of magic formula for reading the markets. That's why he throws around all the mathematical terminology, hoping to wow you into buying his bitcoin bag.

I'm going to warn you all one last time... It's clear now that bitcoin rallied last fall because it was the culmination of years of speculation, leading to the first major news of merchant adoption. Ever since 2009, bitcoin enthusiasts dreamed of that day, and it just so happened to coincide with attention from china and the US congressional hearings.

Merchant adoption happened, and what followed was a non-existent demand from the mainstream. There needs to be actual utility for the price to rise again. There could be short-term, false recoveries in the coming months, but they will fail to make it far because the fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin is still difficult to hold and secure, it costs money to convert from fiat and back, and aside from online gambling, there is no incentive to buy them.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
World Class Cryptonaire
sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

Roughly, days.

I explained more fully here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9005672

Whoops! I apologize for somehow missing your response. So if we call the peak around November, 2013 (910 days on the log chart) then add 11 months (330 days) that would put us at 1240 which is essentially the low for the current cycle prior to another growth spurt? At least on that one set of inputs you had that is. Or is the x-axis so abstract that it is simply to illustrate the cyclical nature of potential up's/down's of price over a hypothetical time period?

Thanks for the post man Cheesy
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is  Huh
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.




Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

You misunderstood the purpose of this graph.

It's not a prediction to what the price does exactly and when exactly that happens. It's just an illustration that shows how bitcoin behaves in general.

So you can know what to expect, but not when and how high exactly.

Can we expect crash & burn?? Because your chart doesn't show that!
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.




Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

You misunderstood the purpose of this graph.

It's not a prediction to what the price does exactly and when exactly that happens. It's just an illustration that shows how bitcoin behaves in general.

So you can know what to expect, but not when and how high exactly.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 502
Lets just wish away in this thread! Maybe it will hit a million dollars next month!!! & we might even see a unicorn or something!
I've seen a unicorn around these parts.

I heard that Bigfoot is buying BTC.

And the illuminati of china have agreed upon to eat the massive sell walls
sr. member
Activity: 369
Merit: 250
Lets just wish away in this thread! Maybe it will hit a million dollars next month!!! & we might even see a unicorn or something!
I've seen a unicorn around these parts.

I heard that Bigfoot is buying BTC.
hero member
Activity: 688
Merit: 500
ヽ( ㅇㅅㅇ)ノ ~!!
Lets just wish away in this thread! Maybe it will hit a million dollars next month!!! & we might even see a unicorn or something!
I've seen a unicorn around these parts.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Lets just wish away in this thread! Maybe it will hit a million dollars next month!!! & we might even see a unicorn or something!
full member
Activity: 413
Merit: 100
https://eloncity.io/
Definitely possible if the dollar collapses.

I am hoping (not for a dollar collapse) and hodling, but my concern is that in 14 months 1 Bitcoin, or $560,000 only buys a gallon of milk.  Certainly ,I will promptly pay off my mortgage.   Whether either has any value is my question.
legendary
Activity: 2660
Merit: 1074
you mean 560, right?

I would love love to see 560k in 14 months, but I know that not gonna happen.

We don't even have the willy robot to push us to 10k Sad
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