Topic: Reddit’s science forum banned climate deniers. - page 153. (Read 636458 times)

Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... but we're only 38% sure we were right


Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’
But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error
Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all






The Nasa climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true.

In a press release on Friday, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’.

The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all.

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this, he did not respond. Another analysis, from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project, drawn from ten times as many measuring stations as GISS, concluded that if 2014 was a record year, it was by an even tinier amount.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html



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Well. At least they are 140.2% sure it is 38% exact...

Yep.

There is an extraordinary thing happening at this time in climate science.

A few years ago it became somewhat obvious that the Earth was not "warming", as reported by the satellite datasets.  However, this had not reached any level of scientific certainty. 

Now it has. 

And what happens?  The larger body of politically oriented climate science, or perhaps their reporters to the general public, adhere steadfast to a chorus that "It's the hottest year ever" and "The Earth is on fire."

Denier is now scientist, and scientist is now denier.

Scientists: Human activity has pushed Earth beyond four of nine ‘planetary boundaries’







At the rate things are going, the Earth in the coming decades could cease to be a “safe operating space” for human beings. That is the conclusion of a new paper published Thursday in the journal Science by 18 researchers trying to gauge the breaking points in the natural world.

The paper contends that we have already crossed four “planetary boundaries.” They include the extinction rate; deforestation; the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; and the flow of nitrogen and phosphorous (used on land as fertilizer) into the ocean.

“What the science has shown is that human activities – economic growth, technology, consumption – are destabilizing the global environment,” said Will Steffen, who holds joint appointments at the Australian National University and the Stockholm Resilience Center, and is the lead author of the paper.

These are not future problems, but rather urgent matters, according to Steffen, who said that the economic boom since 1950 and the globalized economy have accelerated the transgression of the boundaries. No one knows exactly when push will come to shove, but he said the possible destabilization of the “Earth System” as a whole could occur in a time frame of “decades out to a century.”

The researchers focused on nine separate planetary boundaries first identified by scientists in a 2009 paper. These boundaries set theoretical limits on changes to the environment, and include ozone depletion, freshwater use, ocean acidification, atmospheric aerosol pollution and the introduction of exotic chemicals and modified organisms.



http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/scientists-human-activity-has-pushed-earth-beyond-four-of-nine-%E2%80%98planetary-boundaries%E2%80%99/ar-AA8ddtt

TL;DR. You do not believe in AGW. Welcome to my little thread 

This guy is a sneaky soldier for the devils forces...he defends evolution and global warming in an obscure manner with a pseudo science twist. The religion of Evolution of life is a lie, in case you are not aware Noahs ark has been discovered by Ron Wyatt and God is very real. He is in control of the planet and to worry about climate change only makes you pagans looks foolish.To cling to this 19th century theory illustrates the bondage you are in to sin and the demonic spirits that work in sinners Ephesians 2.2, GOD has every animal and insect under his eyes and there is no crisis besides sin!!

You guys really preach this evolution stuff still? You know Darwin was not even a scientist right , just an apostate preacher. Evolution can not exist because of many reasons but one being the supposed geological column this religion depends on does not exist anywhere on the earth it only exists in the masonic textbooks that battle for the souls of millions of lost victims. Without the geologic column evolution is nothing more than a luciferan religion to lead the human race into sin with their conscience deactivated...so comes the end of the world

‘Fears of man-made global warming exaggerated’


MUMBAI: Two of three scientists at a session on climate change and society at the Indian Science Congress on Tuesday felt fears of man-made global warming were greatly exaggerated. Their presence at the conference was particularly significant in light of the current 'development-versus-environment' debates.

"While I agree that glaciers are melting because of global warming, if this is because of man, then what was the reason for the melting of the glaciers in the Gondwana period long before man arrived on the planet?" asked Dhruv Sen Singh, Centre of Advanced Study in Geology, University of Lucknow.

"Climate change is a natural phenomenon while pollution is caused by man. We are definitely accelerating the process of climate change, but we cannot predict the rate or extent of climate change that can be attributed to man," Singh said.

According to him, fears of climate change amount to propaganda and "unnecessarily cause panic".

"The Cretaceous period 65 million years ago was the hottest in the history of the earth. Man was not around at the time," he added.

Singh said that if climate change was the cause of glaciers retreating, they should all be retreating at the same rate. "But in reality they are retreating at different rates, and some were advancing," said Singh. "Despite the melting of glaciers, only at some places the sea level is rising, whereas at others it is constant, possibly due to the sinking of land," he added.




As for extreme climatic events such as the Uttarakhand cloudburst, he said such cloudbursts were not new to the Himalayas. "These are cyclical events but not catastrophes. The devastation in Uttarakhand was caused by people living in hazard-prone areas, a function of India's high population density," he added.

Rajesh Agnihotri senior scientist at the Radio and Atmospheric Science Division, National Physics Laboratory, who mapped changing trends in India's monsoons, said there was nothing to suggest that this was because of man-made climate change.

Hypothetically, even if man stopped industrial activity, stopped using cars and stopped using air-conditioners, monsoon patterns would still change," said Agnihotri.

"Natural forces like solar intensity appear to be dominating monsoons to a greater extent than man-made climate change," he added.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/environment/global-warming/fears-of-man-made-global-warming-exaggerated/articleshow/45786412.cms

I do like that clam.

On 'proxies' to try to deduce how the environment was in the past, one study I read about last night uses analysis of the shells of giant clams.

A hot topic in these 'reconstructions' is the relatively recent 'medieval warming period'.  It was accepted as reality until the late 90's.  There is a suggestion of malfeasance in some of the reconstruction work to get rid of the warming at that time.  This would allow people to say "Now is the hottest ever due to greedy humans...so you should give us a lot of carbon taxes and do whatever else we want to do in order to 'save the planet.'"

The 'party line' currently is that "Well, ya, it was kinda warm back then in the middle ages maybe, but it was a regional thing and the world on average was a lot colder."  The clam shell study does not align with that suggestion.

Anyway, the study is outlined on the most visited 'denialist' web site here:

  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/05/hottest-year-ever-giant-clam-reveals-middle-ages-were-warmer-than-today/

In the comments someone observed that thus study must not have been funded by 'Big Oil', but rather by 'Big Chowder'.  I don't know why but I get the biggest kick out of that.

Japan and the U.S. launched one back around 2009-ish I believe.  Maybe a bit later.  The U.S. one crashed imediately, but the Japanese one's been working.  The one you reference is the second attempt (oco-2) and it was successful.

The funny thing is that the intial data from both seem to indicate that the sparcely populated tropical countries seem to owe us industrialized Western countries a lot of money in 'carbon taxes'.  Not exactly what your average chicken-little climate warmonger was hoping for it seems:

  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/20/agu14-nasas-orbiting-carbon-observatory-shows-surprising-co2-emissions-in-southern-hemisphere/

Japan's satellite showed the same thing.  Of course there are seasonal factors involved here so the initial findings, as amusing as they may be, don't really mean that much.  I've not much reason to doubt that our burning of fossil fuels has a sizeable impact on CO2 inputs and 5%, (if that is what it is...I don't remember the various computations with precision) is sizable in my conception of things.

I kinda wonder if Japan realized that they were likely to get royally fucked by international carbon trading scammery and thought it worth the investment to launch their own gear to get a second opinion.  Being given to 'conspiracy hypotheses', I also can't help but wonder if the failure of oco-1 didn't have something to do with some people realizing that they might not like what they were about to find.

I didn't know that NASA launched a new satellite last year:
Orbiting Carbon Observatory

This is the important part, and it is starkly obvious to anyone, even those without scientific training in the field.

Ignoring night/day winter/summer variations, the assertion is made that the background trend is rising.  It is then said that the cause is due "mostly" to the accumulation of co2 in the atmosphere which in turn is due to man's activities.

It is alleged that from a given CO2 percentage in the atmosphere, that background trend can be predicted by these computer models.

Either the Climate Modelers are right, and there is an ice age coming on right now, but the fierce and strong effects of our CO2 are preventing it, or otherwise, they are simply wrong, and the CO2 has only a nominal effect.

2014: Another Year Without Global Warming

There are now 219 months with no significant upward temperature trend, according to an analysis of satellite data, which is more than half the 432-month satellite temperature record.

Climate scientists sounded the alarm last year that 2014 was on track to be the hottest year on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency, in fact, declared 2014 year the hottest on record, but only by only 0.05 degrees Celsius.

“The Great Pause is a growing embarrassment to those who had told us with ‘substantial confidence’ that the science was settled and the debate over,” writes Christopher Monckton, the 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley and a climate skeptic. ”Nature had other ideas.”

“Though approaching 70 mutually incompatible and more or less implausible excuses for the Pause are appearing in nervous reviewed journals and among proselytizing scientists,” writes Monckton, who has been studying and writing on global warming for years, “the possibility that the Pause is occurring because the computer models are simply wrong about the sensitivity of temperature to manmade greenhouse gases can no longer be dismissed, and is demonstrated in a major peer-reviewed paper published this month in the Orient’s leading science journal.”......

http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/05/2014-another-year-without-global-warming/

Good summary.  By the way, there are levels of CO2 that are bad for humans, creating headaches and so forth.  IIRC it was levels of 7000 ppm+.  This is a concern for submarines, various closed spaces, etc.

Nice pic.  CO2 is basically a trace gas in our atmosphere here on earth.  For indoctrination of kids and mouth-breathers, it's now being referred to in the media and training material as 'toxic' or 'harmful' or 'pollutant' or whatever, but that a different (and sadly amusing) thing.

One thing I saw in presentation by Freeman Dyson (another 'denier') was that an area of growing corn will suck up nearly all the available CO2 in a period of hours.  It actually kind of makes sense that plants would be especially good at doing this since CO2 concentrations are fairly low and they need to compete with one another for it in order to grow.  One 'proxy' to try to determine ancient CO2 concentrations is to look at the size of the 'stoma' of fossilized plants which are the pores through which they capture (and release) atmospheric gasses.

Now I will say that it is, in scientific terms, a fairly big deal to see a rise from 350 ppmv to 400 ppmv in a short period of time.  It's apparently happened, and it would be foolish and negligent to ignore it.

It would be (and is) even more foolish to invent a bunch of scare stories and engage in what is at least very close to scientific fraud to achieve various political objectives.  The reason is that it is a big turn-off to people like me.  There is a suggestion that 400 ppmv is somehow 'unprecedented'.  Because of the politicization involved in climate science and the very questionable funding, I have a lot of trouble accepting this assertion at face value.

GEERTJE WILDERS!!!

fresh air, growing trees and a little tan. sounds awful

I have my grill ready.

I agree!

Climate change is coming!

The climate change of NIGHT is close!

And the climate change of SUMMER is coming!

And the climate change of AN ICE AGE is coming!

Before



After