It appears we are reaching a pussygate climax with Trump likely being arrested sometime in the next week or so for hiding a payment to a porn star he had an affair from the FEC a couple months before the 2016 election.
In order for the NY AG to indict Trump on a felony charge, he is going to have to employ a novel legal theory that may very well end up not working.
edit: Then again, he would be tried in NYC, and the jury may simply decide "Orange man bad" and may be willing to convict him, even without a prosecution.
Not a lawyer, but the way I understand it, and I might be wrong:
A jury would really just decide whether or not the prosecution was able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump did each of the things he is alleged of doing in the charging document. The judge presiding over the trial decides in pre trial (and if convicted then likely in appellate courts) that the alleged actions would constitute a violation of which codes.
In this case, we expect the prosecutor to allege that Trump falsified business records to cover up campaign finance violations.
Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor crime on it's own. If it's done in attempt to get away with another crime, it's a felony.
So the jury would simply decide whether or not Trump falsified records of the payment made to his personal lawyer (who has already gone to prison for making this payment, among other things) and then whether or not he was motivated to falsify the records by the fact that he was a candidate in the upcoming election.
It's also possible Trump faces other charges, maybe related to campaign finance law or maybe something else. We really don't know until it happens. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some related evidence that the public has no idea about.
Overall though, this case really is small stakes compared to what's looming ahead in the three other criminal investigations that all seem likely to wrap up in the next few months.
The state of Georgia will likely indict Trump next and those charges could include:
- § 21-2-603. Conspiracy to Commit Election Fraud
- § 21-2-604. Criminal Solicitation to Commit Election Fraud
or they might just go with Racketeering (conspiracy to commit a bunch of crimes)
The DOJ case involving his roll in Jan 6 insurrection he could face:
- 18 U.S. Code § 1512 - Tampering with a witness, victim, or an informant
- 18 U.S. Code § 371 - Conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud United States
- 18 U.S. Code § 2383 - Rebellion or insurrection
The DOJ case involving handling of government documents he could face:
- 18 U.S. Code § 793 - Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information
- 18 U.S. Code § 1519 - Destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in Federal investigations and bankruptcy
- 18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally [of government documents]
- 18 U.S. Code § 402 - Contempt
18 U.S. Code § 371 - Conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud United States
