^---- I suggest everyone should use this way of expressing their XMR/BTC ratio. ----^
2/3 of XMR for me if you consider other altcoins3/3 of XMR if you don't (I don't have BTC anymore)[/quote]
Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 163. (Read 387493 times)
3/3 of XMR if you don't (I don't have BTC anymore)[/quote]
-_-
blah blah blah, monero should not be overly inflationary, it must go like bitcoin, after mining 'stops', only transactions fees are rewarded to the miners, anything more will kill a currency, bitcoin model is well approved.
Nothing is approved. We have no idea what will happen to Bitcoin in a near future.blah blah blah, monero should not be overly inflationary, it must go like bitcoin, after mining 'stops', only transactions fees are rewarded to the miners, anything more will kill a currency, bitcoin model is well approved.
Since antiquity, the amount of gold has roughly gone up 100x. This is equal to 0.23% average APR.
I will continue in the Monero economics thread.
Let's continue...
So gold has inflation but can we say that this inflation is infinite ?
How does it compare with Monero ?
Well Monero, or any other crypto for that matter, won't be here for millenia - that much we know (or at least suspect with high degree of %).
Gold inflation, as a measure of scarcity, is "somewhat" negated by population increase / number of users of gold. For example in 1974 there was just 4 bn people... now we are running at 7.1bn people and going for the 8bn mark in a decade... So the gold distribution per person necessitates a doubling of the above ground quantities in the same time span between earth's 4bn and 8bn - just to remain constant. But the mining supply also accelerates due to better mining methods and incentives to mine (as price of gold skyrockets due to inflation in the monetary supply).
While gold is universal, in the sense that everyone knows it, cryptos are a booming market and thus they do not require a population doubling to reduce the impact of inflation. The only thing necessary for something like that is a wider adoption from the existing pool of humans. An ever-expanding user base negates inflation through new money flowing in.
Right, today Bitcoins lost are lost but will it be the case in a near future ?
There are simple solutions for your relatives to get your Bitcoins when you die.
There are simple solutions for your relatives to get your Bitcoins when you die.
It will always be like that. Take that Paul Walker guy as an example. It's not always the case, but people who are multimillionaires usually have a good bit of cash in their checking and other liquid accounts. If that guy had a bunch of BTC and drove his car into a tree making a fireball explosion, the odds of people getting the BTC aren't that high. He could either destroy it in the accident, or have it on his computer at home and with nobody knowing that he owned any, they might never find it, even with a wallet that wasn't encrypted.
Then you have all the people involved with BTC going to jail like Ross Ulbricht, maybe Karpeles. Not all of them are going to willingly tell the govt private keys. The coins will just go into limbo.
Sorry I did not find the economics thread anymore.. 
Here it is: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-economy-597878 
I will continue in the Monero economics thread.
Let's continue...
So gold has inflation but can we say that this inflation is infinite ?
How does it compare with Monero ?
Sorry I did not find the economics thread anymore..
People whining about continuous, non-zero block rewards look like fools to anyone with common sense. There's this thing that exists called strong encryption where people that own the coins are eventually going to die or misplace them somehow, and the outside world will never have a chance to get to many of those coins. It's the equivalent of having everyone on the planet bury their life savings on the ocean floor instead of using a bank.
If they die having money in a bank, either the government, their relatives, or the bank is going to get to it. You're not getting to the Bitcoins, so there will be a continuous depletion of supply from the economy. Just from car accidents alone, god knows how many BTC per year would be lost if it became a large part of the economy. Maybe 1/10th of 1% of the money supply lost per year due to, "woops, dropped my phone in the toilet".
If they die having money in a bank, either the government, their relatives, or the bank is going to get to it. You're not getting to the Bitcoins, so there will be a continuous depletion of supply from the economy. Just from car accidents alone, god knows how many BTC per year would be lost if it became a large part of the economy. Maybe 1/10th of 1% of the money supply lost per year due to, "woops, dropped my phone in the toilet".
Right, today Bitcoins lost are lost but will it be the case in a near future ?
There are simple solutions for your relatives to get your Bitcoins when you die.
People whining about continuous, non-zero block rewards look like fools to anyone with common sense. There's this thing that exists called strong encryption where people that own the coins are eventually going to die or misplace them somehow, and the outside world will never have a chance to get to many of those coins. It's the equivalent of having everyone on the planet bury their life savings on the ocean floor instead of using a bank.
If they die having money in a bank, either the government, their relatives, or the bank is going to get to it. You're not getting to the Bitcoins, so there will be a continuous depletion of supply from the economy. Just from car accidents alone, god knows how many BTC per year would be lost if it became a large part of the economy. Maybe 1/10th of 1% of the money supply lost per year due to, "woops, dropped my phone in the toilet".
If they die having money in a bank, either the government, their relatives, or the bank is going to get to it. You're not getting to the Bitcoins, so there will be a continuous depletion of supply from the economy. Just from car accidents alone, god knows how many BTC per year would be lost if it became a large part of the economy. Maybe 1/10th of 1% of the money supply lost per year due to, "woops, dropped my phone in the toilet".
-_-
blah blah blah, monero should not be overly inflationary, it must go like bitcoin, after mining 'stops', only transactions fees are rewarded to the miners, anything more will kill a currency, bitcoin model is well approved.
Nothing is approved. We have no idea what will happen to Bitcoin in a near future.blah blah blah, monero should not be overly inflationary, it must go like bitcoin, after mining 'stops', only transactions fees are rewarded to the miners, anything more will kill a currency, bitcoin model is well approved.
Since antiquity, the amount of gold has roughly gone up 100x. This is equal to 0.23% average APR.
I will continue in the Monero economics thread.
Let's continue...
So gold has inflation but can we say that this inflation is infinite ?
How does it compare with Monero ?
i hold around 600xmr per btc. i know its freaking a lot, but its only short term i think, once it droped below 0.0027 i could not resist. i will ride this a litle bit longer, than go back to my original allocation of around 250 xmr per btc. i am also mining with my desktop and get like 0.4 daily 
i know you guys play it safe and i respect you for that, but not everyone can do it. it also depends on the strategy i think, some are willing to take bigger risks than others and some have different time frames than others to trade.
i know you guys play it safe and i respect you for that, but not everyone can do it. it also depends on the strategy i think, some are willing to take bigger risks than others and some have different time frames than others to trade.
guys do you think we can have a serious discussion for ripples? - I do not own them but I am considering to buy some.
from my perspective there are BIG cons but also BIG pros regarding ripple. I understand that it is hated in the cryptoscene.
from my perspective there are BIG cons but also BIG pros regarding ripple. I understand that it is hated in the cryptoscene.
Ripple is not a crypto. So please let's not have a discussion on them, any more than we have concering Paypal or Zimbabwe dollars.
guys do you think we can have a serious discussion for ripples? - I do not own them but I am considering to buy some.
from my perspective there are BIG cons but also BIG pros regarding ripple. I understand that it is hated in the cryptoscene.
from my perspective there are BIG cons but also BIG pros regarding ripple. I understand that it is hated in the cryptoscene.
Yeah, as I suspected the money is starting to flow into XMR again.
BBR, not so much. Unless there is simply a significant lag in BBR following XMR it looks like I might have overestimated the XMR/BBR correlation this time.
For sure, there's not enough different for it to co-exist on any significant level. I think even 10% of XMR price is too much. I don't doubt another cryptonote coin will achieve some success but it needs to offer something significant, BBR isn't even a hedge really.
I hold 99 xmr per btc at the moment.
^---- I suggest everyone should use this way of expressing their XMR/BTC ratio. ----^
(The alternatives, such as "1% in XMR" are misleading, reliant on the exchange rate etc.)
=> Just the pure "how many XMR per BTC" tells it all
I have in between 1-5 XMR per BTC, so I am slightly overweight.
The 75/25 ratio someone suggested, would at this price equal 100 XMR per BTC.
* * * *
Wow, I think the rally has more legs!
(Currently everybody cannot buy 100:1 leverage, because the coins outstanding is 0.15:1....)
Yeah, as I suspected the money is starting to flow into XMR again.
BBR, not so much. Unless there is simply a significant lag in BBR following XMR it looks like I might have overestimated the XMR/BBR correlation this time.
I hold 99 xmr per btc at the moment.
^---- I suggest everyone should use this way of expressing their XMR/BTC ratio. ----^
(The alternatives, such as "1% in XMR" are misleading, reliant on the exchange rate etc.)
=> Just the pure "how many XMR per BTC" tells it all
I have in between 1-5 XMR per BTC, so I am slightly overweight.
The 75/25 ratio someone suggested, would at this price equal 100 XMR per BTC.
* * * *
Wow, I think the rally has more legs!
(Currently everybody cannot buy 100:1 leverage, because the coins outstanding is 0.15:1....)
In regards to portfolio allocation as an early investor in XMR with the rise in price from 0.000X XMR has become a much higher percentage of my portfolio than I either expected or would aim for. Its not 50-50 but its far from 99-1. At this point with what I still feel are cheap XMR I'm finding it very difficult not to make that percentage bigger let alone trying to diversify more and make it smaller!
As has been said 99/1 is easy with thousands of coins but if someone owned 10 BTC for example I would see it as a waste to only invest 1 if your well thought out analysis came to the conclusion of more upside in XMR, lets not forget were not talking about btc/fiat here we're talking about XMR/BTC which is another highly volatile asset in itself.
As has been said 99/1 is easy with thousands of coins but if someone owned 10 BTC for example I would see it as a waste to only invest 1 if your well thought out analysis came to the conclusion of more upside in XMR, lets not forget were not talking about btc/fiat here we're talking about XMR/BTC which is another highly volatile asset in itself.
I hold 99 xmr per btc at the moment.
I personally think that the hash rate and the price have to converge. I know this is an unpopular view, and I understand why it is unpopular, so please don't feel obligated to explain it to me. I am not confident that I have articulated the (very simple) reasoning which compells me:
XMR is presently the best yeilding coin to mine with a GPU. Thus, all the obsolete litecoin mining farms should be dumping coins as fast as they can be mined. This drives up hash rate until difficulty rises and price drops from the dumping.
When XMR is no longer the best yielding coin to mine with a GPU, these miners will move along to another coin, and the remaining miners will not be the economically efficient rational actors -- they will hold in larger proportions. Price will rise because supply is reduced. Hash rates will stabilize (or collapse, ending in the death of the coin, if only there were not a cult following -- but there is, so it won't).
As long as this cycle takes the price/difficulty to higher levels on average iterations, the economy will grow, regardless of mercantile applications. When the cult-miner cycle burns enough fiat, and dispersion levels are adequate, merchants will be attracted to the XMR market. At that point growth is self-sustanining, as long as the coin is fit for use.
I think stabilization requires that price-drop * difficulty-rise = XMR-mining-yield / Second-best-mining-yield, in this case, about 40%. I.e. price * difficulty should approach 1.8e6 XMR*hash.
At this time that is the only prediction I am willing to make about XMR in the near term. Feel free to call me on it.
I personally think that the hash rate and the price have to converge. I know this is an unpopular view, and I understand why it is unpopular, so please don't feel obligated to explain it to me. I am not confident that I have articulated the (very simple) reasoning which compells me:
XMR is presently the best yeilding coin to mine with a GPU. Thus, all the obsolete litecoin mining farms should be dumping coins as fast as they can be mined. This drives up hash rate until difficulty rises and price drops from the dumping.
When XMR is no longer the best yielding coin to mine with a GPU, these miners will move along to another coin, and the remaining miners will not be the economically efficient rational actors -- they will hold in larger proportions. Price will rise because supply is reduced. Hash rates will stabilize (or collapse, ending in the death of the coin, if only there were not a cult following -- but there is, so it won't).
As long as this cycle takes the price/difficulty to higher levels on average iterations, the economy will grow, regardless of mercantile applications. When the cult-miner cycle burns enough fiat, and dispersion levels are adequate, merchants will be attracted to the XMR market. At that point growth is self-sustanining, as long as the coin is fit for use.
I think stabilization requires that price-drop * difficulty-rise = XMR-mining-yield / Second-best-mining-yield, in this case, about 40%. I.e. price * difficulty should approach 1.8e6 XMR*hash.
At this time that is the only prediction I am willing to make about XMR in the near term. Feel free to call me on it.
Thanks for posting this analysis. I'm a newb trying to get a better understanding of this. Could you post what numbers we should be using for the variables in this equation?
XMR-mining-yield / Second-best-mining-yield, in this case, about 40%. I.e. price * difficulty should approach 1.8e6 XMR*hash.
i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero
obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.
obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.
Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.
Thank you for your advice, I agree it is best to remain cautious. I'm only playing with what I can afford to lose. But I have a very good feeling in Monero and I enjoy the company of more intelligent people. Hehe
If I had 10k BTC it would be a different story. I'm trying to rebuild my stash after dumping too much in July 2013 tbh...many lessons I have learned the hard way.
edit: like my sig?
I hold 99 xmr per btc at the moment.
I personally think that the hash rate and the price have to converge. I know this is an unpopular view, and I understand why it is unpopular, so please don't feel obligated to explain it to me. I am not confident that I have articulated the (very simple) reasoning which compells me:
XMR is presently the best yeilding coin to mine with a GPU. Thus, all the obsolete litecoin mining farms should be dumping coins as fast as they can be mined. This drives up hash rate until difficulty rises and price drops from the dumping.
When XMR is no longer the best yielding coin to mine with a GPU, these miners will move along to another coin, and the remaining miners will not be the economically efficient rational actors -- they will hold in larger proportions. Price will rise because supply is reduced. Hash rates will stabilize (or collapse, ending in the death of the coin, if only there were not a cult following -- but there is, so it won't).
As long as this cycle takes the price/difficulty to higher levels on average iterations, the economy will grow, regardless of mercantile applications. When the cult-miner cycle burns enough fiat, and dispersion levels are adequate, merchants will be attracted to the XMR market. At that point growth is self-sustanining, as long as the coin is fit for use.
I think stabilization requires that price-drop * difficulty-rise = XMR-mining-yield / Second-best-mining-yield, in this case, about 40%. I.e. price * difficulty should approach 1.8e6 XMR*hash.
At this time that is the only prediction I am willing to make about XMR in the near term. Feel free to call me on it.
I personally think that the hash rate and the price have to converge. I know this is an unpopular view, and I understand why it is unpopular, so please don't feel obligated to explain it to me. I am not confident that I have articulated the (very simple) reasoning which compells me:
XMR is presently the best yeilding coin to mine with a GPU. Thus, all the obsolete litecoin mining farms should be dumping coins as fast as they can be mined. This drives up hash rate until difficulty rises and price drops from the dumping.
When XMR is no longer the best yielding coin to mine with a GPU, these miners will move along to another coin, and the remaining miners will not be the economically efficient rational actors -- they will hold in larger proportions. Price will rise because supply is reduced. Hash rates will stabilize (or collapse, ending in the death of the coin, if only there were not a cult following -- but there is, so it won't).
As long as this cycle takes the price/difficulty to higher levels on average iterations, the economy will grow, regardless of mercantile applications. When the cult-miner cycle burns enough fiat, and dispersion levels are adequate, merchants will be attracted to the XMR market. At that point growth is self-sustanining, as long as the coin is fit for use.
I think stabilization requires that price-drop * difficulty-rise = XMR-mining-yield / Second-best-mining-yield, in this case, about 40%. I.e. price * difficulty should approach 1.8e6 XMR*hash.
At this time that is the only prediction I am willing to make about XMR in the near term. Feel free to call me on it.
i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero
obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.
obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.
Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.
I am sorry if this seems dumb but when one says this is it on a USD basis or just coin for coin?
From rpietila"s reply as well as a previous one I take it to mean coin for coin. But most of us don't have the luxury of having that many coins. I am 75/25 because I heard voices in my head and although my buy timing was good for btc it has sucked for XMR, at least in the short term. Those voices have rarely steered me wrong.
Truth is that it really depends on your outlook. 99/1 is more weighted toward XMR than market neutral so it is a bit of a bet on XMR, but if you feel more strongly that XMR will outperform BTC then 75/25 is justifiable. It's just a bolder and likely riskier bet, but not an irrational one.
i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero
obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.
obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.
Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.
I am sorry if this seems dumb but when one says this is it on a USD basis or just coin for coin?
From rpietila"s reply as well as a previous one I take it to mean coin for coin. But most of us don't have the luxury of having that many coins. I am 75/25 because I heard voices in my head and although my buy timing was good for btc it has sucked for XMR, at least in the short term. Those voices have rarely steered me wrong.
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