Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 119. (Read 907212 times)
I agree that it might not be fully safe, but I tend to think that coinbase bitcoins are real as representations of value since i can exchange these "virtual' btc to "real" btc at exactly 1:1 currently.
I'd say there's already precedent for exchange coins losing value very quickly:
rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
From Bitcoincharts.com, you can download all the data you need for making the comparison volume charts. I have some for my own use, and they confirm that volume is quite low now. I would attribute some of it to the increased OTC trading. Also people who hold BTC are satisfied with their holdings, the reason to shuffle them would come with increased prices but not before.
If you don't hold the private keys, you don't have any bitcoin.
It is like saying that if you don't control the "fundamental strings", then your body is not real.
I agree that it might not be fully safe, but I tend to think that coinbase bitcoins are real as representations of value since i can exchange these "virtual' btc to "real" btc at exactly 1:1 currently.
rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
From Bitcoincharts.com, you can download all the data you need for making the comparison volume charts. I have some for my own use, and they confirm that volume is quite low now. I would attribute some of it to the increased OTC trading. Also people who hold BTC are satisfied with their holdings, the reason to shuffle them would come with increased prices but not before.
Coinbase and bitinstant transactions are off the blockchain if both buyer and seller use the same service. Also, as you have pointed out here, bitcoins on an exchange are just IOUs. If you don't hold the private keys, you don't have any bitcoin.
The above chart looks to me like the uptrend in # of transactions is rounding off and turning downwards. (Not just the August top, but all of 2014)
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
That's correct. We've already seen the top of the bitcoin bubble.
Which one?
I'll send you a postcard from the next.
The above chart looks to me like the uptrend in # of transactions is rounding off and turning downwards. (Not just the August top, but all of 2014)
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
That's correct. We've already seen the top of the bitcoin bubble.
Thanks for sharing these Peter, they are awesome.
Zooming in a bit:
and a bit more:
and a bit more:
Here's an updated graph that shows the Metcalfe relationship using both number of TXs and number of unique addresses:
The recent price decline brought the curves a bit closer together.
The recent price decline brought the curves a bit closer together.
The above chart looks to me like the uptrend in # of transactions is rounding off and turning downwards. (Not just the August top, but all of 2014)
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
I think this chart is a better proxy for usage:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
I also think it's likely to decline into October, but it is well within variance parameters to maintain exponential growth into the indefinite future.
At some point you can probably fit a logistic or a Fisk c.d.f. to it. So far, the s/n ratio is too low to make a useful fit, and the exponential trend is dominant.
Here is the two year chart of the adjusted number of bitcoin transactions from Blockchain.info. Note that in the past few days the smoothed log graph has turned downwards. The seven day moving average removes most of the noise caused by day-of-week variation, but looking back over the history of the chart it appears there are noisy movements remaining. So I will be closely watching this latest trend of the transaction quantity to see whether it reverses sharply over the next week to move higher, or whether it continues downwards.
I believe that there is currently a divergence in the relationship between bitcoin price and number of transactions. The transaction quantity is now above March 2014 levels but the price is not. Let's see how this situation resolves.
I believe that there is currently a divergence in the relationship between bitcoin price and number of transactions. The transaction quantity is now above March 2014 levels but the price is not. Let's see how this situation resolves.
That is an interesting divergence to look into. Have you looked at how accurate it has been historically? An overlay maybe? I understand it might not be an accurate relationship to price, but it probably still would average out to something somewhat leading. Outside of the usual movement of coins, it would be interesting to know (albeit it is probably difficult to ascertain), how transaction volume with goods, services, etc. is related to price. There have been good arguments put forth that show an increase in BTC usage can drop the price. But at the same time, I can imagine that an increase in usage would of course mean more people are finding out about BTC and then putting a few aside.
Thanks for bringing the chart up,
IAS
The above chart looks to me like the uptrend in # of transactions is rounding off and turning downwards. (Not just the August top, but all of 2014)
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Here is the two year chart of the adjusted number of bitcoin transactions from Blockchain.info. Note that in the past few days the smoothed log graph has turned downwards. The seven day moving average removes most of the noise caused by day-of-week variation, but looking back over the history of the chart it appears there are noisy movements remaining. So I will be closely watching this latest trend of the transaction quantity to see whether it reverses sharply over the next week to move higher, or whether it continues downwards.
I believe that there is currently a divergence in the relationship between bitcoin price and number of transactions. The transaction quantity is now above March 2014 levels but the price is not. Let's see how this situation resolves.
I believe that there is currently a divergence in the relationship between bitcoin price and number of transactions. The transaction quantity is now above March 2014 levels but the price is not. Let's see how this situation resolves.
Today is one of the lowest, if not lowest volume I've seen since I bought my first bitcoins.
Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.
Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.
Saturdays ar mostly slow and low volume. Anyhow stamp has 8k+ 24h volume which is not so low, weeks ago there were days with 1-2k volume. Not sure about Chinese exchanges.
Important part is that we went down like 20$ on that volume. If we were flat that wouldn't be strange.
Today is one of the lowest, if not lowest volume I've seen since I bought my first bitcoins.
Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.
Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.
Saturdays ar mostly slow and low volume. Anyhow stamp has 8k+ 24h volume which is not so low, weeks ago there were days with 1-2k volume. Not sure about Chinese exchanges.
Today is one of the lowest, if not lowest volume I've seen since I bought my first bitcoins.
Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.
Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.
rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
From Bitcoincharts.com, you can download all the data you need for making the comparison volume charts. I have some for my own use, and they confirm that volume is quite low now. I would attribute some of it to the increased OTC trading. Also people who hold BTC are satisfied with their holdings, the reason to shuffle them would come with increased prices but not before.
rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
I am not rpietila, but here's a list of 82 exchanges and their volume, you can also see the share of the total volume. So it's very easy to calculate what the total volume was. http://www.coinometrics.com/exchanges?display=%25%20Share&vol=Area&volume=Volume%20(BTC)&stack=Unstacked
This excludes zero-fee exchanges like okcoin and huobi. But it includes the most known exchanges.
rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
I am not rpietila, but here's a list of 82 exchanges and their volume, you can also see the share of the total volume. So it's very easy to calculate what the total volume was. http://www.coinometrics.com/exchanges?display=%25%20Share&vol=Area&volume=Volume%20(BTC)&stack=Unstacked
This excludes zero-fee exchanges like okcoin and huobi. But it includes the most known exchanges.
rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.
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