rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 120.

frienemy

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I was promised da moon

Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 05:07:26 AM

- The 2011 bubble saw Bitcoin price increasing 6,400 times in a year. It is understandable that there was a lengthy period of digesting the gains.
- The 2013 bubble saw the price increasing 620 times in 2 years. It is unlikely that the digestion will be as severe.

I see a gloomy pattern...

2011 bubble: price increase of 6,400 times. Timeframe 1 year
2013 bubble: price increase of 620 times. Timeframe 2 years
--> 2017 bubble: price increase of only 60 times. Timeframe long 4 years (because log)

OMG I will only be millionaire by then Wink

And for that I shall wait another few years, constantly fearing those 10 to 30% crashes along the way?

YES I WILL

rpietila

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Quote from: BombaUcigasa on August 22, 2014, 04:20:33 AM

Do you also account for half a year of fresh coins added at this price level with lower production costs, or the fact that the price has increased 30-fold in 20 months.
Have you considered the possibility of another "nuclear winter" like the one from 2012 after the first popular bubble?

Shitcoins do not trouble me the least. If gold was prone to be replaced by shit, it would already have happened in 5 millennia.

I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin's next growth spurt delaying by more than a year, unless something catastrophic happens to the world at large (USA going full retard, shutting down Internet, etc.).

- The 2011 bubble saw Bitcoin price increasing 6,400 times in a year. It is understandable that there was a lengthy period of digesting the gains.
- The 2013 bubble saw the price increasing 620 times in 2 years. It is unlikely that the digestion will be as severe.

BombaUcigasa

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Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 03:42:46 AM

Reversion to the trendline:

Once the bubble comes, it will be the more ferocious, the longer we've had to wait for it.

Price is only the market's gauge of the underlying economy. Bitcoin economy, including also the prospective investors in the pipeline, is now in 2-5 times better shape than in last December. Yet price is halved. Do your math.

Do you also account for half a year of fresh coins added at this price level with lower production costs, or the fact that the price has increased 30-fold in 20 months.
Have you considered the possibility of another "nuclear winter" like the one from 2012 after the first popular bubble?

Its About Sharing

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Antifragile

Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 03:42:46 AM

Reversion to the trendline:

Once the bubble comes, it will be the more ferocious, the longer we've had to wait for it.

Price is only the market's gauge of the underlying economy. Bitcoin economy, including also the prospective investors in the pipeline, is now in 2-5 times better shape than in last December. Yet price is halved. Do your math.

There is probably some pent up energy being created, but when I look at the chart it seems we are still just coming out of the last bubble. (Prior moves up came after long sideways action, we are not there yet.)

My greater concern is that it looks like there is going to be a substantial stock market adjustment (DOWN) in the next few months. Many are in agreement. The relevance here is that at this point, a lot of money, perhaps most, in BTC is speculative and I'm afraid that will come back out and we will go down with the markets. But how much is up in the air.

Now, all bets are off if we see another repeat of Cypress somewhere in the world. Then BTC is not only speculative again, but protective.
TBH - I see this delay as great for the overall "common people" economy. It is giving more people more time to get involved at a reasonable price.
It is giving people more time in those 3rd world countries to get in before the next big move up. The world GREATLY needs some wealth redistribution and this is a great way, perhaps the only way these days.

IAS

rpietila

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Reversion to the trendline:

Once the bubble comes, it will be the more ferocious, the longer we've had to wait for it.

Price is only the market's gauge of the underlying economy. Bitcoin economy, including also the prospective investors in the pipeline, is now in 2-5 times better shape than in last December. Yet price is halved. Do your math.

creekbore

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Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

The issue seems to be sustainability, the last two hanging man formation have seen a reversal but we always encounter resistance and there just isn't the buying volume to break through and establish a new support level.

I suspect this is partly to due with hangovers from Gox, Neo et al and partly (maybe) because those trading are working within more professional parameters ie profit-taking is realised at lower levels but more often. Personally, I think the longer we go without some ludicrous bubble, the better; indeed it would be best if there was never another 'bubble'.

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

Slipperyslope - If the volume gets huge by the end of the week (as it is key), then I will believe a reversal is possible. It is a great indicator, though I'm not sure I've seen many on BTC's recent charts. It often seems to engulfing candles, but I'm hopeful here. (edit - I was looking at the green ones, have been 2 red hammers that were at least bottoms, so I stand corrected).

IAS

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: Phillis on August 21, 2014, 01:12:03 PM

I'm here for some bitcoin related TA.

Here is the weekly chart from Bitstamp where we are watching the rightmost candle which presently has the technical shape of a hammer. This candle is only 4 days old so it could end up with a different shape. Conventional TA wisdom regarding hammers is that they often indicate a trend reversal when following a significant downtrend, e.g. April 6. The time resolution is not important as candlestick TA is fractal in that sense. On the other hand, a hammer can also occur in the midst of a trend as happened September 29, 2013.

Because the price previously stabilized around $650, that would be a resistance zone if indeed the trend reverses to a rally.

An important aspect of TA is that traders and algorithmic bots look for these patterns and take action. So even if you think TA is unsound, it is an indicator of the possible actions of speculators and their trading bots.

Phillis

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lets save the monero talk to the altcoin thread please. I'm here for some bitcoin related TA.

David Latapie

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on August 02, 2014, 06:30:05 PM

Suppose Monero (or a different alt) were to gain enough traction for it to appear inevitable that it would eventually topple bitcoin. How feasible would it be to fork bitcoin to adopt some or all features of Monero? iow, a merger of the first mover advantage of bitcoin with the technical advantages of Monero. I suppose this question has two parts: 1) What would be the technical feasibility of doing this? and 2) Would the community go along?

Damn hard. Ring signature is a beast. Plus, this is not only the technology that must be considered - the human part (involvement/activity/culture of innovation/resistance to inertia) also matters.

Being in the frontline (I am a Monero core team member), I can confidently say that Monero is increasingly becoming more than a special feature (the ring sigs or other).

Quote from: JimNastics on August 14, 2014, 04:24:01 AM

Hasn't AnonyMint proved that Monero is not truly anonymous, certainly not to a "killer attribute" level? I've seen him tear it apart in a thread on here, and stayed away for that reason.

There is a reason why we use the tagline "secure, private, untraceable". Anonymity is an absolute and we don't live in an absolute universe. Plus, viewkey allows some people of your choosing to know your balance (e.g. public companies, donations...)

Quote from: Biodom on August 14, 2014, 09:21:06 PM

Tell us more about Monero, please. I already got 3-4 times more XMR than BTC (in units, not in actual value), and would like to understand it better. Seems awesome on the surface, but will it ever grow beyond the current state? I am willing to risk a bit more on it, as it sounds quite appealing.

Synchronous communication: #monero (or #monero-dev if you are technically minded.
Asynchronous communication: r/Monero (because commands may be upvoted. And later our own website. As well as the Monero Community FAQ.

I am also writing a Monero Handbook which will cater for three audiences (general public, crypto-enthusiasts, dev). I won't be published in the next weeks, but any question you'd ask could help me make ist better fulfill its goal.

Thank you ArcticMine for your post. Anyone curious about Monero, read his post.

GreekBitcoin

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getmonero.org

Quote from: David Latapie on August 21, 2014, 10:21:38 AM

Quote from: Biodom on August 01, 2014, 10:24:36 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on August 01, 2014, 09:58:17 AM

^ Agreed that Bitcoin is the way out. But again, this is another in a long train of technologies that have made everyone's lives better. It's just that now we're getting into the really huge ones. Bitcoin, prediction markets, decentralized everything...then in a short while the pace of new tech becomes impossible to comprehend, let alone predict.

aka Technological Singularity?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

If you come to Malla, you will have the opportuntity to speak with a board member of the French Transhumanist Association and the International Longevity Alliance. I anticipate great discussions!

Damn, i am very interested on those things!

David Latapie

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: Biodom on August 01, 2014, 10:24:36 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on August 01, 2014, 09:58:17 AM

^ Agreed that Bitcoin is the way out. But again, this is another in a long train of technologies that have made everyone's lives better. It's just that now we're getting into the really huge ones. Bitcoin, prediction markets, decentralized everything...then in a short while the pace of new tech becomes impossible to comprehend, let alone predict.

aka Technological Singularity?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

If you come to Malla, you will have the opportuntity to speak with a board member of the French Transhumanist Association and the International Longevity Alliance. I anticipate great discussions!

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 20, 2014, 04:26:59 PM

Looks like a hammer to me, which is a sign of bulls getting stronger!

More info here:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hammer.asp

I too hope that candle is a hammer, or more generally ends the week at its highest level.

dEBRUYNE

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Looks like a hammer to me, which is a sign of bulls getting stronger!

More info here:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hammer.asp

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Here is the one-week resolution chart from Bitstamp. The rightmost green candle is not yet a week old but it appears that the downtrend has reversed . . .

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Here is the three-day resolution bitcoin chart from Bitstamp. Prices have rebounded strongly from the support line around $450. Given the increasing quantity of transactions this month, perhaps this is a price trend reversal that will push prices towards $600 again. If that happens, the next resistance would be around $660.

RandomSeq

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Quote from: bitdig on August 18, 2014, 02:01:31 PM

watch this, it in russian, but watch it from 2:40, "Hunt on stop loss", this is the backoffice of the MT4 platform, allowing to manipulate and trigger stop loss:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0JInOpEVfw&app=desktop

Very interesting educational info, thanks.

klee

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Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2014, 04:13:28 AM

Quote from: bitdig on August 18, 2014, 02:01:31 PM

it is not flash crash
It is exchange manipulation to trigger stop loss on MT4 trading platform with leverage.

This is the most likely explanation. It has happened before and will happen again. If you trust the exchange enough to keep lowball bids there, you can make lotsa money. Being leveraged long is not very good proposition with these liquidation crashes to 102 and 308... Cry

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvY4u8uCIAAFLYD.jpg:large

rpietila

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Quote from: bitdig on August 18, 2014, 02:01:31 PM

it is not flash crash
It is exchange manipulation to trigger stop loss on MT4 trading platform with leverage.

This is the most likely explanation. It has happened before and will happen again. If you trust the exchange enough to keep lowball bids there, you can make lotsa money. Being leveraged long is not very good proposition with these liquidation crashes to 102 and 308... Cry

bigtimespaghetti

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bigtimespaghetti.com

Quote from: molecular on August 19, 2014, 02:48:32 AM

Quote from: MahaRamana on August 18, 2014, 06:43:03 AM

Flash crash on BTC-E where someone sold BTC as low as 328 USD !

Edit : some people sold as low as 308 USD on BTC-E while the price is 465 on stamp. What a strange exchange.

you are aware btc-e offers leveraged trading and therefore has a thing called "forced liquidation"?

Some of that could have been bots too I suppose.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 120. (Read 907229 times)