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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 146. (Read 907229 times)

BitChick
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 06:33:02 PM
#4329
Quote from: dnaleor on July 23, 2014, 06:17:41 PM
Quote from: BitChick on July 23, 2014, 02:40:59 PM
Violent reaction?  That sounds good!

For those of us that have been through a couple "bubbles" we now how that feels!  It is crazy!!!

It's always an amazing ride, but i'm not very productive during bubbles (I've seen the last 2).
All I do is check charts, count my money, draw lines, post smileys, tell all my friends how I will be a millionaire within a few years and dream about anarchy  Grin

To the people who never saw it happen, it's just surreal. it starts with some wild swings passing the all time high. That fact already is fantastic. All time highs that are broken is "mind blown". After that you can see your money gain 50% in matter of days, pullbacks of 25% or more. sometimes you money can double in a few hours Tongue

calling it "crazy" is an understatement. It's inimaginable if you never felt it  Cheesy

edit: I remember I went to the hairdresser and came back home. Told my dad I "earned" 4000 EUR in those 30 min Tongue
You should have seen the look on his face Wink

It is hard not to be glued to the computer during the quick rise in price.  I would take a shower and then afterwards look at the charts and say, "Wow.  I just made $100 taking a quick shower!"  Wink  Of course, as a holder, much of those gains were lost. Sad  Easy come, easy go I guess. 
dnaleor
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 06:17:41 PM
#4328
Quote from: BitChick on July 23, 2014, 02:40:59 PM
Violent reaction?  That sounds good!

For those of us that have been through a couple "bubbles" we now how that feels!  It is crazy!!!

It's always an amazing ride, but i'm not very productive during bubbles (I've seen the last 2).
All I do is check charts, count my money, draw lines, post smileys, tell all my friends how I will be a millionaire within a few years and dream about anarchy  Grin

To the people who never saw it happen, it's just surreal. it starts with some wild swings passing the all time high. That fact already is fantastic. All time highs that are broken is "mind blown". After that you can see your money gain 50% in matter of days, pullbacks of 25% or more. sometimes you money can double in a few hours Tongue

calling it "crazy" is an understatement. It's inimaginable if you never felt it  Cheesy

edit: I remember I went to the hairdresser and came back home. Told my dad I "earned" 4000 EUR in those 30 min Tongue
You should have seen the look on his face Wink
hdbuck
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 06:10:14 PM
#4327
Quote from: rpietila on July 23, 2014, 03:30:50 PM
Quote from: darlidada on July 23, 2014, 03:23:46 PM
Quote from: MNDan on July 23, 2014, 03:22:58 PM
If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?

10 times ?

Order of magnitude == 10 times.

For BTC, the plateaus have been observed at 0.005, 1, 5, 12, 120, 620.

EDIT: if it plays out according to the pattern, the next one would be muted at around the ATH ~1200, and then the superbubble would ensue.

rpietila, dunno if you follow masterluc's thread but if you do, i'd love your views about his couple years bear/flat market (as in not breaking previous ATH) prediction.
rpietila
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 03:30:50 PM
#4326
Quote from: darlidada on July 23, 2014, 03:23:46 PM
Quote from: MNDan on July 23, 2014, 03:22:58 PM
If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?

10 times ?

Order of magnitude == 10 times.

For BTC, the plateaus have been observed at 0.005, 1, 5, 12, 120, 620.

EDIT: if it plays out according to the pattern, the next one would be muted at around the ATH ~1200, and then the superbubble would ensue.
darlidada
hero member
Activity: 723
Merit: 503
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 03:23:46 PM
#4325
Quote from: MNDan on July 23, 2014, 03:22:58 PM
If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?

10 times ?
MNDan
full member
Activity: 287
Merit: 101
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 03:22:58 PM
#4324
If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?
BitChick
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 02:40:59 PM
#4323
Quote from: rpietila on July 23, 2014, 02:02:47 PM
This was well received elsewhere:

Quote
The thing that is going on with bitcoin price, iirc, is called "price rigidity". When an equilibrium is found, two forces enter into play:
- the longer the price stays stable, the more people perceive that it is a "fair" price and get used to accepting it
- the longer the price stays stable, it eats the available supply (or demand) of goods at the said price behind the scenes. When the other side is collectively tapped out, the price reacts violently.

With things like oil, the situation may play out over decades due to the slow investment cycle. With Bitcoin, the periods of rigidity have historically lasted a few months at most, and always corrected up.

An interesting tenet to Monero, it has now oscillated in a narrowing range. A possibility is that we'll see a longish time (with Monero, a few weeks perhaps) of apparent stability around 0.005 until one side is exhausted. Then the ensuing correction will be in the 1 order of magnitude range. Guess the direction Wink


Violent reaction?  That sounds good!

For those of us that have been through a couple "bubbles" we now how that feels!  It is crazy!!!
rpietila
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 02:02:47 PM
#4322
This was well received elsewhere:

Quote
The thing that is going on with bitcoin price, iirc, is called "price rigidity". When an equilibrium is found, two forces enter into play:
- the longer the price stays stable, the more people perceive that it is a "fair" price and get used to accepting it
- the longer the price stays stable, it eats the available supply (or demand) of goods at the said price behind the scenes. When the other side is collectively tapped out, the price reacts violently.

With things like oil, the situation may play out over decades due to the slow investment cycle. With Bitcoin, the periods of rigidity have historically lasted a few months at most, and always corrected up.

An interesting tenet to Monero, it has now oscillated in a narrowing range. A possibility is that we'll see a longish time (with Monero, a few weeks perhaps) of apparent stability around 0.005 until one side is exhausted. Then the ensuing correction will be in the 1 order of magnitude range. Guess the direction Wink
Rakitich
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 10:45:35 AM
#4321
What does rpietila say abotu these crazy 5000+ predictions?
luigi1111
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Activity: 1105
Merit: 1000
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 09:38:52 AM
#4320
Quote from: dnaleor on July 23, 2014, 01:54:18 AM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 23, 2014, 01:37:01 AM
Quote from: dnaleor on July 23, 2014, 01:34:56 AM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 10:00:57 PM
Quote from: dnaleor on July 22, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 12:34:21 PM
I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap

Yes - that is correct. Is a 1% fee agreeable?

I just deposited the 0.1 BTC
Can't yet see it on the betting page, but I guess it's waiting for confirmations.

edit: back on topic Smiley

I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 800 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD Wink

Whew, the time limit was extended. I hadn't heard back from you, so I went home and totally forgot about even checking the forum, lol.

I've deposited 0.2 now. Best of luck!
dnaleor
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 02:14:25 AM
#4319
Quote from: molecular on July 23, 2014, 02:03:02 AM
Quote from: dnaleor on July 23, 2014, 01:54:18 AM
I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 8000 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD Wink

If that's based on TA I'd like to see it ;-)

Maybe you meant "800" instead of "8000"? That would make more sense.

I can agree we will pause at 800 for a while. Have been saying so (and been laughed at for doing so) during the runup to 680. It could be 800 is the new 180 (remember Adam constantly saying: "180 by end of next week"). If history repeats according to this, we'd pause at 800, but not for very long, just for a little breath-taking.

I think the jump to 800 is still a month or three off, though. Wouldn't mind being proven wrong, of course.


yes 800, i'll edit Tongue
I think also that 800 will be a short pause Smiley

Bitcoin can move very fast. Now it really seems unlikely to be above 1000 USD by september, but I think it will happen.

molecular
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 02:03:02 AM
#4318
Quote from: dnaleor on July 23, 2014, 01:54:18 AM
I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 8000 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD Wink

If that's based on TA I'd like to see it ;-)

Maybe you meant "800" instead of "8000"? That would make more sense.

I can agree we will pause at 800 for a while. Have been saying so (and been laughed at for doing so) during the runup to 680. It could be 800 is the new 180 (remember Adam constantly saying: "180 by end of next week"). If history repeats according to this, we'd pause at 800, but not for very long, just for a little breath-taking.

I think the jump to 800 is still a month or three off, though. Wouldn't mind being proven wrong, of course.
dnaleor
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 01:54:18 AM
#4317
Quote from: BetMoose on July 23, 2014, 01:37:01 AM
Quote from: dnaleor on July 23, 2014, 01:34:56 AM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 10:00:57 PM
Quote from: dnaleor on July 22, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 12:34:21 PM
I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap

Yes - that is correct. Is a 1% fee agreeable?

I just deposited the 0.1 BTC
Can't yet see it on the betting page, but I guess it's waiting for confirmations.

edit: back on topic Smiley

I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 800 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD Wink
BetMoose
sr. member
Activity: 372
Merit: 250
Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 01:37:01 AM
#4316
Quote from: dnaleor on July 23, 2014, 01:34:56 AM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 10:00:57 PM
Quote from: dnaleor on July 22, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 12:34:21 PM
I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap

Yes - that is correct. Is a 1% fee agreeable?
dnaleor
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 23, 2014, 01:34:56 AM
#4315
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 10:00:57 PM
Quote from: dnaleor on July 22, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 12:34:21 PM
I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap
BetMoose
sr. member
Activity: 372
Merit: 250
Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 22, 2014, 10:00:57 PM
#4314
Quote from: dnaleor on July 22, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 12:34:21 PM
I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!
EFS
staff
Activity: 3822
Merit: 2123
Crypto Swap Exchange
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 22, 2014, 08:26:49 PM
#4313
I'm bullish and patient for both BTC and XMR. The only reason is I couldn't fill up my stash yet.
I don't complain if we hang around 3-digits until the end of this year.
BitChick
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 22, 2014, 06:30:09 PM
#4312
Quote from: Kipsy89 on July 22, 2014, 05:42:44 PM
So who's bullish around here? (Since this is risto's thread I expect everyone to be) But what are your current predictions for decision time or time for some decent train?

(With my hand high in the air) ME ME ME ME!   Grin

Always bullish, but a little impatient at this point.  I wish I could give Bitcoin a good kick right about now to get it started.  It isn't for lack of bringing some new investors either.  Just the past few weeks I have had many friends decide to buy, with quite substantial amount too.  And with Dell accepting it now?  What is keeping the price so stable I wonder? 
dnaleor
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 22, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
#4311
Quote from: BetMoose on July 22, 2014, 12:34:21 PM
I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2
Kipsy89
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Relax!
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
July 22, 2014, 05:42:44 PM
#4310
So who's bullish around here? (Since this is risto's thread I expect everyone to be) But what are your current predictions for decision time or time for some decent train?
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