Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 152. (Read 907212 times)

Fix your castle man...

The archetype of the cryptocurrency guy.

Lol, show this to yourself 4 years ago. Old you'll say, nice car. Then you can say: what about the castle?

http://imgur.com/TYsKlqZ

Correct, but you can also use the future amount of 21 million coins, as we know for sure they will be created. In that case price and market cap is the same thing.

I have a proposal for constructing a synthetic currency, aimed to make loans etc. in cryptoworld more beneficial for both participants.

"When the trendline reaches the previous peak, the bull starts in plus or minus 4-6 weeks."

If the trend holds, that implies the next big run-up could start any time between now and late September.

I'm not a guru myself. By my trading one would think that I don't know even "buy low, sell high"  

Market cap is calculated by multiplying market price to number of coins. Since number of coins grows, the chart would look a bit different: left side will be lower, right side will be higher. The horizontal stretch on the left edge won't be horizontal, it will go uphill.  

So, the benefits:
-The graph will reflect market share of the new economy, rather than a derivative from it.
-Therefore the graph will be closer to the logistic curve (which describes growth of a new economy).
-Therefore our estimate of "real" price will be closer to reality.

There is a way to test it: we should compare the two linear approximations: of price-based curve and of cap-based curve. If I'm right, the cap-based one should show better fit (i.e. lesser variance or whatever is used to measure the fit) than the price-based one.

(I'm not claiming there will be huge difference, but there must be some, so why not improve our model if we can).

   Market cap is calculated from market price, is it not?  I don't see the benefit.  Wouldn't it just provide a trend that is marginally lower over time than price alone (while there is a block reward), and then we'd have to calculate back to find the price trend?  Mind you, beyond buy low, sell high, I know nothing of trading.  Maybe you could explain it to me 

The exponential trendline is not quite TA, because it is not derived from sentiments, mass psychology or whatever TA predictions are derived from. The trendline is result of technological revolution, growth of new technology and it's natural to measure and forecast this growth in % of market share, rather than on price of new gadget. Growth of internet wasn't measured in price of routers, and growth of mobiles wasn't measured in price of mobile phones. 

So the exponential is not derived using TA methods, but it can be used as input in TA analysis. We can extrapolate growth of bitcoin market share, from this share we calculate "real" price of bitcoin and that price we can use as fundamentals, to estimate how much bitcoin is overprices or underpriced.

Does it make any sense?

Do we know usd or eur market cap? MAybe because with a printing press it tends to 0 therefor value tends to 0

Market cap is good for testing the "network effect", but I wouldn't use it for Technical Analysis.
(I don't know people using TA on the EUR or USD market cap )

Speaking of the method. Somebody once suggested using BTC capitalization, rather than price. IMO it's very good idea. 

that is my updated trendline yes, but my trendline was always lower than the one of risto and SlipperySlope
(that's why I want to start a little discussion about the method)

Is that the updated trendline? It's only 1000 now? Then it really got dragged down a lot   

I'll repost my updated trendline here also:



I have a few thoughts about the much quoted "logistic model" (can be found here)
I think the logistic model is the correct one, but I tried to redo the work but it seems the author just used eyeballing to decide where the trendline "fits" based on some points and not on regression analysis. I know it's difficult, I tried (and failed) to do it myself based on regression analysis (because you need to do some assumptions about "saturation price" and the time needed to reach 50% of the market cap) but I'll give it another try.

So far, I think just an exponential model gives the best results. I also have some pre gox data, but making a regression analysis (like risto does) on asumptions starting in 2009, is very tricky: you give an overwhelming influence to the estimated data and data with very low traded volume. In fact, it would be more logical to assign weights based on traded USD volume. To simplify: trends based on the last year or 2 years data, I think will give better results than using as much data as possible.

thoughts?

(PS: I did not meant to offend someone.
I just want a small debate on what is the best approach for our models and maybe we can learn something from eachother )


edit: when we significantly deny the exponential trend, it could mean that we are in the second half of the adoption curve. So an exponential model is only valid until it's broken. on the other hand, the logistic mdoel takes a guess on when the market reached 50% of the saturation level...

I'll be organizing a summer retreat in Malla castle in August. The place is nice in summer. We had an event there already last month with 23 people attending from at least 11 countries.

Show it to me!

I put this info in Excel just to take a look at what the trendline gives for some future dates... lets just say next year looks amazing.  

2016 just looks like a dream world... but the fact that it could be reality blows my mind.  I wish I had known about Bitcoin earlier, but damn am I happy I found it when I did.

Thanks for the update!

This version of the formula directly works on Wolfram Alpha (copy/paste):

10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days))

or just follow this link:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E%28-2.869800+%2B+0.003012+*+%28%28number+of+days+since+2009+Jan+03%29%2Fdays%29%29

Yes I have seen that before.appreciate.

 9:14 to 09:39 almost perfect timing ))  two same thought's and actions almost identical time on earth.

I Update his spreadsheet on my pc on a daily basis, But as I understand I was making a wrong assumption on trendline. As it should be constantly recalculating itself to current cycle.
I should work on spreadsheet to correct the matters regards to your last mentioned points.

I'll also need to find that doubling time indicator. But somehow more and more I look at the data I feel that this cycle could be a hyper-cycle.

I definitely don't think about selling any BTC , Crypto infrastructure and legal basis are starting to make ground.
I have heard of bitcoin since 2013-08 first invested since 2013-10 never sold any. Will be buying it till it reaches ATH. As I'm in mid 20's, after that there will be no way to increase the holdings by significant amount. Income will be  spent more on business and quality of life improvement.
 
As per legal issues on Bitcoin, Would you agree that Eastern financial centers- Singapore and Hong Kong will adopt Bitcoin way faster than Wall st. ? Taking in mind the position of China as master economy. Or you think that It will be faster lobbied by US top 10 families?