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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 250. (Read 907212 times)

hero member
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Stephen Reed
According to MWI of QM (Everett's), bitcoin in the future will have value between $0 and $1 mil or even $1 bil (by 2200), but futures of each of us are also spread between multiple outcomes (worlds). Some of our alternative selves will be associated with the $0 scenario, some with $1mil. However, nobody knows the probability graph of this distribution, hence bitcoin future is an enigma. It could be that there is only 0.1% chance that it succeeds or 99.9% chance. I don't think that this could be established right now. Of course, Mr. Pietila is highly (99.9%?) certain based on the 5.3 year graph, and I sympathize with his position much more than I am with bitcoin at $0 scenario.

Perhaps the probability distribution is unknowable without a complete model of human economic behavior.

But its clear that the distribution has been moving away from the zero probability as evidence of adoption accumulates. I suppose that there is a correlation between speculators' perception of the distribution and the current price. Periodic surveys of the general population in accordance with the wisdom of crowds might also give some insight into changes in the shape of the distribution over time.

Another aspect of the distribution is that informed analysts suggest that the distribution is bimodal, in that its supposed to be very likely that either (1) bitcoin price goes to zero, or (2) bitcoin price goes very high. Maybe as we get closer to the halfway point of adoption, expectations of the general population will tip towards (2).
legendary
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Everything past is definite, everything future is probabilistic.  


No, there is no difference between the past and the future. Causality is not probabilistic, neither in the past nor in the future.

Einstein:

 "I do not believe in free will. Schopenhauer's words: 'Man can do what he wants, but he cannot will what he wants,[Der Mensch kann wohl tun, was er will, aber er kann nicht wollen, was er will]' accompany me in all situations throughout my life and reconcile me with the actions of others, even if they are rather painful to me. This awareness of the lack of free will keeps me from taking myself and my fellow men too seriously as acting and deciding individuals, and from losing my temper." Schopenhauer's clearer, actual words were: "You can do what you will, but in any given moment of your life you can will only one definite thing and absolutely nothing other than that one thing." [Du kannst tun was du willst: aber du kannst in jedem gegebenen Augenblick deines Lebens nur ein Bestimmtes wollen und schlechterdings nichts anderes als dieses eine.]

I dunno why you brought causality into it. I'm 100% with nagarjan on that one, its his most fundamental thought...

Neither from itself nor from another,
Nor from both,
Nor without a cause,
Does anything whatever, anywhere arise.


This is nirwana, the non-world.

You ask why I brought causality? As soon as you ask 'why?', you want to know the cause of the effect.
And I answer: I brought causality because the world is either deterministic (causal) or it is probabilistic (noncausal).
In my opinion (as well as Diodorus, Spinoza, Hume, Schopenhauer et al.) the world is fully deterministic. The MWI QM interpretation is deterministic as well.




According to MWI of QM (Everett's), bitcoin in the future will have value between $0 and $1 mil or even $1 bil (by 2200), but futures of each of us are also spread between multiple outcomes (worlds). Some of our alternative selves will be associated with the $0 scenario, some with $1mil. However, nobody knows the probability graph of this distribution, hence bitcoin future is an enigma. It could be that there is only 0.1% chance that it succeeds or 99.9% chance. I don't think that this could be established right now. Of course, Mr. Pietila is highly (99.9%?) certain based on the 5.3 year graph, and I sympathize with his position much more than I am with bitcoin at $0 scenario.
hero member
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Edit: I will no longer accept BTC as payment, USD only please.

I know diehards are going to resist the point of my immediately prior post, but the fact is that for money to become widely accepted by the masses, it must lose its "no debasement" store-of-value qualities. I explained this in great detail else where on this forum (from memory only see my debate with MoodShadow in the Peter Schiff thread in the Economics sub-forum, also my thread "No Money Exists Without The Majority", and all my debates with forum member bitfreak! in his Mini Block Chain threads, and with bitfreak! in my "Failure to..." thread in the Bitcoin Discussion sub-forum). You can find data to back up my arguments in those prior discussions. Let me attempt now another superior summary.

The delusion of the goldbugs (which apparently Satoshi strategically understood) is that debasement is bad for the masses. The truth is the antithesis. Fact is that wealth is power-law distributed[1], thus if money isn't debased the masses become enslaved to the rich.

So society tries to redistribute from the rich to the poor, but this is crony capitalism because of the power vacuum of democracy[2]. Instead of redistributing capital from the (less knowledgeable) rich to the knowledge-intensive entrepreneurs, the collective action actually distributes from the (upper middle-class) entrepreneurs to the poor. The elite capture the collective action and rule it.

So the problem is not debasement. The problem is who controls taxation and debasement, which are the elite. This natural system is basically that the biggest fish eat all the smaller fish.

This is disastrous because it concentrates capital away from those who have the most knowledge capital and towards the top-down fatcats and the unproductive lazy poor.

It is important to understand the reason that the rich are less knowledgeable than the smaller entrepreneur and also this is why smaller things grow faster than larger things. The reason is fitness, which I covered in great detail in the "Information is Alive!" essay on my blog. I elaborated on these concepts in my two essays which CoinCube has linked from his OP in the Economic Devastation thread. I am not saying a rich man isn't smarter, rather I am pointing out a natural law of physics, which is that information can't travel instantly. If the speed-of-light were infinite, nothing would exist and the universe would collapse into a single infinitesimal point in time, because the past would be communicated to the present instantly and thus time would cease to exist. Friction is required for existence. This is explained more analytically in "The Universe" essay on my blog.

You can understand this less abstractly by noting that a manager can't possibly keep track of all the details that his workers are doing. And this is why until you learn to make your own decisions, you can never sustain wealth. The point is that each person knows about opportunities which are local to his/her environment which the fatcat capitalist can't possibly know. Also there is the issue of economies-of-scale, the fatcat can't double his investment in a year because the investments of size don't grow that fast, but the guy who sells mineral water on a hot scalding day, can triple or more his capital outlay.

You see that only productivity sustains wealth. There is no such thing as storing wealth without it losing its value. That couldn't possibly exist in any framework that you could envision. This is a high IQ point and most readers will still not get it after reading the above over and over. If you get this point, pat yourself on the back, it means you are very smart.

The key is that you as a very productive knowledge entrepreneur can grow your wealth faster than the fatcat, so if money is debased by say 5% per year, then you gain relative wealth as compared to the fatcat. That is if the debasement isn't being gamed by that damn power vacuum of democracy crony capitalism. You can also say arithmetically that no debasement is required for you to gain against the fatcat for as long as the power vacuum isn't in control of society, but the problem with that is there is no way to fund the security of a decentralized crypto-currency without debasement. Transaction fees are one of the big Achilles Heels of Bitcoin, because it incentivizes the capture of transactions by those who want to centralize control of mining (this is actually happening now but it is very subtle and hard to prove because 3 pools already control > 50% of mining).

After realizing this, I set out to try to figure out how to design crypto-currency in way that it couldn't be taxed and that would also naturally redistribute the money from the fatcats to the mining entrepreneurs in a competitive framework that rewarded innovation. And I realized that cpu-only would distribute the debasement to the most innovative.

This is because the home miners would mine at a loss and not know it, thus economies-of-scale for marginally lower electrical cost, e.g. in East Washington wouldn't make the datacenter mining very profitable. Rather it would incentivize innovative miners to locate high vertical head and flow stream microhydropower which is almost free energy. The fatcats would hate that, because it doesn't have high economies-of-scale. This is probably why many developed nations outlawed unlicensed moonshine (ethanol) and hemp cultivation. It actually takes individual brawn, search, and effort. As well, such a properly designed cpu-only proof-of-work would not gain economies-of-scale from Tilera CPUs and other ways of applying large capital to mining. Algorithmic check mate on fatcats.

Note one of the very important reasons that mining at a loss is still valuable is because it can be the way to convert fiat to coins without any third party involved, which is very powerful veto on corrupt exchanges and governments, e.g. it nullifies regulation and confiscation. It also makes the personal computer a form of autonomously issued cash, while the governments are trying to eliminate cash so they can track everything digitally.

Note that money isn't all the wealth, e.g. assets such as land are wealth, but as I pointed out above that debasement of all the wealth happens naturally if the power vacuum of democracy isn't allowed to stomp on entrepreneurs with taxation and regulation. Thus entrepreneurs gain relative wealth! And doing a crypto-currency correctly is a key factor in making that a potential reality. Unfortunately Bitcoin as designed can never do that. Bitcoin already lost its potential to change the world in that positive way, for example the mining is already centralized. The adoption pattern and future of Bitcoin is already set in stone.

So I hope I have explained to you why money should not be a store-of-value, and hinted to you how we can improve crypto-currency so that money isn't controlled by the fatcats and the destructive power vacuum of democracy.

Next you may want to hear about specific technological details. Some can be revealed now and others soon.


Note, my blog domain expired which I just renewed but there will be up to a 24 hours delay for the nameserves to propagate again so in the meantime use this link instead.


[1] A. Dragulescu and V. Yakovenko. Exponential and power-law probability distributions of wealth and income in the United Kingdom and the United States.

[2] Eric S. Raymond discussing Mancur Olson's The Logic Of Collective Action in Some Iron Laws of Political Economics.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
Rpietila, i´m still waitin for your paycheck for my last months work?
I would love to continue workin for you.
Please PM me, thanks.

Edit: I will no longer accept BTC as payment, USD only please.

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Suggestion. Can we keep the debate about scripture off thread? It adds absolutely nothing here. Everyone is free to have their own belief system. Indeed faith can't be falsified so it is not a very useful discussion to have in an analytical thread.

Btw, when I wrote "God doesn't give talents...", you can just insert "the universe" for "God". I was speaking about a falsifiable natural economic law.

Ill delete mine if you will delete yours.
hero member
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Moderator
Rpietila, i´m still waitin for your paycheck for my last months work?
I would love to continue workin for you.
Please PM me, thanks.

Edit: I will no longer accept BTC as payment, USD only please.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Note I am not saying Bitcoin isn't a performant nor uninteresting investment. If my crude fit of the log-logistic curve to the adoption data is correct, then price should be increasing at roughly 10X every 16 to 20 months from about now for next couple of years, with another bubble to push it temporary higher than that. After that rate of appreciation would noticeably slow again. Note I wrote "if" my theory and fit are correct. We really need someone to do some more empirical analysis of the data.

My goal is to mitigate the excessive "it is totally different this time" towards a more balanced view of Bitcoin's real strengths, weaknesses, and likely scenarios of the future.

I also agree with the comments that most $100+ millionaires are not technologically astute, are busy, have an ingrained inertia in their area of investment, etc.. New technologies have an adoption curve which is determined by the friction of these structural inertias. We can't change that adoption curve unless we fundamentally changed some aspect of Bitcoin that isn't already baked in (factored by speculation). Your evangelism is already factored in (so overdoing with hyperbole only causes the newbies to rush in too aggressively and we get extreme bubbles and crashes, but your hyperbole is already baked in also). As Risto noted, it takes perhaps 12-24 months after someone learns about Bitcoin to become an investor, and not everyone who learns about it becomes an investor.

The binary adoption curve of biotech startups (is an interesting point but) is not applicable to Bitcoin because Bitcoin isn't proceeding with binary outcome, as it is already a proven technology that is being adopted with a well demonstrated adoption curve for us to extrapolate on, while the ecosystem is also morphing with offchain infiltration (as factored already by the due diligence of the speculative investment adoption).

The proposed inverted pyramid may be accurate. Note gold is on the bottom of the Exter's inverted fiat pyramid, but that doesn't mean gold went "to the moon". As Risto pointed out, there are paper futures markets and others ways that gold is diluted in the fiat system. The same will happen to Bitcoin, because humans refuse to be controlled by some limited supply of money. Money is mostly a unit-of-exchange, not a store-of-value. Stores-of-value are incoming earning investments as Buffet has wisely noted many times. Bitcoin is undergoing a speculative investment phase wherein it is not really money and more like shares in an IPO startup. As it transitions to money, then it will become less of a store-of-value. It simply can't be any other way. Millionaires may not be smart enough to figure that out, but they are conditioned to know "it isn't different this time".

I will post again soon about the technical issues such as cpu-only, altcoins, offchain, etc..
sr. member
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neither past or future has objective existence. Our perception of such is a mental phenomena


sr. member
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i think millionnaires are buying bitcoin. they just do so by other channels than public exchanges and/or if they deal with the latest, they probably paid someone to sneak in at a greater profit, which could then explain such volatility: with weak hands actually selling their coins to huge whales/funds/banks/greedymillionaires without noticing it.

A few are buying without a doubt and probably doing so off exchanges. It's just that those few are probably a drop in the ocean..


Megariches (the elite) won't need to buy if they were the first miners (Satoshi Inc.). If they own all those generated and unspent bitcoins, they would be the only who have the annonimity that bitcoin does not offer to not miners.
full member
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Why can you see on bitcoinwisdoms 5min chart of bitstamp a big volume candle of 2k coins but on the 15min chart you can't see that volume candle?
sr. member
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All the fulfilled prophecy in Scripture is a pretty good evidence for that argument.  You just refuse to accept it.
are you talking religion now?

I thought maybe it was a joke.... hopefully?





Nope.  Not a joke.  I believe there is a single timeline, not infinite, and I'm explaining why.
sr. member
Activity: 378
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All the fulfilled prophecy in Scripture is a pretty good evidence for that argument.  You just refuse to accept it.

are you talking religion now?



Yes, but only as a proof as to why some people believe in a single timeline.  While we have free will, God sees the choices that we will (inevitably) make, since he knows all.  So while there are theoretically infinite timelines possible based on every choice by every creature, in reality there would only be one that will actually be chosen and God already knows what that will be.
legendary
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All the fulfilled prophecy in Scripture is a pretty good evidence for that argument.  You just refuse to accept it.
are you talking religion now?

I thought maybe it was a joke.... hopefully?



legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001

All the fulfilled prophecy in Scripture is a pretty good evidence for that argument.  You just refuse to accept it.

are you talking religion now?

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255

I not only believe there is only one possible future, but also that the whole existence has been "written" before being played. But from the human mind perspective that is shut-down in the space-time illusion, probabilities is the only way to make assessments, preparations, investments in relation with the future.

there is no evidence for that argument, and there is some pretty interesting evidence against that argument in the realm of quantum physics.

 - anything is possible. did you know that in the highest study of philosophy, even the validity mathematics is being debated.

All the fulfilled prophecy in Scripture is a pretty good evidence for that argument.  You just refuse to accept it.
legendary
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Quote from: Carlton Banks link=topic=400235.msg6057998#msg6057998
Your reasoning assumes a multi-millionaire in isolation.

Best strategy for the multi-millionaire is to use money and influence to buy at the lowest price (pay for multi-pronged trolling campaign across all bitcoin and non-bitcoin media would be a must...). These guys are pathologically driven, you don't become so wealthy and influential any other way.
Yup, it does seem like that would be an obvious strategy.  It wouldn't surprise me if it were happening right now.  Then again, there are plenty of trolls who troll for the fun of it, not because they're being paid.  So just because we see them doesn't prove anything. Smiley


It's true, first rule of troll club is never break persona and never admit hidden agenda.

I quite like having them around TBH, it's better to witness just what the best they can achieve is. The extent to which this forum gets trolls is arguably the best proof there is of bitcoin's value proposition.
full member
Activity: 236
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Your reasoning assumes a multi-millionaire in isolation.

Best strategy for the multi-millionaire is to use money and influence to buy at the lowest price (pay for multi-pronged trolling campaign across all bitcoin and non-bitcoin media would be a must...). These guys are pathologically driven, you don't become so wealthy and influential any other way.
Yup, it does seem like that would be an obvious strategy.  It wouldn't surprise me if it were happening right now.  Then again, there are plenty of trolls who troll for the fun of it, not because they're being paid.  So just because we see them doesn't prove anything. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2156
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Quote from: rpietila
Fact about Bitcoin
It does not matter, how much you paid for your bitcoins. It only matters, how many you have.

For this reason people, corporations and states who wait until "it grows bigger" are not acting smartly because they could buy the same amount for less now. Especially now, I mean this week.

This is what baffles me.  Waiting makes no logical sense at all.  Let's say I'm a big shot with $500 million to invest.  I can take 0.1% of that and buy BTC1000.  If bitcoin gets huge ($100k each), then I've increased my assets to $600 million (significant gain), and risked basically nothing.  And the reason I don't do this is, ostensibly, because it's small potatoes?  It makes no sense.  

Your reasoning assumes a multi-millionaire in isolation.

Best strategy for the multi-millionaire is to use money and influence to buy at the lowest price (pay for multi-pronged trolling campaign across all bitcoin and non-bitcoin media would be a must...). These guys are pathologically driven, you don't become so wealthy and influential any other way.


Most high multi-millionaires do not have an incentive to invest in high risk investment - which is exactly what BTC is right now. Why high risk your money, when you have privaleged opportunities to invest in low risk decent returns using traditional systems. If you have $100 million and can earn 10-15% (10-15 million per year) with virtually no risk investments, then why bother with bitcoin?

Most ultra-wealthy do not foresee or believe in a fiat collapse either. So there's no incentive there.

Yes, a few like the Winklevoss twins are the exception, but most ultra millionaires are too consumed with their businesses, travel and ventures to learn about or care about bitcoin right now.
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 3079
Fact about Bitcoin
It does not matter, how much you paid for your bitcoins. It only matters, how many you have.

For this reason people, corporations and states who wait until "it grows bigger" are not acting smartly because they could buy the same amount for less now. Especially now, I mean this week.

This is what baffles me.  Waiting makes no logical sense at all.  Let's say I'm a big shot with $500 million to invest.  I can take 0.1% of that and buy BTC1000.  If bitcoin gets huge ($100k each), then I've increased my assets to $600 million (significant gain), and risked basically nothing.  And the reason I don't do this is, ostensibly, because it's small potatoes?  It makes no sense.  

Your reasoning assumes a multi-millionaire in isolation.

Best strategy for the multi-millionaire is to use money and influence to buy at the lowest price (pay for multi-pronged trolling campaign across all bitcoin and non-bitcoin media would be a must...). These guys are pathologically driven, you don't become so wealthy and influential any other way.
full member
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Merit: 100
AnonyMint, is http://blog.cryptocurrencyconcepts.net/post/81016742800/the-new-pyramid what you refer to when you say,

2. The 21 million supply limit is a lie. This WILL be violated and there are numerous ways it can happen. The most likely way is Bitcoin is obviously moving towards offchain storage and services. In fact, Bitcoin can't have instant transactions without offchain fractional reserves (technically the exchange has to be fractional for it to happen instantly). Also the government could today regulate the few pools who have 51% and the few ASIC miners who have large datacenters, and produce as many coins per coinbase as they wanted. Later when the masses are all using government regulated offchain Coinbase.com and Bitpay.com, etc, then government can do what ever it wants to the mining and the masses won't care.

and

4. Altcoins will proliferate the # of coins in the ecosystem.
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