hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well
And an impossible one without breaking trust in both currencies. It is tremendously more likely to see the value of one of these coins shift into the other than for them to merge. In the short term that value will want to go into bitcoin. But in the long term, if XMR does not shift ALL its value in that direction the probability of the opposite shift rises continuously.
+1.
Bitcoin is the King of crypto, commanding 93% of the total marketcap. It's nice to be a king, but it has the downside that you can only be dethroned, never advance
Of course I believe that BTC has a great possibility to go up in purchasing power, even by a factor of 1,000 (after all it's my biggest holding, would not be if I did not think so
) but in terms of relative market share, it can only go down (or 7% up if all the other current and future cryptos are abandoned, which is unlikely).
The sway that Bitcoin holds in cryptosphere is so great that it is very difficult for an altcoin to gain traction. But if any of them does to a sufficient degree, I take it as a strong indication that the market is making a shift.
If any one of the altcoins gains a 20% share of the total cryptocoin marketcap, the value in Bitcoin will likely move to that coin. Caveats:
- No gimmicks. Short-term volatility is excluded. Sufficient trading volume.
- Marketcap must be calculated from the free-trading amount, leaving some room for total planned issuance (future mining) to be taken into account.
It does not take more than 10-25% of the value in Bitcoin to decide to migrate, to trash the Bitcoin remaining value, and make the value of the alt mushroom. For historical reference, Bitcoin marketcap went from about $1M to $200M in 2010-2011 in less than a year. During that period, only about $10M was invested into bitcoins. The rest was wealth effect. The same mechanism applied to the potential migration situation can make the contender quite valuable if only 2% of the wealth in Bitcoin decides to move (and inflict a proportional loss to the remaining bitcoin holdings).
I repeat in bold, because the issue is important:
Not every Bitcoin holder needs to sell all their bitcoins for the value to plummet and the alt to take over. It is enough that 10-25% do it, then the ones who migrated will gain the value (as appreciation of the new coin) which was stored in the 75-90% of bitcoins (whose value has plummeted), while the coins still belong to the bagholders. If this were not true, there would be no change in the world, and Bitcoin itself would never have had any traction whatsoever.I am not always correct, and even when I am, I tend to be ahead of the time. Don't sell your bitcoins, but make sure you have at least the same proportional amount of coins in every alt that has the slightest chance of making it. (It costs basically nothing but your bitcoin maximalism pride).
This is what I have done. And Monero is the only one I believe has the chance currently. I will tell when the situation changes.