Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 46. (Read 907231 times)

My 2 cents.

1.  Huge, gigantic probably lied about instamine.
2.  Too much fancy.  It will be exploited eventually IMO.

The best places to get Monero are Poloniex and ShapeShift.

Hi rpietila I don't know much about Monero but will consider getting some, I respect your opinions. Only thing held me back so far is cryptsy doesn't list it. Maybe this is off topic or something so apologies if so but I wondered what you think of Dash? Personally I  like it, although I know it is not NSA proof it does seem to bring a lot more anonymity than bitcoin for example. 

And an impossible one without breaking trust in both currencies.  It is tremendously more likely to see the value of one of these coins shift into the other than for them to merge.  In the short term that value will want to go into bitcoin.  But in the long term, if XMR does not shift ALL its value in that direction the probability of the opposite shift rises continuously.

I am not here to argue. I think it makes sense to buy XMR at this price. I don't think BTC is able to destroy it, everyone whom I know trusts ring sig anonymity more than the BTC plugin solutions, but it's up to everyone to make their choice (or hedge).

A lot of people know about Mt.Gox coins, but for reasons obvious, they do not publish their knowledge.

You seem to assume that there is a very low probability that Bitcoin will be suitable for anonymity needs, don't you think Sidechains and Darkwallet-type of implementation can destroy the potential Monero market?

Also, if BTC is so transparent, why nobody knows where the MtGox coins are?

The buyin price is of secondary importance. If you are now properly weighted, keep it. If you are overweight, sell some at a loss (remember to check that you get some tax credit and how many years it is valid) and buy something that has a negative total_loss_intercorrelation profile or a better upside (or both, such as crypto).


Only the current BTC people are in love for Bitcoin. But they/we number a few million at most. My experience from selling to cryptovirgins, is that Monero is even more easily grasped and accepted, with the following reasons:
- more early stage (people want to be early)
- no reputation of scams, hacks, drug dealing, Mt.Gox
- anonymous.

Of course Monero will get its share of scams and hacks when it grows larger, but the other points are very valid.

I don't go as far as to give a high or even decent probability for XMR overtaking BTC, but I am proud to be among the first of the elite bitcoiners to recognize it as a possibility. (I was also a world class silver theorist before - even wrote a book on silver - but have forsaken it because facts are facts: crypto is just better.) But to me, it's almost a given (25-50%) that XMR will end up being the 2nd most important coin in the next 1-2 years, and this alone makes the price appreciation against BTC quite likely.

As for plans, it is mostly boring stuff which I know is very important but does not personally interest me. I am very grateful that there is the large dev community taking care of it. The goal is just to maintain an uninfringeable global ledger of truly anonymous transactions, same as BTC's goal is to have transparent transactions.

Yes, I agree. I was cherry-picking, of course. Considering to look for a better buy-in strategy. Seems to me some sort of averaging strategy could beat all-in. I know this has been discussed before and it's a moot point until checked against the data, of course.

btw: I found myself unable to hold back on buying during almost all of this bear episode of bitcoin. I'm basically dollar-cost-average buying all the time, maybe even increasing fiat-value of the buys as we go lower.

The thoughts behind your savings plan have helped me on another front, though: I had been accumulating some Auroracoin over the last year of so (I still love that experiment and I'm really happy it looks like it's going to continue) and during the recent hype and price-hike in AUR_BTC (The last airdrop had ended and Baldur Odinson had burned the premine left over from the airdrops) I managed to get myself to ignore the greed and sell into the strength (first regretting it of course, but now - as we experience a slump - being quite content because I also sold the top and I was always "safe" against the hype ending).

So: thanks for the simple savings plan, it's been good for me

Who was it that recently said that when bitcoin started, there was a lot of rampant price speculation and libertarian themes, but people were predominantly excited about the technology?  
  
The technology has to be exciting and innovative (and uniquely first to establish first-to-market-dominance) or else people will just move on to the next flash in the pan.  
  
There were arguably better bitcoins released in the years after bitcoin, but when you are dealing with an asset where group belief trumps all, it is crucial to be the first.  There is no metric that gives greater weight than that.  
  
I feel some guilt about being a rampant speculator, but less knowing that the entire ascent of a cryptocurrency relies on greedy speculators at the first stage of launch.  It needs to progress to other groups as well, but it's the greed that fuels the rise in price + development to the point where it can fulfill other purposes.  
 
Also, as the Monero website said: if you are buying this, plan to be extraordinarily wealthy one day, and commit to being the type of person who will use that wealth to do something positive with the world, instead of building a metaphoric effigy to your own ego.  
  
There really isn't anything else like Monero in the crypto world, and if you look at all the pieces, Monero may arguably be intended by powers way above you & I to be the true "bitcoin 2.0".... though once enough faith is established in bitcoin, I don't see that ledger being overthrown.  
 
If Monero and Bitcoin (in a theoretical 2025 scenario) both shared dominance, and it was admitted that Monero clearly had better technology, would it be possible to do a one time hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well, changing the amount of "Monero" from 18 million-ish to about 40 million-ish?  
  
An interesting fantasy scenario.
  

I was an idiot and bought a lot of silver at $30. Being $17 right now I am obviously a bit annoyed.

What makes you think people will use Monero rather than BTC in the future? What plans are in the pipeline for Monero?

I am only asking as I don't know anything about XMR.

Thanks

Yeah, you can always cherrypick. If you take the whole price history, and compare buying in immediately to any other buyin strategy, it's hard to find one that yields a better result, even if we didn't take the resources spent in forming and executing the strategy into account. SSS is a simple, passive strategy, suitable for long-term high variance +EV investments, done with small-to-moderate % of your portfolio. It's not intended for dealers, traders, gamblers or the like.

I can only think with my own brains, and yes - I am telling you that the more I think, the more bullish I am on XMR, and at some point this will mean a relative bearishness even towards BTC.

I still own all the silver I had when I was a silverbug. But I am not really thinking that silver will make me a billionaire (not that I cared so much of that literally, but let's use it as a buzzword).

I still own about the same BTC that I ever had, the conversion to Malla Bitcoin Castle and buying some XMR did not make an appreciable dent.

So, despite that the number of XMR is less than that of BTC, you can buy them for 1/500 of the price. You don't need to sell your silver, you don't need to sell your BTC, the only thing you need to do is to buy some XMR.

The whole time I've been monitoring altcoins (about 2 years) I haven't found anything else worth buying.

XMR does everything that BTC does. Its development is even more active (by number of github commits), I like the community better, the CN technology (ring signatures) makes it anonymous in a way that Bitcoin can never be, my friends accept is as readily as bitcoin, it can be acquired with bitcoins from Poloniex (or converted back) with 5 minutes email-only registration, it has mymonero.org wallet, as easy as blockchain.info, ...

In a word, it's exactly where Bitcoin was in 2010 when I missed the train. I'm not going to miss this one, I lay back and let it play out 

This only makes sense if the bottom is in. Otherwise it's a contradiction, no? Maybe like a year ago, we think it's a nice discount now, but it really isn't?

EDIT: this is what your SSS post says about buying:


So someone reading that in Nov '13 (when you made the post) would've bought in right away and be 80% in the red now, still waiting for $2000.


I applaud and look forward.

Did I read this correctly? XMR Could potentially increase as Bitcoin has done?

The long periods of decline, such as the one we are experiencing, are much easier to weather when you do it according to the SSS plan.

If I had literally followed my plan, instead of buying back at a nice discount a year ago, the situation would be even better. So folks, do what I say, not what I do Load up on bitcoins (and monero) now as the scenario universe is heavily tilted on your favor, and be strict in selling on strength when it comes, and don't buy back in the subsequent slump (and of course, never ever sell on a loss).

BTC2 buys you 1,000 XMR. BTC20 buys you 10,000 XMR. I have a very strong feeling that doing it is equivalent to having bought 1,000 or 10,000 BTC when it was available for the same price (around Dec-10 to Jan-11). Hedging and risk managementwise it is the right thing to do. SSS applies to them as well, although I would advise to start selling only after a significant runup.

I am involved in a new website that will distill my writings here to coherent articles. Launch is expected next month.

I note that the Sane and Simple Bitcoin Savings Plan is about to reach 50,000 views, which is great for a thread that is only 10 pages and most people probably just read the OP (other threads have more reads, but probably not of the OP). That's a whole lot of hodlers who have potentially learned how to hold their coins more tightly by avoiding slop factors in portfolio management. I wonder how much that thread alone has contributed to the price. I've linked it quite a few times myself in various places on the net, and will continue to do so.

Well, my portfolio does not evolve too quickly. From 2006 to early 2013 it was mainly silver. Then it was mainly bitcoin. And still is, but my interest has changed to monero.

It feels almost as if many people in Bitcoin are sitting upon their golden egg, waiting for it to fulfill all their wishes. Yes, there is the likelihood that it will, but it does not become any less likely if they also bought some moneros.

I was quicker to realize the potential of Monero as I had quite recently needed to forsake my first love, silver, for Bitcoin. The people who first fell in love with Bitcoin may have to suffer a hit in exchange rate if they refuse to "look after other women", just as I did by not switching my bulk holdings in late 2010 when you could have had 100 BTC for 1 ounce of silver, rather in 2013 when 1 ounce bought 0.2 BTC 

I haven't seen the compelling investment case in 2.0-coins, although I regard them as interesting projects.

Bitcoin, monero, and what else? 
 
Is that the only things in rpietila's portfolio?  Or did Maidsafe or another alt make it in there too?

Wow, the conversation is slow indeed...

Thanks for reply. Good observation; I was also thinking that it's useless to accuse me of doing no BTC research, if the public interest towards producing such is zero. Thanks for that as well

As for the point, govcoins do not replace bitcoin in anyone's mind who is clear on the main subject, that of the difference between trusted (fiat) and trustless (commodity). Despite using the same technology, govcoin is fiat and BTC is commodity. A dollar bill is fiat while toilet paper is commodity. Yet both are paper.

The government is increasing the pie for outlaw coins by their own lawless actions. These outlaw coins should not be public blockchain, though.