Apologies if I killed everyone's jovial mood. Any way, I come back to cross-post some relevant discussion on the timing (which applies to Bitcoin price discussion in this thread).
...Take this recent interview by Allen Greenspan.
QE lowering the real rate of interest "has been responsible for the rise in P/E multiples... when rates normalize, that will reverse"
Armstrong has refuted that with historical examples where stocks rise when interest rates rise in the similar circumstances. Greenspan is not factoring in international capital flows, and the dollar and USA will be the only safe haven still standing in 2016 because Europe will collapse roughly 18 months before the USA will[1], and thus we will get a
huge bubble in the US stocks peaking in 2017 some where near 40,000 for the Dow (DJIA).
Greenspan will end up being correct after 2017, when international capital flows into the USA peak and turn. Where do the capital flows go after 2017? Gold, cryptocurrencies, and much of wiped out by sovereign defaults and expropriation. In short, chaos, war, and scorched earth.
If a crisis happens as he predicts in Semptember-October of 2015 (which I believe is very possible) I will attach even more weight to his predictions.
Among other notable events for the end of September 2015, are:
1. In one of those audio discussions with WA D.C. insider Hugh Downs, Hugh reminded Armstrong that the funding bill for the US government expires near that 2015.75 turn date.
2. The extension of the funding for Greece expires near that 2015.75 turn date.
What I am expecting based on Armstrong's writings is that October 2015 is when confidence in Europe's sovereign bonds starts to collapse and Draghi's QE no longer is effective in maintaining investor confidence. When investors stop believing that the core of Europe is a safe haven, they will stampede to the dollar. This process is underway on the periphery but the German DAX is still rising (which Armstrong expects to reach a bubble peak and crash on 2015.75) and German bonds are still falling (as well other core European nation sovereign bonds such as the Netherlands). October 2015 is when the lights go out on the core of Europe.
This will cause the Fed in the USA to begin to raise interest rates to counter what it sees as a huge bubble (and the opportunity to unwind the Fed's bloated QE balance sheet). This will cause the influx of the safe haven capital into the dollar to further accelerate. But this will also be killing the USA economy because USA exports will be overpriced and consumers+homeowners will be getting killed on the rising interest rates.
So then the economy will become very bad in the USA in 2016 in spite of the rising dollar and US stocks. Then in 2017, we go F.U.B.A.R. scorched earth.
I place 95% odds on this timing and outcome.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/25/so-what-was-the-ecm-september-2014-turning-point/When most everyone says it is dead, only a few diehards remain, that will be the bottom in the price and we will rise again from there.
It is a positive sign that some people are starting to think it is dead. Unfortunately there are still too many idealistic fanboys who think it is not dead (they provide the wrong reasons for justification, e.g.
decentralized consensus is a joke and a lie) and they need to lose their money first buying BTC at these nosebleed levels.
Bitcoin will never die, it was declared dead more times than George Bush was called stupid.
You need to differentiate bitcoin, and bitcoin price, because you obviously got confused between the two, but regardless, i can assure you that both of the two are live and ticking,
and will continue to do so for a long, long time (..and they made bitcoin transactions happily ever after-
That long)
cheers
This is it above, how many times has bitcoin been declared dead on this forum...
Both of you need to learn how to read. I did not write that Bitcoin is dead. In fact, I wrote that it will bottom when most idealistic fanboys think it is dead. Then it will rise with new focus that is more realistic. Again the decentralized consensus idealism is not true. The OP explained for example that mining is not decentralized.
When most everyone says it is dead, only a few diehards remain, that will be the bottom in the price and we will rise again from there.
It is a positive sign that some people are starting to think it is dead. Unfortunately there are still too many idealistic fanboys who think it is not dead (they provide the wrong reasons for justification, e.g.
decentralized consensus is a joke and a lie) and they need to lose their money first buying BTC at these nosebleed levels.
So your theory is that after very few people are left using/hoarding bitcoin, suddenly bitcoin will become relevant again?
The timing of the old false idealism dying and some new realism taking form seem to be roughly aligned for no particular reason other than they are. It's just time.
Well actually there is a reason they are aligned. And you refer to the links I posted in my first post in this thread. And to this one as well:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10687107As for the technical and market adoption realism coming to Bitcoin, please refer to one of those prior links I provided wherein I stated that the only two markets for Bitcoin are "speculation" and "nefarious" activities. I provided a detailed explanation there.
Some quite weak movements north lately. Unless we breach 270-275 on volume pretty soon I maintain my position: down to 190 within the next few weeks. 