rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 59.

BldSwtTrs

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Quote from: riiiiising on January 20, 2015, 12:35:44 PM

Quote from: myworkaccount on January 20, 2015, 12:20:21 PM

Quote from: Warren Buffert on January 20, 2015, 12:15:38 PM

Oh, so the imaginary value

EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.

That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.

EV calculations don't solely involved accurate measures of the various parameters. You often have to put some subjective bayesian inferences in the mix, especially while playing poker.

For example you dont know the other player's hand, you have to give him a hand range, and you adjust the probability of him having a given hand based chiefly on bayesian inferences.

BldSwtTrs

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Quote from: mmitech on January 20, 2015, 11:11:47 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 20, 2015, 05:35:58 AM

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

Price is not the same as value. Bitcoin's value is juge, bitcoin's price is temporary depleted.

riiiiising

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Quote from: myworkaccount on January 20, 2015, 12:20:21 PM

Quote from: Warren Buffert on January 20, 2015, 12:15:38 PM

Oh, so the imaginary value

EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.

That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.

myworkaccount

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Quote from: Warren Buffert on January 20, 2015, 12:15:38 PM

Oh, so the imaginary value

EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

Warren Buffert

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Quote from: myworkaccount on January 20, 2015, 12:12:25 PM

Quote from: mmitech on January 20, 2015, 11:11:47 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 20, 2015, 05:35:58 AM

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions (expected value)

Oh, so the imaginary value

EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

myworkaccount

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Quote from: mmitech on January 20, 2015, 11:11:47 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 20, 2015, 05:35:58 AM

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions (expected value)

mmitech

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things you own end up owning you

Quote from: rpietila on January 20, 2015, 05:35:58 AM

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

smooth

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Quote from: rpietila on January 20, 2015, 05:35:58 AM

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Reminds me of Bitcoin Island

farfiman

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Quote from: sgbett on January 20, 2015, 04:13:24 AM

I know have an overwhelming urge to buy this t-shirt!

"Sorry, this product is sold out and will not be restocked. Feel free to rage quietly, or buy some other cool products."

rpietila

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A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

sgbett

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I know have an overwhelming urge to buy this t-shirt!

Spjuth

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on January 16, 2015, 02:16:40 AM

I'm afraid that the next bull market will not begin until after we capitulate. This bear market is like a living breathing thing hell bent on getting me to fold and will not stop until I do. It's like it's after me personally.

The hardest part to deal with is that it's my fault. If I had sold more near the top, I could have used the capital to generate additional income so that I could easily and happily be buying more now, not caring if the price goes up or down.

I tell myself that if I survive this bear market I will do it better next time, but that is a big "IF". Now I'm faced with scrounging for additional income in an oil services town with oil prices crashing and everyone getting laid off.

Hard times make some people tougher and other people corpses, but if I'm going down, I'm going down swinging.

When in hard times, remember your own words. "I don't care about the busts. I am riding this pig wherever it takes me. If it tanks, I'll have a helluva story to tell. I'm sick of half measures. I'm swinging for the fences and If I strike out, so be it. I won't be some mediocre drone living a life of quiet desperation. I believe in bitcoin and I'm going for broke, knowing the risks. "

I live by them, so should you. That post has ment more to me than anything else. When people have told me that I'm an idiot that don't sell, I tell them "I'm riding this pig wherever it takes me."

I thank you for those words and the inspiration it has given me. It has kept me calm during the last three and a half years and have been my own motto in hard times like now.

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

i like to look at old prediction posts and see how they came up. I like this one.

btw the original post for the cross posted thread here did say dont expect 5k for another 3-4 years. which i agree with. i always thought if it hit $1000+ by 2015 it could reach $5000 by 2020.

Quote from: Arghhh on May 25, 2014, 12:54:10 AM

DanV: Former Qualified Financial Adviser. Part-Time Forex, Equities & Option Trader and Mentor.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/DanV/

"This pattern could have a final leg down, which would very likely induce overwhelming emotions of despair as it sinks to the ~$200 level.

Again, the $200 zone is AB=CD measured move target and another Fib confluence. As you all know, I am relatively cautious and, hence, $200 would be good enough for me. However, EW guidelines suggest that upon completion of a bullish cycle, the retracement takes us back to the vicinity of wave 4 (at one cycle degree lower). That, in fact, is in the area of $120!

Now, I know this might be very annoying and incomprehensible to Bulls, and others who follow "Fundamentals" very keenly. I cannot say right now which of these targets will be achieved, but it is sufficient to note that, irrespective of if we reverse at $600 (or even $800), we are in a bearish cycle, and a move of the low does not support a new Bullish cycle." -DanV

Another institutional analyst falls victim to the bitcoin badger.
Anyone who listened to DanV, got burnt. Badly.

rpietila

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Quote

Altcoins illiquid Huh

Some altcoins may be reasonably liquid if you exchange tiny amounts only. Even $1000 is a big sum for many alts, resulting in slippage.

In other transfers, such as gold, everything below 1 oz (~$1500) incurs extra cost, with 1 oz coins the commission is 1.5-2%, and does not change no matter how large deals you want.

Real estate is both non-fungible, and expensive to trade commissionwise. It is obviously not the component in your portfolio that is fire-sold in the Scenario A Wink

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: CCInvestor on January 17, 2015, 07:39:27 PM

Quote from: prophetx on January 17, 2015, 10:14:08 AM

the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

Altcoins illiquid Huh

Last I checked I can liquidate altcoins with a click of a mouse, real estate however is either selling for heavy discount or waiting half a year and let's not speak of all the talking, travelling, meeting and administration.

The only useless altcoins are those that look most like bitcoin, many however innovate and some are already a lot more useful than bitcoin.

NXT for example allows you to not only save your money better thanks to no inflation, and save it with more certainty thanks to being 1000 times better secured against a 51% attack, but also pay people quicker thanks to 10 times faster secure validations, allows you to also message other accounts fully encrypted, launch or buy assets, sell or buy goods and services, and now even launch your own crypto.

first of all I said "some".

please if you own say 20% of all Mastercoins, good luck with that "click of a mouse" liquidation plan.

NXT is down like what 80% or more from it's high... that's a great savings plan.

Please, I don't mean to offend, but try, please try to use logic when evaluating whether to share a statement with others.

have a nice day

rpietila

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I don't want to keep you, friends, in the darkness concerning the plans on the castle.

- It will be sold if and only if Bitcoin goes low enough that there is no demand for the conference services (even the richest bitcoiners not being interested in coming there).
- If it is sold, the price of bitcoin will have declined so low, that I make a great profit measured in bitcoins regardless of the fiat price.
- Therefore, the fiat price is so low (could be even half of my purchase price, ie. less than what my parkside city apartment in Helsinki downtown is fetching) that it's possible to sell quick.

BlindMayorBitcorn

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Quote from: Cassandra_PR on January 18, 2015, 10:55:29 AM

Quote from: prophetx on January 17, 2015, 10:14:08 AM

[]
the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

It's not so much real estate being illiquid, but properties like "the castle" (a huge derelict building in the middle of nowhere) being illiquid. It's a white elephant, and requires a very specific and rare buyer. It's sort of like trying to sell an old 707 - a spectacular thing, would cost billions to reproduce, but good luck finding a buyer.

Only in Bitcoinland Grin

Cassandra_PR

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Quote from: prophetx on January 17, 2015, 10:14:08 AM

[]
the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

It's not so much real estate being illiquid, but properties like "the castle" (a huge derelict building in the middle of nowhere) being illiquid. It's a white elephant, and requires a very specific and rare buyer. It's sort of like trying to sell an old 707 - a spectacular thing, would cost billions to reproduce, but good luck finding a buyer.

CCInvestor

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bump

CCInvestor

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Quote from: prophetx on January 17, 2015, 10:14:08 AM

the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

Altcoins illiquid Huh

Last I checked I can liquidate altcoins with a click of a mouse, real estate however is either selling for heavy discount or waiting half a year and let's not speak of all the talking, travelling, meeting and administration.

The only useless altcoins are those that look most like bitcoin, many however innovate and some are already a lot more useful than bitcoin.

NXT for example allows you to not only save your money better thanks to no inflation, and save it with more certainty thanks to being 1000 times better secured against a 51% attack, but also pay people quicker thanks to 10 times faster secure validations, allows you to also message other accounts fully encrypted, launch or buy assets, sell or buy goods and services, and now even launch your own crypto.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 59. (Read 907248 times)