Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 62. (Read 907231 times)
I'm not calling for 100's, just that there is only fibo and trend line supports between here and there Both of which are from this recent declining price action, so there is very little in the way of support.
I like your summary, however, I think that $205 has massive support because that is where the whole $1150 move sprang from. The 3-day chart shows it well.
Not sure I would as far as to say massive, but I see what you are referring to, thanks. There was a little resting point for a couple of days with some moderate volume before the bulk of the rise. That could be a decent support and could even hold my $210-220 target as a good entry. Time will tell.
Ha. We did not account for the sheer power of lemming brains when the cliff gets near.
It went quick too. I expected at least a decent bounce at 200ish. Round number, moderate volume support, stamp put up a fight for a little while, but couldn't hold it off once that larger ask came pounding through.
But on the other note, $100's are indeed possible so don't underestimate market forces
I'm not calling for 100's, just that there is only fibo and trend line supports between here and there Both of which are from this recent declining price action, so there is very little in the way of support.
I like your summary, however, I think that $205 has massive support because that is where the whole $1150 move sprang from. The 3-day chart shows it well.
Not sure I would as far as to say massive, but I see what you are referring to, thanks. There was a little resting point for a couple of days with some moderate volume before the bulk of the rise. That could be a decent support and could even hold my $210-220 target as a good entry. Time will tell.
Ha. We did not account for the sheer power of lemming brains when the cliff gets near.
I'm not calling for 100's, just that there is only fibo and trend line supports between here and there Both of which are from this recent declining price action, so there is very little in the way of support.
I like your summary, however, I think that $205 has massive support because that is where the whole $1150 move sprang from. The 3-day chart shows it well.
Not sure I would as far as to say massive, but I see what you are referring to, thanks. There was a little resting point for a couple of days with some moderate volume before the bulk of the rise. That could be a decent support and could even hold my $210-220 target as a good entry. Time will tell.
I'm not calling for 100's, just that there is only fibo and trend line supports between here and there Both of which are from this recent declining price action, so there is very little in the way of support.
I like your summary, however, I think that $205 has massive support because that is where the whole $1150 move sprang from. The 3-day chart shows it well.
... At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.
Bitcoin... "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing" Bitcoin over does it in both directions. From bubbles to crashes. This market is so full of inexperience that the panic in both directions is what does it. I don't necessarily think the price over-corrected as much as the time it took. This is a reasonable (from a technical standpoint) level to expect the correction to fall to. The time however, at least combined with the price decline is a bit excessive. Had we fallen to these prices in a more impulsive manner when we saw $339 or even $275, then I would have been satisfied with that. But the reluctance to take even a little profit by so many due to FOMO is what just prolonged the inevitable (I say inevitable because to me, this is what should have been expected). This is what I expected since we had that rally in May last year. The time it took however, is un-bear-able.
So I guess you're bullish once we touched ~$210 (as a bottom) right?
$210? where does that come from? My original preliminary bottom was around $210-220, but I'll have to see how it's looking when that time comes. As with that chart of supports I posted the other day, we could see the 100's, so I'm not making any calls yet.
I'm looking for a nice bounce here, but there just might not be enough buyers right now.
100's???
You don't think you're getting a bit greedy there?
I'm not calling for 100's, just that there is only fibo and trend line supports between here and there Both of which are from this recent declining price action, so there is very little in the way of support.
... At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.
Bitcoin... "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing" Bitcoin over does it in both directions. From bubbles to crashes. This market is so full of inexperience that the panic in both directions is what does it. I don't necessarily think the price over-corrected as much as the time it took. This is a reasonable (from a technical standpoint) level to expect the correction to fall to. The time however, at least combined with the price decline is a bit excessive. Had we fallen to these prices in a more impulsive manner when we saw $339 or even $275, then I would have been satisfied with that. But the reluctance to take even a little profit by so many due to FOMO is what just prolonged the inevitable (I say inevitable because to me, this is what should have been expected). This is what I expected since we had that rally in May last year. The time it took however, is un-bear-able.
So I guess you're bullish once we touched ~$210 (as a bottom) right?
$210? where does that come from? My original preliminary bottom was around $210-220, but I'll have to see how it's looking when that time comes. As with that chart of supports I posted the other day, we could see the 100's, so I'm not making any calls yet.
I'm looking for a nice bounce here, but there just might not be enough buyers right now.
100's???
You don't think you're getting a bit greedy there?
... At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.
Bitcoin... "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing" Bitcoin over does it in both directions. From bubbles to crashes. This market is so full of inexperience that the panic in both directions is what does it. I don't necessarily think the price over-corrected as much as the time it took. This is a reasonable (from a technical standpoint) level to expect the correction to fall to. The time however, at least combined with the price decline is a bit excessive. Had we fallen to these prices in a more impulsive manner when we saw $339 or even $275, then I would have been satisfied with that. But the reluctance to take even a little profit by so many due to FOMO is what just prolonged the inevitable (I say inevitable because to me, this is what should have been expected). This is what I expected since we had that rally in May last year. The time it took however, is un-bear-able.
So I guess you're bullish once we touched ~$210 (as a bottom) right?
$210? where does that come from? My original preliminary bottom was around $210-220, but I'll have to see how it's looking when that time comes. As with that chart of supports I posted the other day, we could see the 100's, so I'm not making any calls yet.
I'm looking for a nice bounce here, but there just might not be enough buyers right now.
... At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.
Bitcoin... "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing" Bitcoin over does it in both directions. From bubbles to crashes. This market is so full of inexperience that the panic in both directions is what does it. I don't necessarily think the price over-corrected as much as the time it took. This is a reasonable (from a technical standpoint) level to expect the correction to fall to. The time however, at least combined with the price decline is a bit excessive. Had we fallen to these prices in a more impulsive manner when we saw $339 or even $275, then I would have been satisfied with that. But the reluctance to take even a little profit by so many due to FOMO is what just prolonged the inevitable (I say inevitable because to me, this is what should have been expected). This is what I expected since we had that rally in May last year. The time it took however, is un-bear-able.
So I guess you're bullish once we touched ~$210 (as a bottom) right?
... At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.
Bitcoin... "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing" Bitcoin over does it in both directions. From bubbles to crashes. This market is so full of inexperience that the panic in both directions is what does it. I don't necessarily think the price over-corrected as much as the time it took. This is a reasonable (from a technical standpoint) level to expect the correction to fall to. The time however, at least combined with the price decline is a bit excessive. Had we fallen to these prices in a more impulsive manner when we saw $339 or even $275, then I would have been satisfied with that. But the reluctance to take even a little profit by so many due to FOMO is what just prolonged the inevitable (I say inevitable because to me, this is what should have been expected). This is what I expected since we had that rally in May last year. The time it took however, is un-bear-able.
The problem with trendlines in a thin market is whales can ignore them and change the trend at will.
Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?
I would be interested to know this as well. Risto, are you a buyer at this level, or would you be if you had more funds to invest?
Btw, it's your thread so ignoring the detractors I think you have the right to give your opinion on price levels and investing strategy, whether you get it right or not (because no one truly knows 100% what the market will do). I have always appreciated your insight on the market, one of the few in this subforum. At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.
Hopefully a troll won't come in here and try to squash this exchange.
I agree with this line of questioning.
Even if Risto may consider bitcoin price trendline in a mathematical way, this ongoing bear market and downtrend must have shifted the trendline downward, even if considering the matter mathematically.
Nobody seems to want to explain why transactions is growing too.
Ah, as was the case already with the tx growth in 2012, and further in 2013, don't you know it's all FAKE! It was fake then, and it is increasingly more fake now, and in 2015 it will be even more fake. That is the only likely and true explanation, and the only conclusion is to go short on BTC now.
I mean did you think about mixers and all the other technology that literally just makes more btc wallets at the push of a button???
I used to use one wallet... now I use a different one everyday... everytime I send funds into the exchange I get a different wallet address from them too.
So imagine is even 10% of people do what I do... I'm sure a bigger percentage does a lot more as well.
I'm still a buyer, at this level a pop is on the way sooner than you think!
Do you mean a different address every day or a different wallet? I believe those are two different things.
Trendline update as of today.
0,002985x - 2,851666
R^2 = 0,935623
Picture is telling the important thing.
In Red, USD/BTC log chart since the beginning (this is a 2050 day chart), with 0 showing $1 and every level is 10x as high as the previous one.
In Blue, the daily deviation from the then-current exponential trendline. (The first trendline calculated is from April-2011 however).
Very crude but shows, among others, that:
- The latest dip from 570 to 510 in Bitcoin price is so insignificant that it can hardly be seen, even though this is a daily chart and not a weekly vwap (same goes for Silkroad flashcrash in 2013-10-3 btw);
- We are currently at -0.56 below the trend, so it is very low;
- We were this low in 2012-5-21; 7-8 months before the uptrend of 2013 started, so it is not a given that we will see an uptrend soon this time either, even if the history was to predict the future;
- However, the lowest price ever seen after 2012-5-21 was only $0.02 lower than the price in 2012-5-21, based on this, the downside from here on is extremely limited.
0,002985x - 2,851666
R^2 = 0,935623
Picture is telling the important thing.
In Red, USD/BTC log chart since the beginning (this is a 2050 day chart), with 0 showing $1 and every level is 10x as high as the previous one.
In Blue, the daily deviation from the then-current exponential trendline. (The first trendline calculated is from April-2011 however).
Very crude but shows, among others, that:
- The latest dip from 570 to 510 in Bitcoin price is so insignificant that it can hardly be seen, even though this is a daily chart and not a weekly vwap (same goes for Silkroad flashcrash in 2013-10-3 btw);
- We are currently at -0.56 below the trend, so it is very low;
- We were this low in 2012-5-21; 7-8 months before the uptrend of 2013 started, so it is not a given that we will see an uptrend soon this time either, even if the history was to predict the future;
- However, the lowest price ever seen after 2012-5-21 was only $0.02 lower than the price in 2012-5-21, based on this, the downside from here on is extremely limited.
Extremely limited, oh? Please rpietila, provide us with more of your wise insights. By the way, why won't you update your monthly trend line anymore?
Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?
I would be interested to know this as well. Risto, are you a buyer at this level, or would you be if you had more funds to invest?
Btw, it's your thread so ignoring the detractors I think you have the right to give your opinion on price levels and investing strategy, whether you get it right or not (because no one truly knows 100% what the market will do). I have always appreciated your insight on the market, one of the few in this subforum. At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.
Hopefully a troll won't come in here and try to squash this exchange.
Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?
Let me guess, he "calls the bottom" like last time?lol
Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?
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ITT: Pied Piper disguises self as Moses; abandons rats as the Red Sea drowns the vermin; onlookers point and laugh.
What about the 2.5BTC, did Risto delivered his word?
The problem is not the paying, we already agreed that the condition for the bounty was fulfilled. The issue now is that the account we promised to pay the bounty is no longer in use, and that the means to determine if "contagion" = "TheFascistMind" = "AnonyMint" are limited. To make it sure, I would like the person himself contact me with some of the channels we used in contact prior to Bitcointalk existed. The real AnonyMint is easily able to do so. That will ensure that there is no congame and the money goes to the right person.
If this does not happen, and there is no credible reason why the contact cannot be established, we have to conclude that "TheFascistMind" was not the same person as "AnonyMint", and claiming to be so when it is not true, is a serious enough wrongdoing that the bounty is withheld.
On the other hand, the real AnonyMint is a very conscientious person and he may at his whim even refuse the bounty. I know him from many years and appreciate him greatly for this and other reasons.
Really liked the new contagion/anonymint posts. 
What about the 2.5BTC, did Risto delivered his word?
What about the 2.5BTC, did Risto delivered his word?
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