Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 91. (Read 907229 times)
New all-time-high in number of bitcoin adresses (177 000, one week averages)
Hmmm. Just now a sell order of several hundred bitcoin at market has pushed the price down below the ask wall, which has moved above my order book horizon on Bitcoin Wisdom. The last value I recall was in the 15000+ range.
... eating popcorn - which is entertainment food here in the USA.
[update, the wall has been reduced to 15757 and is joined by a smaller wall 694 @ 298 - And that smaller one is bought in one order as I write!]
... eating popcorn - which is entertainment food here in the USA.
[update, the wall has been reduced to 15757 and is joined by a smaller wall 694 @ 298 - And that smaller one is bought in one order as I write!]
It is interesting to see that over the past 3 hours during which time the 300 sell wall has been standing firm, the prices on okcoin, btce, bfx, lakebtc have climbed steadily from ~305 to ~312. Which must mean that there is buying pressure on the other exchanges, but the arbitrage channels are being gradually worn down. Very interesting experiment!
And it begs the question: Why sell all 30k on stamp?
And it begs the question: Why sell all 30k on stamp?
From what I see, and from what others have commented on this thread and others, the trading behavior is unprofessional. Namely, that professional order-execution traders would have gained more revenue for the seller.
The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.
Presumably this is the same trader who was putting up and taking down 30k sell walls on stamp, starting about 12 hours-ish ago.
Possibly the trader believes that $300 is a price milestone that will attract sufficient buyers to move the entire lot with no slippage.
One might argue that a better strategy would have been to randomly sell much smaller lots in the preceding weeks. But who knows the motivation and its urgency?
Every order on Bitstamp for the last two minutes has been a purchase. The wall has been nibbled down to 16908 BTC. Huboi reports $312.77 on Bitcoin Wisdom, so maybe arbitrage is happening too.
It is interesting to see that over the past 3 hours during which time the 300 sell wall has been standing firm, the prices on okcoin, btce, bfx, lakebtc have climbed steadily from ~305 to ~312. Which must mean that there is buying pressure on the other exchanges, but the arbitrage channels are being gradually worn down. Very interesting experiment!
And it begs the question: Why sell all 30k on stamp?
According to the volume chart, the $300 ask wall on Bitstamp is being devoured at the rate of about 1000 BTC every 30 minutes.
I would be pleasantly surprised if there is any left to buy when my local ATM opens for business.
I would be pleasantly surprised if there is any left to buy when my local ATM opens for business.
I think it is a hoarder who got sick and tired of seeing the price decline all year, and has finally thrown in the towel, but at the worst possible moment, when the curve on the daily chart has gone vertically down.
I've wondered whether the Oct 15 deadline for US income tax might be playing a role. Someone who needed to sell bitcoin to pay 2013 income taxes may have taken the 6-month extension, thinking / hoping that the next bubble would have at least started by now.
So in the interest of declaring tax he held on to his btc and now is selling at a loss most likely?
The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.
Presumably this is the same trader who was putting up and taking down 30k sell walls on stamp, starting about 12 hours-ish ago.
Possibly the trader believes that $300 is a price milestone that will attract sufficient buyers to move the entire lot with no slippage.
One might argue that a better strategy would have been to randomly sell much smaller lots in the preceding weeks. But who knows the motivation and its urgency?
Every order on Bitstamp for the last two minutes has been a purchase. The wall has been nibbled down to 16908 BTC. Huboi reports $312.77 on Bitcoin Wisdom, so maybe arbitrage is happening too.
I think it is a hoarder who got sick and tired of seeing the price decline all year, and has finally thrown in the towel, but at the worst possible moment, when the curve on the daily chart has gone vertically down.
I've wondered whether the Oct 15 deadline for US income tax might be playing a role. Someone who needed to sell bitcoin to pay 2013 income taxes may have taken the 6-month extension, thinking / hoping that the next bubble would have at least started by now.
The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.
Presumably this is the same trader who was putting up and taking down 30k sell walls on stamp, starting about 12 hours-ish ago.
Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.
A 1200 chuck was bought just moments ago. The cost of arbitrage allows the Chinese exchanges to be somewhat higher than Bitstamp. The price is flat because there is no one willing to sell lower at these remarkably low prices. Buyers are not numerous enough to buy the whole block and move prices higher.
The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.
I hope that you are right, as it would imply an almost guaranteed breakout from this level. It just doesn't add up because if your opinion is correct, than whoever is selling these coins is a terrible trader, and most terrible traders don't have 30k bitcoins. It also doesn't add up because people were willing to sell below these remarkably low prices earlier today. But I don't have a better explanation...
This is the most odd market action I've ever witnessed.
I think it is a hoarder who got sick and tired of seeing the price decline all year, and has finally thrown in the towel, but at the worst possible moment, when the curve on the daily chart has gone vertically down.
Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.
A 1200 chuck was bought just moments ago. The cost of arbitrage allows the Chinese exchanges to be somewhat higher than Bitstamp. The price is flat because there is no one willing to sell lower at these remarkably low prices. Buyers are not numerous enough to buy the whole block and move prices higher.
The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.
I hope that you are right, as it would imply an almost guaranteed breakout from this level. It just doesn't add up because if your opinion is correct, than whoever is selling these coins is a terrible trader, and most terrible traders don't have 30k bitcoins. It also doesn't add up because people were willing to sell below these remarkably low prices earlier today. But I don't have a better explanation...
This is the most odd market action I've ever witnessed.
Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.
A 1200 chunk was bought just moments ago. The cost of arbitrage allows the Chinese exchanges to be somewhat higher than Bitstamp. The price is flat because there is no one willing to sell lower at these remarkably low prices. Buyers are not numerous enough to buy the whole block and move prices higher.
The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.
Here is a notable ask wall on Bitstamp, currently 19607 BTC for sale at $300. Buyers are nibbling as I watch. I hope to get a small piece for myself if the lot is still for sale Monday morning Austin time. The collapse of the 2013 bubbles is reminding me more and more of the great bubble collapse of 2011, when I watched bitcoin fall from $30 to $3 and did not buy any more - ugh.
Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.
The motive of the whale may be ambiguous; however, the flat price performance is NOT really ambiguous. The price will NOT move very much with such a wall of BTC .
Here is a notable ask wall on Bitstamp, currently 19607 BTC for sale at $300. Buyers are nibbling as I watch. I hope to get a small piece for myself if the lot is still for sale Monday morning Austin time. The collapse of the 2013 bubbles is reminding me more and more of the great bubble collapse of 2011, when I watched bitcoin fall from $30 to $3 and did not buy any more - ugh.
Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.
Here is a notable ask wall on Bitstamp, currently 19607 BTC for sale at $300. Buyers are nibbling as I watch. I hope to get a small piece for myself if the lot is still for sale Monday morning Austin time. The collapse of the 2013 bubbles is reminding me more and more of the great bubble collapse of 2011, when I watched bitcoin fall from $30 to $3 and did not buy any more - ugh.
there we go we finally got someone who understands that bitcoin functions like any other commodity, esp like gold mining 
No it doesn't. Gold mining has output that is variable and depends on price. Bitcoin doesn't.
Interesting poin, IMO.
Gold does have output that is variable and depends on price, but maybe the mining aspect is better viewed initially with something like coal that is less variable because coal provides US with 60% of electric and that is basically constant for ~6 month periods (weather). Since BTC has a defined output also.
Gold is the best analogy, because it is a (relatively) fixed volume (production is a small percentage of existing monetary gold), and relatively little is consumed.
It may be the best analogy, but it is still a poor one because quantity of supply is responsive to price. With Bitcoin only cost of supply changes, but quantity does not.
This is a difference in kind, and Bitcoin as a mathematical construction does not operate the same way as non-synthetic markets such as gold do. There might be some financial assets that as mathematical constructions also behave like Bitcoin, although I don't know what they are. You can rule out any non-virtual good behaving like Bitcoin though.
...
Gold is the best analogy, because it is a (relatively) fixed volume (production is a small percentage of existing monetary gold), and relatively little is consumed.
Gold is the best analogy, because it is a (relatively) fixed volume (production is a small percentage of existing monetary gold), and relatively little is consumed.
What percentage of the total gold supply is mined yearly? <==not rhetorical, don't know
What percentage of total BTC supply is mined yearly? <==this one I know
For gold, 1-2 %, may rise with a high price, may rise if some new technology is found.
Bitcoin, you know that one, but it is also predetermined, so you can remove it from the function just like you remove constants from a derivative function. Could the current bitcoin production affect supply (the sell orders)? Yes, for some, but it can also be ignored by some. The speculation of a grand appreciation is currently overwhelming all other reasons for demand.
I imagine this is an indication you are interested in accumulating BTC again.
Well I don't want to make too small gains, but big gains are fine for me. The castle was bought when BTC was $675. So I am tempted to exchange it back for coins if it goes to $200. And then buy a castle again with 1/3 of the money when BTC is in reasonable prices.
Nothing is permanent in life.
I don't understand why it would matter if you sell the castle for BTC or for fiat - because in either case you are using the fiat value of the castle as the measurement for how much (either BTC or fiat) to receive.
A considerable problem with real estate can be the considerable transaction fees that may be involved in transacting in such.... and sometimes the time that it could take to finalize various aspects of the deal. Do we really believe that BTC prices could remain in this $200 to $400 price range for 3-6 months?
I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.
The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.
So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin
? price discovery is defined by supply and demand.... BTW even if miners stop selling for a whole year the fact that there is still 13 million Bitcoin in circulation while the bookorders of all exchanges combined make less than 100K BTC in the best case, and if we talk fiat, last time I checked (today) the book orders combined doesn't make more than $15 million .... is just scary.
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