Topic: [Rugby] Union / League / Super / Sixes Sevens Pro14 / Cups & Tours / Olympics - page 42. (Read 16842 times)

Interesting picks Timelord, so early in the season I basing my bets on last years top teams,
Panthers, Eels, Storm, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Cowboys.

I have my bet on the Eels tomorrow (dont know why I thought that game was earlier?)

I'll probably go with:

Storm to beat the Titans
Cowboys to beat Warriors and
Sharks to beat the Raiders.

I've been on this site reading a few previews, I'll see if the predictions hold true on Sunday

https://nothingbutleague.com/tag/2023-nrl-preview-and-predictions/

Wednesday your time - Thursday here in Oz time (GMT +10 AEST) - (about 30 hours from now)

Manly Sea Eagles play Parramata Eels tomorrow, Its strange to see a game on Wednesday?

Anyway I'm backing the Eels to win @ 2.33, Sea Eagles are favourites but not by much.

Funny to see the Sea Eagles in top spot and the Eels at the bottom. The ladder is a bit skewed
though, the Sea Eagles had a bye last weekend.

Italy's attacking play is indeed great ATM but they still have work to do. They were targeting
that Welsh game big time.

It was good to see Wales showing some signs of improvement in that game. Massive game coming
now for them against France.

On Ireland, there is nothing between ourselves and France in the world rankings.
This years Six Nations has been good so far and its reward for the systems
the IRFU have put in place, there is a very healthy schools system which ultimately
feeds right up to the top senior teams and internationally. We lost a lot of key players
in that game, both hookers, no.12, no.8 and lock and still hat the cover on the bench
and on field skill to win with van der Flier^no.8 throwing the lineouts.

Its the same thing at Leinster who are unbeaten this season, they have massive
competition for every position.

Lucky you decided that, I mean Wales looked much better than Italy. I'm not taking that as us turning a corner, but rather Italy still isn't quite there. They've looked good all tournament, but Saturday they made a ton of mistakes, and generally looked pretty poor in defense. Their attacking play was absolutely brilliant at times, and they probably should've scored at least another try. However, ultimately it looked like Wales were the better team, and deserved the result. I got all my predictions right except for this game, although I'd never bet for anyone against Wales so I didn't lose out on anything.

Ireland probably deserve it this year, I'm gutted because I was hoping Scotland could get the championship, but they seem a little too far away at the moment or Ireland is just very good this season.

Great news or the victors - not so good for the rest.  I had a feeling those three would win.  Nice to win a parlay for a change (even if it was only some loose change I was betting with).

The Wests Tigers staged a valiant second half comeback and blew it seconds after the full time hooter sounded.  I was also able to see the second half of the St George - Titans game where slowly, but surely the Saints poured on the points and edged further in front.

Yea??? dont know how I came up with that, anyway yea well done the Dolphins.

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Scotland v Ireland - The first half was close enough, 1 point separating the two
at half time but Ireland in the second half played in a different gear scoring 2 more
tried and holding Scotland scoreless.

BIG game next weekend for both the Triple Crown and the Championship!

France really put it up to England - massive difference in scores, the first 10 minutes
kind of looked like it may be a closer game but France were just too good.

Huh?  The Dolphins won! https://www.nrl.com/draw/nrl-premiership/2023/round-2/dolphins-v-raiders/ 20 - 14 after trailing early in the game.  The Dolphins were playing at home on a drizzly Saturday afternoon.

It would have been cringe-worthy sitting through the Bulldogs game - I can't recall the exact figure, but it was something like $4 the Bulldogs were paying. (Ouch!!)


https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/preview/preview-scotland-v-ireland-4#preview

Game starts in a bit under 15 hours from now with Ireland favoured to win by the various betting sites offering $1.38 to $3.00.

France trounced England 53 - 10 and were already half way to that score at half time.  Wales on the other hand were up 22 -3 against Italy at half time before they clawed back some of that trailing deficit to eventually loose 29 - 17

In the US Major League Rugby Seattle ($1.45) are playing Houston ($2.65) - I'm going to go with Houston who I've placed some bets on in the recent past.

Cant believe the Bulldogs beat Storm? and the Raiders killed our bets on the Dolphins.

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Wales did the job against Italy, it was a great game, Wales were a bit lucky ^{maybe not the right word}
Italy had plenty of chances to score but couldnt finish.

Just watching England v France, its 9 minutes gone and has the makings of a great
game, its all France ATM!

Two in a row.  Now to make it three on the trot!

Newcastle Knights - Dolphins (NRL) 17 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 2.48 Taken Amount: 0.30 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.744 mBTC

I've finally been able to put a wager on this afternoons Dolphins game at Lang Park in this constant drizzling rain:

Dolphins (NRL) - Canberra Raiders 11 Mar 2023 16:30 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 2.35 Taken Amount: 0.21 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.494 mBTC

Plus, I've put down a couple of small wagers on the Rugby sixes:  

Italy - Wales 12 Mar 2023 00:15 Money Line Wales @ 1.71 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.086 mBTC
England - France 12 Mar 2023 02:45 Money Line France @ 1.65 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.083 mBTC
Scotland - Ireland 13 Mar 2023 01:00 Money Line Ireland @ 1.31 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.066 mBTC

On Nitrogen these are the three favoured teams, so well find out soon if they are right.

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As expected, the Broncos did the job against the Townsville Cowboys.  Unfortunately, the Eels tanked seconds after the full time hooter unable to land a try to push the game into golden point.  The irst match o the round the Panthers out played the Rabbitohs.  It wasn't that the Rabbitohs underperformed, rather the Panthers played better.

One statistic I did hear during the Sharks/Eels game was only three teams in the 25 years of the "NRL" have gone on to win the series after loosing the first two round games.

I'm only doing 2 Six Nations bets this round, France to beat England @ 1.76 and Ireland
to beat Scotland @ 1.36 on Rollbit.

I'm not betting on Wales v Italy. I half think Italy because they are playing Wales  ^{sorry Welsh}
and they have performed really well this year, surprisingly well and then the other half of me
thinks Wales will turn the corner with this game and get to grips with their handling errors
and penalty count, so its too close to call for me.

Scotland v Ireland, Personally my thinking on Scotland is that they are filling a void. With
the fact that Wales are not performing this year and England are not the team they
once were Scotland look better. They have only beaten Wales and England, couldnt beat
France and I think Ireland will be tough for them also.

They are nice odds on Scotland but its a tough ask for them IMO.

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I put a $1 bet on the cowboys 🤐

And the Sharks did come back into it, 30 points in the second half to wing the game!

France to beat England at 1.72 is looking very nice, I wouldn't have thought we'd get those odds. England, as I said before haven't looked great for a few seasons now, and against a really struggling Wales side. Italy, obviously with the 1.80 against Wales also looks good, I mean this weekend is probably some of the best value bets you can get in the Six Nations. Also, Scotland against Ireland is 3.60, I think that's the most risky bet to make, but that's also very good odds. You chuck an accumulator on for all three of those, and that's 13.36.

Obviously, I'll never bet against Wales, but if I was a neutral that looks like a very good accumulator to me, the only real risky one is Scotland, but on their day they can beat Ireland. France, I think will find it easy, Italy, and Wales will likely be a close game.

Yea in my mind I questioned the loaning of players too, It seems a bit of an odd concept.

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In the NRL this week I havent placed any bets yet, I'll hold off until tomorrows games and
I thinking of going with these:

Roosters to beat the warriors @ 1.21
Dolphins to beat the Raiders @ 2.5
Storm to beat the Bulldogs @ 1.38

Broncos are favourites against the Cowboys, didnt the Broncos start strong last season too?

and currently on half time its Eels 10 - 0 Sharks - Sharks could come back into this....

There are some fairly strong points in that article that mirror exactly what I've been saying for a while.  Not sure what Championship they are referring to, however it may be like the midweek series played between Qld and NSW teams in the 1970's/80's that was play side-by-side with the State Competitions.

I disagree with a relegated team loaning their best out - there's no motivation for a loosing team to try to get back into the competition.  Both the Qld and NSW State Competitions agree that teams can be promoted and they accept relegated teams back into their fold.  Plain and simple.  The Auckland Warriors, Canberra Raiders and Melbourne Storm would also have more motivation to play well.  I'm not sure which of the New Zealand teams (or Victorian) could be promoted and I wouldn't like to see Auckland or Melbourne stay in the comp if they can't play.  Canberra would probably be relegated to the NSW comp.


Right smack bank in the middle of lockdowns when there were rumblings of getting the isolated teams moved around the nation and being busted flouting the strict lockdown laws.

That sounds very messy indeed.

I did a google search on NRL Relegation System and came across this argument FOR such a
system, its from 2021 but its really interesting reading.

https://www.totalrl.com/forums/index.php?/topic/360913-do-you-support-a-promotionrelegation-system-in-the-nrl/


Those bullet points all make for a great argument but it comes down to money and
like you say there must have been quite a sum passed to promote the Dolphins and
have an odd number of teams in the premiership.

Very much so. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redcliffe_Dolphins

You have to drive past their stadium on the way into Redcliffe from Anzac Avenue and some of the NRL games the last couple of years have been played there.  (Plus, they won the State based competition a couple of times in more recent years and as a part of the Queensland Cup games are played there during the season so if you've ever seen one of their home games, you would have seen their stadium)

On the other hand, the Brisbane Broncos, Gold Coast Titans and Townsville (NQ) Cowboys are totally manufactured out of thin air teams.  The Broncos had their origins from the Brisbane "West's Panthers" who were based in Bardon and moved their club house to Red Hill.  Essentially the players were kicked out, the fans ignored and Queensland players who had been playing in the N(SW)RL comp were parachuted into the Broncos.

(Plus there is a convoluted "feeder" system for local clubs feeding into NRL teams interstate (very messy)

While it's true they've won the NRL competition in the past during the State of Origin series the Qld team was essentially the Broncos team and their reserve grade players were elevated for three weeks (and would loose) then get dumped back into the training squad once the SOO was over.  You could win money betting against the Broncos during the SOO each year or a decade simply because they were playing for Queensland against NSW.

Some really big money has changed hands to elevate the Dolphins into the N(SW)RL - some of that funding has come from the Moreton Bay Regional Council who also dug deep to fund/own the Redcliffe (Kippa-Ring) railway line from Petrie.  The Kippa-Ring station isn't that far from the Stadium (a short shuttle bus run on game day)  It is walkable if you're really energetic.

At the end of last year under a (UK football style) relegation system, the Gold Coast Titans would have been relegated and the Dolphins parachuted into the National Comp.  Unfortunately, it (the NRL) is very much still a New South Wales centric competition with a couple of ring ins.

The PNG Hunters (who are based on the Gold Coast and play in the Queensland Cup) are making noises to be elevated into the NRL.

Hey thats probably what happened to my bet too on Storm, I used Nitro too, I was so sure
I had placed that bet, so it just got refunded.

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So yea instead of relegating a team this year they just added one more.

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I forgot to mention that my 3 URC bets last weekend won, which is nice to balance
the NRL ones!

So this weekend coming we have R4 of the Six Nations and R2 of the NRL.

Have no idea what im betting on yet.

Thats interesting about the Dolphins, it will be very interesting to see how they go,
Timelord, would you have been familiar with them before this year?

Massive win.  After a couple of stumbles, the Dolphins romped home stunning everyone except the 30,000 supporters at Lang Park cheering them on.


At the end of last season I would have definitely said - Wests Tigers (NSW), Canberra Raiders (notionally NSW) and the Gold Coast Titans (Qld).  The Titans have won exactly ONE game thus far, so it's too early to say if they are going to redeem themselves this year (and the Auckland Warriors based on last year's performance).

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Round One wins and losses:  Not sure why, but the Storm game got refunded (but they were happy enough to take my money on the Parlay, not cancel it too)




Four (plus one) from seven (plus one)

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For NRL 2023 - round two I thought I might get a little brazen and bet a little extra on the teams who won the week before .

Penrith Panthers - South Sydney Rabbitohs 09 Mar 2023 19:00 Money Line South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 2.62 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.131 mBTC
Parramatta Eels - Cronulla Sharks 10 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Parramatta Eels @ 1.48 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.074 mBTC
Brisbane Broncos - North Queensland Cowboys 10 Mar 2023 19:05 Money Line Brisbane Broncos @ 1.75 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.088 mBTC
Sydney Roosters - New Zealand Warriors 11 Mar 2023 14:00 Money Line New Zealand Warriors @ 4.92 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.246 mBTC
Melbourne Storm - Canterbury Bulldogs 11 Mar 2023 18:35 Money Line Melbourne Storm @ 1.34 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.067 mBTC
Wests Tigers - Newcastle Knights 12 Mar 2023 15:05 Money Line Newcastle Knights @ 2.22 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.111 mBTC
St George/Illawarra Dragons - Gold Coast Titans 12 Mar 2023 17:15 Money Line Gold Coast Titans @ 1.97 Taken Amount: 0.10 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.197 mBTC



I'm wondering if nitrobetting.eu got stung big time with Dolphins bets in round one - they aren't offering any odds on the Dolphins game two.  (but they're offering odds of $2.97 on game three) - (If that changes later in the week I'll let you know).

Round three NRL 2023

Newcastle Knights - Dolphins (NRL) 17 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 2.95 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.148 mBTC

Welcome to the premiership Dolphins!



Big win over a top team as predicted by yourself Timelord. I didnt bet on that game.

So are there other teams which could potentially fit into your relegation structure?
I'm sure there are in lower tier competitions, teams that are always at the top there
who would fill the place of relegated teams like....Wests Tigers