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But military strategists and policy makers across the West are already starting to think about next year’s spring offensive. The shift reflects a deepening appreciation that, barring a major breakthrough, Ukraine’s fight to eject Russia’s invasion forces is likely to take a long time.
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But an initial attempt to use newly supplied Western tanks and armored vehicles to punch through fortified Russian lines stalled.
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But military leaders and policy makers already are grappling with the question of what can be achieved in the next few months and how to prepare for a protracted conflict.
A nagging concern in Kyiv and Western capitals is that politicians and voters may come to see the war as a quagmire and sour on supporting Ukraine. Even if Kyiv’s Western backers stay resolute, clocks are ticking as Ukrainian forces burn through munitions, manpower and stamina for a grueling fight.
All military campaigns end at some point—even in wars that grind on for years—at what tacticians call a culmination, or the point when advancing forces can go no further due to success, impediments or lack of supplies.
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“I do think there’s a realization in the administration that Ukraine’s not going to be regaining all its territory any time soon,” Daalder said. [former President Barack Obama’s ambassador to NATO]
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U.S. and other Western officials have hoped that a significant Ukrainian breakthrough could bruise Russian forces enough to bring President Vladimir Putin to a negotiating table as soon as this winter for serious talks about some kind of settlement. Chances of that happening now appear slim, diplomats say.
Instead, Russia is reinforcing its physical defenses in Ukraine, adding more soldiers and ramping up production of ammunition and weaponry. The West is also cranking up military industries, raising the prospect of a protracted war of attrition.
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History shows otherwise, with wars averaging from three to seven years with multiple campaign seasons, they say.
“This war could look like the Korean War, with rapid movement on the front line in the early months and then relative stasis—but it takes years for both sides to realize that,” said Dmitry Gorenburg, a Russia expert at the Center for Naval Analyses, a think tank linked to the Pentagon.
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Rain and snow might slow operations of heavy equipment such as tanks, but Ukrainian forces have proven most effective so far when operating in small units, often with lighter equipment.
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Ukraine’s initial attempts to use European tanks and U.S. troop carriers in the offensive didn’t fare well, but by next spring Kyiv will have both more Western equipment and more skilled operators of the gear.
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By the middle of next year, Ukraine might also be flying U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters
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Russia has antiaircraft systems that might hit the planes, raising concerns in Washington that Ukrainian fighters would just get shot down. Equipping them with munitions such as the Joint Standoff Weapon and Paveway precision-guided bombs could allow F-16s to keep a safer distance from the front.
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The West might also eventually provide more advanced equipment, like sophisticated drones capable of air attacks. Early this year U.S. weapons maker General Atomics offered Ukraine two of its Reaper MQ-9 drones for one dollar
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Working against Ukraine, in addition to weather, are potentially dwindling supplies of Western munitions and wear on equipment already donated.
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Russia also continues to reinforce its defenses in Ukraine, including by putting new land mines in some places Ukrainian troops have cleared them.
Strategists looking to next year and beyond hope that over time—even as Russia reinforces impediments to Ukrainian assaults—Ukrainian troops can acquire skills and experience that allow them to outmaneuver and outsmart Russian forces.
How politicians will view the war next year remains a widespread concern, especially because of the U.S. presidential election next November. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, has suggested he would curtail support to Ukraine.
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Concern that such support might fade if Trump were to regain the White House increases pressure on Ukraine and its supporters to deliver significant gains in the next campaign season if they aren’t possible this year.
So now Ukrainians are more effective without tanks so much for freeing the leopard and abrams . Experiment have failed (which suddenly was always obvious to everyone), but despite Russians having even more time to prepare, double up their defense lines and mine fields, we're willing to try again but this time we'll give you F16s (maybe) and perhaps some drones (like Bayraktars you had) (also maybe), which we know will get shot down so perhaps they'll just lob missiles from far away, that will surely be a game changer next year, and potential new president will stop this all, so yeah good luck but in any case you just get more manpower ready and hope. Who wouldn't want to sign up for this