Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim - page 10. (Read 3081 times)

If I get it right, if you sell 100 of something for 1 dollar each, but then the prices change and you sell 50 of that same thing but for 10 each, you will make a lot more money. This is what happened to Russia, sure they are probably selling a lot less, but they are selling for a lot more money. Look at their fiat, their fiat (ruble) got a lot more powerful against dollar, why? Because they are doing fine and this war didn't hurt the general economy of the nation. One key reason is the fact that oil went up, but another and probably even bigger reason is the fact that the whole world was filled with oligarchs and russian money, and all of those people turned their money into ruble and stored it in Russia. So all those tens of billions, probably hundreds of billions of dollars that was used by russian wealthy people all around the world, all went into ruble to make it stronger, wasn't the purpose and they just wanted to put it somewhere safe, but it did helped ruble for sure.

I am not sure this prediction of -30% by the end of the year is legit, to be honest, but it's good if it is. That being said, if exports are up by so much, why is the prediction so negative?
I think that the Western countries want to show and prove that their sanctions are serious and are working, while Ukraine is pressuring them for imposing much more because the idea is to help stop the war, and if Russia keeps going with the war, it means the current sanctions aren't enough. Also, while initially it looked like Russian economy was exploding, they managed to stabilize the ruble and 4 months into the war they can still afford it, although the consumer prices did grow significantly for Russians, so it's not like sanctions didn't do anything.

All European sanctions that are directed against Russia will harm Europe more than Russia.
If Europe wants gas independence, then it will require billions of investments and at least 7-10 years to build infrastructure. And then they will be depending on the USA.

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Show me at least one communist in Russia

US has gas, US has money. Europe has money and Russia has gas. US is pushing war. Russia is saving its leftover ego. Europe wants to be US little brother and Ukraine is burning.. Russian economy will batter down, inflation will pull down Europe. US might finally win over communists But at the cost of unstable Europe.  Who will benefit from this? May be china and middle east, both producers of goods and oil.

Of course, in Russia they can strain themselves, restore the old technologies of the last century and be content with domestic goods that the leading countries have not used for half a century. Russian soldiers who robbed civilian homes in Irpen and Bucha in Ukraine were surprised at the toilet bowls in private houses and the interiors in these houses in general. They don't know these modern conveniences. Of course, not everyone in Russia lives like this. In Moscow, St. Petersburg and several other cities they live there like the rest of the civilized world.
Therefore, I don’t understand one thing: why was it necessary to attack a peaceful neighboring country at all, destroy all the infrastructure there, kill its civilians, and for such pleasure be subjected to harsh international sanctions that isolate Russians from the civilized world and set Russia back in development for many decades back. At the same time, here now to prove that Russia in its current difficult situation will be able to survive. Do Russians take pleasure in hurting others, or in making life much more difficult for them? What kind of masochistic nation is this? Of course, why be surprised if after that everything Russian is being destroyed in Ukraine in order not to hear and communicate with Russians in the future.

I also cannot say that I am the chief engineer of the neon production workshop, but there is a quite accessible procedure for obtaining neon from the by-products of metallurgical production. In fact, neon is not mined, it is one of the by-products that is formed as a result of the liquefaction and separation of ... simple air, in the metallurgical industry. The primary raw material is a neon-hel mixture, which is a by-product of the above process.

But the separation of helium and neon is carried out due to adsorption and condensation. The adsorption method is based on the ability of neon, unlike helium, to be adsorbed by activated carbon cooled with liquid nitrogen. The condensation method is based on neon freezing when the mixture is cooled.
It doesn't look like any toxic inhibitors or additives are used here, it's just that the production is very specific and the equipment is not cheap.

I did not go deep into the technology of neon production, as far as I understand, this is not a very environmentally friendly event. Therefore, in principle, its production can be established within a year in many countries of the world, but there is no queue of those who want to. In fact, at present, inert gases are a strong lever of pressure from Russia on unfriendly countries, in the future this situation may change, but now it is so.

The article smells very strongly, no, not for biased, but absolutely about the Russian. The result of the article - well, where are you without Russia!? Would they lie if the truth was reprinted in Russian media
https://inosmi.ru/20220531/resursy-254354103.html

By the way, there is not a word about the fact that Russian resources are the main raw material for all neon production in Ukraine. It only says that 1 out of 2 plants supplied products from the Russian steel industry. "Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian - your words"? Maybe you didn't understand the question? Ok, I repeat once again - indicate a trustworthy source containing verified information that everything, as you indicated, Ukrainian production works on Russian raw materials, and without it it cannot produce neon? Did you mean that in your original post? If not, then there is no particular problem, only part of the raw materials for 1 plant "fell off", which can be compensated by supplies from other countries - Germany, Slovenia, Italy ... Or are there steel mills only in Russia?

I can only add, I stand by the truth in any situation, that Ukrainian companies, in some cases, partially used Russian raw materials, both for part of their needs, and on a contract basis, for Russian producers, performing post-treatment of primary raw materials (a by-product of metallurgy) . But Russian raw materials were not of any critical importance. By the way, you forgot to mention that the article says "Ukraine provides half of the world's neon supplies." Half is 50%, or do you think differently?

The plant located in Odessa will be launched. The plant in Mariupol, after being freed from terrorists, will also be put into operation - the country and business need money.
I am not ready to say how much the Neon plant suffered from terrorists, but if it cannot quickly enter into operation, it is possible that production will be increased in Odessa. Yes, there will be a noticeable decrease in supplies, but the world market will now perfectly understand that dealing with such terrorist suppliers as Russia should never be done again.

In Ukraine, two companies prior to the start of the operation were cleaning Russian neon for the needs of microelectronics - Cryoin in Odessa and Ingaz in Mariupol. I think Ukraine will hardly be able to launch a company in Mariupol in the foreseeable future, there are also doubts about Odessa.

It is not difficult to confirm this information with a link, it is more difficult to find a link that is not affiliated with Russia and which you can trust.

For example here is an article in a Spanish newspaper.

Quote from the article at the link, highlighted by me.

Both suspended and launched, production is not in the combat zone, as well as a significant part of the raw materials sources (industries).
And now bother to provide evidence that all the neon produced by Ukraine was just a post-treatment of the Russian one? But just not links to fake generators like RushToday or other fake media from Russia?

Microchips and modern electronic components will anyhow land in Russia. The only difference is that they will be smuggled from China and the Russians will be forced to pay a premium for it. The Russians themselves are not going to bother much, as long as they are earning $20 to $25 billion every month from the sale of fossil fuels. A Russian minister recently proposed reducing the crude oil production from 10 million barrels to 7 million barrels a day, to avoid selling oil in discount. Even now they are earning $80 to $90 per barrel, which is much higher than the level in 2021.

In my opinion, the Russian economy will not collapse due to the imposition of Western sanctions.  

However, Russia is threatened with the "archaization" of the economy.  

At the same time, cars, trains, planes, and trains were produced in the USSR.  All this functioned without the use of modern electronics.  The Russians have the opportunity to gradually restore their heavy industry and even machine tool building. The economy will function.

However, in the field of microelectronics and modern technologies, Russia are hopelessly behind the countries of the Western world.

As westerners always do, they cut the branch in which they are sitting in. First they restrict oil and gas imports from Russia, thereby harming their own manufacturing units. Now the factories in Europe can't compete with those in the United States and China. On top of that, they are importing refined petroleum products from Indian oil firms, paying a premium. Now automobile manufacturing is going to suffer, as a result of shortage in the microchip sector. For sometime, the citizens are not going to realize this, because the mainstream media will try their best in hiding these facts. But sooner or later, people are going to rebel against rising expenses.

Ukraine stopped supplying neon to the market at the very beginning of the special operation. The share of Ukraine was about 40% and then became zero. Russia's share was about 30% and has now also dropped sharply due to the export ban. As a result, just about two-thirds of the total fell out, everything is in order with arithmetic.

You may also be interested to know that Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian. For the production of microelectronics, high-purity neon is needed.

It is so interesting to communicate with you!

1. Tell me - are you all right with arithmetic? I don’t want to offend you .. but 2/3 of 100% of the market is about 67%. Those. In your opinion, Russia, which supplied 30% of neon to the world market, is this equal to 67%? Are you seriously ?
But I will support you in your remark - let's see how the market will be rebuilt in connection with another fact proving the unpredictability of Russia as a supplier.

2. I think that Britain simply imposed additional sanctions against the international terrorist to reduce his ability to finance his criminal regime.
In your opinion, the court that passes sentence on a criminal, in the form of imprisonment (restriction of freedom and the possibility of committing crimes) - threaten themselves with self-isolation from the criminal?!

Let's see what the reaction of the market will be to the loss of two-thirds of the total volume of neon at once.

I think this means that Europe is trying to fence itself off from Russia with an iron curtain, although this directly threatens its own energy security. The lease of a tanker for the transportation of liquefied gas has already increased by a third from 80 to 120 thousand dollars per day with a contract for a year.

Oil spills are very rare and the risk is similar with pipeline oil exports as well. And by now, regimes such as Iran, Venezuela and Russia, who don't have good relations with the West, have learnt how to circumvent the sanctions. Iran for example is relying on stealth shipments and ship-to-ship transfer to avoid detection. A few weeks ago, there was a high level meeting between Iranian and Russian officials on this topic. As long as the prices remain in the $110-120 range and demand is high, Russia is not going to face much issue in exporting it's oil.

Oil tankers can cause major environmental damages if there's an oil spill. There's only a handful of companies willing to insure oil shipments, and they're British or Swiss. There's always a black market, the islamic state was known to smuggle oil in Syria, but if you want to sell a lot of oil at market price, you've got to do it right, with a registered and properly insured tanker. Serious buyers will require that.

About inert gases. An alternative could be supplies from Ukraine Only one of the companies producing such gases can put on the market: Neon - 70,000 m3, Xenon - 480 m3, Krypton - 6000 m3, Argon - 12,000 tons . I will clarify - Ukraine provides about half of the world's demand for neon
For other gases, Russia supplies no more than 30% to the market. I do not think that this will cause global problems. Temporary - I agree. But Russia will always lose this market as well. Understand that imposing restrictions from the normal world in relation to terrorists is just a search for replacement. And the restrictions on the part of terrorists on the sale of their resources, which were in demand by the world, is a loss of the market. Like it or not, it's a fact

More interesting news:
FT: UK to ban insurance for ships carrying Russian oil
The UK and the EU have agreed to a ban on insuring ships carrying Russian oil. It is reported by the Financial Times. Thus, Russia will be deprived of access to the vital insurance market of Lloyd's of London.

This means that Moscow's ability to export crude oil will be severely limited, and Russian suppliers will have to look for an alternative to British insurance in other, smaller markets. The ban on insurance of oil ships has become part of the sixth package of EU sanctions, writes the Financial Times. As the newspaper notes, such a decision will also increase pressure on global oil markets.

Do you know what that means?

Saying usa and EU are peace promoter in the world is biggest lie joke. The point where world stands today is because of usa and EU wars which they started just for there own gains. USA and EU are doing dirty tactics once again by supping arms to ukarine and imposing sanctions on Russia while they live happily in there own countries.