Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim - page 6. (Read 3911 times)

Starting a military invasion of Ukraine, Putin expected to conquer all of Ukraine in a few days and install his puppet government there. To do this, at the same time as the invasion, the former President of Ukraine Yanukovych was brought to Belarus, who had previously fled to Russia and who was actually under the control of Putin. Therefore, Putin did not count on any Western sanctions. He hoped that Ukraine would fall even before any action was taken in Europe and the United States. But these plans were thwarted by the people of Ukraine and its armed forces. Only when they saw that the Ukrainians offered serious resistance and inflicted a major defeat on the Russian troops, after which they were forced to flee from the central and northern parts of Ukraine, so as not to be completely defeated, the NATO countries began to provide assistance to Ukraine, since they were interested in the military and economic weakening of Russia as a potential adversary, and without the loss of their soldiers, but by the hands of the Ukrainians.

Speaking of Russia's new economic union, do you mean the BRICS union? It is unlikely that he will significantly improve the current deplorable economic situation in Russia, which arose after Putin foolishly attacked Ukraine.

It's been over a year since the war began and it's quite shocking that the war has lingered this long. No one predicted the longevity of the war. But this is where we are and as it seems with all the unfolding drama the war has brought to the Russian economy and military, things might longer than we expect.

Looking at the effect the war has had on the Russian economy, I think it all struggled at the inception of the sanctions placed on them by the U.N, U.S, U.K and other powerful countries. However, things have flipped dramatically in favour of the Russian government to some extent as they have been able to form some sort of economic alliance with top energy producers globally including China and Saudi Arabia. These moves have to control favour the Russian government in the area of energy supplies and this stabilised the Russian economy.

More interesting developments may unfold. So, let's expect more twists...

Yes, Russia's exports of wheat and other grains are increasing this year, given that Russia is stealing it from Ukraine. Now from the ports of Ukraine, especially Berdyansk, Ukrainian grain is massively exported. Although, almost everything that can be taken out of the occupied territory of Ukraine is stolen. But rejoicing at the stolen is hardly worth it.

^^^ The picture of Russian economy imploding has been painted for one and half years now. But on the ground the situation seems to be quite normal in Russia. Apart from the fact that the Russian Ruble is getting devalued, the economy is still resilient. And also, Russian exports of wheat and coal are at record highs, despite the reduction in exports of oil and gas. For the year 2022-23, Russia exported 45.5 million tonnes of wheat, compared to 34.5 million tonnes in the year preceding that. They are expected to export 47.5 million tonnes in 2023-24, which is more than EU and Canada.

The Russian economy "explodes" not only because of the fall in exports. Next month, it will be a year and a half since Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine continues in order to seize its territory. In the east of Ukraine, the Russian occupiers have not been able to significantly advance deep into the territory of Ukraine during this time. Now the fighting is going on in the area of the airport near Donetsk, where they were fought back in 2014.

In the south, parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions are still occupied, but the large-scale battle for these regions is entering its final stage since the beginning of the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in early June. The southern front of the Russians is already bursting at the seams. Although the Russians created a three-level defense there up to 27 kilometers deep, mined the entire area along the offensive path of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and had multiple superiority in manpower and equipment, especially in air defense, artillery and aviation, thanks to targeted pinpoint strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the situation is now leveling off (except for the continued superiority of the Russians in aviation), and in terms of the number of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine they even have a slight advantage.

So, in Ukraine at the time of the attack in February last year, there were 987 tanks, but thanks to the capture of Russian equipment and the help of allies in the amount of 471 tanks, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine have about 1,500 tanks. In Russia at the time of the attack there were about 3400 serviceable tanks, now their number has decreased to about 1400.

Thanks to well-established counter-battery combat, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now actively knocking out enemy air defense and artillery. But in Russia there are still approximately 1900 artillery systems against 1100 in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Considering that over the past month, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed approximately 680 artillery systems, in a few weeks the Russian southern front in Ukraine may crumble due to a lack of artillery and air defense.
As for manpower, Russia has even transferred units from the eastern front to the southern front, bringing its last operational reserves into battle. And she has already run out of strategic ones. Therefore, panic among the Russian military is growing. But the townsfolk in Russia continue to be fed propaganda, although there a significant part of them are already beginning to see clearly.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing collapse of the ruble and the growth of the budget deficit, the upcoming military defeat will be a deadly shock for the Russians.

That is, you want to say that if any strong state attacks your country, you call for peace so that no one helps you repel aggression? Did I understand correctly? Or does this only apply to those cases when your country will not participate in the war?

If the world community only watches indifferently as the big states attack and capture the weak, destroy their inhabitants and destroy their infrastructure to the ground, then they themselves will someday become a victim of such aggression. The strength of society is unity. Otherwise, it will be very convenient for the aggressor to absorb neighboring states in turn.

Russia needs Ukraine only as a launching pad for attacking other countries. Initially, Putin planned to attack the Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. But then he changed his mind and decided to start with Ukraine.
Therefore, your opinion is not only wrong, but also extremely dangerous for collective security.

I'm sorry, but you are taking ERRONOUS assumptions or narratives as a basis, and drawing the wrong conclusions accordingly.
Let me help you a little, shall we?
1. Russia is not a "significant player" - in nothing! Yes Yes. Russia is just a substitute territory and .. that's all, nothing more GDP has already become less than 1% in the world ranking Is this a SIGNIFICANT indicator?
2. No one depends on Russia in terms of hydrocarbon supplies. Rather, Russia depends on whether there will be at least someone, at least some money (for example, rupees and yuan ) to buy oil and gas that the EU has stopped buying! By the way, recently - yes, the EU was the largest, dependent buyer of gas and oil. But those days are over
3. In a military sense, Russia turned out to be a complete fake, and the arms market is also lost.
4. International status... A complete fiasco - from a country "second to the poles of the bipolar world," Russia has turned into a raw materials appendage and an obedient guinea pig of China. By the way, for understanding that from the economic side, Russia is an empty place, some statistics that are very easy to check:

- Of the total imports in Russia - approximately 34%, these are imports from China.
Of the total exports of China - exports to Russia - about 2% of total exports

Well, what significance would you like to talk about?

Do you think it is time to reassess the claim made in the article that OP shared almost a year ago?
In it the "The Institute of International Finance" claims that Russian economy is "imploding" and is going to "collapse" and the GDP shrink by -30% by end of 2022.

Now I don't know which source is the most reliable but they are reporting numbers that are close. For example IMF reports a slight growth in Russia's GDP in 2022, some other sources talk about a tiny decrease (between 1 to 2%).

I think we can all agree that both businessinsider and IIF were full of it and were spreading propaganda. Of course we bitcoiners already knew that considering how many FUD businessinsider has spread about bitcoin.

Right but Russia may be facing challenges and condemnation on the international stage, it is still a significant player in global affairs with a large population and a vast territory. Russia's natural resources, particularly its oil and gas reservas, also give it significant economic leverige in the global market.

As you mentioned, many countries are dependent on Russia for their energy needs, and this could make it difficult for them to completely sever ties with Russia. The high gas prices in Europe, for example, have made many European countries more reliant on Russian gas imports.
Over all while Russia may be facing challenges and criticism on the international stage, it is still a significant player in global affairs, and it is unlikely to implode completely. But, it will need to address its economic and political challenges in order to maintain its influence in the world

Do not try to explain the reality to the supporters of the "Russian world", they react painfully to this. They need at least some kind of "fairy tale" in which Ukraine will have at least something bad

And I'm sure you yourself are watching - all their arguments are simple, primitive lies. As for example, about the same lend-lease. I answered this lie, showed how the situation looks REALLY, and not in fantasy and habitually, for the "Russian world", lies. But the most interesting thing is that there will most likely not be an answer - this opponent has repeatedly exposed himself in a very unattractive light, and when facts are given to him, he simply "goes into the bushes"

Regarding today's assistance to Ukraine - indeed, more than 85% of the assistance is allocated on the basis of a non-paid assistance program, at the expense of the helper countries. Many countries of the so-called "ex-Warsaw Pact", which have a lot of equipment produced in the USSR, and which they also give away free of charge.
And even a significant part of the financial assistance is either for symbolic interest or also non-refundable financial assistance. But in the minds of the "Russian world" the West is always "a greedy capitalist who will sell his own mother for profit"

Biden signed a lend-lease on the supply of aid to Ukraine back in May last year, but it did not work, and it is possible that deliveries will not be made under it at all. Lend-Lease was a fallback option for Biden as a direct aid to Ukraine, if the US Congress had  refused to provide such assistance. But for now, Congress, on the contrary, encourages Biden to provide more assistance to Ukraine, in particular, with F-16 aircraft and Abrams tanks, and most of this assistance is free.

If Ukraine will compensate for the weapons and other assistance supplied to it, it will be largely due to reparations from Russia, and judging by the significant material and human damage inflicted on Ukraine, the Russians will have to pay for more than one generation.

 

I just can’t understand in any way - you either believe that you can lie so primitively, or really don’t control the situation at all, and fantasize about any topic ?! And I understand what's worse!

I will give you another lesson of REAL history, it’s not difficult for me.
Lend-Lease USA-USSR.
In 1941, realizing that from yesterday's "bosom friend", with whom the USSR began to destroy Europe, a real threat arose for the USSR, and the German offensive could not be stopped by throwing the corpses of soldiers of the Red Army of the USSR, the USSR began to ask for help from the United States. Well, who has already saved both tsarist Muscovy and the young USSR-USA many times! And this time the USSR asked for help. Lendlis began work in 1941. Do you know the terms or did you make them up? Just in case, let me remind you:
- everything that was delivered to the USSR (from BUTTONS and boots, to aviation kerosene and the aircraft themselves), and everything that was used, destroyed, destroyed ... NOT PAYABLE..
And in order to understand the scale of deliveries, a few facts about how much was delivered:

Aircraft 14 795
Dances 7 056
Passenger jeeps 51 503
Trucks 375 883
Motorcycles 35 170
Tractors 8 071
Rifles 8 218
Automatic weapons 131,633
Pistols 12 997
Explosives 345,735 tons
Dynamite 70,400,000 pounds
Gunpowder 127,000 tons
TNT 271,500,000 pounds
Tiluola 237,400,000 pounds
Detonators 903 000
Building equipment $10,910,000
Freight wagons 11,155
Locomotives 1 981
Cargo ships 90
Anti-submarine ships 105
Torpedo boats 197
Radar 445
Engines for ships 7 784
Food stocks 4,478,000 tons
Machinery and equipment $1,078,965,000
Non-ferrous metals 802,000 tons
Oil products 2,670,000 tons
Chemicals 842,000 tons
Cotton 106,893,000 tons
Leather 49,860 tons
Tire 3,786,000
Army boots 15,417,000 pairs
Blankets 1 541 590
Alcohol 331 066 l
Buttons 257 723 498 pcs.

Many of them were used for decades after the "victory". In the first, most difficult year of the war, British and American tanks covered more than a third of the needs of the USSR. A quarter of all guns and one in five wartime aircraft are also from abroad.

Many positions accounted for 50 to 90% of the total that the USSR used in the war against its "friend".

- Lend-lease property left after the end of the war and suitable for civilian purposes will be paid in whole or in part on the basis of long-term loans provided by the United States (mostly interest-free loans).

Lend-lease provisions also assumed that after the war, if the American side was interested, undestroyed and unlost equipment and equipment should be returned to the United States.

And now for the calculations.
The volume of lend-lease, in favor of the USSR
Volume in prices 1941-1945 billion $11.3
Volume in 2008 billion $ ~160

At the 1948 negotiations, the Soviet representatives agreed to pay only a small amount and were met with a predictable refusal from the American side. Negotiations in 1949 also came to nothing. In 1951, the Americans twice reduced the amount of the payment, which became equal to $800 million, but the Soviet side agreed to pay only $300 million (!!!!)

An agreement with the USSR on the procedure for repaying lend-lease debts was concluded only in 1972. According to this agreement, the USSR undertook to pay $722 million by 2001, including interest. By July 1973, three payments were made for a total of $48 million, after which the payments were stopped. In June 1990, during the talks between the presidents of the United States and the USSR, the parties returned to the discussion of debt. A new deadline for the final repayment of the debt was set - 2030, and the amount - $674 million.

Now let's look at the prices:
Lend-lease, volume in prices 2008 billion $ ~160
The actual total repayments are approximately $1 billion over 60 years. This is the "gratitude" of the USSR, which, in fact, Lend-Lease saved from loss and total defeat.

Ukraine is not a deceitful and vile USSR - we know the concept of honor, dignity and duty to those who helped us!

Do you yourself believe in it? The USSR paid off its lend-lease debts in 2006, 61 years after the end of World War II. I think it will take Ukraine 150 years to pay off its debts for the supply of weapons, this is according to optimistic forecasts.

To paraphrase you, we get this:
All doctors are killers! Even if a person did not die in a hospital, the doctors are to blame!
- all illnesses because of doctors! there were no doctors and medicine - there would be no diseases!
- science and medicine, this is all because of which everyone will die
- When you are treated for a deadly disease - you are killed!
- When you are not killed, they profit, and then they kill you and profit again!


Really bullshit?

For at least the following reasons:
- Most of the aid from the US is gratuitous
However, also without payment, some of the weapons are transferred to us by other countries, and these are not front sights on trunks
- The supply of weapons to Ukraine is not a cause, but a consequence of an attempt by a terrorist country, Russia, led by a war criminal, to destroy Ukraine
- Of course, there is a positive economic effect for countries producing weapons - communism has not been built, so production is not free But they are financed by the "donor" state, which provides assistance
- Moreover, since 2016, the Ukrainian military industry has also begun to develop - these are jobs, taxes, support for the army.

So if we talk about "benefit", then not in terms of profit, but in terms of normal economic relations, in such a difficult time for Ukraine.

War is business. None of the military equipment is given free of charge to other countries. Never mind the new ones, even the used ones are still being sold.
When the US helps Ukraine today in the military field, is it given for free? Of course not. There are consequences that will be borne by Ukraine.
How is it possible for the US to monopolize military equipment throughout Europe and destroy all military equipment purchased from Russia. And the US is also unable to replace all other countries' military equipment.
What we have to understand is that war is a business. Every time there is a war going on, that's when buying and selling of military equipment, such as fighter planes and others, runs smoothly.
In addition, war is a method to test the sophistication of military tools. Many countries have developed military equipment, such as fighter aircraft, but they have never carried out direct and serious trials.
Do not think of peace if the interests of a few people have not been realized. Don't stop the war, but stop the interests that result in the war. Maybe that way peace will come.

News from Russia is like a saying. I don't know if it will be possible to convey its meaning into English, but I will try
"Things in the country were going badly ... No, it's not that it's completely bad, you can even say it's good. But every day it's getting worse and worse" ))

A small selection of news from "great Russia":
- "Russia urgently asks Kazakhstan for help after Turkey's refusal to transit sanctioned goods."
A great country, as someone else wrote - the second economy of the world (yes, yes - someone wrote such nonsense), begging from Kazakhstan so that Kazakhstan would carry at least something high-tech to the country of the progressive Middle Ages SUCCESS, what can I say!
- Turkey does not have money for the construction of a gas hub, which was proposed by the President of the Republic of Armenia Vladimir Putin (an international criminal), and if Russia wants to implement the project, it will have to take over the financing, said member of the Security and Foreign Policy Council under the President of Turkey Chagry Erhan.
- The spiral of demographic disaster continues to unwind in Russia, despite the trillion-dollar budget spending on the national project "Demography" and the president's demands to stop the population decline.
The life expectancy of men in the Russian Federation for 2019-21 decreased by almost 5 years - to 64.2 years, writes The Economist, citing official statistics.
I hope everyone understands where the money went under this program!
- Before meeting with Putin, 15 top managers and billionaires fled from the largest business association in Russia
- Well, "cherry on the cake": the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is reported by BBC News. Also, a warrant was issued for the arrest of Maria Lvova-Belova, Commissioner for Children's Rights of the Russian Federation.

“Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on October 7, 1952, the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of illegal deportation of the population (children) and their transfer from the occupied territories of Ukraine to the territory of the Russian Federation,” the ICC said in a release.

So - from the "king of serfs" to the "criminal", according to such a "heroic" article ...

Since the day of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been many polls about the Russian population's support for the war in Ukraine. As a rule, the percentage of such support invariably fluctuated between 70-75 percent. One can, of course, make allowances for the fact that the Russians are afraid to tell the truth in such polls, but we do not see any large-scale protests in Russia against the war and the massacres of the civilian population of Ukraine. In addition, in telephone conversations with the occupiers in Ukraine, their relatives either advise to rape Ukrainian women more, or order household items and even linen for themselves when committing robberies of civilian dwellings, or even bring the head of a Ukrainian from the war, or they advise killing everyone, even children, otherwise they will then grow up and take revenge on the Russians. The Russians have been zombified by Putin's long-term propaganda, but this still does not relieve them of responsibility for what they have done in Ukraine.

As for the US interest in the destruction of Russian military equipment in Ukraine during hostilities, then, of course, there should be such an interest. After all, the hands of the Ukrainians are now weakening one of their main potential opponents. And this is being successfully done by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in connection with which Russia is now experiencing an acute shortage of military equipment, especially tanks and armored vehicles, and ammunition and even small arms, since attacks by Russians with wooden sticks or shovels have already been recorded.

In addition, helping Ukraine to defend itself, European countries supply it with military equipment, mainly of Soviet production, which Ukrainians do not need to additionally master and which is immediately used at the front. Instead, the countries of Europe are adopting NATO weapons, which showed much better in this war than Russian ones.

We discussed about Putin, and the "common Russians' sentiment" about the war before. I have a new shower thought. What if the U.S. is trying to "wipe out" Russian military equipment in Central and Eastern Europe by not making the war end, then when it's finished, the U.S. will have a monopoly for military equipment in those countries across Europe, making them their everlasting vassals.

The great thing about economy is that is quite resistant to fake. You can "precision post" you way to any argument such as "if the name of someone is Kowalsky, the guy must be Polish and hate Russians". The problem is that the economy does not care about what you write, it is there destroying your future and the future of those you care for no matter what.

Again, amazing to observe how the RF can be at the same time killing by the thousands and playing the victim.

I am aware that your knowledge of history is think as spring ice, but you may want to read about Venezuela in the 90's and how it ended.

And you probably won't hear it. But it's too early to rejoice for the Russians, now I'll explain
To feel the essence of the problem - you need to visit Russia. And do the following:
1. Visit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
2. Take a car and drive through the regions - this is 100-200 km from Moscow and beyond.

In Moscow and St. Petersburg, famine is unlikely to come - all the money is concentrated there, which is essentially stolen from other regions. In Russia, all resources and income from them are concentrated in the hands of a small group of kleptomaniac terrorists who systematically rob the whole country.
But in the regions ... In the regions of Russia, people have NEVER lived normally. Poverty, vice, degradation, beggarly life, moral poverty - it's all about the Russian regions. And really only having been there, you will understand what I wanted to convey about you - THERE IS NO WHERE TO LIVE! People don't live, they exist! They receive small salaries and pensions, there is no normal medicine, no normal food, no clean water, ... The crisis cannot really affect them! For the simple reason that the crisis takes away what you have, and they have nothing all their lives! These are not horror stories, this is Russian reality, although 24 * 7 propaganda on TV tells how the whole world envy them )