Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim - page 5. (Read 3053 times)

Can you provide a link to the source so that I can read the report in the original (and so that the Autobot does not ban you for plagiarism)?

According to a Yale University study, the withdrawal of more than 1,000 international companies from the Russian Federation after Putin's invasion of Ukraine will affect 40% of the country's GDP. The collapse of imports devastated its foreign technology-dependent automotive, aviation and defense industries. Russia's gross domestic value added fell by 62% in the construction sector, by 55% in agriculture and by 25% in industry. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation have decreased by $75 billion.
The authors of the Yale report note that Putin's plans to pivot to the East make neither economic nor practical sense. In 2021, Russia exported only 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas to China, compared to 170 billion cubic meters to Europe. Now Russia's westernmost gas field, Chayanda, connected to China via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, has a maximum projected annual capacity of just 25 billion cubic meters - "and that only by 2025." "Other gas fields, in particular Sakhalin and Khabarovsk, should be connected to the Power of Siberia. But even when the entire Far Eastern gas network is completed, its throughput will still not reach the capacity of one of the Russian gas pipelines to Europe - Nord Stream - 1" (55 billion cubic meters)," the authors note.

At the same time, the announced Power of Siberia 2 pipeline with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year, which should connect the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic with China, remains a plan on paper. Gazprom, being cut off by sanctions from attracting international finance and buying Western equipment, cannot finance this project. Therefore, in fact, everything is very bad in Russia.

It seems like Putin has done all necessary homework before this attack. See who is suffering most, IMO EU and ukarine. While Russia has found new oil importers like China and even gulf countries are importing Russian oil. USA is also one of biggest beneficiary of this conflict as dollar is sky high.

Boris Johnson was forced to resign due to his accusations of domestic actions, not state affairs. Now in the election of the Prime Minister of Great Britain, the current British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who claims to be the Prime Minister of the country and the leader of the Conservative Party, is leading.
Recently, she has received the support of her former main rival Penny Mordaunt.
Junior Commerce Secretary Penny Mordaunt was the latest candidate to be eliminated in a vote by lawmakers from the ruling Conservative Party, losing to Truss by just eight votes. As noted, Mordaunt joined other ministers who have backed Truss in recent days, including Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and Treasury Secretary Nadhim Zahavi.

So far Truss is the favorite in this election. The leader of the 160,000 members of the Conservative Party was supposed to be elected by September 5, but the election was postponed due to the threat of interference in the elections by the hackers. I think that Liz Truss will become the new prime minister and Johnson's old policy will continue.

I respect your opinion as the author of the coolest jokes about the "greatness of Russia" and the "collapse of the world economy"

In the meantime, a few facts about "great Russia" - look what a lovely piece of news. Russia has success everywhere!
Moscow. August 1. INTERFAX.RU - The Bank of Russia estimated the fall of the Russian economy in the second quarter of 2022 at 4.3%, in the third quarter the decline is estimated at 7%. Such data are contained in the July report on monetary policy.
The Ministry of Economic Development previously estimated the decline in Russia's GDP in the second quarter at 4%.
Annual inflation in the third quarter, according to the Central Bank, will be 14.5%.
https://www.interfax.ru/business/854794

And now a nuance: Russia is a country of total lies (this is part of the culture), and if they officially write something, then it must be multiplied by at least 2 if it is about some kind of shortcomings. As, however, and divide by 10 if they say (read - lie), about success

I read your posts like a humorous magazine. Summary: Russia is falling apart, children are drowning in toilets, grandmothers are praying for Putin, and the Buryats are running out.

You can now say anything. But the fact remains that oil is getting cheaper, Russia is rapidly losing high-priced markets, and the European hydrocarbon market is falling out of Russia's hands. India and China will not help in any way, because. redeem the surplus at a dumping price ...

Here, for example, is a real fact - Russia began to stupidly burn gas, which they decided to undersupply to the EU, as part of economic terrorism Idiot terrorists understand that conservation will mean the destruction of the well, because Russia is a technologically backward country, and without Western technologies it will not reopen wells

The EU ban on Russian crude is still 4 months away. I don't see any oversupply of Russian crude before that date. For the month of July, Netherlands and a few other European countries have increased their intake of Russian crude. The Indian and Russian refineries (such as IOC and Sinopec) are complaining that the discounts are not very attractive. And I don't think that the revenues from natural gas sales are down by a lot. Yamal LNG is still able to sell their cargoes at ultra-high prices. Russian gas is still flowing through the Ukrainian route, and Nord Stream is operating at 20% capacity. All this, while natural gas is trading at close to $2,300 per thousand cubic meters at Dutch TTF.

Therefore, it is worth expressing doubts when there will be official data (as confirmation of doubts), and now these are just fantasies, due to lack of information

Regarding the reduction of discounts - no, there won't be, because soon the EU will completely abandon everything except pipeline oil (and then from it), which will lead to an oversupply of Russian oil. The market regulates this only by lowering the price from the "limited supplier". Russia has already reduced gas production, and has already begun to lose huge amounts of money. But a month ago they were screaming like that - "without us, you will all freeze!" and "you have nowhere to take gas except from Russia", they are funny, right!?

I can't talk about other points, but this one doesn't sound very accurate.

For the month of June, the top crude oil supplier to India was Russia. We got 1.18 million barrels per day from Russia, 1.13 million from Iraq and 0.784 million from Saudi Arabia. For the month of July final data is not yet available, but I don't think that supplies from Saudi has overtaken those from Russia. Because in addition to the Urals crude from the European part of Russia, Indian refineries are importing ESPO crude from the Asian part as well.

But there is proof that the discount on Russian crude is evaporating. Previously Indian refiners were reporting discounts of up to $30 per barrel. Recently, they are reporting $8 to $12. Also, as per the Russian sources, export duty on Russian crude increased to $55.20 a ton in July, compared to $44.80 a ton in June. This means that Russians are able to sell their crude at lesser discounts.

OK. Deal. So we come to a simple, and most importantly, from the point of view of the wave effect, an absolutely correct conclusion - Russia is to blame for everything! It's a ripple effect! And whoever does not see the connection - he simply lacks development, knowledge, and the length of the line! Can you prove otherwise?
And if you don't like it, then Russia is also to blame!

Instead of disputes, simple, real facts that you can check! This is not propaganda wet fantasies. This happened over the past 1-2 weeks

- At the plant, which asked for help from Putin and produced Lada Vesta, 90% of workers are fired
If now the Lada Izhevsk enterprise employs 2,000 people, by the end of August only about 200 will remain.

- At the same time, the new Lada Vesta 2022 turned out to be more expensive than the cooler Toyota Camry and RAV4

- The Central Bank expects the collapse of the Russian economy in the second half of the year in a mode of catastrophic destruction.
The Central Bank suggests that the Russian economy in the second quarter may fall by almost 4.5-5%.

-FROM. Arabia in July increased oil exports by 15%.
She bypassed the Russian Federation in terms of supplies to China and India. And at the same time increased supplies to the EU.

- American shale turns the taps. Major US oil companies agree to drastically increase production
The Biden administration made a deal with the oilmen: they promised to increase production by 0.8-1 million barrels per day by the end of the year.

- Russia's share in world medical research has fallen below 1%

- As follows from the analytical material of Rosstat, in the first half of 2022, Russia reduced natural gas production by 6.6% compared to the same period in 2021. In June, Russia produced 39.26 billion cubic meters. m of gas, which is 23.2% less than in June last year, and 19.9% ​​less than in May 2022.
At the same time, Russian gas supplies to other countries fell by 33.1% over six and a half months, to 71.9 billion cubic meters.

And these sanctions have not yet reached their "full speed", this is still the inertia of the Russian economy

That means nothing because:

1. Everything is ultra expensive in US. That means manufacturing the simplest thing in US costs a lot more compared to manufacturing the same exact thing elsewhere. For example a single missile in Patriot system that can't shoot shit costs over $3 million! Same with salaries. A quick google search says a US soldier is paid starting from $2944 (that is $500 in Russia).
Same with literary everything else. A kilo of potato costs $1.05 in US but it is $0.4 here. LOL

2. A large part of that budget is wasted on adventures. For example when they fly one of their oldest and most useless planes like B-52 for media coverage it costs a ton of money (roughly $70k per hour). This is money wasted.

3. A large part of that budget is wasted on stupid projects. As Secretary of Defense Esper said, they'd wasted billions of dollars on projects such as the Crusader Mobile Artillery System and Future Combat System, etc. all silly projects created by those who scammed the US military out of billions of dollars.

4. What they build using that money is also proven to be useless. I already mentioned their defense systems like Patriot that are completely useless. Their aircraft is also far behind the technology and are useless against modern air defense systems. Same with their radars, navy, etc.

I'm curiously watching to see how US is going to deal with the fact that more than 60% of the world is starting a new economic bloc that is not only not going to use USD but also is going to use a new currency among them.
In other words US is going to export its inflation to Europe mainly not the world.

They don't sell weapons to Ukraine but since the war broke out, Europe, the Middle East, and other countries have increased defense spending and American arms companies have pocketed billions of dollars in arms sales to these countries.

Russia is considered a major rival of the US, if Russia gets bogged down in war, it will benefit the US. Russia will hold regular presidential elections in 2024 and this is a great opportunity to discredit Putin.

The last thing you mentioned: Europe will weaken and they will become more and more dependent on the US for food, energy, weapons.
Inflation is causing a crisis for the American people but has pushed the USD to a new position, affirming the dominant position of the USD. The US dollar appreciates in favor of the US in lending and debt repayment. This is considered a tool to export US inflation to the world.

Considering USA has a bigger military budget than 25 next nations combined, Russia doesn't have a thing they can do about it. Sure USA wouldn't give "all" to Ukraine, there is no way, but they could keep on spending that kind of money and weapons and other stuff to help Ukraine until Russia is broke.

Definitely, it looks like Russia can do this much longer and they are doing financially fine "now", but the moment they realize they do not have too many more soldiers left to send, and too many weapons to attack with, I agree that those asset numbers will force them to stop and USA could prolong this as long as they want. They have the assets for it, and they are not the ones dying.

...There is a cause and effect and there is a ripple effect - There is one thing which happens in one part of the world and it affects the other part of the world.
i was not in the favour - of EU putting bans on Russia to teach them lesson now Russia has taught everyone a great lesson. They wont mess with Russia again

You are lying shamelessly again
I am not surprised, but others may even believe without checking your sparkling humor. We open the encyclopedic dictionary and read:
"The Republic of Texas declared its independence on March 2, 1836, and in the same year wished to join the United States"!
You are just shamelessly, INTENTIONALLY lying, and I'm sure you don't even blush
But okay, these are your problems, and we will return to the story! What happened next? And here is what "... On March 1, 1845, President Tyler signed the bill of accession, and on March 3, he sent it to Texas. Texas recognized the accession, and on December 29, 1845, the Polk officially admitted Texas to the Union as the 28th state. Formal accession of Texas to the Union occurred on February 19, 1846."
This is what reality looks like, and not what you are trying to put through here under the guise of history

And the annexation, this is what Russia did, capturing the Autonomous Republic of Crimea by FORCE (which, by the way, is also terrorism) and holding a fake referendum there. But this will be fixed soon And Texas, since then, has been happy to be part of the USA! At the same time, its GDP significantly exceeds the miserable 1.3% of Russian "greatness"

So that this information is not like classic Russian news fakes, when the words are not confirmed by anything, I will give statistics that you and any other person can easily check:

Even though Russia has nearly 5 times the population of Texas, the economy of the Lone Star State is 400 billion larger. The gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Texas is $58,000, while in Russia it is $8,700.

Threat, you don’t just have to try to slip the GDP (according to PPP), it’s as informative as the average temperature in the hospital

This is a very convenient position, like, for example, "the United States is to blame for everything, therefore", or "Ukraine is under the influence of the United States, therefore ..." (hereinafter any delirium delirium ). Why is it convenient? Well, because it's easier to live this way, you don't have to think that you or your country is doing it wrong. You can not suffer and not start to change, it is enough to repeat "the United States / world government / masons / Jews / Ukrainians / ..." are to blame for everything, right? This is an absolutely well-known psychiatric defensive move, when it is unpleasant for you to realize reality or the truth, such "conclusions" come to "help". And propaganda on them just grows like mold on a rotten vegetable - powerfully and quickly
In a word - you don’t need fantasies, you need to be a realist, although I agree, sometimes it’s not very pleasant

This was is an exception because the benefit of US in this war is not monetary as we know they haven't been "selling" weapons to Ukraine but "donating" it with a huge billion dollar budget dedicated. Also this conflict is causing high inflation in United States which is damaging their economy. There is also a secondary damage as US dollar is being dumped as reserve currency slowly but surely.

The benefit is mostly geopolitical for US as every day Russia is stuck in Ukraine it is increasing the cost for Russia. Every asset they lose, their military becomes 1 asset weaker. This is why US is all for prolonging the conflict.
It also weakens Europe and increases their dependence on US while keeping the dumping petrodollar alive.

Some exciting news coming in from India. Russia has become the top supplier of crude oil to India, replacing Iraq. Saudi Arabia has been pushed to the third position. And rather than purchasing directly from Russia, most of the crude oil is sourced though intermediaries who are based in the European Union (such as Montfort and Wellbred). For the month of June, Russian imports amounted to 1.184 million barrels per day (IOC alone imported around 450,000 barrels per day from Russia). As per Business Standard, Indian refineries are purchasing Urals crude from Montfort at a discount of $8 per barrel when compared to Brent crude market price.