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Russia's economy is collapsing as exports to the sanctioned country plummet in the face of President Vladimir Putin's ongoing, unprovoked war in Ukraine, trade experts suggest.
The "economy is imploding. We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022," Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance trade group, tweeted on Sunday.
Brooks added that data compiled with help from Jonathan Pingle, an IIF researcher, indicated that exports from 20 countries to Russia were down 50% in April compared to the same time a year prior.
But monthly exports from Russia to other countries were up 64% in April compared to the same time a year prior, Brooks said on Monday, as oil and gas sales become a bigger part of Moscow's revenue.
Brooks said the country's account surpluses were "massive," which meant Russia was exporting far more than it was importing.
Russia stopped publishing its trade data after invading Ukraine in late February, so Brooks said the data was compiled using 20 of the country's top trading partners.
The Observatory of Economic Complexity said Russia's top trading partners include China and Germany.
Since the invasion, European and Western countries have unveiled a slew of sanctions packages aimed at crippling Russia's economy.
Ukraine's government has routinely lobbied for harsher sanctions and led a push to try to redirect European Union countries away from Russian gas and oil — a main source of Moscow's federal revenue.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-imploding-exports-under-pressure-ukraine-war-sanctions-2022-5
The "economy is imploding. We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022," Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance trade group, tweeted on Sunday.
Brooks added that data compiled with help from Jonathan Pingle, an IIF researcher, indicated that exports from 20 countries to Russia were down 50% in April compared to the same time a year prior.
But monthly exports from Russia to other countries were up 64% in April compared to the same time a year prior, Brooks said on Monday, as oil and gas sales become a bigger part of Moscow's revenue.
Brooks said the country's account surpluses were "massive," which meant Russia was exporting far more than it was importing.
Russia stopped publishing its trade data after invading Ukraine in late February, so Brooks said the data was compiled using 20 of the country's top trading partners.
The Observatory of Economic Complexity said Russia's top trading partners include China and Germany.
Since the invasion, European and Western countries have unveiled a slew of sanctions packages aimed at crippling Russia's economy.
Ukraine's government has routinely lobbied for harsher sanctions and led a push to try to redirect European Union countries away from Russian gas and oil — a main source of Moscow's federal revenue.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-imploding-exports-under-pressure-ukraine-war-sanctions-2022-5
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They say russian imports are down 50%. While russian exports are up 64%. Therefore russia's GDP will suffer a collapse of 30% by the end of 2022.
As far as I know russia's food production has risen annually which has decreased demand for food imports. Russia's imports should fall naturally as it seeks to become more independent under sanctions. Russia has lived under economic sanctions for so many years I don't know what sanctions they propose to impose on them that have not already been done.
Russia exporting more than it imports may also represent the opposite of a trade deficit. Which could be a good arrangement depending on who you ask.
China and germany being named as russia's largest trading partners is another surprise considering natural gas and oil exports to the EU have typically been named as the route to crashing russia's economy.