Topic: Ryans' log - page 11. (Read 50747 times)
How much did you lose?
Awful, awful trade I made... it bounced to my eventual break even.
Hopefully it will bounce, I'm deep long from 430. Already in drawdown more than profit I made from 460s drop 
Took serious loss on absolute bottom 30 seconds before bounce, I'm fucking idiot
Took serious loss on absolute bottom 30 seconds before bounce, I'm fucking idiot
We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there
It's looking like this old count
maybe we see over extend to at least 420 or maybe even near 400?
It is possible but we could go for the retest of lost support first
It bounced a tiny little bit and then carried on straight back down.
http://www.coindesk.com/price/ now says it's $420, but https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD says it's $430.
We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there
don't worry it's likely to bounce over 435 soon
We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there
maybe we see over extend to at least 420 or maybe even near 400?
It is possible but we could go for the retest of lost support first
maybe we see over extend to at least 420 or maybe even near 400?
If a long wait is required, then it's not a tradable signal.
That's not what he meant with 'confirmation'. It's not a binary indicator like some average crossover, where 'lag' means 'less profit'. From what I understand, you would trade the smaller segments (waves? pardon my non-EW terminology) in between, while waiting for the larger ones to confirm (or not) the larger direction. So the confirmation time on the larger wave wouldn't (necessarily) affect the profitability of your trades in general.
This is true while also mitigating risk. It helps in identifying trends and because of the rules, helps in setting stops and deciding if a trade should be held.
BTW, $442 is broken, so we'll see how this goes.
If a long wait is required, then it's not a tradable signal.
That's not what he meant with 'confirmation'. It's not a binary indicator like some average crossover, where 'lag' means 'less profit'. From what I understand, you would trade the smaller segments (waves? pardon my non-EW terminology) in between, while waiting for the larger ones to confirm (or not) the larger direction. So the confirmation time on the larger wave wouldn't (necessarily) affect the profitability of your trades in general.
more like: "your analysis... not what i hoped for" it's good analysis that's why it hurts to read it as holder (i'm not holder)
Thanks for the update Ryan
IIRC, you used higher level labels in the 10 min chart in order to show things more clearly, so your 3 and 4 labels on that chart are actually the (iii) and (iv) of 3 of V on 240 min chart. Is that correct ?
So we would currently be completing iv of (iii) / starting v of (iii) of 3 of V
BTW excellent analysis so far and I totally agree with your sentiment on where this is headed
Sorry ... couldn't resist
IIRC, you used higher level labels in the 10 min chart in order to show things more clearly, so your 3 and 4 labels on that chart are actually the (iii) and (iv) of 3 of V on 240 min chart. Is that correct ?
So we would currently be completing iv of (iii) / starting v of (iii) of 3 of V
BTW excellent analysis so far and I totally agree with your sentiment on where this is headed
Sorry ... couldn't resist
Quote
all I can picture is grumpy cat saying it all bitchy
So if we hit $433 and move up out of your box, EW says that will be our bottom and we should begin climbing in waves toward a new ATH?
No
If you've been following this thread, you may remember this chart.
I just added a few things to it. The red box marked "iii" (which is what we are heading towards) and the iv (which is the move up out of my box). The box at $397 has been there for a few weeks now. It is the 3 of V and it may need adjustment by the time we are heading there, but it's irrelevant right now. We are a long way from bottoming if this count is correct in it's entirety. If not, then I revise and post it. It has happened a few times, and it will happen again. But until it's invalidated, and as far as this market is concerned, this is the path we are on. Love it or hate it, but right now, it's the truth. We will get pullbacks along the way which are very tradable. That iv for instance... $20/BTC is nothing to bitch about. The 4 will be more like 50 or so.. When we hit the bottom, I'll shout it from the rooftops. Even then, there still remains a possibility that we have further to go after that. When the outlook changes, I will post it.
Sorry if this sounds a bit brash, but every reply you make to me, all I can picture is grumpy cat saying it all bitchy.
If a long wait is required, then it's not a tradable signal.
So if we hit $433 and move up out of your box, EW says that will be our bottom and we should begin climbing in waves toward a new ATH?
No he didnt say that. Lol. You gotta confirm a reversal first and that takes a long time
So if we hit $433 and move up out of your box, EW says that will be our bottom and we should begin climbing in waves toward a new ATH?
The quick update is where I stand for now. The next target lower will break the $442 resistance so hold on tight! It could get bumpy. A preliminary target of ~$433 is in the cards, but this may change if we start to see heavier selling than anticipated once that resistance is broken.
It appears that the market wants a little more push out of this iv so I don't discount another move higher or a longer sideways move before continuing down.
Here is a refined chart of the one I posted a little bit ago together with a couple more targets.
Be careful!
It appears that the market wants a little more push out of this iv so I don't discount another move higher or a longer sideways move before continuing down.
Here is a refined chart of the one I posted a little bit ago together with a couple more targets.
Be careful!
I just got home, and my laptop isn't dead, but it wouldn't start with the toasted battery... So I'm happy about that!
A quick update for now; Wave-iv has hit the target zone, but I'm still on the fence about whether or not we are done correcting. I'll get a full update out after I can really check it out. As of now, upcoming targets still apply.
A quick update for now; Wave-iv has hit the target zone, but I'm still on the fence about whether or not we are done correcting. I'll get a full update out after I can really check it out. As of now, upcoming targets still apply.
I'm away from home and my laptop took a shit with all my charts on it so I can't give any update for about 5 hours... Sorry guys! 
Jump to: