Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 55.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Bugpowder on December 01, 2012, 09:38:58 PM

Check that, I think they disappeared. Sure hope the 1000s of BTC in wins that are currently listed as UNKNOWN also disappear Shocked

I looked at the biggest one, with the payout of 320.01518000. It's http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=4ab33817fa25f8e1fb3c783009f2411f96a15086d47354893c61d9c53d3fb137

The bet tx is http://blockchain.info/tx-index/35187069 and has (as of now) 59 confirmations. There's no way that's going to disappear:

The outputs shown as 'spent' are the ones that have been paid out, and the 'unspent' ones are stuck for some reason.

Yuhfhrh

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=10&status=UNKNOWN

What causes this?

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Quote from: Bugpowder on December 01, 2012, 09:32:10 PM

Check it out... Now there are a bunch of HUGE wins that are all showing up as UNKNOWN.

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=10&status=ALL

And I THINK the UNKNOWN losses from 11-28 have now confirmed.

Check that, I think they disappeared. Sure hope the 1000s of BTC in wins that are currently listed as UNKNOWN also disappear Shocked

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Check it out... Now there are a bunch of HUGE wins that are all showing up as UNKNOWN.

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=10&status=ALL

And I THINK the UNKNOWN losses from 11-28 have now confirmed.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Very nice overnight profit for SatoshiDice!

Quote

Results: 2012-Dec-01 09:51am (up to block 210468)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 49848 | 0 (0.00000) | 49353 | 495 | 304.56 | 0.01 | 55.46 | 304.54 | 0.006
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2470 | 0 (0.00000) | 2366 | 104 | 38.30 | 0.00 | 12.94 | 38.30 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 4100 | 0 (0.00000) | 4056 | 44 | 50.86 | 0.04 | 7.39 | 50.82 | 0.085
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 5220 | 2 (0.00039) | 5173 | 45 | 81.46 | 16.08 | 5.65 | 65.37 | 19.744
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 6457 | 1 (0.00016) | 6416 | 40 | 179.19 | 4.31 | 12.60 | 174.88 | 2.407
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7990 | 3 (0.00038) | 7975 | 12 | 487.77 | 303.43 | 1.29 | 184.34 | 62.208
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 10144 | 10 (0.00099) | 10108 | 26 | 762.84 | 135.65 | 55.64 | 627.18 | 17.783
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 12301 | 23 (0.00188) | 12217 | 61 | 1692.86 | 1293.35 | 48.26 | 399.50 | 76.401
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 15410 | 69 (0.00448) | 15323 | 18 | 1882.77 | 2651.97 | 13.12 | -769.19 | 140.854
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 21204 | 161 (0.00760) | 21029 | 14 | 3615.04 | 3448.95 | 9.35 | 166.08 | 95.406
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 54844 | 845 (0.01541) | 53985 | 14 | 11798.37 | 11104.86 | 1.80 | 693.51 | 94.122
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 18402 | 442 (0.02403) | 17951 | 9 | 5966.30 | 6236.34 | 15.00 | -270.03 | 104.526
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 30796 | 971 (0.03154) | 29819 | 6 | 7535.71 | 6675.98 | 9.24 | 859.73 | 88.591
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 19621 | 909 (0.04636) | 18698 | 14 | 8129.39 | 9274.46 | 24.99 | -1145.07 | 114.086
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 24550 | 1511 (0.06156) | 23034 | 5 | 5433.14 | 4948.32 | 31.20 | 484.81 | 91.077
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 27480 | 2586 (0.09418) | 24871 | 23 | 11902.84 | 12514.52 | 7.01 | -611.68 | 105.139
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 112234 | 13752 (0.12256) | 98456 | 26 | 18575.24 | 16490.94 | 0.00 | 2084.30 | 88.779
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 33441 | 6205 (0.18568) | 27213 | 23 | 14120.32 | 14224.70 | 14.50 | -104.37 | 100.739
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 133629 | 32505 (0.24333) | 101079 | 45 | 83596.62 | 82693.14 | 566.80 | 903.48 | 98.919
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 99910 | 36699 (0.36759) | 63139 | 72 | 82029.49 | 82458.50 | 212.65 | -429.00 | 100.523
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 717698 | 350555 (0.48879) | 366631 | 512 | 414599.87 | 410149.49 | 2923.44 | 4450.37 | 98.927
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 290840 | 144966 (0.49883) | 145648 | 226 | 272018.12 | 265533.73 | 1709.79 | 6484.38 | 97.616
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 199310 | 146559 (0.73569) | 52653 | 98 | 190093.38 | 186524.60 | 704.59 | 3568.77 | 98.123
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 23051 | 18331 (0.79572) | 4706 | 14 | 33068.30 | 33014.19 | 1187.00 | 54.10 | 99.836
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 21373 | 18285 (0.85664) | 3060 | 28 | 32943.52 | 32546.33 | 400.00 | 397.19 | 98.794
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 17817 | 16313 (0.91610) | 1494 | 10 | 28568.17 | 28368.18 | 0.00 | 199.99 | 99.300
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 9489 | 9146 (0.98049) | 182 | 161 | 19556.65 | 19217.02 | 239.21 | 339.63 | 98.263
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1907767 | 770081 | 1135763 | 1923 | 460628.34 | 451091.90 | 165.33 | 9536.43 | 97.930
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 61862 | 30768 | 30872 | 222 | 788402.87 | 778737.32 | 8103.70 | 9665.54 | 98.774
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1969629 | 800849 | 1166635 | 2145 | 1249031.21 | 1229829.22 | 8269.03 | 19201.98 | 98.463
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 19201.98823576 BTC (1.537%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1163.93477500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 18038.05346076 BTC (1.444%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 6570728 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3640768 (55.4%)
Blockchain MB: 2788.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 1490.1 (53.4%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on November 30, 2012, 03:06:25 PM

I bet we'll get a lot of UNKNOWN transactions soon. After ppl read this post Grin

This idea's been around for months. I've certainly posted about it before. I just don't know how workable it really is. My client won't send out a double-spend transaction, and even if I force it, the network won't accept it. Assuming SD is well connected to the bitcoin network, and that the rebroadcast all incoming bets before telling the bettor whether they've won or not, almost the whole network will see the bet before the double-spend attempt, and will reject the double-spend attempt. Unless I've pre-mined a block which spends the bet to myself I don't see how I can 'cancel' my losing bets. And that's hard to do.

Come-from-Beyond

legendary

Activity: 2142

Merit: 1010

Newbie

Quote from: dooglus on November 30, 2012, 03:01:53 PM

The question is whether he's found a way to selectively double-spend groups of losing bets. It's possible in theory using the Finney attack, but this guy has hundreds of presumably double-spent bets.

It doesn't really mater coz SD has no memory. It's the same as he has never made those bets.

EDIT: I think I got u idea:

1. Bet 1 BTC.
2. If u win move to 1.
3. If u lose send the same coins (double-spend attack) to ur other address. If this tx is included into the blockchain then u will lose nothing.

I bet we'll get a lot of UNKNOWN transactions soon. After ppl read this post Grin

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on November 30, 2012, 02:57:04 PM

It's by design. Send the same coins to SatoshiDICE and to ur own address. Repeat this a lot of times. After a while part of transations to SD will be included into the blockchain and the rest will be rejected as double-spent ones. But SD site will keep the entries in its database. Perhaps that guy didn't know that SD pays winnings using corresponding bets as inputs, so if a bet is rolled back the same happens to won coins (or lost but marked with 1 satoshi).

The question is whether he's found a way to selectively double-spend groups of losing bets. It's possible in theory using the Finney attack, but this guy has hundreds of presumably double-spent bets.

Come-from-Beyond

legendary

Activity: 2142

Merit: 1010

Newbie

Quote from: Bugpowder on November 29, 2012, 02:10:29 PM

Has this address figured out how to block losses from appearing in the block chain, or is there a bug?

It's by design. Send the same coins to SatoshiDICE and to ur own address. Repeat this a lot of times. After a while part of transations to SD will be included into the blockchain and the rest will be rejected as double-spent ones. But SD site will keep the entries in its database. Perhaps that guy didn't know that SD pays winnings using corresponding bets as inputs, so if a bet is rolled back the same happens to won coins (or lost but marked with 1 satoshi).

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Bugpowder on November 29, 2012, 02:10:29 PM

Why are all these older losses still pending? Has this address figured out how to block losses from appearing in the block chain, or is there a bug?

All good questions. None of which I'm able to answer.

I looked at the history of that address on the satoshidice site:
http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=18pEcNu&limit=2000&min_bet=0&status=ALL

I tried to see the last 2000 bets from that address but the site only lets me see 1000 bets.

Of those 1000 bets, 660 are "unknown" and only 340 are "confirmed". The breakdown is as follows:

unknown: (660 bets, stake 5275.0, return 3367.47381977, profit -1907.52618023)
confirmed: (340 bets, stake 2727.55, return 2946.78077572, profit 219.23077572)

So it is indeed the case that the cancelled bets were net losers, and the confirmed bets were net winners. What's not clear is whether that's by accident or by design. It certainly is interesting though.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-30 10:13am (up to block 210313)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 48707 | 0 (0.00000) | 48212 | 495 | 301.39 | 0.01 | 55.46 | 301.37 | 0.007
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2463 | 0 (0.00000) | 2359 | 104 | 38.25 | 0.00 | 12.94 | 38.25 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 4088 | 0 (0.00000) | 4044 | 44 | 50.85 | 0.04 | 7.39 | 50.80 | 0.085
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 5209 | 2 (0.00039) | 5162 | 45 | 81.43 | 16.08 | 5.65 | 65.34 | 19.751
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 6419 | 1 (0.00016) | 6378 | 40 | 178.89 | 4.31 | 12.60 | 174.57 | 2.412
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7974 | 3 (0.00038) | 7959 | 12 | 487.73 | 303.43 | 1.29 | 184.30 | 62.213
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 10112 | 10 (0.00099) | 10076 | 26 | 762.43 | 135.65 | 55.64 | 626.78 | 17.793
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 12252 | 23 (0.00189) | 12168 | 61 | 1691.96 | 1293.35 | 48.26 | 398.61 | 76.441
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 13390 | 63 (0.00471) | 13309 | 18 | 1880.73 | 2650.48 | 13.12 | -769.74 | 140.928
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 21187 | 161 (0.00760) | 21012 | 14 | 3614.99 | 3448.95 | 9.35 | 166.03 | 95.407
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 54376 | 839 (0.01543) | 53523 | 14 | 11688.40 | 11103.96 | 1.80 | 584.44 | 95.000
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 18395 | 442 (0.02404) | 17944 | 9 | 5966.29 | 6236.34 | 15.00 | -270.05 | 104.526
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 30429 | 958 (0.03149) | 29465 | 6 | 7422.38 | 6662.54 | 9.24 | 759.83 | 89.763
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 19610 | 909 (0.04639) | 18687 | 14 | 8129.36 | 9274.46 | 24.99 | -1145.09 | 114.086
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 24102 | 1483 (0.06154) | 22614 | 5 | 5428.53 | 4943.85 | 31.20 | 484.67 | 91.072
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 27328 | 2577 (0.09438) | 24728 | 23 | 11890.65 | 12507.36 | 7.01 | -616.70 | 105.186
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 111887 | 13708 (0.12254) | 98153 | 26 | 18149.01 | 16312.37 | 0.00 | 1836.63 | 89.880
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 32857 | 6104 (0.18590) | 26730 | 23 | 13280.19 | 13877.38 | 14.50 | -597.18 | 104.497
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 133151 | 32379 (0.24326) | 100727 | 45 | 82844.52 | 82479.09 | 566.80 | 365.42 | 99.559
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 99376 | 36502 (0.36757) | 62804 | 70 | 81124.16 | 81739.46 | 212.64 | -615.30 | 100.758
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 715329 | 349402 (0.48880) | 365415 | 512 | 413767.24 | 409337.00 | 2923.44 | 4430.24 | 98.929
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 288397 | 143752 (0.49884) | 144420 | 225 | 271008.28 | 264588.99 | 1709.79 | 6419.29 | 97.631
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 198355 | 145854 (0.73566) | 52409 | 92 | 189626.19 | 186069.86 | 704.58 | 3556.33 | 98.125
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 22812 | 18142 (0.79577) | 4656 | 14 | 32933.93 | 32886.07 | 1187.00 | 47.86 | 99.855
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 21274 | 18202 (0.85673) | 3044 | 28 | 32811.11 | 32407.36 | 400.00 | 403.74 | 98.769
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 17007 | 15569 (0.91599) | 1428 | 10 | 28095.99 | 27935.60 | 0.00 | 160.39 | 99.429
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 9472 | 9129 (0.98045) | 182 | 161 | 19556.32 | 19216.69 | 239.21 | 339.62 | 98.263
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1894362 | 765539 | 1126909 | 1914 | 458940.35 | 449350.54 | 165.33 | 9589.80 | 97.910
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 61596 | 30675 | 30699 | 222 | 783870.98 | 776080.27 | 8103.70 | 7790.70 | 99.006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1955958 | 796214 | 1157608 | 2136 | 1242811.34 | 1225430.82 | 8269.03 | 17380.51 | 98.602
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 17380.51709126 BTC (1.398%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1150.24877500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 16230.26831626 BTC (1.306%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 6533803 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3615886 (55.3%)
Blockchain MB: 2772.9 : SatoshiDice MB: 1480.1 (53.4%)

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Now those bets are listed as UNKNOWN.... Hmmm.... 1500 BTC in profit disappearing into the UNKNOWN.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Bugpowder on November 29, 2012, 02:10:29 PM

Do you only count CONFIRMED transactions? Why are all these older losses still pending? Has this address figured out how to block losses from appearing in the block chain, or is there a bug?

I only count bets where both the bet and the matching payment are in my copy of the blockchain. So yes, I'm ignoring unconfirmed bets.

I expect the bets will confirm eventually (if they didn't already). I just woke up and am catching up on the blocks I missed overnight at the moment.

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Hmm... I'm going based on the data on this page

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=4&status=ALL

Everything from block 210017 on, looks like bet amount was 8272 payment amount of 6827. This is including large blocks of PENDING transactions from 24 hours ago where 18pEcNu lost many many bitcoins. Do you only count CONFIRMED transactions? Why are all these older losses still pending? Has this address figured out how to block losses from appearing in the block chain, or is there a bug?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Bugpowder on November 29, 2012, 12:47:46 PM

Looks like a very good day for S.DICE... my excel sheet of over 1BTC bets made since your last chart is showing an additional 1500BTC profit. Can it be true or did I mess something up? Shocked

I don't calculate the profit on just over 1 BTC bets, so I can't be sure - but I would guess you messed something up, because profits are down today for both 'big' and 'small' (over/under 4 BTC) bets:

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-29 10:32am (up to block 210186)

   Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 48161 | 0 (0.00000) | 47666 | 495 | 298.90 | 0.01 | 55.46 | 298.88 | 0.007
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2458 | 0 (0.00000) | 2354 | 104 | 37.95 | 0.00 | 12.94 | 37.94 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 4073 | 0 (0.00000) | 4029 | 44 | 50.34 | 0.04 | 7.39 | 50.29 | 0.086
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 5206 | 2 (0.00039) | 5159 | 45 | 81.33 | 16.08 | 5.65 | 65.24 | 19.776
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 6380 | 1 (0.00016) | 6339 | 40 | 175.74 | 4.31 | 12.60 | 171.43 | 2.455
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7938 | 3 (0.00038) | 7923 | 12 | 487.22 | 303.43 | 1.29 | 183.79 | 62.278
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 10094 | 10 (0.00099) | 10058 | 26 | 762.33 | 135.65 | 55.64 | 626.67 | 17.795
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 12248 | 23 (0.00189) | 12164 | 61 | 1691.96 | 1293.35 | 48.26 | 398.60 | 76.441
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 13354 | 63 (0.00472) | 13273 | 18 | 1880.64 | 2650.48 | 13.12 | -769.83 | 140.935
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 21154 | 161 (0.00762) | 20979 | 14 | 3614.01 | 3448.95 | 9.35 | 165.05 | 95.433
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 54076 | 834 (0.01543) | 53229 | 13 | 11553.09 | 11101.33 | 1.80 | 451.76 | 96.090
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 18382 | 442 (0.02406) | 17931 | 9 | 5966.23 | 6236.34 | 15.00 | -270.10 | 104.527
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 30364 | 956 (0.03149) | 29402 | 6 | 7291.55 | 6661.83 | 9.24 | 629.72 | 91.364
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 19589 | 907 (0.04633) | 18668 | 14 | 8128.99 | 9272.31 | 24.99 | -1143.32 | 114.065
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 24082 | 1481 (0.06151) | 22596 | 5 | 5427.60 | 4937.44 | 31.20 | 490.16 | 90.969
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 27257 | 2574 (0.09451) | 24661 | 22 | 11887.93 | 12507.04 | 7.01 | -619.11 | 105.208
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 111678 | 13680 (0.12252) | 97973 | 25 | 17881.40 | 15814.91 | 0.00 | 2066.49 | 88.443
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 32702 | 6076 (0.18593) | 26603 | 23 | 12988.74 | 13437.41 | 14.50 | -448.66 | 103.454
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 132622 | 32266 (0.24338) | 100311 | 45 | 82574.50 | 82214.84 | 566.80 | 359.65 | 99.564
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 98909 | 36342 (0.36767) | 62502 | 65 | 80820.35 | 81348.26 | 212.64 | -527.90 | 100.653
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 713448 | 348464 (0.48877) | 364476 | 508 | 413065.83 | 408639.08 | 2923.44 | 4426.74 | 98.928
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 285719 | 142458 (0.49899) | 143037 | 224 | 270002.90 | 263641.52 | 1709.79 | 6361.38 | 97.644
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 197804 | 145453 (0.73566) | 52265 | 86 | 189234.99 | 185751.77 | 704.58 | 3483.22 | 98.159
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 22639 | 18009 (0.79598) | 4616 | 14 | 32898.21 | 32849.89 | 1187.00 | 48.32 | 99.853
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 21107 | 18060 (0.85674) | 3020 | 27 | 32723.71 | 32320.44 | 400.00 | 403.26 | 98.768
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 16791 | 15376 (0.91627) | 1405 | 10 | 27730.91 | 27633.76 | 0.00 | 97.14 | 99.650
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 9423 | 9080 (0.98035) | 182 | 161 | 19545.49 | 19205.84 | 239.21 | 339.64 | 98.262
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1886251 | 762120 | 1122237 | 1894 | 457553.91 | 447980.90 | 165.32 | 9573.01 | 97.908
   big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 61407 | 30601 | 30584 | 222 | 781249.05 | 773445.53 | 8103.70 | 7803.52 | 99.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   | 1947658 | 792721 | 1152821 | 2116 | 1238802.96 | 1221426.43 | 8269.02 | 17376.53 | 98.597
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 17376.53247461 BTC (1.403%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1141.93497500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 16234.59749961 BTC (1.311%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 6505827 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3600816 (55.3%)
Blockchain MB: 2760.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 1473.9 (53.4%)

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Looks like a very good day for S.DICE... my excel sheet of over 1BTC bets made since your last chart is showing an additional 1500BTC profit. Can it be true or did I mess something up? Shocked

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

A nice profit for the day, mostly due to the failed martingale I posted earlier:

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-28 09:37am (up to block 210017)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 46997 | 0 (0.00000) | 46502 | 495 | 290.95 | 0.01 | 55.46 | 290.93 | 0.007
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2454 | 0 (0.00000) | 2351 | 103 | 37.94 | 0.00 | 11.94 | 37.94 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 4066 | 0 (0.00000) | 4023 | 43 | 50.33 | 0.04 | 6.39 | 50.29 | 0.086
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 5175 | 2 (0.00039) | 5128 | 45 | 81.28 | 16.08 | 5.65 | 65.19 | 19.788
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 6377 | 1 (0.00016) | 6336 | 40 | 175.73 | 4.31 | 12.60 | 171.42 | 2.455
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7915 | 3 (0.00038) | 7900 | 12 | 483.83 | 303.41 | 1.29 | 180.41 | 62.712
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 10080 | 10 (0.00099) | 10044 | 26 | 761.78 | 135.65 | 55.64 | 626.13 | 17.808
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 12244 | 23 (0.00189) | 12160 | 61 | 1691.85 | 1293.35 | 48.26 | 398.49 | 76.446
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 13335 | 62 (0.00466) | 13256 | 17 | 1878.87 | 2647.97 | 13.12 | -769.10 | 140.934
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 21119 | 161 (0.00763) | 20944 | 14 | 3609.20 | 3448.94 | 9.35 | 160.26 | 95.560
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 53185 | 819 (0.01540) | 52353 | 13 | 11216.16 | 10950.68 | 1.80 | 265.47 | 97.633
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 18375 | 441 (0.02401) | 17925 | 9 | 5966.02 | 6236.30 | 15.00 | -270.27 | 104.530
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 29570 | 930 (0.03146) | 28634 | 6 | 6954.15 | 6442.04 | 9.24 | 512.10 | 92.636
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 19577 | 906 (0.04631) | 18657 | 14 | 8125.01 | 9272.27 | 24.99 | -1147.25 | 114.120
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 24070 | 1480 (0.06150) | 22585 | 5 | 5426.22 | 4937.42 | 31.20 | 488.79 | 90.992
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 27220 | 2571 (0.09453) | 24627 | 22 | 11882.11 | 12505.93 | 7.01 | -623.82 | 105.250
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 111103 | 13610 (0.12253) | 97468 | 25 | 17466.37 | 15313.89 | 0.00 | 2152.48 | 87.676
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 31770 | 5903 (0.18594) | 25844 | 23 | 12120.28 | 12191.39 | 14.50 | -71.10 | 100.587
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 131535 | 31989 (0.24328) | 99502 | 44 | 81773.34 | 81107.95 | 566.80 | 665.38 | 99.186
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 98340 | 36145 (0.36779) | 62130 | 65 | 80502.51 | 81024.83 | 212.64 | -522.32 | 100.649
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 710123 | 346802 (0.48872) | 362813 | 508 | 412459.75 | 408001.43 | 2923.44 | 4458.31 | 98.919
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 283514 | 141344 (0.49894) | 141946 | 224 | 268154.66 | 262055.17 | 1709.79 | 6099.49 | 97.725
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 196511 | 144498 (0.73564) | 51927 | 86 | 188194.58 | 184670.42 | 704.58 | 3524.16 | 98.127
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 22427 | 17843 (0.79610) | 4570 | 14 | 32650.79 | 32650.86 | 1187.00 | -0.07 | 100.000
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 20936 | 17916 (0.85686) | 2993 | 27 | 32611.05 | 32216.49 | 400.00 | 394.56 | 98.790
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 15918 | 14572 (0.91602) | 1336 | 10 | 27320.03 | 27229.04 | 0.00 | 90.98 | 99.667
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 9297 | 8957 (0.98041) | 179 | 161 | 19516.93 | 19177.73 | 239.21 | 339.20 | 98.262
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1872249 | 756529 | 1113830 | 1890 | 454963.62 | 445326.46 | 163.32 | 9637.15 | 97.882
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 60984 | 30459 | 30303 | 222 | 776438.23 | 768507.29 | 8103.70 | 7930.93 | 98.979
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1933233 | 786988 | 1144133 | 2112 | 1231401.86 | 1213833.76 | 8267.02 | 17568.09 | 98.573
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 17568.09364586 BTC (1.427%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1127.46617500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 16440.62747086 BTC (1.335%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 6465756 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3575888 (55.3%)
Blockchain MB: 2742.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 1463.1 (53.3%)

Hippie Tech

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1001

All cryptos are FIAT digital currency. Do not use.

I usually bet .04 - .08btc on '8000', then if I hit a few, I'll throw in the odd .16 - .32 bet.

I once turned .48btc into 7.5+ doing this. Then I got greedy and lost it all because I made too many .16+ bets and one accidental .888. :p

Waay to much fun ! lol

pEACe

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

This looks familiar; another "lessthan 24000" martingale loss, doubling the stake on each loss:

Code:

Tue Nov 27 19:29:28 2012 <24000 209864 7f710e5937b8d7ce:2  1E55c3rfWqEvcME4pusz2HfpuVizuRjRUo BET    16.00000000 LOSE   -15.92050000
Tue Nov 27 19:29:28 2012 <24000 209864 dd2131d4b79068b1:1  128s6PBQsmmBpCYga21HirurLUP9fjD5ic BET    32.00000000 LOSE   -31.84050000
Tue Nov 27 19:31:05 2012 <24000 209863 2d099ca8343a5dd1:1  18yGYQqEfsDV5yWEKUKXHeHA89R6cGbcQo BET    64.00000000 LOSE   -63.68050000
Tue Nov 27 19:29:28 2012 <24000 209864 23404200ecee0770:1  16EtbAx1nWbeaHQoqZBMeNpkh65EpgndzB BET   128.00000000 LOSE  -127.36050000

koin

legendary

Activity: 873

Merit: 1000

Quote from: apetersson on November 27, 2012, 04:33:26 PM

isn't there always a martingale simplification?

http://diceoncrack.com

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 55. (Read 192896 times)