Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 59.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: jamesg on November 05, 2012, 07:01:18 AM

Quote from: Herbert on November 05, 2012, 06:55:43 AM

What is the probability of these two events happening directly one after the other?

I think a better question could be what is the probability the drop happened directly before a dividend payment...

I really can't think that the drop and reversal were both orchestrated by SD to avoid paying a dividend this month. The reversal means they've just put off this dividend until next month. If SD wanted to screw their investors, they'd arrange for a drop and NO reversal, thereby taking the month's profits for themselves.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-05 09:15am (up to block 206611)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 35420 | 0 (0.00000) | 34958 | 462 | 238.64 | 0.01 | 37.27 | 238.62 | 0.008
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2191 | 0 (0.00000) | 2105 | 86 | 32.84 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.83 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3413 | 0 (0.00000) | 3371 | 42 | 45.97 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 45.93 | 0.086
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 4272 | 2 (0.00047) | 4226 | 44 | 75.69 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 59.61 | 21.240
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5562 | 1 (0.00018) | 5522 | 39 | 165.05 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 160.75 | 2.607
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7401 | 3 (0.00041) | 7386 | 12 | 474.38 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 170.97 | 63.958
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9283 | 8 (0.00086) | 9251 | 24 | 751.03 | 124.64 | 55.64 | 626.38 | 16.597
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11351 | 20 (0.00177) | 11274 | 57 | 1671.79 | 1277.34 | 48.25 | 394.44 | 76.406
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12690 | 57 (0.00450) | 12616 | 17 | 1862.15 | 2624.97 | 13.12 | -762.82 | 140.965
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19487 | 147 (0.00755) | 19327 | 13 | 3578.88 | 3435.67 | 9.35 | 143.21 | 95.998
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 42984 | 661 (0.01538) | 42310 | 13 | 10409.05 | 10080.42 | 1.80 | 328.63 | 96.843
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17635 | 423 (0.02400) | 17204 | 8 | 5781.74 | 6016.97 | 15.00 | -235.22 | 104.068
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25366 | 807 (0.03182) | 24554 | 5 | 6533.94 | 6117.21 | 9.24 | 416.73 | 93.622
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18130 | 841 (0.04641) | 17281 | 8 | 7865.59 | 9151.85 | 24.99 | -1286.26 | 116.353
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18142 | 1123 (0.06191) | 17015 | 4 | 5218.05 | 4768.30 | 31.20 | 449.74 | 91.381
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24758 | 2339 (0.09455) | 22399 | 20 | 11499.20 | 11737.28 | 7.01 | -238.07 | 102.070
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 99667 | 12265 (0.12309) | 87378 | 24 | 14606.41 | 13028.51 | 0.00 | 1577.90 | 89.197
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24592 | 4581 (0.18641) | 19994 | 17 | 9942.81 | 10201.00 | 14.50 | -258.19 | 102.597
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 114327 | 27903 (0.24412) | 86398 | 26 | 70332.54 | 68836.16 | 566.79 | 1496.38 | 97.872
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 81124 | 29827 (0.36790) | 51247 | 50 | 60789.94 | 61428.79 | 212.64 | -638.84 | 101.051
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 648336 | 316689 (0.48881) | 331183 | 464 | 380822.62 | 376856.13 | 2923.42 | 3966.49 | 98.958
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 244577 | 121932 (0.49894) | 122451 | 194 | 233953.37 | 229824.74 | 1709.77 | 4128.62 | 98.235
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 174474 | 128394 (0.73624) | 45998 | 82 | 170363.62 | 168653.13 | 704.58 | 1710.48 | 98.996
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17962 | 14270 (0.79503) | 3679 | 13 | 28901.42 | 28886.24 | 1187.00 | 15.17 | 99.947
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16791 | 14364 (0.85668) | 2403 | 24 | 28288.82 | 28264.33 | 400.00 | 24.49 | 99.913
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 9322 | 8548 (0.91766) | 767 | 7 | 23137.49 | 23168.94 | 0.00 | -31.45 | 100.136
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8421 | 8106 (0.98005) | 165 | 150 | 17958.12 | 17678.11 | 239.21 | 280.00 | 98.441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1643114 | 665898 | 975531 | 1685 | 406809.15 | 398814.08 | 157.84 | 7995.07 | 98.035
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 54564 | 27413 | 26931 | 220 | 688492.10 | 683670.57 | 8084.50 | 4821.52 | 99.300
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1697678 | 693311 | 1002462 | 1905 | 1095301.26 | 1082484.66 | 8242.34 | 12816.60 | 98.830
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 12816.60044335 BTC (1.170%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 891.41377500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11925.18666835 BTC (1.089%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 5722319 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3148621 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 2414.4 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1287.4 (53.3%)

jamesg

vip

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1000

AKA: gigavps

Quote from: Herbert on November 05, 2012, 06:55:43 AM

What is the probability of these two events happening directly one after the other?

I think a better question could be what is the probability the drop happened directly before a dividend payment...

Herbert

hero member

Activity: 488

Merit: 500

Doesn't this reversal make it even more suspicious? I mean that steep rise is equally unexpected like the steep loss before. What is the probability of these two events happening directly one after the other?

JWU42

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1000

That was (is) quite a reversal...

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on November 03, 2012, 02:08:39 PM

Quote from: dooglus on November 03, 2012, 01:55:30 PM

SD Profit before fees: 12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)

Small Straight! What odds for such a sequence? Grin

Given that we're bouncing around between 7500 and 12500, there's 5000 different integer values it can be. So about 5000-to-1 against?

But you'd probably be equally amazed if it was exactly 12000, or 12121, or 11111, or 9999, etc. So in that sense it's less amazing.

And without further ado:

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-04 08:59am (up to block 206455)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 34691 | 0 (0.00000) | 34229 | 462 | 235.51 | 0.01 | 37.27 | 235.49 | 0.008
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2164 | 0 (0.00000) | 2078 | 86 | 32.59 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.59 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3388 | 0 (0.00000) | 3346 | 42 | 45.63 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 45.59 | 0.085
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 4002 | 2 (0.00051) | 3956 | 44 | 75.02 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.95 | 21.428
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5542 | 1 (0.00018) | 5502 | 39 | 164.82 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 160.52 | 2.610
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7126 | 3 (0.00042) | 7111 | 12 | 473.52 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 170.12 | 64.073
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9022 | 8 (0.00089) | 8990 | 24 | 750.11 | 124.64 | 55.64 | 625.46 | 16.617
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11089 | 20 (0.00181) | 11012 | 57 | 1670.45 | 1277.33 | 48.25 | 393.11 | 76.467
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12660 | 57 (0.00451) | 12586 | 17 | 1861.59 | 2624.97 | 13.12 | -763.38 | 141.007
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19175 | 147 (0.00767) | 19016 | 12 | 3574.74 | 3435.66 | 9.35 | 139.07 | 96.109
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 42459 | 655 (0.01543) | 41791 | 13 | 10385.82 | 10058.65 | 1.80 | 327.16 | 96.850
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17614 | 423 (0.02403) | 17183 | 8 | 5781.15 | 6016.96 | 15.00 | -235.81 | 104.079
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25337 | 806 (0.03182) | 24527 | 4 | 6533.35 | 6117.18 | 9.24 | 416.17 | 93.630
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18093 | 840 (0.04645) | 17245 | 8 | 7863.03 | 9149.71 | 24.99 | -1286.67 | 116.364
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18112 | 1123 (0.06202) | 16985 | 4 | 5217.45 | 4768.30 | 31.20 | 449.14 | 91.391
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24616 | 2329 (0.09469) | 22267 | 20 | 11487.98 | 11733.97 | 7.01 | -245.99 | 102.141
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 99216 | 12209 (0.12308) | 86983 | 24 | 14460.32 | 12874.54 | 0.00 | 1585.77 | 89.034
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24479 | 4564 (0.18658) | 19898 | 17 | 9932.70 | 10193.12 | 14.50 | -260.42 | 102.622
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 113211 | 27642 (0.24422) | 85543 | 26 | 69563.33 | 68188.38 | 566.79 | 1374.94 | 98.023
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 80470 | 29594 (0.36799) | 50826 | 50 | 59415.28 | 60102.10 | 212.64 | -686.82 | 101.156
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 646462 | 315764 (0.48880) | 330235 | 463 | 379025.84 | 374900.53 | 2923.41 | 4125.31 | 98.912
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 242107 | 120740 (0.49910) | 121174 | 193 | 231883.68 | 228051.89 | 1709.77 | 3831.79 | 98.348
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 173652 | 127780 (0.73619) | 45790 | 82 | 169504.89 | 167671.12 | 704.58 | 1833.76 | 98.918
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17795 | 14141 (0.79524) | 3641 | 13 | 28854.34 | 28846.46 | 1187.00 | 7.87 | 99.973
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16615 | 14219 (0.85703) | 2372 | 24 | 28230.34 | 28205.68 | 400.00 | 24.66 | 99.913
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8881 | 8142 (0.91751) | 732 | 7 | 22936.72 | 22971.12 | 0.00 | -34.40 | 100.150
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8404 | 8090 (0.98013) | 164 | 150 | 17953.13 | 17673.12 | 239.21 | 280.01 | 98.440
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1632142 | 662009 | 968452 | 1681 | 404369.21 | 396442.72 | 157.83 | 7926.48 | 98.040
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 54240 | 27290 | 26730 | 220 | 683544.25 | 678866.69 | 8084.50 | 4677.56 | 99.316
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1686382 | 689299 | 995182 | 1901 | 1087913.46 | 1075309.41 | 8242.34 | 12604.05 | 98.841
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 12604.05221580 BTC (1.159%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 880.08697500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11723.96524080 BTC (1.078%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 5689945 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3128577 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 2399.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1279.1 (53.3%)

Come-from-Beyond

legendary

Activity: 2142

Merit: 1010

Newbie

Quote from: dooglus on November 03, 2012, 01:55:30 PM

SD Profit before fees: 12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)

Small Straight! What odds for such a sequence? Grin

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-03 11:36am (up to block 206304)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 34084 | 0 (0.00000) | 33623 | 461 | 234.74 | 0.01 | 37.17 | 234.72 | 0.008
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2159 | 0 (0.00000) | 2073 | 86 | 32.47 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.47 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3375 | 0 (0.00000) | 3333 | 42 | 45.13 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 45.09 | 0.086
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3997 | 2 (0.00051) | 3951 | 44 | 74.97 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.89 | 21.445
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5539 | 1 (0.00018) | 5499 | 39 | 164.63 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 160.33 | 2.613
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7113 | 3 (0.00042) | 7098 | 12 | 473.41 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 170.01 | 64.088
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9008 | 8 (0.00089) | 8976 | 24 | 746.86 | 124.63 | 55.64 | 622.23 | 16.688
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11069 | 19 (0.00173) | 10993 | 57 | 1670.23 | 1274.84 | 48.25 | 395.39 | 76.327
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12653 | 57 (0.00451) | 12579 | 17 | 1861.54 | 2624.97 | 13.12 | -763.43 | 141.011
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19142 | 145 (0.00758) | 18985 | 12 | 3574.26 | 3434.41 | 9.35 | 139.84 | 96.087
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 41424 | 635 (0.01533) | 40776 | 13 | 10165.27 | 9748.42 | 1.80 | 416.85 | 95.899
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17608 | 422 (0.02398) | 17178 | 8 | 5780.80 | 6004.17 | 15.00 | -223.36 | 103.864
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25327 | 806 (0.03183) | 24517 | 4 | 6533.16 | 6117.18 | 9.24 | 415.98 | 93.633
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18088 | 840 (0.04646) | 17240 | 8 | 7862.01 | 9149.71 | 24.99 | -1287.69 | 116.379
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18091 | 1122 (0.06203) | 16965 | 4 | 5216.69 | 4768.29 | 31.20 | 448.39 | 91.405
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24528 | 2325 (0.09487) | 22183 | 20 | 11463.84 | 11733.31 | 7.01 | -269.46 | 102.351
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 98972 | 12177 (0.12306) | 86771 | 24 | 14432.22 | 12849.31 | 0.00 | 1582.91 | 89.032
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24441 | 4557 (0.18658) | 19867 | 17 | 9929.17 | 10192.73 | 14.50 | -263.56 | 102.654
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 112702 | 27496 (0.24403) | 85180 | 26 | 69093.72 | 67985.85 | 566.79 | 1107.87 | 98.397
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 80169 | 29484 (0.36800) | 50635 | 50 | 59232.02 | 59842.46 | 212.64 | -610.43 | 101.031
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 645878 | 315496 (0.48883) | 329919 | 463 | 378639.60 | 374658.17 | 2923.41 | 3981.43 | 98.948
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 240960 | 120167 (0.49910) | 120600 | 193 | 231488.39 | 227736.60 | 1709.77 | 3751.78 | 98.379
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 172911 | 127223 (0.73612) | 45607 | 81 | 169149.08 | 167252.42 | 704.58 | 1896.65 | 98.879
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17635 | 14010 (0.79503) | 3612 | 13 | 28793.72 | 28778.25 | 1187.00 | 15.47 | 99.946
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16466 | 14098 (0.85739) | 2345 | 23 | 27858.00 | 27860.31 | 400.00 | -2.30 | 100.008
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8668 | 7949 (0.91779) | 712 | 7 | 22282.08 | 22272.89 | 0.00 | 9.19 | 99.959
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8345 | 8032 (0.98011) | 163 | 150 | 17949.37 | 17669.37 | 239.21 | 279.99 | 98.440
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1626230 | 659851 | 964701 | 1678 | 403375.90 | 395340.12 | 157.73 | 8035.77 | 98.008
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 54122 | 27223 | 26679 | 220 | 681371.61 | 677062.09 | 8084.50 | 4309.51 | 99.368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1680352 | 687074 | 991380 | 1898 | 1084747.51 | 1072402.21 | 8242.24 | 12345.29 | 98.862
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 874.04977500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11471.24435971 BTC (1.058%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 5669272 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3118057 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 2390.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1274.7 (53.3%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-02 06:37pm (up to block 206204)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 33452 | 0 (0.00000) | 32991 | 461 | 233.44 | 0.01 | 37.17 | 233.42 | 0.008
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2155 | 0 (0.00000) | 2069 | 86 | 32.36 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.36 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3366 | 0 (0.00000) | 3324 | 42 | 45.00 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 44.96 | 0.087
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3992 | 2 (0.00051) | 3946 | 44 | 74.94 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.86 | 21.452
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5536 | 1 (0.00018) | 5496 | 39 | 164.62 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 160.32 | 2.613
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7107 | 3 (0.00042) | 7092 | 12 | 473.28 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 169.88 | 64.105
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9000 | 8 (0.00089) | 8968 | 24 | 746.74 | 124.63 | 55.64 | 622.11 | 16.690
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11050 | 19 (0.00173) | 10974 | 57 | 1669.92 | 1274.84 | 48.25 | 395.08 | 76.341
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12632 | 56 (0.00444) | 12559 | 17 | 1860.12 | 2624.47 | 13.12 | -764.35 | 141.091
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19098 | 144 (0.00754) | 18942 | 12 | 3573.33 | 3434.17 | 9.35 | 139.16 | 96.106
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 40946 | 624 (0.01524) | 40309 | 13 | 10116.05 | 9682.56 | 1.80 | 433.48 | 95.715
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17594 | 421 (0.02394) | 17165 | 8 | 5777.15 | 6004.03 | 15.00 | -226.87 | 103.927
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25322 | 804 (0.03176) | 24514 | 4 | 6532.75 | 6117.05 | 9.24 | 415.70 | 93.637
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18078 | 839 (0.04643) | 17231 | 8 | 7856.97 | 9149.60 | 24.99 | -1292.62 | 116.452
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18049 | 1119 (0.06201) | 16926 | 4 | 5210.85 | 4752.15 | 31.20 | 458.70 | 91.197
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24485 | 2317 (0.09471) | 22148 | 20 | 11455.38 | 11721.04 | 7.01 | -265.66 | 102.319
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 98805 | 12160 (0.12310) | 86621 | 24 | 14395.56 | 12798.09 | 0.00 | 1597.46 | 88.903
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24397 | 4546 (0.18646) | 19834 | 17 | 9917.27 | 10178.99 | 14.50 | -261.71 | 102.639
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 112431 | 27442 (0.24414) | 84963 | 26 | 68992.38 | 67913.25 | 566.79 | 1079.13 | 98.436
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 79913 | 29389 (0.36799) | 50475 | 49 | 58958.00 | 59654.01 | 212.64 | -696.01 | 101.181
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 645435 | 315286 (0.48884) | 329687 | 462 | 378428.46 | 374554.40 | 2923.41 | 3874.05 | 98.976
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 239363 | 119381 (0.49915) | 119789 | 193 | 230422.39 | 226445.60 | 1709.77 | 3976.79 | 98.274
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 172380 | 126844 (0.73619) | 45455 | 81 | 168154.25 | 166063.07 | 704.58 | 2091.18 | 98.756
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17602 | 13988 (0.79527) | 3601 | 13 | 28777.29 | 28762.44 | 1187.00 | 14.85 | 99.948
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16412 | 14054 (0.85753) | 2335 | 23 | 27599.87 | 27567.24 | 400.00 | 32.62 | 99.882
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8596 | 7886 (0.91815) | 703 | 7 | 22142.70 | 22147.80 | 0.00 | -5.09 | 100.023
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8339 | 8026 (0.98010) | 163 | 150 | 17946.45 | 17666.44 | 239.21 | 280.00 | 98.440
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1621508 | 658183 | 961649 | 1676 | 402499.43 | 394485.79 | 157.73 | 8013.63 | 98.009
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 54027 | 27176 | 26631 | 220 | 679058.25 | 674474.02 | 8084.50 | 4584.23 | 99.325
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1675535 | 685359 | 988280 | 1896 | 1081557.68 | 1068959.81 | 8242.23 | 12597.87 | 98.835
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 12597.87359525 BTC (1.165%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 869.22267500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11728.65092025 BTC (1.084%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 5652371 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3109467 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 2382.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1271.2 (53.4%)

jamesg

vip

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1000

AKA: gigavps

Quote from: dooglus on November 01, 2012, 02:19:47 PM

'They' know we're onto them, and have started losing again to cover their tracks... Wink

Holy $h!t! That is one big turn around. Shocked

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

'They' know we're onto them, and have started losing again to cover their tracks... Wink

Quote

Results: 2012-Nov-01 12:17pm (up to block 206023)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 32953 | 0 (0.00000) | 32492 | 461 | 231.99 | 0.01 | 37.17 | 231.97 | 0.008
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2140 | 0 (0.00000) | 2054 | 86 | 32.13 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.13 | 0.006
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3361 | 0 (0.00000) | 3319 | 42 | 44.99 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 44.95 | 0.087
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3950 | 2 (0.00051) | 3904 | 44 | 74.16 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.09 | 21.675
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5476 | 1 (0.00018) | 5436 | 39 | 163.38 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 159.08 | 2.632
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7102 | 3 (0.00042) | 7087 | 12 | 473.27 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 169.87 | 64.107
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8984 | 8 (0.00089) | 8952 | 24 | 746.72 | 124.63 | 55.64 | 622.09 | 16.691
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11032 | 19 (0.00173) | 10956 | 57 | 1669.86 | 1274.84 | 48.25 | 395.02 | 76.344
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12602 | 56 (0.00445) | 12529 | 17 | 1858.95 | 2624.47 | 13.12 | -765.52 | 141.180
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19055 | 144 (0.00756) | 18899 | 12 | 3571.02 | 3434.17 | 9.35 | 136.85 | 96.168
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 40525 | 619 (0.01528) | 39893 | 13 | 10076.70 | 9667.11 | 1.80 | 409.59 | 95.935
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17591 | 421 (0.02394) | 17162 | 8 | 5777.14 | 6004.03 | 15.00 | -226.88 | 103.927
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25306 | 804 (0.03178) | 24498 | 4 | 6531.74 | 6117.05 | 9.24 | 414.69 | 93.651
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18066 | 839 (0.04646) | 17219 | 8 | 7845.28 | 9149.54 | 24.99 | -1304.25 | 116.625
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18031 | 1118 (0.06202) | 16909 | 4 | 5210.19 | 4752.06 | 31.20 | 458.13 | 91.207
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24194 | 2285 (0.09452) | 21890 | 19 | 11402.53 | 11708.64 | 7.01 | -306.11 | 102.685
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 98050 | 12071 (0.12314) | 85955 | 24 | 13657.08 | 12183.08 | 0.00 | 1474.00 | 89.207
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24342 | 4538 (0.18656) | 19787 | 17 | 9902.79 | 10176.29 | 14.50 | -273.49 | 102.762
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 111218 | 27150 (0.24417) | 84042 | 26 | 68468.99 | 67420.55 | 566.79 | 1048.43 | 98.469
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 79017 | 29052 (0.36790) | 49916 | 49 | 56750.40 | 57315.03 | 212.64 | -564.62 | 100.995
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 644517 | 314828 (0.48882) | 329228 | 461 | 378118.39 | 374253.48 | 2923.41 | 3864.90 | 98.978
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 235837 | 117626 (0.49917) | 118019 | 192 | 224011.33 | 221338.24 | 1709.77 | 2673.09 | 98.807
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 171457 | 126173 (0.73623) | 45203 | 81 | 167564.12 | 165494.31 | 704.58 | 2069.80 | 98.765
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17487 | 13905 (0.79575) | 3569 | 13 | 28492.35 | 28514.57 | 1187.00 | -22.21 | 100.078
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16318 | 13971 (0.85738) | 2324 | 23 | 27420.02 | 27376.00 | 400.00 | 44.01 | 99.839
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8219 | 7528 (0.91671) | 684 | 7 | 21178.55 | 21145.58 | 0.00 | 32.97 | 99.844
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8316 | 8005 (0.98004) | 163 | 148 | 17936.51 | 17656.47 | 239.21 | 280.04 | 98.439
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1611628 | 654218 | 955739 | 1671 | 399638.38 | 391839.38 | 157.73 | 7799.00 | 98.048
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 53518 | 26948 | 26350 | 220 | 669572.33 | 666214.66 | 8084.50 | 3357.66 | 99.499
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1665146 | 681166 | 982089 | 1891 | 1069210.71 | 1058054.05 | 8242.23 | 11156.66 | 98.957
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 11156.66353009 BTC (1.043%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 858.79807500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 10297.86545509 BTC (0.963%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 5617320 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3090200 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 2367.4 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1263.1 (53.4%)

Meni Rosenfeld

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1054

Quote from: nibor on November 01, 2012, 04:41:07 AM

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 31, 2012, 07:32:45 AM

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

1000 seems too big to me.

there have been 1.5m bets in total so 20 seems more reasonable than 1000.

This has very little to do with the number of bets (in particular you seem to want to use the base-2 log but I see no justification for that. Probabilities are not on the same scale as information bits). It's about how many choices there are to choose the period to analyze. With a very simplistic calculation, you have 180 choices for the start date and about 10 choices for the length, which would come up as 1800. Now you have to correct for the correlations, the fact that we didn't actually go and optimize the worst period, etc. Maybe something like 500 or even less is more appropriate but again this is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation. I agree that it is unusual enough to look into it further.

nibor

sr. member

Activity: 438

Merit: 291

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 31, 2012, 07:32:45 AM

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

1000 seems too big to me.

there have been 1.5m bets in total so 20 seems more reasonable than 1000.

Meni Rosenfeld

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1054

Quote from: dooglus on October 31, 2012, 12:22:55 PM

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 31, 2012, 07:32:45 AM

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

It just occurred to me that not all the bets are independent events. You can't tell from the data I provided, but it's possible to place multiple bets within a single transaction. All such bets get the same 'magic number'.

I don't know what impact that would have on your calculations. If you like, I could add a txid to each bet so you can tell which are grouped with which.

It would be a bit more work to take into account grouped bets. But the impact of the fact that those exist is that the variance will be higher, meaning the results are even more plausible.

I think it would be fine to try to carry out a more sophisticated statistical test, and/or ask the operators if they know of anything which could cause a problem. But if not that's also fine, the results are within the realm of possibility.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Oct-31 10:56am (up to block 205877)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 32390 | 0 (0.00000) | 31955 | 435 | 229.18 | 0.01 | 37.05 | 229.16 | 0.008
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2101 | 0 (0.00000) | 2015 | 86 | 29.39 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 29.39 | 0.006
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3210 | 0 (0.00000) | 3168 | 42 | 41.70 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 41.67 | 0.075
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3925 | 2 (0.00052) | 3879 | 44 | 71.75 | 16.06 | 5.65 | 55.69 | 22.391
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5448 | 1 (0.00018) | 5408 | 39 | 160.06 | 4.29 | 8.40 | 155.77 | 2.680
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7068 | 3 (0.00043) | 7053 | 12 | 464.66 | 303.36 | 1.29 | 161.29 | 65.287
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8929 | 8 (0.00090) | 8897 | 24 | 737.83 | 124.60 | 55.64 | 613.22 | 16.888
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10925 | 19 (0.00175) | 10849 | 57 | 1658.28 | 1274.79 | 48.25 | 383.49 | 76.874
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12459 | 55 (0.00442) | 12387 | 17 | 1840.81 | 2621.90 | 13.12 | -781.08 | 142.432
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 18926 | 143 (0.00756) | 18772 | 11 | 3548.87 | 3432.83 | 9.35 | 116.03 | 96.730
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 40265 | 615 (0.01528) | 39637 | 13 | 10024.92 | 9652.85 | 1.80 | 372.07 | 96.289
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17552 | 418 (0.02383) | 17126 | 8 | 5680.16 | 5969.40 | 15.00 | -289.23 | 105.092
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25267 | 804 (0.03183) | 24459 | 4 | 6404.69 | 6116.42 | 9.24 | 288.26 | 95.499
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18013 | 835 (0.04638) | 17170 | 8 | 7762.14 | 9127.40 | 24.99 | -1365.25 | 117.589
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 17885 | 1116 (0.06241) | 16765 | 4 | 5129.26 | 4751.49 | 31.20 | 377.76 | 92.635
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24079 | 2256 (0.09377) | 21804 | 19 | 11072.34 | 11275.17 | 7.01 | -202.83 | 101.832
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 97633 | 12012 (0.12306) | 85597 | 24 | 13373.28 | 11887.83 | 0.00 | 1485.45 | 88.892
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24292 | 4527 (0.18649) | 19748 | 17 | 9412.69 | 9708.52 | 14.50 | -295.83 | 103.143
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 110685 | 27026 (0.24423) | 83633 | 26 | 65814.07 | 64973.82 | 566.79 | 840.25 | 98.723
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 78812 | 28984 (0.36799) | 49779 | 49 | 55512.94 | 56799.35 | 212.64 | -1286.41 | 102.317
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 643802 | 314481 (0.48882) | 328860 | 461 | 376146.46 | 373287.86 | 2923.41 | 2858.59 | 99.240
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 232858 | 116146 (0.49920) | 116520 | 192 | 221882.56 | 219108.13 | 1709.77 | 2774.42 | 98.750
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 171071 | 125890 (0.73624) | 45100 | 81 | 167442.96 | 165379.64 | 704.58 | 2063.31 | 98.768
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17441 | 13873 (0.79602) | 3555 | 13 | 28467.20 | 28490.24 | 1187.00 | -23.03 | 100.081
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16236 | 13903 (0.85752) | 2310 | 23 | 26834.11 | 26711.24 | 400.00 | 122.86 | 99.542
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 7917 | 7244 (0.91580) | 666 | 7 | 20225.02 | 20175.20 | 0.00 | 49.81 | 99.754
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8306 | 7995 (0.98002) | 163 | 148 | 17934.44 | 17654.39 | 239.21 | 280.04 | 98.439
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1604287 | 651548 | 951095 | 1644 | 397936.35 | 390164.85 | 157.60 | 7771.49 | 98.047
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 53208 | 26808 | 26180 | 220 | 659965.53 | 658682.09 | 8084.50 | 1283.43 | 99.806
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1657495 | 678356 | 977275 | 1864 | 1057901.89 | 1048846.95 | 8242.11 | 9054.93 | 99.144
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 9054.93751467 BTC (0.856%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 851.09407500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 8203.84343967 BTC (0.775%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 5590392 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3076136 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 2355.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1257.2 (53.4%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 31, 2012, 07:32:45 AM

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

It just occurred to me that not all the bets are independent events. You can't tell from the data I provided, but it's possible to place multiple bets within a single transaction. All such bets get the same 'magic number'.

I don't know what impact that would have on your calculations. If you like, I could add a txid to each bet so you can tell which are grouped with which.

Meni Rosenfeld

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1054

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 30, 2012, 02:19:06 PM

Quote from: dooglus on October 30, 2012, 02:17:31 PM

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 30, 2012, 02:09:59 PM

It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.

What fields do you want to see per bet?

block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return?

Anything else?

These should be enough.

OK, I made a text file of the bets from the last 1500 blocks or so (since the decline started) here (both the same, the 2nd is gzip compressed)

http://dooglus.rincevent.net/random/details.txt (4955 KB)
http://dooglus.rincevent.net/random/details.txt.gz (299 KB)

In doing so, I noticed that the SD bottom line has dropped further since this morning's stats post. Now it's:

SD Profit after fees: 8122.86383142 BTC (0.772%)

Here's the first 7 lines from the file, where things started going downhill:

Code:

204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,6000,WIN,1.00000000,10.66502266
204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,6000,WIN,1.00000000,10.66502266
204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,12000,WIN,0.30000000,1.60007840
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,1000,WIN,2.00000000,127.93577200
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,512,WIN,2.00000000,249.86550000
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,1500,WIN,1.00000000,42.64659066
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,32000,LOSE,0.50000000,0.00200000

That's block_number,time_and_date,target,result,stake,return

So the first line is a "lessthan 6000" bet winning, and so is the 2nd line. 2 separate bets, both winning:

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=0a4d8505e11b3af56f31016c8d738927a0a62aececc0b0e8c81dd8d471ef8f83
http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=b6723d3c2227c288910088dff5f332fff675014b12e46dddb75278aa1efc8d03

Meni Rosenfeld

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1054

Quote from: dooglus on October 30, 2012, 02:17:31 PM

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 30, 2012, 02:09:59 PM

It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.

What fields do you want to see per bet?

block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return?

Anything else?

These should be enough.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on October 30, 2012, 02:09:59 PM

It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.

What fields do you want to see per bet?

block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return?

Anything else?

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 59. (Read 192918 times)