Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Marketplace>Service Discussion
Pages:
Author

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 57. (Read 192918 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 20, 2012, 01:23:45 PM
#482
Quote
Results: 2012-Nov-20 10:15am (up to block 208791)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    41860 |      0 (0.00000) |   41374 |     486 |     267.52 |       0.01 |    53.62 |    267.50 |   0.007
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2352 |      0 (0.00000) |    2252 |     100 |      35.84 |       0.00 |    11.57 |     35.84 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3687 |      0 (0.00000) |    3645 |      42 |      48.81 |       0.04 |     5.65 |     48.76 |   0.086
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     4893 |      2 (0.00041) |    4846 |      45 |      78.69 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     62.61 |  20.432
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6282 |      1 (0.00016) |    6241 |      40 |     174.37 |       4.31 |    12.60 |    170.06 |   2.474
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7827 |      3 (0.00038) |    7812 |      12 |     482.62 |     303.41 |     1.29 |    179.20 |  62.869
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9869 |      8 (0.00081) |    9835 |      26 |     758.58 |     124.65 |    55.64 |    633.93 |  16.433
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12058 |     22 (0.00183) |   11979 |      57 |    1687.49 |    1292.35 |    48.25 |    395.14 |  76.584
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13180 |     61 (0.00463) |   13102 |      17 |    1876.14 |    2647.47 |    13.12 |   -771.33 | 141.113
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    20806 |    158 (0.00760) |   20635 |      13 |    3596.11 |    3447.69 |     9.35 |    148.41 |  95.873
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    48959 |    756 (0.01545) |   48190 |      13 |   10855.46 |   10531.44 |     1.80 |    324.02 |  97.015
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18068 |    435 (0.02409) |   17624 |       9 |    5888.49 |    6150.25 |    15.00 |   -261.75 | 104.445
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    26250 |    833 (0.03174) |   25411 |       6 |    6657.44 |    6200.05 |     9.24 |    457.38 |  93.130
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19240 |    887 (0.04612) |   18345 |       8 |    8013.39 |    9253.88 |    24.99 |  -1240.49 | 115.480
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    23831 |   1463 (0.06140) |   22363 |       5 |    5409.87 |    4929.73 |    31.20 |    480.14 |  91.125
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    26707 |   2520 (0.09443) |   24166 |      21 |   11802.62 |   12474.03 |     7.01 |   -671.41 | 105.689
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   106970 |  13130 (0.12277) |   93815 |      25 |   16869.12 |   14909.47 |     0.00 |   1959.64 |  88.383
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    27749 |   5202 (0.18759) |   22528 |      19 |   11407.96 |   11682.60 |    14.50 |   -274.64 | 102.407
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   124576 |  30369 (0.24386) |   94164 |      43 |   77785.93 |   78102.10 |   566.80 |   -316.16 | 100.406
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    90881 |  33453 (0.36833) |   57371 |      57 |   76483.37 |   77553.50 |   212.64 |  -1070.13 | 101.399
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   689931 | 336880 (0.48864) |  352547 |     504 |  397750.33 |  393680.89 |  2923.44 |   4069.43 |  98.977
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   270117 | 134706 (0.49911) |  135189 |     222 |  257726.70 |  252404.29 |  1709.79 |   5322.40 |  97.935
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   188797 | 138894 (0.73601) |   49818 |      85 |  184652.31 |  181399.48 |   704.58 |   3252.83 |  98.238
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    20801 |  16541 (0.79574) |    4246 |      14 |   31047.46 |   30972.73 |  1187.00 |     74.72 |  99.759
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    19688 |  16865 (0.85779) |    2796 |      27 |   31966.55 |   31615.66 |   400.00 |    350.88 |  98.902
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    11736 |  10740 (0.91584) |     987 |       9 |   25953.83 |   25878.11 |     0.00 |     75.72 |  99.708
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8975 |   8642 (0.98026) |     174 |     159 |   19371.36 |   19038.77 |   239.21 |    332.59 |  98.283
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1787134 | 723044           | 1062248 |    1842 |  439921.15 |  430945.52 |   160.36 |   8975.63 |  97.960
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    58956 |  29527           |   29207 |     222 |  748727.32 |  743667.58 |  8103.70 |   5059.74 |  99.324
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1846090 | 752571           | 1091455 |    2064 | 1188648.48 | 1174613.10 |  8264.06 |  14035.37 |  98.819
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      14035.37515752 BTC (1.181%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1040.17887500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       12995.19628252 BTC (1.093%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6195896  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3424603  (55.3%)
Blockchain MB:   2621.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1399.0  (53.4%)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 01:16:03 PM
#481
Quote
Results: 2012-Nov-19 10:13am (up to block 208631)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    41654 |      0 (0.00000) |   41174 |     480 |     265.38 |       0.01 |    53.62 |    265.36 |   0.007
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2350 |      0 (0.00000) |    2250 |     100 |      35.74 |       0.00 |    11.57 |     35.73 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3671 |      0 (0.00000) |    3629 |      42 |      48.79 |       0.04 |     5.65 |     48.75 |   0.086
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     4871 |      2 (0.00041) |    4824 |      45 |      78.65 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     62.57 |  20.442
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6273 |      1 (0.00016) |    6233 |      39 |     173.95 |       4.31 |     8.40 |    169.64 |   2.479
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7823 |      3 (0.00038) |    7808 |      12 |     482.60 |     303.41 |     1.29 |    179.18 |  62.871
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9867 |      8 (0.00081) |    9833 |      26 |     758.58 |     124.65 |    55.64 |    633.92 |  16.433
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12042 |     22 (0.00184) |   11963 |      57 |    1687.27 |    1292.35 |    48.25 |    394.92 |  76.594
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13177 |     61 (0.00464) |   13099 |      17 |    1876.03 |    2647.47 |    13.12 |   -771.43 | 141.120
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    20799 |    158 (0.00760) |   20628 |      13 |    3595.90 |    3447.69 |     9.35 |    148.20 |  95.878
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    48810 |    754 (0.01545) |   48043 |      13 |   10852.92 |   10530.09 |     1.80 |    322.82 |  97.025
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18062 |    435 (0.02410) |   17618 |       9 |    5888.19 |    6150.25 |    15.00 |   -262.06 | 104.451
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    26132 |    832 (0.03185) |   25294 |       6 |    6654.42 |    6200.02 |     9.24 |    454.39 |  93.171
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19213 |    886 (0.04613) |   18319 |       8 |    8010.48 |    9246.84 |    24.99 |  -1236.36 | 115.434
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    23804 |   1462 (0.06143) |   22337 |       5 |    5406.96 |    4929.70 |    31.20 |    477.26 |  91.173
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    26614 |   2515 (0.09457) |   24078 |      21 |   11784.04 |   12464.80 |     7.01 |   -680.76 | 105.777
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   106725 |  13097 (0.12275) |   93603 |      25 |   16719.49 |   14494.70 |     0.00 |   2224.79 |  86.693
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    27678 |   5184 (0.18743) |   22475 |      19 |   11341.22 |   11583.33 |    14.50 |   -242.11 | 102.135
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   123843 |  30181 (0.24377) |   93629 |      33 |   77375.63 |   77676.84 |   566.79 |   -301.20 | 100.389
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    90166 |  33170 (0.36811) |   56939 |      57 |   76277.63 |   77232.44 |   212.64 |   -954.81 | 101.252
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   684001 | 333965 (0.48861) |  349535 |     501 |  394517.25 |  390400.86 |  2923.44 |   4116.39 |  98.957
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   268691 | 134003 (0.49914) |  134466 |     222 |  256691.40 |  251456.65 |  1709.79 |   5234.74 |  97.961
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   187906 | 138274 (0.73620) |   49547 |      85 |  184295.15 |  181060.19 |   704.58 |   3234.96 |  98.245
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    20638 |  16420 (0.79616) |    4204 |      14 |   30851.22 |   30772.27 |  1187.00 |     78.95 |  99.744
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    19455 |  16669 (0.85799) |    2759 |      27 |   31854.46 |   31498.32 |   400.00 |    356.13 |  98.882
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    11374 |  10433 (0.91799) |     932 |       9 |   25684.91 |   25615.01 |     0.00 |     69.90 |  99.728
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8954 |   8621 (0.98022) |     174 |     159 |   19359.51 |   19026.88 |   239.21 |    332.63 |  98.282
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1775916 | 717779           | 1056314 |    1823 |  437864.46 |  428994.53 |   160.35 |   8869.93 |  97.974
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    58677 |  29377           |   29079 |     221 |  744703.42 |  739180.79 |  8099.50 |   5522.62 |  99.258
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1834593 | 747156           | 1085393 |    2044 | 1182567.88 | 1168175.32 |  8259.86 |  14392.55 |  98.783
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      14392.55941874 BTC (1.217%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1028.65267500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       13363.90674374 BTC (1.130%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6157750  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3403090  (55.3%)
Blockchain MB:   2605.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1390.2  (53.4%)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 01:07:55 PM
#480
Quote from: aadje93 on November 19, 2012, 09:18:38 AM
Anybody interesed in my system send me a PM. It's still gambling, but I personnally made some nice profits with the system  Cool

Here's some numbers I came up with based on your suggestion of "start at 0.1 BTC and multiply by 1.5 until you win":

Code:
turn  1 | bet   0.10 | total   0.10 | win   0.40 | profit   0.30 | risk 75.59%
turn  2 | bet   0.15 | total   0.25 | win   0.60 | profit   0.35 | risk 57.13%
turn  3 | bet   0.23 | total   0.48 | win   0.90 | profit   0.43 | risk 43.18%
turn  4 | bet   0.34 | total   0.81 | win   1.35 | profit   0.54 | risk 32.64%
turn  5 | bet   0.51 | total   1.32 | win   2.03 | profit   0.71 | risk 24.67%
turn  6 | bet   0.76 | total   2.08 | win   3.04 | profit   0.96 | risk 18.65%
turn  7 | bet   1.14 | total   3.22 | win   4.56 | profit   1.34 | risk 14.10%
turn  8 | bet   1.71 | total   4.93 | win   6.83 | profit   1.91 | risk 10.65%
turn  9 | bet   2.56 | total   7.49 | win  10.25 | profit   2.76 | risk  8.05%
turn 10 | bet   3.84 | total  11.33 | win  15.38 | profit   4.04 | risk  6.09%
turn 11 | bet   5.77 | total  17.10 | win  23.07 | profit   5.97 | risk  4.60%
turn 12 | bet   8.65 | total  25.75 | win  34.60 | profit   8.85 | risk  3.48%
turn 13 | bet  12.97 | total  38.72 | win  51.90 | profit  13.17 | risk  2.63%
turn 14 | bet  19.46 | total  58.19 | win  77.85 | profit  19.66 | risk  1.99%
turn 15 | bet  29.19 | total  87.38 | win 116.77 | profit  29.39 | risk  1.50%
turn 16 | bet  43.79 | total 131.17 | win 175.16 | profit  43.99 | risk  1.14%
turn 17 | bet  65.68 | total 196.85 | win 262.74 | profit  65.88 | risk  0.86%
turn 18 | bet  98.53 | total 295.38 | win 394.10 | profit  98.73 | risk  0.65%
turn 19 | bet 147.79 | total 443.17 | win 591.16 | profit 147.99 | risk  0.49%
turn 20 | bet 219.00 | total 662.17 | win 876.00 | profit 213.83 | risk  0.37%
turn 21 | bet 219.00 | total 881.17 | win 876.00 | profit  -5.17 | risk  0.28%

Looks to me that when (if!) you eventually win, your overall profit is roughly equal to the amount of your winning bet.

So if you win on the 20th turn, you bet 219 BTC, and make a profit of 213.83 BTC.

Of course, it's possible that you lose all 20 bets in a row, and then you lose the whole 662 BTC that you bet.  Or you could play a 21st time and hope to almost break even.

Is this similar to your system?
aadje93
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 09:18:38 AM
#479
Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on November 19, 2012, 05:35:34 AM
Quote from: dooglus on November 19, 2012, 04:38:30 AM
Quote from: ingrownpocket on November 19, 2012, 04:36:09 AM
I hate posts like this... Makes me want to play again...

Me too.  I even started drawing up betting strategies, even though I know they don't and can't work.

What about such an idea: more the others lose, more u win? The premise is that SatoshiDICE doesn't distinguish different players and Statistics says that in the long run SatoshiDice gets only 2%.

A winning strategy should be playing only when SatoshiDICE wins, not loses.

I dont know about losers or winnings etc.

I only know that satoshi dice is a true "random" betting system because they use your transaction id with some hashing etc to make a random number. More random is (in my opinion) not possible Tongue.

And as said, it IS still gambling, but now you bet on the fact that you can have a lose streak of 15-20x. (i can have 20x with my system, starting profits of 0,30 up to 99btc @ 20th loss)

Anybody interesed in my system send me a PM. It's still gambling, but I personnally made some nice profits with the system  Cool


Edit, by profit i mean "winnings - previous bets" so not the actual winning wich is around 400 btc then Tongue
organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 06:00:07 AM
#478
Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on November 19, 2012, 05:35:34 AM
Quote from: dooglus on November 19, 2012, 04:38:30 AM
Quote from: ingrownpocket on November 19, 2012, 04:36:09 AM
I hate posts like this... Makes me want to play again...

Me too.  I even started drawing up betting strategies, even though I know they don't and can't work.

What about such an idea: more the others lose, more u win? The premise is that SatoshiDICE doesn't distinguish different players and Statistics says that in the long run SatoshiDice gets only 2%.

A winning strategy should be playing only when SatoshiDICE wins, not loses.

You'd have to have knowledge of the future, and even then I don't think this would work.
Come-from-Beyond
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 05:35:34 AM
#477
Quote from: dooglus on November 19, 2012, 04:38:30 AM
Quote from: ingrownpocket on November 19, 2012, 04:36:09 AM
I hate posts like this... Makes me want to play again...

Me too.  I even started drawing up betting strategies, even though I know they don't and can't work.

What about such an idea: more the others lose, more u win? The premise is that SatoshiDICE doesn't distinguish different players and Statistics says that in the long run SatoshiDice gets only 2%.

A winning strategy should be playing only when SatoshiDICE wins, not loses.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 04:38:30 AM
#476
Quote from: ingrownpocket on November 19, 2012, 04:36:09 AM
I hate posts like this... Makes me want to play again...

Me too.  I even started drawing up betting strategies, even though I know they don't and can't work.
ingrownpocket
legendary
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 04:36:09 AM
#475
Quote from: aadje93 on November 18, 2012, 12:56:32 PM
expect some nice things hapening on the 24% 1 :  4 bet

I made alot with martingale system Tongue

Started with ~120btc today, and now i got 330. So who's saying martingale doesn't work?....



All done today, i can't show adress because all transactions come in on differen adresses for some reason.... And all of the wallets i check in my client don't seem to have a saldo on block explorer....

EDIT:

i started betting with just 20BTC!!. around 36 hours ago. But only today did a nice betting work. Lost some coins to, so i could have been over 400 if i didn't make stupid bets to 1% and 50%.... (did 25 on 50% and lost  Cheesy)

I hate posts like this... Makes me want to play again...
aadje93
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 12:41:29 AM
#474
Quote from: dooglus on November 19, 2012, 12:11:56 AM
Quote from: smickles on November 18, 2012, 03:26:23 PM
Nice one dooglus Smiley

I hope this is him too:

Code:
Mon Nov 19 02:31:44 2012 <16000 b208551 56b583232681a689 1 133zNWzjEFELzeWk9BqNtq5QR59JWXJmC6 BET   200.00000000 WIN    600.53870000

The only largish <16000 bet so far today.

not me Smiley

I start with 0,1 and do *1,5 each lose

so 0,1 > 0,15 > 0,225 > 0,3375 > 0,50625

got some bets of 29 and won but no higher  then 29btc. And I was very lucky  Cool

edit: about 1600 transactions, so around 800 bets from me Wink
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 19, 2012, 12:11:56 AM
#473
Quote from: smickles on November 18, 2012, 03:26:23 PM
Nice one dooglus Smiley

I hope this is him too:

Code:
Mon Nov 19 02:31:44 2012 <16000 b208551 56b583232681a689 1 133zNWzjEFELzeWk9BqNtq5QR59JWXJmC6 BET   200.00000000 WIN    600.53870000

The only largish <16000 bet so far today.
smickles
sr. member
Activity: 446
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 18, 2012, 03:26:23 PM
#472
Quote from: dooglus on November 18, 2012, 03:06:10 PM
Quote from: aadje93 on November 18, 2012, 12:56:32 PM
All done today, i can't show adress because all transactions come in on differen adresses for some reason.... And all of the wallets i check in my client don't seem to have a saldo on block explorer....

This is probably you:

Code:
Sun Nov 18 09:54:34 2012 <16000 b208469 dc64ebbaa87038f3 1 1CVWr2txMmokXi79bDsAYrmKk8r5HrnLVw BET    12.97463379 LOSE   -12.91026063
Sun Nov 18 09:54:34 2012 <16000 b208469 010326bc1ec8d7f5 1 15r57iHobuuTgkdvWfKQ6JtaUgc5GFAsiF BET    19.46195068 LOSE   -19.36514093
Sun Nov 18 09:54:34 2012 <16000 b208469 4fc3968812896b8b 1 1973JBXBtdNuFea7ybLUdy4KEb3M2CWciv BET    29.19292603 WIN     87.65698221

Sun Nov 18 12:10:38 2012 <16000 b208488 61beb18cd638920c 1 1Du29g3FbWK5AZ73AKPtkm32ZakGywsB4S BET    12.97463379 LOSE   -12.91026063
Sun Nov 18 12:10:38 2012 <16000 b208488 03d05ce7a66a4aa7 1 1ECHuAfKi4tHgg1uUs48EsUu8dAfLf628B BET    19.46195069 LOSE   -19.36514094
Sun Nov 18 12:10:38 2012 <16000 b208488 774a03211ea444ea 1  1F713siXKGHoYG7AUGTQHxdvERUrxpup6 BET    29.19292603 WIN     87.65698221

Sun Nov 18 12:54:56 2012 <16000 b208493 a4a13baa1605cc5a 1 17nNGYSWsdHaJofXDJrx7oht6qdC9E1xGh BET    12.97463379 WIN     38.95838098

Sun Nov 18 14:05:01 2012 <16000 b208500 2ba7f6f7708a4afd 1 1FEgGerEhu7AxPJpfxFa67SpRdLkpGafKE BET    12.97463378 LOSE   -12.91026062
Sun Nov 18 14:05:01 2012 <16000 b208500 6293a2ab23ff5673 1 187hUrZgM8my4RA6w6UHjcqFQYZD6uxUhs BET    19.46195069 WIN     58.43782148

9 bets on lessthan 16000.  4 wins out of 9 - you got pretty lucky...  You would expect on average to only win 2.2 out of 9. (9*16000/65536)

(I'm only listing bets which win or lose more than 10 BTC, so it's possible you made many more smaller bets).
Nice one dooglus Smiley
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 18, 2012, 03:06:10 PM
#471
Quote from: aadje93 on November 18, 2012, 12:56:32 PM
All done today, i can't show adress because all transactions come in on differen adresses for some reason.... And all of the wallets i check in my client don't seem to have a saldo on block explorer....

This is probably you:

Code:
Sun Nov 18 09:54:34 2012 <16000 b208469 dc64ebbaa87038f3 1 1CVWr2txMmokXi79bDsAYrmKk8r5HrnLVw BET    12.97463379 LOSE   -12.91026063
Sun Nov 18 09:54:34 2012 <16000 b208469 010326bc1ec8d7f5 1 15r57iHobuuTgkdvWfKQ6JtaUgc5GFAsiF BET    19.46195068 LOSE   -19.36514093
Sun Nov 18 09:54:34 2012 <16000 b208469 4fc3968812896b8b 1 1973JBXBtdNuFea7ybLUdy4KEb3M2CWciv BET    29.19292603 WIN     87.65698221

Sun Nov 18 12:10:38 2012 <16000 b208488 61beb18cd638920c 1 1Du29g3FbWK5AZ73AKPtkm32ZakGywsB4S BET    12.97463379 LOSE   -12.91026063
Sun Nov 18 12:10:38 2012 <16000 b208488 03d05ce7a66a4aa7 1 1ECHuAfKi4tHgg1uUs48EsUu8dAfLf628B BET    19.46195069 LOSE   -19.36514094
Sun Nov 18 12:10:38 2012 <16000 b208488 774a03211ea444ea 1  1F713siXKGHoYG7AUGTQHxdvERUrxpup6 BET    29.19292603 WIN     87.65698221

Sun Nov 18 12:54:56 2012 <16000 b208493 a4a13baa1605cc5a 1 17nNGYSWsdHaJofXDJrx7oht6qdC9E1xGh BET    12.97463379 WIN     38.95838098

Sun Nov 18 14:05:01 2012 <16000 b208500 2ba7f6f7708a4afd 1 1FEgGerEhu7AxPJpfxFa67SpRdLkpGafKE BET    12.97463378 LOSE   -12.91026062
Sun Nov 18 14:05:01 2012 <16000 b208500 6293a2ab23ff5673 1 187hUrZgM8my4RA6w6UHjcqFQYZD6uxUhs BET    19.46195069 WIN     58.43782148

9 bets on lessthan 16000.  4 wins out of 9 - you got pretty lucky...  You would expect on average to only win 2.2 out of 9. (9*16000/65536)

(I'm only listing bets which win or lose more than 10 BTC, so it's possible you made many more smaller bets).
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 18, 2012, 02:56:36 PM
#470
Quote
Results: 2012-Nov-18 11:55am (up to block 208512)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    41210 |      0 (0.00000) |   40730 |     480 |     263.39 |       0.01 |    53.62 |    263.37 |   0.007
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2332 |      0 (0.00000) |    2233 |      99 |      34.92 |       0.00 |    10.67 |     34.92 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3636 |      0 (0.00000) |    3594 |      42 |      48.65 |       0.04 |     5.65 |     48.60 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     4859 |      2 (0.00042) |    4812 |      45 |      78.54 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     62.46 |  20.471
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6261 |      1 (0.00016) |    6221 |      39 |     172.43 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    168.12 |   2.498
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7809 |      3 (0.00038) |    7794 |      12 |     479.47 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    176.07 |  63.278
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9860 |      8 (0.00081) |    9826 |      26 |     758.42 |     124.65 |    55.64 |    633.76 |  16.436
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12035 |     22 (0.00184) |   11956 |      57 |    1687.15 |    1292.35 |    48.25 |    394.80 |  76.599
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13166 |     61 (0.00464) |   13088 |      17 |    1875.61 |    2647.47 |    13.12 |   -771.85 | 141.152
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    20779 |    158 (0.00761) |   20608 |      13 |    3594.52 |    3447.69 |     9.35 |    146.83 |  95.915
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    48626 |    753 (0.01549) |   47860 |      13 |   10849.41 |   10530.03 |     1.80 |    319.37 |  97.056
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18050 |    435 (0.02411) |   17606 |       9 |    5887.90 |    6150.25 |    15.00 |   -262.35 | 104.456
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    26047 |    831 (0.03191) |   25210 |       6 |    6650.79 |    6196.82 |     9.24 |    453.97 |  93.174
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19195 |    886 (0.04618) |   18301 |       8 |    8009.96 |    9246.84 |    24.99 |  -1236.87 | 115.442
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    23786 |   1462 (0.06148) |   22319 |       5 |    5406.55 |    4929.70 |    31.20 |    476.85 |  91.180
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    26552 |   2510 (0.09461) |   24021 |      21 |   11782.56 |   12464.03 |     7.01 |   -681.46 | 105.784
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   106520 |  13081 (0.12283) |   93414 |      25 |   16468.12 |   14322.31 |     0.00 |   2145.80 |  86.970
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    27289 |   5106 (0.18724) |   22164 |      19 |   11269.54 |   11524.34 |    14.50 |   -254.79 | 102.261
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   123308 |  30042 (0.24370) |   93233 |      33 |   76825.42 |   76525.37 |   566.79 |    300.05 |  99.609
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    89665 |  32972 (0.36796) |   56636 |      57 |   76188.01 |   77099.11 |   212.64 |   -911.10 | 101.196
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   679739 | 331867 (0.48859) |  347371 |     501 |  392848.90 |  388591.84 |  2923.44 |   4257.06 |  98.916
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   266819 | 133058 (0.49910) |  133539 |     222 |  256225.01 |  250932.38 |  1709.79 |   5292.63 |  97.934
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   187042 | 137604 (0.73602) |   49353 |      85 |  184015.01 |  180781.95 |   704.58 |   3233.06 |  98.243
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    20489 |  16285 (0.79536) |    4190 |      14 |   30773.99 |   30684.19 |  1187.00 |     89.80 |  99.708
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    19284 |  16509 (0.85730) |    2748 |      27 |   31789.88 |   31432.63 |   400.00 |    357.24 |  98.876
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    11076 |  10150 (0.91714) |     917 |       9 |   25536.21 |   25482.76 |     0.00 |     53.45 |  99.791
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8889 |   8560 (0.98041) |     171 |     158 |   19276.14 |   18949.18 |   239.21 |    326.96 |  98.304
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1765799 | 713073           | 1050905 |    1821 |  436169.16 |  427357.46 |   159.45 |   8811.69 |  97.980
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    58524 |  29293           |   29010 |     221 |  742627.50 |  736322.37 |  8099.50 |   6305.13 |  99.151
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1824323 | 742366           | 1079915 |    2042 | 1178796.66 | 1163679.83 |  8258.96 |  15116.83 |  98.718
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      15116.83352564 BTC (1.282%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1018.34207500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       14098.49145064 BTC (1.196%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6125086  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3384044  (55.2%)
Blockchain MB:   2591.2  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1382.6  (53.4%)

aadje93
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 18, 2012, 12:56:32 PM
#469
expect some nice things hapening on the 24% 1 :  4 bet

I made alot with martingale system Tongue

Started with ~120btc today, and now i got 330. So who's saying martingale doesn't work?....



All done today, i can't show adress because all transactions come in on differen adresses for some reason.... And all of the wallets i check in my client don't seem to have a saldo on block explorer....

EDIT:

i started betting with just 20BTC!!. around 36 hours ago. But only today did a nice betting work. Lost some coins to, so i could have been over 400 if i didn't make stupid bets to 1% and 50%.... (did 25 on 50% and lost  Cheesy)
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 17, 2012, 11:54:41 AM
#468
Quote
Results: 2012-Nov-17 08:52am (up to block 208342)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    40982 |      0 (0.00000) |   40508 |     474 |     261.95 |       0.01 |    53.12 |    261.94 |   0.007
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2323 |      0 (0.00000) |    2227 |      96 |      34.74 |       0.00 |    10.46 |     34.74 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3603 |      0 (0.00000) |    3561 |      42 |      48.40 |       0.04 |     5.65 |     48.35 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     4855 |      2 (0.00042) |    4808 |      45 |      78.49 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     62.41 |  20.486
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6216 |      1 (0.00016) |    6176 |      39 |     172.28 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    167.98 |   2.500
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7805 |      3 (0.00038) |    7790 |      12 |     479.42 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    176.01 |  63.286
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9853 |      8 (0.00081) |    9819 |      26 |     758.28 |     124.65 |    55.64 |    633.62 |  16.439
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12031 |     22 (0.00184) |   11952 |      57 |    1687.09 |    1292.35 |    48.25 |    394.74 |  76.602
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13161 |     61 (0.00464) |   13083 |      17 |    1875.55 |    2647.47 |    13.12 |   -771.91 | 141.156
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    20742 |    158 (0.00762) |   20571 |      13 |    3593.66 |    3447.69 |     9.35 |    145.96 |  95.938
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    48417 |    749 (0.01547) |   47655 |      13 |   10836.02 |   10526.72 |     1.80 |    309.30 |  97.146
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17946 |    432 (0.02408) |   17505 |       9 |    5791.35 |    6021.89 |    15.00 |   -230.54 | 103.981
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25979 |    830 (0.03196) |   25143 |       6 |    6647.36 |    6196.49 |     9.24 |    450.87 |  93.217
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19182 |    886 (0.04621) |   18288 |       8 |    8008.60 |    9246.83 |    24.99 |  -1238.23 | 115.461
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    23760 |   1459 (0.06142) |   22296 |       5 |    5405.87 |    4928.77 |    31.20 |    477.10 |  91.174
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    26335 |   2485 (0.09444) |   23829 |      21 |   11745.66 |   12435.32 |     7.01 |   -689.65 | 105.872
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   106291 |  13062 (0.12292) |   93204 |      25 |   16423.82 |   14297.61 |     0.00 |   2126.20 |  87.054
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    25868 |   4820 (0.18647) |   21029 |      19 |   10435.31 |   10462.93 |    14.50 |    -27.62 | 100.265
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   122129 |  29731 (0.24351) |   92365 |      33 |   75940.25 |   75415.18 |   566.79 |    525.07 |  99.309
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    89316 |  32853 (0.36805) |   56409 |      54 |   76014.81 |   76933.43 |   212.64 |   -918.62 | 101.208
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   675928 | 329982 (0.48855) |  345445 |     501 |  392201.95 |  387858.54 |  2923.44 |   4343.41 |  98.893
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   264887 | 132072 (0.49902) |  132593 |     222 |  255373.54 |  250041.57 |  1709.79 |   5331.97 |  97.912
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   186220 | 136973 (0.73588) |   49162 |      85 |  183540.15 |  180295.79 |   704.58 |   3244.36 |  98.232
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    20350 |  16163 (0.79480) |    4173 |      14 |   30738.35 |   30648.11 |  1187.00 |     90.24 |  99.706
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    19048 |  16303 (0.85711) |    2718 |      27 |   31682.97 |   31334.09 |   400.00 |    348.87 |  98.899
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    10647 |   9748 (0.91634) |     890 |       9 |   25193.64 |   25158.26 |     0.00 |     35.38 |  99.860
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8826 |   8497 (0.98027) |     171 |     158 |   19199.11 |   18871.84 |   239.21 |    327.27 |  98.295
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1754390 | 708129           | 1044452 |    1809 |  433307.96 |  424517.44 |   158.74 |   8790.51 |  97.971
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    58310 |  29171           |   28918 |     221 |  740860.82 |  733992.03 |  8099.50 |   6868.78 |  99.073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1812700 | 737300           | 1073370 |    2030 | 1174168.78 | 1158509.48 |  8258.24 |  15659.30 |  98.666
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      15659.30171605 BTC (1.334%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1006.69457500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       14652.60714105 BTC (1.248%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6087954  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3362162  (55.2%)
Blockchain MB:   2575.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1373.6  (53.3%)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 16, 2012, 12:13:09 PM
#467
Quote
Results: 2012-Nov-16 09:04am (up to block 208203)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    40502 |      0 (0.00000) |   40029 |     473 |     254.81 |       0.01 |    53.09 |    254.79 |   0.008
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2312 |      0 (0.00000) |    2216 |      96 |      34.55 |       0.00 |    10.46 |     34.55 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3591 |      0 (0.00000) |    3549 |      42 |      48.22 |       0.04 |     5.65 |     48.17 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     4838 |      2 (0.00042) |    4792 |      44 |      78.26 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     62.19 |  20.544
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6144 |      1 (0.00016) |    6104 |      39 |     171.15 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    166.84 |   2.515
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7787 |      3 (0.00039) |    7772 |      12 |     478.86 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    175.45 |  63.359
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9833 |      8 (0.00082) |    9799 |      26 |     757.97 |     124.65 |    55.64 |    633.31 |  16.446
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12002 |     22 (0.00184) |   11923 |      57 |    1686.76 |    1292.35 |    48.25 |    394.41 |  76.617
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13147 |     61 (0.00465) |   13069 |      17 |    1875.27 |    2647.47 |    13.12 |   -772.20 | 141.178
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    20700 |    158 (0.00764) |   20529 |      13 |    3592.07 |    3447.68 |     9.35 |    144.39 |  95.980
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    48088 |    747 (0.01554) |   47328 |      13 |   10821.23 |   10525.35 |     1.80 |    295.88 |  97.266
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17929 |    431 (0.02405) |   17489 |       9 |    5790.94 |    6020.61 |    15.00 |   -229.67 | 103.966
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25803 |    822 (0.03186) |   24975 |       6 |    6557.95 |    6158.36 |     9.24 |    399.58 |  93.907
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19142 |    883 (0.04615) |   18251 |       8 |    7990.22 |    9224.15 |    24.99 |  -1233.92 | 115.443
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    23651 |   1455 (0.06153) |   22191 |       5 |    5368.79 |    4911.60 |    31.20 |    457.19 |  91.484
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    26246 |   2479 (0.09453) |   23746 |      21 |   11694.92 |   12423.74 |     7.01 |   -728.81 | 106.232
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   105917 |  13021 (0.12296) |   92871 |      25 |   16202.20 |   14219.73 |     0.00 |   1982.46 |  87.764
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    25657 |   4776 (0.18629) |   20862 |      19 |   10220.86 |   10386.33 |    14.50 |   -165.46 | 101.619
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   121644 |  29610 (0.24348) |   92002 |      32 |   75268.99 |   74234.27 |   566.79 |   1034.71 |  98.625
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    88674 |  32622 (0.36811) |   55999 |      53 |   75046.96 |   76095.77 |   212.64 |  -1048.80 | 101.398
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   672654 | 328374 (0.48854) |  343779 |     501 |  391110.93 |  386650.19 |  2923.44 |   4460.73 |  98.859
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   261834 | 130516 (0.49889) |  131096 |     222 |  254010.04 |  249261.47 |  1709.79 |   4748.56 |  98.131
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   185222 | 136230 (0.73583) |   48907 |      85 |  183215.21 |  179989.38 |   704.58 |   3225.82 |  98.239
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    20193 |  16031 (0.79444) |    4148 |      14 |   30670.82 |   30571.70 |  1187.00 |     99.11 |  99.677
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    18874 |  16153 (0.85706) |    2694 |      27 |   31502.83 |   31143.62 |   400.00 |    359.21 |  98.860
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    10472 |   9600 (0.91752) |     863 |       9 |   24803.60 |   24765.20 |     0.00 |     38.39 |  99.845
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8796 |   8469 (0.98021) |     171 |     156 |   19165.65 |   18838.24 |   239.21 |    327.40 |  98.292
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1743581 | 703437           | 1038341 |    1803 |  431260.50 |  422560.71 |   158.71 |   8699.78 |  97.983
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    58071 |  29037           |   28813 |     221 |  737159.68 |  730695.10 |  8099.50 |   6464.57 |  99.123
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1801652 | 732474           | 1067154 |    2024 | 1168420.18 | 1153255.82 |  8258.21 |  15164.36 |  98.702
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      15164.36131862 BTC (1.298%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         995.61667500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       14168.74464362 BTC (1.213%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6053191  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3341781  (55.2%)
Blockchain MB:   2558.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1365.0  (53.4%)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 15, 2012, 12:02:23 PM
#466
Quote
Results: 2012-Nov-15 08:25am (up to block 208058)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    40211 |      0 (0.00000) |   39742 |     469 |     252.71 |       0.01 |    52.63 |    252.69 |   0.008
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2294 |      0 (0.00000) |    2198 |      96 |      34.31 |       0.00 |    10.46 |     34.30 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3563 |      0 (0.00000) |    3521 |      42 |      47.80 |       0.04 |     5.65 |     47.76 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     4820 |      2 (0.00042) |    4774 |      44 |      77.98 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     61.90 |  20.618
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6087 |      1 (0.00017) |    6047 |      39 |     170.80 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    166.50 |   2.520
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7769 |      3 (0.00039) |    7754 |      12 |     478.59 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    175.19 |  63.394
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9742 |      8 (0.00082) |    9708 |      26 |     756.99 |     124.65 |    55.64 |    632.33 |  16.468
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    11981 |     22 (0.00185) |   11902 |      57 |    1682.80 |    1292.33 |    48.25 |    390.47 |  76.796
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13129 |     59 (0.00450) |   13053 |      17 |    1875.07 |    2637.47 |    13.12 |   -762.40 | 140.660
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    20623 |    155 (0.00752) |   20455 |      13 |    3590.92 |    3442.69 |     9.35 |    148.22 |  95.872
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    47215 |    727 (0.01540) |   46475 |      13 |   10807.87 |   10507.99 |     1.80 |    299.88 |  97.225
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17865 |    428 (0.02397) |   17428 |       9 |    5789.50 |    6018.48 |    15.00 |   -228.98 | 103.955
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25768 |    819 (0.03179) |   24943 |       6 |    6557.16 |    6156.77 |     9.24 |    400.39 |  93.894
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19113 |    881 (0.04611) |   18224 |       8 |    7988.52 |    9223.30 |    24.99 |  -1234.77 | 115.457
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    23595 |   1449 (0.06142) |   22141 |       5 |    5355.14 |    4878.12 |    31.20 |    477.01 |  91.092
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    26168 |   2471 (0.09450) |   23676 |      21 |   11662.87 |   12384.00 |     7.01 |   -721.13 | 106.183
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   105027 |  12914 (0.12299) |   92088 |      25 |   16170.07 |   14186.49 |     0.00 |   1983.57 |  87.733
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    25550 |   4759 (0.18640) |   20772 |      19 |   10203.32 |   10365.74 |    14.50 |   -162.42 | 101.592
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   120593 |  29367 (0.24359) |   91194 |      32 |   74705.13 |   73599.74 |   566.79 |   1105.39 |  98.520
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    87911 |  32343 (0.36813) |   55515 |      53 |   74648.80 |   75661.12 |   212.64 |  -1012.31 | 101.356
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   669145 | 326685 (0.48858) |  341959 |     501 |  389592.85 |  385108.41 |  2923.44 |   4484.43 |  98.849
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   259897 | 129534 (0.49883) |  130141 |     222 |  251233.95 |  246716.83 |  1709.79 |   4517.12 |  98.202
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   184606 | 135781 (0.73586) |   48740 |      85 |  183086.99 |  179867.80 |   704.58 |   3219.19 |  98.242
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    20011 |  15885 (0.79437) |    4112 |      14 |   30645.24 |   30548.42 |  1187.00 |     96.81 |  99.684
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    18585 |  15901 (0.85683) |    2657 |      27 |   31427.77 |   31071.11 |   400.00 |    356.66 |  98.865
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    10323 |   9453 (0.91652) |     861 |       9 |   24792.66 |   24754.83 |     0.00 |     37.82 |  99.847
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8734 |   8407 (0.98007) |     171 |     156 |   19157.75 |   18830.34 |   239.21 |    327.41 |  98.291
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1732551 | 699154           | 1031598 |    1799 |  428819.67 |  420200.67 |   158.25 |   8619.00 |  97.990
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    57774 |  28900           |   28653 |     221 |  733974.01 |  727499.90 |  8099.50 |   6474.10 |  99.118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1790325 | 728054           | 1060251 |    2020 | 1162793.68 | 1147700.58 |  8257.75 |  15093.10 |  98.702
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      15093.10104673 BTC (1.298%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         984.27757500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       14108.82347173 BTC (1.213%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6016257  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3321142  (55.2%)
Blockchain MB:   2542.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1356.5  (53.4%)

runlinux
hero member
Activity: 566
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 15, 2012, 10:46:48 AM
#465
Yeah, you are right. My math was showing in the spreadsheet as the number you gave me. It's been a rough morning.
kidgorgeous
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 15, 2012, 10:43:24 AM
#464
Quote
That is a 0.47017% chance of loosing again based on 48.8281% odds, correct? (0.488281^8)

Not quite, 0.488281^8 = 0.32312%. But you ended up with the right number anyways. you have a 48.8281% chance of winning, and a 51.1719% chance of losing, so losing 8 in a row would be (0.511719^8) or 0.47017%
runlinux
hero member
Activity: 566
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
November 15, 2012, 08:17:11 AM
#463
Bleh... Lost 8 in a row... That is a 0.47017% chance of loosing again based on 48.8281% odds, correct? (0.488281^8)

Wiped me out of my "massive" 2.7 BTC fortune...  Cheesy

Update: Make that 9 in a row... I'm done. lol
Pages:
Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Marketplace>Service Discussion
Jump to: