SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game - page 249.

fireduck

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Quote from: dooglus on June 29, 2012, 01:14:04 PM

Can you clear something up for me? If I bet 2 BTC on Teh Beast, do I get (a) the currently advertised odds (b) the odds recalculated as if my 2 BTC was already in the pot or (c) different odds for my two spins?

It looks to me like it's (b), which means I'm better off sending two separate 1 BTC bets in 2 different blocks - because that way my first bet gets better odds. Is that right?

You get the odds recalculated for the block in which your bet is confirmed. So if you are the only playing, splitting your bets gets you slightly better odds. The risk is that someone else could come along and win.

fireduck

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Activity: 392

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Quote from: dooglus on June 29, 2012, 01:14:04 PM

Your job seems to have cleaned up most of the old pending bets. What's going on with this one?

03a804d79a24ea92112c968652474911666ee57a5b67b10cd265c2d5c2393843

Its 3rd output (output 2, counting from zero) is unspent, whereas all the rest are spent. That's the oldest pending standard transaction now - and it's only 2 days old.

That got missed, maybe it wasn't old enough when I ran my program. I was basically deleting transactions that haven't confirmed in over two days.
It is handled now.

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/10905279/8140c939e8437d46d8a3536dd72e88be54d3a4c5a31f0542788186218141c46e

dooglus

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Quote from: fireduck on June 28, 2012, 11:58:27 PM

Yeah, the different progressives now have some different tuning parameters. I have teh beast setup to not grow very much but to always give a good expected return.

Can you clear something up for me? If I bet 2 BTC on Teh Beast, do I get (a) the currently advertised odds (b) the odds recalculated as if my 2 BTC was already in the pot or (c) different odds for my two spins?

It looks to me like it's (b), which means I'm better off sending two separate 1 BTC bets in 2 different blocks - because that way my first bet gets better odds. Is that right?

Quote from: fireduck on June 28, 2012, 11:58:27 PM

Anyways, I tracked down one of the lost transactions you posted. It looks like some things were marked in the database in such a way that my software lost track of the fact that the transaction to pay them never confirmed and wasn't being tracked. I have a job to clean that up that I'll run overnight which should fix the others.

Your job seems to have cleaned up most of the old pending bets. What's going on with this one?

03a804d79a24ea92112c968652474911666ee57a5b67b10cd265c2d5c2393843

Its 3rd output (output 2, counting from zero) is unspent, whereas all the rest are spent. That's the oldest pending standard transaction now - and it's only 2 days old.

dooglus

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Quote from: fireduck on June 28, 2012, 11:58:27 PM

Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I'm not sure exactly how things failed in such a way where my view didn't show any problem.

Note that Fredyy has been trying to bring it to your attention for a while:

Quote from: Fredyy on June 27, 2012, 10:49:55 AM

Quote from: Fredyy on June 24, 2012, 09:13:23 AM

My transaction has not been processed!

https://blockchain.info/tx-index/10370227/09c0eb6102a8190b8261e0f03ec557ce81a2e37e87231199b4195cd2f0264279
http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=09c0eb6102a8190b8261e0f03ec557ce81a2e37e87231199b4195cd2f0264279
http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=09c0eb6102a8190b8261e0f03ec557ce81a2e37e87231199b4195cd2f0264279

still not processed

His is the last but one on my list.

fireduck

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Activity: 392

Merit: 251

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 11:15:57 PM

It looks like you've changed it again since writing that message. I was just going to say that it's unlikely to grow very fast when you're offering a 1% chance to turn 1 BTC into 27 BTC. But now I see it's a 3.7% chance...

Also, did the re-import finish? I see that the outstanding bets are mostly still outstanding.

For example, look at:

010bc3ccaab3394915e6e1ecd026c126572f21501d6d89ca5efc7f3970df554d (2012-06-16 23:39:32)

It makes 10 bets in one transaction, but only 9 of them were processed.

And:

0e67d2804b78cd32fcac334b807b62bff7d4d0d3d7af293a42d80a29be031f0a (2012-06-17 08:39:55)

only makes one bet, but it wasn't processed either.

They're both pretty old. Here are more old unprocessed tx's. I think all but the last one pre-date the re-import you said you were going to run.

Code:
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Yeah, the different progressives now have some different tuning parameters. I have teh beast setup to not grow very much but to always give a good expected return.

Anyways, I tracked down one of the lost transactions you posted. It looks like some things were marked in the database in such a way that my software lost track of the fact that the transaction to pay them never confirmed and wasn't being tracked. I have a job to clean that up that I'll run overnight which should fix the others.

Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I'm not sure exactly how things failed in such a way where my view didn't show any problem.

dooglus

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Quote from: fireduck on June 28, 2012, 10:38:53 PM

Yeah, there is a max at 1e-2 and a min at 1e-5. I'm trying to strike a balance between decent expected return and reasonable chance of growing to a good jackpot.

It looks like you've changed it again since writing that message. I was just going to say that it's unlikely to grow very fast when you're offering a 1% chance to turn 1 BTC into 27 BTC. But now I see it's a 3.7% chance...

Also, did the re-import finish? I see that the outstanding bets are mostly still outstanding.

For example, look at:

010bc3ccaab3394915e6e1ecd026c126572f21501d6d89ca5efc7f3970df554d (2012-06-16 23:39:32)

It makes 10 bets in one transaction, but only 9 of them were processed.

And:

0e67d2804b78cd32fcac334b807b62bff7d4d0d3d7af293a42d80a29be031f0a (2012-06-17 08:39:55)

only makes one bet, but it wasn't processed either.

They're both pretty old. Here are more old unprocessed tx's. I think all but the last one pre-date the re-import you said you were going to run.

Code:
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fireduck

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Activity: 392

Merit: 251

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 08:52:23 PM

The 0.05 and 0.25 ones look kind of reasonable, but the 1.00 one is still nowhere near worth playing.

Do the odds of winning max out at 1%?

Yeah, there is a max at 1e-2 and a min at 1e-5. I'm trying to strike a balance between decent expected return and reasonable chance of growing to a good jackpot.

dooglus

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Quote from: fireduck on June 28, 2012, 08:43:13 PM

I've changed how the progressives work to make them more interesting for plays. Now the win odds are dynamic based on the pot size. I have some further tuning to do but I am pretty happy with them right now. My simulations show them often paying out in the low hundreds and occasionally making runs into the thousands of BTC for some big wins.

The 0.05 and 0.25 ones look kind of reasonable, but the 1.00 one is still nowhere near worth playing.

Do the odds of winning max out at 1%?

fireduck

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Merit: 251

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 02:54:32 PM

I suspect part of the motivation for this is that the progressive games are entirely risk-free for the house. They take 1.5% of every bet, win or lose.

The site is doing very poorly on the regular bets - they lost 500 BTC just yesterday - so a risk-free alternative is surely attractive.

I've changed how the progressives work to make them more interesting for players. Now the win odds are dynamic based on the pot size. I have some further tuning to do but I am pretty happy with them right now. My simulations show them often paying out in the low hundreds and occasionally making runs into the thousands of BTC for some big wins.

The advantage is that there is no upper bound to how high they can go and are not at all limited by our available funds. If no one is interested we could drop it but I think it could be engaging.

And since almost all of the money bet goes back into the jackpot (even if it is the next jackpot) the overall payout is probably much better than Vegas progressives. However, I don't think they publish numbers so who knows. 98% of each bet will eventually be paid out to a player.

dooglus

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Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 03:15:29 PM

It ought to be removed from there too, or bots will continue trying to play it.

Oh, and the very first post in this thread also gives its address, so that should be edited too.

dooglus

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It seems the "lessthan 64000" bet is no longer available. It's not listed on the site, and all bets to it are being refunded.

But it's still listed on the JSON page:

Code:

"lessthan 64000":{"name":"lessthan 64000","address":"1dice9wVtrKZTBbAZqz1XiTmboYyvpD3t","win_rate":"97.6563","prize_factor":"0.9932","house_rate":"0.0300","expected_return":"0.9700","min_bet":"0.0010","max_bet":"-226.0653"}}

It ought to be removed from there too, or bots will continue trying to play it.

dooglus

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on June 28, 2012, 02:09:52 PM

That's what happens when engineers try to run businesses.

WHISKEY

TANGO

FOXTROT!!!!!

I suspect part of the motivation for this is that the progressive games are entirely risk-free for the house. They take 1.5% of every bet, win or lose.

The site is doing very poorly on the regular bets - they lost 500 BTC just yesterday - so a risk-free alternative is surely attractive.

ErebusBat

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I am the one who knocks

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 01:36:05 PM

Quote from: ErebusBat on June 28, 2012, 01:31:19 PM

Stupid tax?

Drunk betting? (new term == DrunkDice?)

I guess you could argue that all negative-sum gambling is a stupid tax, but these progressive bets certainly seem to be.

The 1-in-4096 bets are terrible value.

Currently the 'Teh Beast' has 21.70 BTC in the pot, costs 0.25 BTC per bet, and pays out about 1 in 4096 bets. So I have a 1 in 4096 chance of multiplying my money by 86.8. That's a 97.88% house edge.

I do not know, but I am taking an educated guess, that is still better odds of winning a progressive in vegas. HOWEVER: in vegas I can win on the machine without winning the progressive.

ErebusBat

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I am the one who knocks

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on June 28, 2012, 02:09:52 PM

Just noticed this.

Quote from: fireduck on June 25, 2012, 12:34:48 PM

Now you want to add variations to it? Progressive jackpots, .... seriously?

KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID!

Stick with what's working. You want to increase play? Build a mobile app, and/or an HTML5 maybe. Make it simpler to use ... not harder!

No more features. I'ld suggest dropping progressive betting (or do it under a different brand).

To be fair you do not have to participate in the feature if you do not want to. It isn't even the first the you see when you goto the site (i had to search, only knew because of this thread).

Stephen Gornick

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Just noticed this.

Quote from: fireduck on June 25, 2012, 12:34:48 PM

New feature: Progressive Games

They accumulate a jackpot until someone wins.

http://satoshidice.com/progressive.php

SatoshiDICE is THE MOST SUCCESSFUL bitcoin startup to-date (in terms of participation by the wider population)

SatoshiDICE has (had) THE MOST SIMPLE TO UNDERSTAND concept for gambling. I send x BTC to y address and either I win or I lose. And I know right away. Unlike other online gambling systems, blockchain-based ones (like this and BitLotto) are resistant to cheating by the operator. Because there will be evidence if SatoshiDICE cheats at all, I trust wagering with the service.

Now you want to add variations to it? Progressive jackpots, .... seriously?

KEEP IT SIMPLE!

Stick with what's working. You want to increase play? Build a mobile app, and/or a slick HTML5 UX maybe. Make it simpler to use ... not more complicated with other features!

SatoshIDICE should be .. install this app. Click Buy Bitcoin. Go to a bank or 7-11 and give them cash (cash deposit methods are available in U.S., Canada, Australia, Brazil, Russia, India ... and more options soon). Pick which bet you want and click "Roll Dice". Boom. Done.

dooglus

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Quote from: ErebusBat on June 28, 2012, 01:31:19 PM

Stupid tax?

Drunk betting? (new term == DrunkDice?)

I guess you could argue that all negative-sum gambling is a stupid tax, but these progressive bets certainly seem to be.

The 1-in-4096 bets are terrible value.

Currently the 'Teh Beast' has 21.70 BTC in the pot, costs 0.25 BTC per bet, and pays out about 1 in 4096 bets. So I have a 1 in 4096 chance of multiplying my money by 86.8. That's a 97.88% house edge.

ErebusBat

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I am the one who knocks

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 01:21:04 PM

Quote from: kano on June 28, 2012, 09:41:50 AM

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 12:34:55 AM

Quote from: mem on June 28, 2012, 12:13:59 AM

satoshidice due to the 0 confirmations makes for an awesome bitcoin laundering system Wink

But charges 27%... there must be cheaper ways to clean 100 BTC. Bet 5 BTC on "lessthan 48000" 20 times and you'll probably do better than losing 27%.

I think you missed the word 'laundering' since the satoshi bet you make points directly back to you ...

So progressive bets are neither zero-conf nor laundering.

In which case why would anyone bet 100 BTC to win 3 BTC? The payout contains their own coins, and takes half an hour to arrive.

Stupid tax?

Drunk betting? (new term == DrunkDice?)

dooglus

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Quote from: kano on June 28, 2012, 09:41:50 AM

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 12:34:55 AM

Quote from: mem on June 28, 2012, 12:13:59 AM

satoshidice due to the 0 confirmations makes for an awesome bitcoin laundering system Wink

But charges 27%... there must be cheaper ways to clean 100 BTC. Bet 5 BTC on "lessthan 48000" 20 times and you'll probably do better than losing 27%.

I think you missed the word 'laundering' since the satoshi bet you make points directly back to you ...

So progressive bets are neither zero-conf nor laundering.

In which case why would anyone bet 100 BTC to win 3 BTC? The payout contains their own coins, and takes half an hour to arrive.

kano

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Linux since 1997 RedHat 4

Quote from: dooglus on June 28, 2012, 12:34:55 AM

Quote from: mem on June 28, 2012, 12:13:59 AM

satoshidice due to the 0 confirmations makes for an awesome bitcoin laundering system Wink

But charges 27%... there must be cheaper ways to clean 100 BTC. Bet 5 BTC on "lessthan 48000" 20 times and you'll probably do better than losing 27%.

I think you missed the word 'laundering' since the satoshi bet you make points directly back to you ...

ErebusBat

hero member

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I am the one who knocks

Quote from: mem on June 28, 2012, 12:13:59 AM

Quote from: dooglus on June 27, 2012, 11:23:25 PM

Quote from: ThePok on June 27, 2012, 06:44:44 AM

so i pay 1 btc and one in 16 times i win 3.19 BTC....whos ever gone play that???
Its only profitable if Pot is at 16 BTC but it will never get there?? (Only if silly people play?!?)

Whats the Math behind this Grin

Talking of silly people, look at this!

Someone bet 100 BTC to win that 3.19 BTC. 70% of the 100 BTC gets added to the available pot, so they win a total of 73.19. Actually, they won it 4 times, and split the 73.19 with themselves 4 times. Still a loss of 27 BTC though...

satoshidice due to the 0 confirmations makes for an awesome bitcoin laundering system Wink

Progressive bets are not zero conf.

Topic: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game - page 249. (Read 495794 times)