Topic: Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop? - page 3. (Read 12072 times)

My expected lowest target is $490-$550

Personally, I don't think charts can be a very good price predictor. They may be but I simply just go by my own intuition. I take into account what seems reasonable and what doesn't.

Where I feel the price will go to is probably around $300-$500 also. I usually undershoot a bit so it will fall to $600.

Yup, so what is your buy-in target?

Or if you don't intend on buying in, how low do you think it will hit, and where do you reckon stability will be found.

Numbers backed up by facts or chart trends would be nice, although to be fair all of my best Bitcoin decisions/predictions have been influenced by instincts and/or dreams. (and my worst ones from following media and blogs that confirmed any particular emotional bias I happened to have at a particular point in time). With this said, my dream of 3 nights running where Bitcoin shockingly hit low double digits again, does give me some personal concern, as my buy-in range is $300 - $540 at present.

Bitcoins to the moon, bears to hibernation and bulls to the bank with bags of cash!

Looks like we bears are right again.

Well, it wasn't really that hard to understand the price going lower. $1200 bitcoins could be the biggest speculative bubble in history.
$900 bitcoins was just still totally crazy and unsustainable. $800 bitcoins, nope way too overpriced and no way you can sustain that.
It took two years for bitcoins to rise to $13, then all of a sudden people are putting that much fiat into bitcoins for the price to rise to $800?

How anybody holding bitcoins did not sell at least around $900 to $1000 and just sit on fiat is beyond me. It was almost certain to go lower. If it started to creep back up and look strong again then just buy back in.

This bubble is very similar to the 1st bitcoin bubble. There were many times I even had doubt the price would go lower, but I still felt it was overpriced and would go lower. Eventually it did go lower.

The problem is, new money can't really get into the system that quickly to sustain these ridiculous prices. Especially money into bitcoins, where it is time consuming and difficult to get your cash in. Bitcoin owners already have their bitcoins and will not be taking their own fiat and purchasing $1000 bitcoins. They are not that stupid, even though they will tell other people to buy in. The only thing that held the price higher was probably a few large investors manipulating the market.

I said from the beginning this would be a controlled drop so that the manipulators could cash out. You can't be stupid and think the price is not largely manipulated. When looking at alt-coins prices, it is so obvious to see the manipulators come in and pull their tactics, and is also amazing how much money they have and will spend doing so.

These market manipulartors simply don't have the money to push bitcoin prices higher than $1000 right now, so they will make money by letting the price drop and buying back lower, then maybe they will push the prices higher again. I do have doubts if a new bubble will happen anytime soon, I predict it could be years. Too many people will want to sit on their bitcoins in the short term thinking the price will sky-rocket again. This time they will sell fast and not be stupid to think the price is going to crazy levels like $2000.

Well, today the question will remain in my head. How could bitcoin holders be so stupid to think the price will go higher than $1000 anytime soon. How could they be so stupid not to sell out their position and sit on fiat when they had plenty of opportunity to do so? I honestly can not comprehend how stupid bitcoin holders can be and how ridiculously stupid they can be with their price predictions.

nice thread on the price trend here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=432733&page=30

my money is on bounce at 690 on btc-e in next 24-48hrs, but whether theres enough buyers in the 600 range to push it back up to nov highs i doubt it. probably get some stability around 700-800 after the next bounce.

Question: why does the discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained persist?
This is going on for two days already, the bid sum and ask sum on blockchained keep being
significantly lower than on trading.i286. Like 34M$ vs. 37M$ and 33kBTC vs. 39kBTC.

I'd say we're dropping until new years and then moving up again. In my opinion, we will not reach as low as $300, but maybe $600.

The only point is where the critical point is, I believe because of long price trend around $300

You have it the wrong way. It's when the price moves upwards it will drop. When it moves downwards it will ultimately reach a critical point where people think it's cheap and buy in, creating a new spike upwards with all the sheep following since "it's going to the moon" again.

Yes it is a good buying opportunity, you sell what you have and buy a lot more at a lower price.

Bitcoin is getting weaker by the day, the price won't hold for long and a drop is almost certain at this point.

If the price looks to have regained strength then buy again.

I disagree.

fools sell bitcoins in a bear market, its a buying opportunity, silly bears...

I think most peoples strategy should be at this point is to sell a good portion of their bitcoins and sit on cash. If you see the price starting to rise then buy back in.

It is far too risky to sit on bitcoins right now.

At least that would be my strategy.

Or some clever person invents auto Btc top up with fiat whenever a purchase is made in btcs.

That means your Btc balance will not change.

The problem is, most people think Bitcoin is going to be worth a whole damn lot more in the future. So why sell for fiat now and live in fear of missing the greatest opportunity of your life? Just a couple months ago people were selling at $100, you can't just walk away and think I'll just come back next year to buy back in when bitcoin has actually matured a bit more...

but the question is -- will the price actually come down much as a result of this? i don't entirely disagree with you.

This, very long way to go there, as for now I believe Bitcoin price is overvalued by speculation

Even at $100,000 you won't need the majority using it.

Bitcoin will become usefull be valued at $100,000+, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

And every seller will just dump the coins @ market price to get fiat like bitpay now?
That won't solve the adaption problem.

If people allways convert bitcoin to fiat after a trade, then why use bitcoin? You could use any other electronic form of cash, even one with a fixed price.

Bitcoin will become usefull, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.



@ Holliday: The exchage rate is only low for people who bought @ over 100$. All other enjoy the profits. People with high buy in prices need to be optimistic, because they want a simliar performance (100000% profit). That won't be possible the next 5 years. Bitcoin won't reach 10 Mio $ (equivalent to todays dollar value, not including hyperinflation).