Topic: Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop? - page 2. (Read 12072 times)

The reason for the boom is more complicated than just China (as for China, only Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing areas were really involved).
IMO the recovery from the SR crash (which crash was corrective wave 2) was the start point of the boom and China only strengthened the uptrend.
Once price started to rise sharply, more people got interested, and new fiat flowed into the exchanges for quite a while.

As for the price at the very bottom, I said before that it depends how many more coins will appear in the asks, right now about 51k on Gox, according to trading.i286
In April, at this stage of the market, the biggest dumps already happened, so the most important information now should be the amount of coins transferred to the exchanges.
I believe the next days will see greed turn into fear, as the buyers look weak, and more coins will appear in the ask sum, building up seller pressure.

well, the first port was before the recent news from china, keeping a target without any kind of fundamental analysis is not a good strategy imo

And this is why bears like you always miss the bottom. Earlier in this thread you kinda accepted that maybe you should buy at $500-600 and not at $400 since you usually undershoot the target. Now when there is a little panic and fear in the air you are back pedaling towards $300 and lower. You know that this way you will be sure to miss the bottom again don't you?

Check BTC transfered (in USD value at that time) and you will see increase

Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.

I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.

Lets face it, it seems the whole reason bitcoin boomed recently was China. I wish I knew just how much they were buying, but they seemed to be the big player. With the government cracking down over there and if china is pretty much out of the game, who is going to be buying $750 dollar bitcoins?

Surely not the people who bought them for $100 and lower. These people are probably the majority of the people who have the potential to buy bitcoins. They talk about going to the moon, but I doubt any of those people are going to fork $750 of their fiat dollars for a bitcoin especially when they are holding some already. They talk about going to the moon because they want their value to increase. They are not taking $750 dollars and buying a single digital coin.

More and more people should start selling their bitcoins as the price stagnates and signs point to another drop. Right now the price looks very weak and no signs of any recovery.

For their to be another speculative bubble and price to go to the moon again, bitcoin will have to lower in price enough for new people to want to buy them. The price will have to go to a level where people feel they are undervalued and another buying frenzy gets pushed forward. I don't see this happening until the price reaches at least in the $200's.

Well, I happen to not wear a hat, I wear a helmet with built in babrwire around it, in case anyone tries to de-helmet me.

Be prepared for a bloody meal!

If that happens I will eat your hat

I expect BTC to take over the financial world in 2014-2015!

Dellusion  

Transactions increased only 50% in 1 year.
Bitcoin has a long way to go till real life utility becomes significant.

Price is up 6500%... Overspeculating ... You expect another 5000% price increase without more transactions?

Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.

You can't extrapolate like that.

Until today, my guesstimate of the time required to reach the very bottom was no longer than the 22nd December, but after
comparing the patterns of April 12th - 16th to the current ones, it seems that the moves take now about 5 times longer.
So if the market will continue to move at this slow rate, the very bottom might be reached only around the 28th December.
If the 5x longer time for moves will be confirmed, then a new fully developed bull market might only start in about 12 - 15 months from now.

The discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained has grown larger, wtf does this mean?
Trading.i286 shows right now about 49.5k coins on the Gox ask side, while blockchained only about 38k.

Today China already hit 3310 CNY= $542 USD and they used to be the price leader.  It's not over.

The situation is definitely looking worse now...we may see sub $600 after all.

Yes but a lot of people really believe that Bitcoin is going to go up much more next year. And with this thinking comes the thought that whether or not I buy in at 400 or 600 or 800 now, best be on the safe side and at least have Bitcoins. Because the returns in a year will be good any which way. I would not wait more than three weeks before getting in.

I'm just hoping it holds just a little longer so I can cash out my little play money I bought last week. Liquidating all my play positions to get my bitcoin back. We are only talking like 3 bitcoin here, but $850-950 dollar bitcoins.

Luckily I bet good, because I am still up at the moment even though losses are heavy.

Hopefully the bulls can be optimistic just a little longer.

This is why I didn't speculate in 2012, because after watching bitcoins fall from $30 to $2.01, really didn't want myself putting fiat into it at the time. Easy to say I was stupid now, when bitcoins rose recently. However, now I know why after being active during that time why I didn't invest even though I really do like the idea.

My plan was to invest when bitcoin reached a longterm stable price, that would have been around $10.00 but stupid me just forgot about bitcoins.

$750 bitcoin price right now is way too high. I would say with china slowly being put out of the market, things should go back to reasonable growth levels. We were at $13 in January, I say we really shouldn't be higher than $100 at this point. I doubt it will fall that low, but the risk is there. The risk is far too high to be investing in bitcoins at anything higher than $200 dollars.

I just don't see the long term gain here when you could invest in other currencies that may come out in the future. Downloading over 10GB of data didn't make me feel really good about bitcoins long term growth.

It is far easier for you guys who own bitcoins, when they were under $20, to stick in the game, but buying them at $650 or $500 or $400 is still a highly risky investment, unless it stabilized around that point for a really long time.

It's all speculation man, nobody really knows or can tell you.

I keep reading this and see two interpretations.
Are you saying you think the low will be lower than $550 or that it won't get as low as $550?
Just my guess but I'm thinking easy $500-$550 by late thursday/early fri.
Leveling around that range until after Christmas with a very gentle climb to New Years.

EDIT *** I just read the news about China. Wether it's true or not... by late thurs/early fri $400-4450

Hmm.

It just hit $665 (on Bitstamp) without so much as a bang.

This makes me think that the actual low will be dramatically lower than this.

Usually, the lowest of the lows are found in quite a dramatic fashion before an upswing that represents the market telling us that this low-point was a gross underestimation. My highest buy in tranche on Bitstamp is at $550. Just a few days ago, I was considering whether this was a bit optimistic. Now I am thinking that it is perhaps a bit risky.

before i understood that china banned bitcoin commerce i expected 300-600 for the low.  probably around 4-500.


however, the fundamentals may have changed.  if the rumors of china banning payment services to btc exchanges are true, that removes all the chinese demand for btc and puts a ton of long term selling pressure on btc.  without China i assume the bottome could even be low 200s


doesnt really matter, im mostly fiat and short selling 15% of my bankroll right now.  making money no matter what.  ill have to evaluate what the facts are regarding China's payments on btc if they banned payouts/withdrawals or not.  i wont be too happy if i end up all in at 450, then watch it drop to $250 and stagnate for months.