Topic: Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop? - page 4. (Read 12072 times)

How was I wrong, I did see the beginning of the technology about the same time you saw it in 2011, based on the dates we registered. I do agree that it was a great technology at the time and would solve some of the fiat issues. I was big into how fiat is a scam before bitcoin.

Yes I did worry about the volatility of the exchanges, when I first heard about bit coin it was priced over $20 dollars each. Why would I invest in it at $20 dollars at the time when I was smart enough to wait until it fell all the way to $2.01. At that point I just decided for it to stabilize a little bit as I did not see it skyrocketing again at that time or any time soon (within a few months) and it didn't.

My reasons were that the price is fluctuating so much that it could just as easily fall back below $1.00. If it did stabilize above $2.00, then I would buy there without taking the risk of it falling to zero. It was actually a smart decision if you ask me, as the coin became more and more tested, and there would have been plenty of buying opportunities after that time for even $3.00 range I believe. You should know that bitcoin was untested at that time and there were still major ricks of governmental shutdown and someone hacking it driving the price to zero.

My issues were that I just got interested in other things and didn't even look at bitcoins, I never even posted from early 2012, until last month.

I do not agree with what you wrote.

We have a two-way bitcoin ATM here in Vancouver, so it is trivial to exchange Bitcoin for fiat in a hurry.  For a better rate but longer wait, just link your exchange account to your bank account. 

Once more cities have two-way bitcoin ATMs, fiat <--> Bitcoin will all of a sudden seem very easy. 

It is hard (impossible) to use Bitcoin only now, and exchanging fiat <--> Bitcoin is very complicated.

Remember, current fiat system has huge network effect, it is like trying Linux to overtake Microsoft

But its hard to say if it is just bubble or start of new technology. Probably something in between

I was right pretty much every time with my bitcoin directions. Remember, I was the one of the few people at that time in 2011 who was saying it was way overvalued and it would fall. And it did fall all the way down to $2.00 from $30. This was when 99% of the forum were bullish and were telling me (or flaming me) I was wrong. Then when it didn't go down as low as I predicted, I predicted around $1.00 instead it only reached $2.01. I just left bitcoin all together and got involved with other things. I really didn't have that much money to speculate with at the time anyway. I figured I would wait for a stable long term price before I entered, which would have been around $10 as that is what it seemed to stabilize around for a long time. However, I was just not thinking about bitcoins anymore and was making plenty of fiat dollars.
 
When was I ever wrong? I never said bitcoin would never go up, I just said it was way overvalued at the time and I was correct. This was mostly when it was over $10.00, and it was still only a high of $13.00 two years later. My buy in point would have been $1.00 if it fell that low, I was only a $1.00 off if you want to look at it that way.

Then when bitcoin rose to about $1000 I said it was unstable and would fall. I then told people to sell above $1000 right before it dropped down to $600's. I was right again.

I honestly don't understand where I was ever wrong  .

I say now that it should fall a bit before rising, not saying a total crash but a reasonable correction from where we are at. However, I stand a chance at being wrong here because it seems that big investors have put a bitcoin floor price up. However, if anything I learned form 2011/2012 is that eventually it will fall even if it is looking stable. Time will tell. 
 

This is bullish, if someone would like to invest he would keep it in secret

Yes. You are just as clueless about bitcoins directions and causations today as you were 3 years ago.

Well, all that information has been priced in already and that is why the price skyrocketed to where it is now.

After the first bubble, it took over two years before it surpassed that point.

Does anyone else think my statement about the next bubble being a long time into the future is really incorrect?

Last night I dreamed of a bear. It was actually really friendly though, and it's trainer encouraged me to get close and let it lick me, like a dog. What does it mean!?

This is serious price discussion, right?

I think you are right. I have been convinced for some time now the reason we aren't seeing inflation, is that there is no 'new money' all thats happening is there is a massive transfer of debt from the banks to the govt. The great unwinding. Rinse and repeat...

I added "bearish and bullish" outcomes to the above.

I dont know, you say central bank has to replace so many dollars everyday? Seems expensive...

Because new money can be created from debt only... 

Here are more factors to think about

1. Fed taper
2. China slowing down economically
3. US recession
4. Winklevoss twins ETF
5. Coinbase consumer apps
6. Taxation of Btcs
7. Merchant transaction volumes
8. Hoarding - who, why and how much?
9. Dumping - who, why and how much?
10. Will someone please develop an auto Btc top up account (replenish from fiat)?

Oh, and is any of this freshly printed base money finding its way into your pockets, or does it seem more to you that is being used as a hand out to the ultra wealthy who had great big holes blown out of their notional wealth as the housing derivatives market collapsed in 2008?

Also, the thing with the miners is irrelevant. The fact is that there are 12 millions infinitely dividable units of account in the Bitcoin universe right now with the potential for being as valuable as thin air, if the collective human mind really wanted to see it that way.

Not totally unpredictable

On the upside, mining cost projection limited how high the price can go (If mining is too cheap, then all the people who want to buy bitcoin will go mining, thus no one will buy bitcoin from market). The frenzy we saw this year is caused by the rising cost and difficulty of mining since ASIC enter the mining industry

On the down side, it is also mining cost limited how low the price can go. Lots of money have already been invested into mining, the cost is already there, miners will refuse to sell the coin under the cost, and that will dramatically reduce the daily coin supply once the price drop below mining cost. At that stage, many people would like to buy instead of mine, thus create support on exchange

Since there are so many fiat money out there, and bitcoin is new and interesting, some rich kids will just throw some millions of dollar in the game (like twins). If you consider this is a virtual gold mining game in cyberspace, there are plenty of kids ready to play the game

Historically, all the bubbles are caused by government printing too much money, and this is exactly the case now, with 2.8 billion dollars printed everyday, everything's price will be in a bubble very soon

It might be a pure coincidence, but it is curious and interesting that for every previous BTC price cycles (2011, 2011 again, 2013 and this time around) the ratio of the post-crash low to the old peak (i.e. Low 2/Peak 1, Low 3/Peak 2, Low 4/Peak 3, Low 5/Peak 4) has in every case been about 2x to 2.5x:

Thus:

Opening price: 6 cents (October 10)

Peak 1: 38 cents (November 10)

Low 1: 19 cents (December 10)  

Peak 2: 1.05 (Feb 11)    

Low 2: 68 cents (April 11) [RATIO 1.8]

Peak 3: 29 dollars (June 11)

Low 3: 2.20 (Nov 11) [RATIO 2.1]

Peak 4: 270 (April 13)

Low 4: 65 (April 13) [RATIO 2.2]

Peak 5: 1220 (December 13)

Low 5: 660 (December 13) [RATIO 2.4]


On this basis, there is very little scope for any further fall. A ratio of 1.8 would give just under US$ 500 so I would be surprised if the price were to fall below that and indeed we may very well already have seen the bottom.

i foresee a drop into the $700s this coming weekend... tough to call though.  i haven't been trading too well lately.

Good evening bears. What do you think of this?

There's 2 factors I'm looking at: BTC China and the immense market cap that we didn't have in 2012.

My money is in fiat - bearish position. I can't predict the next low, but will keep a close eye on it and make my decisions in real time. My strategy is not to have any long term orders. I usually do 2-3 hours of research before buying or selling.

Long term bull here of the most wild eyed variety. Do I think BTC could take out $10K? Oh yes, but we will see the $300's first before we ever see even the $1000's again.

If you look at the astronomical run up, realise that much of the funds piling into BTC was debt taken out to invest in Bitcoin, appreciate that now that profits have been made, and now that the purchasing power has ran out of puff, positions must be liquidised to repay the debt and to take profits. And the same dynamic applies right across the board. Long gone are the days when Bitcoin was a 'cause'. These days it is the ultimate speculative roller coaster and the only reason people are investing in Bitcoin is to make money. Again, when it becomes obvious that the juggernaut is out of fuel for now, profits will be taken and sell-offs will occur.

Smart money is not going to pile into Bitcoin right now. Any rises in price comes during periods of very low volume. Even a novice can look at the charts and distinguish a blatant bear trend which may take some time (in Bitcoin terms) to iron itself out. The $795 - $345 November crash proved itself to be a bear trap, and the buying power that came in at this point was immense. Not so now after the Nov/Dec $1200 double top.

Because of all this, I would suggest that the lowest low is not yet in for this stage of Bitcoins growth. That means lower than $545. I am going for $340, around the support of the mid November breakdown.


Perhaps, but one thing I have learned from Bitcoin is that it has the power to totally smash peoples expectations in both directions. Just as Bitcoin has the power to shock people in how high it can go, it also has the power to shock people as to how low it can go. Lets not forget, that Bitcoin is essentially 'nothing'. It is just an idea that would disappear of the face of the planet should someone happen to pull the plug and make the lights go off. There is no rare or otherwise valuable minerals, government, or military backing/enforcing the acceptance and use of Bitcoin. Thus no physical or practical limitations on neither the optimism when the mania sets, or the dread when the panic sets in.

Bitcoin can and will, exceed expectations in both directions.