Topic: Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop? - page 6. (Read 12072 times)

I really was not bullish until now. But based on my previous observations on this forum, price usually goes up when Tzupy appears and say that we are in the bear market. This indicator works surely better than EW.

So from now on, I should probably stay out of this thread 

indeed. that's the flip side of the "everyone thinks it will fall but it wont" argument. thing is, i see much more "up up up" posts than anything else, and vast majority thinks under 600~ is impossible.

Some uber-bulls chose to ignore the 'bears only' title, again. This time it was followed by a 'please'. What does it take to keep uber-bulls out of a thread?

If the current market is going to follow EW patterns, then the very bottom has to be no higher than 495$ (Gox price).
That's because corrective wave C has to be at least as large (% wise IMO) as corrective wave A.
If the market will behave like in April, then the very bottom could be in the 250$ - 300$ range.
But the bottom depends heavily on how many coins will be panic sold when most of the market understands that it's a bear market.
And that's impossible to predict IMO, could be 50K more or 150K more, with hugely different outcomes.

Transactions:
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address

Around 40k @ jan 2013
Now: 60k @ dez 2013
Peak: 100k

Hmm 50% more transactions.


Just let's check the price.

http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-price?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

13$ @ jan 2013
890$ @ dez 2013
1200$ peak

We have a 6750% price increase!
It's purely speculative.

I am neither bull nor bear, and relatively new at this.  But it seems to me, given the insane price rise lately, and the fact that very few people appear to think it could fall as far as the April ATH, that there is a decent chance it could fall that far or further.  Any number of (perceived) bad news items such as last week's China news could trigger it, and the very low volume provides further reason to think it could happen.  Ultimately, the value of btc will be determined by how widely it is actually used as money for transactions.  By that measure, it seems quite overvalued at $1000, since I doubt its use has increased tenfold in the last couple of months.  Overshooting on a correction could easily bring it back to $266, imo.  That is not a prediction, and I would not be surprised to see it at $2000 in January.  But I am not at all confident that $600 is the new floor.

how do you know that?

Your opinion is: bitcoin will allways keep going up.

But why isn't there a correlation between transactions and price? The price is way higher then the utility of bitcoin. Either the utility has to start skyrocketing or the price has to go down. Otherwise btc price will be purely speculative and I don't like that.

You know I'm a bill long term but I will answer your OP question as sincerely as I can.

In looking for the new floor you need to look for a downtrend from now to first week on January.

If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.

There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

Next bottom should be much lower, maybe 300$ if the down trend is really happening now

So bulls don't qualify for a serious discussion or what?

Not saying I'm bullish right now, but ironically, those who wish to hear only what please their ears doom themselves not be taken seriously.

There has been really big volume on every major exchange when the market bottomed at 7th of December. Also, it turned up slightly above the level where market found support at first major correction of this rally, which was at 20th of November.

Latest development is showing us that there is huge potential for Bitcoin in the future, and there is enough of investors who would like to take the advantage and buy cheap coins ahead of other investors buying it low. So the question is what price is cheap at this stage. It's the price where bulls are getting stronger than bears, and we've seen two times lately that this level starts somewhere around/above $500. Of course this guarantees nothing, but indicates enough I think.

Unless there is really big bad news for Bitcoin, it's pure nonsense to wait to see Bitcoin below $200 (as I seen few to suggest that), in my opinion. It's like waiting to see the price below $20 after April this year.

As long as I'm making more coins when the price is falling, I don't really care where the price goes. But remember, that too much of skepticism isn't any better than too much of optimism. This especially applies for Bitcoin, and many people had already lost enough of money/opportunity before realizing it.

It's all from one source, based on the time and size of the transactions.  they range from 538 - 650 and get progressively bigger.  

https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000021aa9395c767187d1ba3507d6f95687ca350abd16fffca1e0


More BTC sent in the last 2 hours than in any whole day ever in BTC history.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions


Opps.  EDIT misread it

Turns out it's just some regular money laundering!

Is it?  Past performance guarantees nothing, but the traditional thing we see after a major crash is a dead cat bounce that never quit reaches the ATH followed by a dip that never quite reaches the bottom.  This is typically followed by a period of sideways trading and a subsequent rise past the old ATH.

Now it is entirely possible this crash wont follow the same basic pattern as the others, but it certainly isn't "obvious" that it wont.

It is obvious that we 'll see again the 600$ bottom. The question is where the price will go from there because it will not bounce back at 1000$.
So it can either stabilize between 500-700$ or it will go all the way down to pre-china hype levels. Around 200$ that is.

I don't know, I think we have already seen the bottom; Maybe we will see <600, but I doubt it.  There is a little downward pressure right now, but its fairly low volume...I just dont see it playing out like the crash down from 266 which had a very pronounced bounce afterwards.  IMO, we will probably see a price drop no more than another $100 before we start moving up again (possibly after some sideways movement).  

I've seen enough of the older traditionally bullish forum posters around here with a enough of a short term bearish sentiment to give me pause.

I could be wrong, but I think we will start to bubble up again sooner than most people expect.

If everyone were to expect a huge drop we would already had it.

The technical level on the chart where a bottom should have been was 400-450 but it didn't happen because Chinese volume suddenly came back and saved the day. It would be interesting to see where we would go if China truly dropped out. This is why I am not comfortable to he long right now - it recovered for all the wrong reasons.

last leg top was 1240, why would you calculate from the top of the lower high?
1240-->576

or did you mean to say that no single "leg" of a down trend would be more than 50%? that's not really much of a statement.

drop on btcchina right at 50%. we see if 4000 cny holds if we do drop. but "correct again" is pretty meaningless when so little time has passed.

I missed the > 50% drop.  Since $1155 to $576 is almost exactly 50%.

So, to sum up:

Correct prediction about Christmas almost to the day.  I now predict that we won't see an ATH until after Christmas.

"Probably no more than 33% and certainly no more than 50%".  Correct again.

The question to ask is if bears are true long term bears or long term bulls. Whether the aim is to sell BTC for good and return to fiat forever as a true long term bear, or whether the aim is to buy back in at a lower price point because of a future price rise.

If the latter is true, the USD demand curve for BTC remains constant. The prevalence of such (long term bull, short/med term bears) actually helps to stabilize the price by catching price dips.

any analysis from anyone as to where these coins are going? havent looked at any transactions...