SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 11.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 30, 2013, 12:52:25 PM

Quote

All of the recent developments warrants this price we are at.

Ah yes.

But back in January, the price was warranted too - at $13.50. We all can see what has changed in those months, but the flood of new money that was the biggest change - appears to be waning.

Well we can't say we KNOW how much money exists on gox or is flowing into bitcoin.

You can only see the bids. That's it. Well and your account balance.

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Quote

All of the recent developments warrants this price we are at.

Ah yes.

But back in January, the price was warranted too - at $13.50. We all can see what has changed in those months, but the flood of new money that was the biggest change - appears to be waning.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: Frozenlock on April 30, 2013, 12:46:52 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I see a bullish continuation through the end of the year. Meaning I believe we will have broken the high of $266 by December of this year.

By December? How is that bullish?

How is it not? lol

So many of you here are such short term thinkers.

"OMFG price went down today SELL! BEAR MARKET!"

Frozenlock

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

I see a bullish continuation through the end of the year. Meaning I believe we will have broken the high of $266 by December of this year.

By December? How is that bullish?

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Quote from: smoothie on April 30, 2013, 12:26:47 PM

In a Suckers Rally, the only suckers are the ones selling bitcoins in a hyper-deflationary currency.

Tongue

The usual notion of Sucker's Rally is to distinguish buyers who are misinformed about valuation, as subsequent price action reveals. Let's see what happens.

You joined in time for the first bubble collapse back in June 2011. Do you recall the steady, gut-wrenching decline from the $20's down to $2? I do. It's little comfort withstanding a 90% drop in value knowing that bitcoins will eventually be worth $$$ each.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

In a Suckers Rally, the only suckers are the ones selling bitcoins in a hyper-deflationary currency.

Tongue

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

20 days after the April 10 peak

The most significant resistance to increasing bitcoin prices is currently above $145. The recent peak at $160 has not yet been surpassed.

Now that 20 days have elapsed after the all-time-high of $266, the amount of buying enthusiasm that used to arrive each Monday morning is waning. Based upon the decline back to underlying trend predicted by speculative financial bubble theory, and comparison with the June, 2011 bubble, I expect the trading emphasis to shift to defending the support at $120, rather than pushing above $160 to new highs. I believe, that until $120 is breached to the downside, the way down will be primarily motivated by profit taking, and below $120 by loss-staunching and periodic capitulations.

What would negate the case for a the short term bear market? New high prices, in particular a new all time high. What would confirm the case? A long battle at $120 with a breakthrough to lower prices, in particular a low below $60.

Sentiment continues to cool 20 days post bubble peak, e.g. Google Trends, Reddit.

I sold some more bitcoins at $135 and have outstanding sell orders below $150, attempting to raise more $ selling into what I think is a Sucker's Rally.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on April 29, 2013, 11:58:25 PM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 12, 2013, 02:18:26 PM

[edited to add new posts and to reflect current events]

My principal comments regarding the short term bear case, and its potential for literally multiplying the number of bitcoins you sold to raise cash.

Hey SlipperySlope,

I'm looking for some more bearish talk on bitcoin

You have some?

What's your current analyses of the situation?

SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 12, 2013, 02:18:26 PM

[edited to add new posts and to reflect current events]

My principal comments regarding the short term bear case, and its potential for literally multiplying the number of bitcoins you sold to raise cash.

Hey SlipperySlope,

I'm looking for some more bearish talk on bitcoin

You have some?

What's your current analyses of the situation?

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: rpietila on April 24, 2013, 12:59:56 AM

There is now a short-term bear case going on. Selling at this dcb to $144-145 and buying back after one hour at anything between $130-$136 is an option.

Hmm..

If I cannot contain the rise of bitcoin.. I wonder who can Huh

If indeed nobody can do it, it will soon become very valuable.

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Quote

A brilliant thread.

Thanks so very much!

Quote

I've revised my short term opinion about the price. We'll probably touch at least $200, maybe even a new ATH before the bubble crashes for good. I'm almost 100% cash on MtGox and I stand to lose (in BTC terms) if I buy back above $190 or so.

Regardless, I'm not comfortable buying. Things are happening too quickly, this is bubble all over again, and I'm not willing to spend all my time watching the charts and keeping my finger on the Sell button.

"this is bubble all over again"

Technical patterns in price, e.g. a bubble, are typically fractal with respect to the time domain - right? So it's turtles all the way down.

mp420

hero member

Activity: 501

Merit: 500

A brilliant thread.

I've revised my short term opinion about the price. We'll probably touch at least $200, maybe even a new ATH before the bubble crashes for good. I'm almost 100% cash on MtGox and I stand to lose (in BTC terms) if I buy back above $190 or so.

Regardless, I'm not comfortable buying. Things are happening too quickly, this is bubble all over again, and I'm not willing to spend all my time watching the charts and keeping my finger on the Sell button. I reckon the worst that can happen is a new bubble up to $500 or $1000 and then a huge crash. Although, at $1000 I'd be tempted to take some coins out of my longer term storage.

The thing is, Bitcoin demand is all about speculation. Bitcoin has some limited utility beyond speculation at the moment but over 90% of the price is about people betting that the price will be higher in the future. And there are too many layman traders and too few professionals buying and selling, which exacerbates the volatility in a small, thinly traded market.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: nkspace on April 23, 2013, 01:37:00 PM

+1

-2

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 23, 2013, 12:18:35 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on April 23, 2013, 11:25:42 AM

@slipperyslope:

Did you factor in the fact that a large proportion of fiat have been accumulated (on sold btc) in accounts at mtgox, expecting a crash and waiting to buy back 'cheaper', hence creating pressure on the bid sums and eventually reducing possible crash to corrections.

Ah yes! Indeed back in 2011 lots of cash I believe remained at Mt.Gox even after it was hacked. It took all the way from June 8, 2011 to November 14 that year, to wring the last fiat out of the most reluctant buyer. That is a bubble collapse and that is the sort of thing that I expect to happen this time - based upon speculative financial bubble theory and what we learned from Bitcoin Bubble 1.

Regarding corrections, I am preparing a post addressing that timely point.

Back then "lots of cash" was like $500,000.

Current visible bid cash total is upwards of $22,000,000.

Big difference.

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: rpietila on April 24, 2013, 12:59:56 AM

There is now a short-term bear case going on. Selling at this dcb to $144-145 and buying back after one hour at anything between $130-$136 is an option.

See, on topic Roll Eyes

you are too kind

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

There is now a short-term bear case going on. Selling at this dcb to $144-145 and buying back after one hour at anything between $130-$136 is an option.

See, on topic Roll Eyes

nkspace

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

+1

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

13 days after the April 10 peak

I now believe that the current situation, with due regard to speculative financial bubble theory, is within the zone of resistance named the Sucker's Rally. We did not have one in Bitcoin Bubble 1 so previously I did not even think to consider it.
.

.
Revisiting various famous bubble charts, we see strong corrections back upwards the previous peak, e.g. US Stock Market Bubble of 1929. Because this happens so frequently, the pattern has been given a name by experienced traders - the Suckers Rally. Note that the technical indicator shown is the Accumulation / Distribution ratio, which shows more relatively more buying volume than selling volume, almost two weeks after the crash. From this, I draw the conclusion that trader sentiment is still high - again fitting bubble theory.

I offer no guidance on timing the top of this rally beyond the historical support/resistance points on the way up and down. This is a scary time for a bear who fears being left behind as prices soar. But bubble traders must be patient and wait months for the bottom, or be skilled enough to swing trade.

jmw74

full member

Activity: 236

Merit: 100

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2013, 11:57:37 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on April 22, 2013, 08:40:38 PM

you do have a small risk to be left behind if the price would not go below $50 or even $100. It's a small risk, but a risk.

I regard this "risk" of never going down as so large - I am willing to write you $115 puts for surprisingly cheap!

This would allow you to buy in to bitcoins with much larger percentage of your fiat stash now, since you would only lose the premium if the price goes up. (In your scenario, you are fully exposed if sudden upward moves happen.)

If it goes down to $50, you get to sell your bitcoins to me for $115, and buy back a much larger number at $50.

All you will lose if anything happens, is the premium. If you are willing to "go short" with bitcoin (i.e. being long-term bullish but willing to invest less than 100% of the position at any particular time), would this not be a great improvement?

I think all RationalSpeculator wanted is a limit order on the exchange for $50. Your put offer is totally different. To win a bet against you, the price would have to be low in 6 months. But all it takes is a momentary dip (that have happened many times) to be able to buy in cheap.

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Quote from: gizmoh on April 23, 2013, 11:25:42 AM

@slipperyslope:

Did you factor in the fact that a large proportion of fiat have been accumulated (on sold btc) in accounts at mtgox, expecting a crash and waiting to buy back 'cheaper', hence creating pressure on the bid sums and eventually reducing possible crash to corrections.

Ah yes! Indeed back in 2011 lots of cash I believe remained at Mt.Gox even after it was hacked. It took all the way from June 8, 2011 to November 14 that year, to wring the last fiat out of the most reluctant buyer. That is a bubble collapse and that is the sort of thing that I expect to happen this time - based upon speculative financial bubble theory and what we learned from Bitcoin Bubble 1.

Regarding corrections, I am preparing a post addressing that timely point.

Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 11. (Read 24795 times)