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Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 6. (Read 24785 times)

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
27 days after the April 11 peak

Prices have been generally falling the last two weeks.

Here is the primary bubble collapse trendline, suggested by the peak of the retracement from $80. The trend would be significantly strengthened if a low below $80 occurs, in particular if the new low touched a roughly parallel support line that passes through $80.

What witchcraft is this? Your support trendline is based on one day's low.

So sorry, the support line is a hypothesis dependent upon the strength of the identified declining resistance line. I draw it to give me more data from which to place the spread of buy limit orders that get triggered if and when the bubble collapses further.
sr. member
Activity: 329
Merit: 250
LTC -> BTC -> Silver!
27 days after the April 11 peak

Prices have been generally falling the last two weeks.

Here is the primary bubble collapse trendline, suggested by the peak of the retracement from $80. The trend would be significantly strengthened if a low below $80 occurs, in particular if the new low touched a roughly parallel support line that passes through $80.

What witchcraft is this? Your support trendline is based on one day's low.
member
Activity: 88
Merit: 10
I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

I suppose, that by "fiat-denominated hands" he means people who still naively believe that real value lies in fiat, not in Bitcoin.

I'm not that optimistic as Mr Pietilla, but even I agree that BTC is better than fiat.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
27 days after the April 11 peak

Prices have been generally falling the last two weeks.

Here is the primary bubble collapse trendline, suggested by the peak of the retracement from $80. The trend would be significantly strengthened if a low below $80 occurs, in particular if the new low touched a roughly parallel support line that passes through $80.





legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
Quote
The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible.

+1

That's it.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Quote
The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible.

+1
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
I'm sure people will start referencing their BTC to fiat once the price begins to surge. I'ts just a wild dream now, but when BTC is 6 figures the urge will be hard to curb  Grin

Right Cheesy

I see this happening with all bugs, goldbugs, real estate bugs, stock bugs, and bitbugs, 'what will matter is how many houses/stocks/bitcoins/gold you have'.

This kind of reasoning leads to very poor risk management, great profits in a bubble, and disastrous loses once it bursts.

I also have yet to meet the first bug that recognized his/her arguments were false, even after they lost a fortune. 

You make a very good point.  And I say that as someone who tries to pick up a few Bitcoin every day trading.

Thanks! Smiley
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
There may (read: will) be more bubbles. But if BTC crashes from the 1000s I think it will be hard-pressed to see 100 again. I think an investment now is fairly safe, and with the potential for growth I think the risk is definitely merited. A catastrophic shortcoming in BTCs framework is really the only thing that scares me now. Even a government ban could not destroy BTC (though it would certainly damage it).

I think also as more investors jump on board we are going to see a push towards less speculation. Especially if there is another crash people should realize that the long-term vitality of BTC depends on its institutionalization. Once we get out of this sort of "golden period" of cheap BTC investors are going to turn their attention away from accumulating cheap BTC to protecting that investment. I think this recent news that the CFTC is thinking about regulating BTC could help a lot with that.

As they said "it's not Monopoly money". I think that is a really telling statement right there. It's a nice silent nod towards the legitimacy and potential of BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
I'm sure people will start referencing their BTC to fiat once the price begins to surge. I'ts just a wild dream now, but when BTC is 6 figures the urge will be hard to curb  Grin

Right Cheesy

I see this happening with all bugs, goldbugs, real estate bugs, stock bugs, and bitbugs, 'what will matter is how many houses/stocks/bitcoins/gold you have'.

This kind of reasoning leads to very poor risk management, great profits in a bubble, and disastrous loses once it bursts.

I also have yet to meet the first bug that recognized his/her arguments were false, even after they lost a fortune. 

You make a very good point.  And I say that as someone who tries to pick up a few Bitcoin every day trading.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
I'm sure people will start referencing their BTC to fiat once the price begins to surge. I'ts just a wild dream now, but when BTC is 6 figures the urge will be hard to curb  Grin

Right Cheesy

I see this happening with all bugs, goldbugs, real estate bugs, stock bugs, and bitbugs, 'what will matter is how many houses/stocks/bitcoins/gold you have'.

This kind of reasoning leads to very poor risk management, great profits in a bubble, and disastrous loses once it bursts.

I also have yet to meet the first bug that recognized his/her arguments were false, even after they lost a fortune. 
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
I'm sure people will start referencing their BTC to fiat once the price begins to surge. I'ts just a wild dream now, but when BTC is 6 figures the urge will be hard to curb  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

He means that he counts it as a good day if he ends up with more Bitcoin than he started with even if the dollar value of his Bitcoin holding has fallen.

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible.  

I perfectly understand it. I care about my BTC position - I really don't care that much about USD/BTC exchange rate. I follow it just to decide when I should buy more, so I can get the best amount of BTC from my limited fiat. But at the end of the day, when I look at my BTC stash, I never say "wow, my $10,000 investment now is worth $100,000". I almost never multiply my stash of BTC x the exchange rate, I just look at the amount of BTC.

It's obvious to me that this is not the case for 99% of people, which think about their BTC stash in fiat terms.

It's poor bookkeeping to value an asset in it's own reference, and not in a common market value reference, understood my all, and pretty stable in value, ie: fiat.


bitbug: I own 1 house, 1 gold bar, 100 stocks of microsoft, and 200 bitcoins. That's my wealth!

sceptic: Sure, but what's the value?

bitbug: Well, my reference is bitcoins, so let me calculate, that would be 2000 bitcoins!

sceptic:  Huh and what's the value of bitcoins?

bitbug: let me check, $100 dollars; so the value is $200.000

sceptic: thanks, so what has been the performance of your portfolio? Did you make good investment decisions?

bitbug: well, actually my portfolio used to be worth 10 000 bitcoins last year, and only 2000 bitcoins today, so I lost 8000 bitcoins Sad

sceptic: I'm so sorry, such a big loss. What did you learn from your investment mistakes?

bitbug: that I should go all-in in bitcoins!

sceptic: something in your logic seems to be wrong as it leads to conclusions that make no sense from a risk management perspective.

bitbug: (please do not avoid the argument / claim untruths about risk / express truths about bitcoin that have no relation to the discussion)
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

He means that he counts it as a good day if he ends up with more Bitcoin than he started with even if the dollar value of his Bitcoin holding has fallen.

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible. 

I perfectly understand it. I care about my BTC position - I really don't care that much about USD/BTC exchange rate. I follow it just to decide when I should buy more, so I can get the best amount of BTC from my limited fiat. But at the end of the day, when I look at my BTC stash, I never say "wow, my $10,000 investment now is worth $100,000". I almost never multiply my stash of BTC x the exchange rate, I just look at the amount of BTC.

It's obvious to me that this is not the case for 99% of people, which think about their BTC stash in fiat terms.

Agreed :-)
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

He means that he counts it as a good day if he ends up with more Bitcoin than he started with even if the dollar value of his Bitcoin holding has fallen.

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible. 

I perfectly understand it. I care about my BTC position - I really don't care that much about USD/BTC exchange rate. I follow it just to decide when I should buy more, so I can get the best amount of BTC from my limited fiat. But at the end of the day, when I look at my BTC stash, I never say "wow, my $10,000 investment now is worth $100,000". I almost never multiply my stash of BTC x the exchange rate, I just look at the amount of BTC.

It's obvious to me that this is not the case for 99% of people, which think about their BTC stash in fiat terms.
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

He means that he counts it as a good day if he ends up with more Bitcoin than he started with even if the dollar value of his Bitcoin holding has fallen.

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible. 

If that explanation is right then that's great, I feel exactly the same. I much rather have cheap coins ( to buy) then the price go to  1000$ today. But that is because I don't have the quantity of coins that rpietila has ( partial reason in my sig..) and I'm not as confident as him  with his 100K and up per coin in the short term ( "end of the year...." )

Also I don't want to beat Carlos slim or any multi millionaire( or billionaire) , just want to have a reasonably comfortable life with less monetary worries... Wink
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

He means that he counts it as a good day if he ends up with more Bitcoin than he started with even if the dollar value of his Bitcoin holding has fallen.

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible. 
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

Sorry I have work about 2-3 hours. Get back to you..
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
If we do not breach 95, we have a bullish pattern. If we do breach it, then we will go sub-79.

If we do not breach 66, then we are heading up. If we do breach it, then we crash to 50.

If 50 holds, it is very bullish. If not, I am puzzled. 50 is the line of defence that should hold.

Conclusion: everything that can realistically happen is bullish now. Only "problem" is that if you buy at 100 and you could have bought next week at 50, you net half the amount of coins + feel stupid in the process.

Who cares if  a coin will be worth 1M $ ?  Wink

Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.
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