Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 8. (Read 24795 times)

23 days after the April 10 peak



I believe that we are in the third day of the Great Capitulation of 2013. Recall that the corresponding capitulation back in 2011 dropped 55% from $13 to $6 during a six-day fall to the bottom of that capitulation.

The region between $110 and $60, I have dubbed the Bagholder's Ball, as nearly all the bitcoin purchases on Mt. Gox from April 1 to May 2 are nominal losers below $110 - and will be strongly motivated to sell.

The comparable capitulation from the first bubble was six days start-to-bottom. We are only two days into this one.

that chart has us forecast straight to $0 in 6 hrs.

Just remember, only about 1.5M bitcoins are in speculative (fiat-denominated) hands anyway. Even today I managed to sell about BTC150 to my clients. That is 1/10000 of all speculative position of the world combined.

I think bitcoin is going up.

Right! Its easy, and only six confirmations away, to move bitcoin from some big-money wallet into Mt. Gox for sale. Harder and slower to get fiat in for purchase.

What surprises me is that there was no real peak before this current crash. Prices were pretty much level for a long time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_holidays_in_Japan#Holidays_in_2013

All those holidays won't help with stopping the current trend either.

22 days after the April 10 peak



I believe that this is the second day of the first and greatest capitulation of Bitcoin Bubble 2.

$110 marks the upper limit of what I have dubbed 'The Bagholder's Ball'. Below this point, a very substantial portion of all April - May bitcoin purchases show a nominal loss. Consequently, trading bitcoin holders sell out according to their respective degrees of temporal risk acceptance - and the last ones to sell, well - they lose the most.

Commendable - and a great example for your clients.

After this bubble collapse is fully played out, I too, would like to consider writing options, but on MPOE via CoinBr. There is more liquidity on an exchange as contrasted to OTC, of course.

Well, I'd get those puts. I think they are reasonable priced now. Still interested?

I have managed to increase my family wealth by 41% APR, over the course of 10 years. Of course that is not perfect, but I can't recall many who have done as well. Except now in bitcoin, you just went all in and never sold. But can you introduce me a to a person who actually has done it. There are not so many of them.

First 6 years of my investment career I was making a constant loss. (It's not included in the 10 years that I made a profit )
I think if you likewise have started daytrading or whatever after 2008, chances are that you also make loss even until now, since it takes time to actually understand markets.

Reading my short term projections (even if you do 24/7 like I do) only gives you about 52-55% hit rate. It is high enough to (who did the math in the first paragraph?) increase your wealth by a factor of 30 in ten years, but low enough to not do it in ten months, weeks, days, or hours, which many seem to want to put in my mouth.

If you want to make 30x your initial investment, buy bitcoins, and do not trade or sell them. I believe by October 31st, this year, you have it. This is my actual advice. It takes 10 sockpuppets created in March/April 2013, to try to derail the forum into believing something else.

If you want, I can still write you puts for $115 and I only ask BTC0.25 premium (expire 30JUN2013). If it goes below $90, you gain, if it stays $90-$115, you may recoup partly if you bail out, if it goes to $115 and stays there, you only lose the premium of 25%.

But this is a put option, not a fiat bet. In order to profit, you must sell me the bitcoins. Hint: nobody has ever taken my puts even though they are reasonably priced. The pros know that they just lose bitcoins to me cheaply if they take them and exercise them (and pay me for the privilege). The noobs can easily list 10 words in this single post on mine, which they don't understand, and therefore call herpderp.

I like you taking responsibility and able to correct yourself

I enjoy very much your analyses. Thank you so much

The corresponding capitulation in bitcoin bubble 1 had two equally sized downward legs over a three day period. If this one goes into three days then I expect it also will have a second leg down - which is indicated as a likely completion of the illustrated triangle pattern.

Thank you very much, I appreciate it.

I will stop cross posting now that you have mentioned it. And I am sorry that it wasted your time.

the people dumb enough to sell at these prices are the people who are going to be kicking themselves a few months down the road.

Are you posting the same thing in multiple threads? 

Tickets Purchased for the Bagholder's Ball.



There is now a mighty mass of bitcoins purchased since April 1 above current levels and yet unsold. Back in August 2011, the first and greatest capitulation of that bubble had two legs, dropping over three days. I believe the situation permits a breather at ~115 for a day, then another deep plunge - to the extent that a single carefully selected instance from 2011 serves to model all such bitcoin bubbles.

Rpietila revealed in another post that because he manages bitcoin investments on behalf of clients, one should not take what he says publicly for what he takes to heart.

didn't you just say we weren't going to see $115 ever again?